1H24 Financial Results
The global economy
Economic growth to slow before easing cycle commences
Lower inflation opens the door to interest rate cuts¹
Core inflation (annual change)
Official interest rates at peak, rate cuts middle 20241
Official interest rates
World economic growth to expand modestly²
World economic growth estimates (annual change)
%
%
%
10
0 8 6 4 202
4
NZ
International
Monetary Fund
Australia
6
US
Consensus
UK
NZ
5
UK
3
CBA
4
Eurozone
US
Japan
3
2
2
Australia
1
1
-2
0
Japan
0
-4
-1
Eurozone
2024
2025
Dec 18
Dec 19
Dec 20
Dec 21
Dec 22
Dec 23
Dec 18
Dec 19
Dec 20
Dec 21
Dec 22
Dec 23
Labour markets resilient¹
Unemployment rate
Freight costs, supply chains lower but risks linger³
Supply chains pressures and freight costs
Fiscal policy impacting economic outcomes¹
Budget position as a % GDP
%
st dev
$40ft box
%
14
5
12
4
World container freight benchmark (RHS) 12000
New York Fed global 10000
10
5
10
3
Australia
US
8
supply chain pressure
index (LHS)
Germany
Australia
8000
0
2
6
UK
6000
-5
1
4000
-10
UK
US
42
NZ
0
-1
2000
-15
Japan
0
-2
0
-20
Dec 15
Dec 17
Dec 19
Dec 21
Dec 23
Dec 18 Dec 19 Dec 20
Dec 21
Dec 22
Dec 23
Dec 00
Dec 05
Dec 10
Dec 15
Dec 20
1. Source: Bloomberg, CBA. 2. Source: CBA, Bloomberg, BoJ. 3. Source: NY Fed, Bloomberg.
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