2021 Investor Presentation

Made public by

sourced by PitchSend

18 of 21

Category

Energy

Published

November 2021

Slides

Transcriptions

#1Meridian. 2021 Investor Presentation MEMBER OF Dow Jones Sustainability Indices In Collaboration with RobecoSAM NOVEMBER 2021#2New Zealand electricity market NOVEMBER 2021 2021 INVESTOR PRESENTATION 2#3New Zealand electricity market A reliable, affordable and environmentally sustainable electricity system A well functioning competitive market with high level of renewable resources and rational competition Vertical integration is the prevailing market structure Wholesale and retail market regulation provided by an independent regulator - The Electricity Authority (EA) EA's mandate is to deliver efficient market operation, security of supply, promote competition No price controls, the non-competitive transmission and distribution sectors have regulated rates of return Meridian. NOVEMBER 2021 2021 INVESTOR PRESENTATION 3#4New Zealand electricity market Generators Industrial users Distribution 5 major generators (all listed, 3 majority Govt owned) 1 big industrial user (Rio Tinto/Sumitomo smelter), ~13% of national demand Annual consumption 2% Transmission Substations 1 transmission grid owner (state owned) 29 distribution businesses (various ownership structures) Sources: Electricity Authority and Ministry of Business, Innovation and Employment 35% 7% Meridian. (June 2021) Residential Commercial 32% Agriculture Industrial Other 24% Agriculture includes forestry and fishing Retailers 44 retail brands Annual generation 13% 8% 0% 6% 1% 1% 18% Businesses (June 2021) Households 2.1 million consumers (41 TWh pa) Hydro ■Geothermal ■Biogas Wood 53% Wind ■Solar ■ Oil Coal Gas Waste Heat NOVEMBER 2021 2021 INVESTOR PRESENTATION 4#5New Zealand electricity market ■ New Zealand's hydro generation is managed against limited controlled storage Bulk of hydro inflow is anti-correlated to winter demand peak Thermal capacity and fuel storage has historically managed potential hydro inflow deficit and other renewable intermittency Efficient and well-functioning wholesale market manages this supply risk Significant oversupply had existed in the market, older thermal plant closure has brought better balance Demand growth in the last decade has been modest, strong outlook from decarbonisation $2b of new renewable builds are being progressed Meridian. NOVEMBER 2021 2021 INVESTOR PRESENTATION 5#6Possible future market outcomes Existing generation plant retirement (~3GW) will drive significant new investment Coupled with significant demand growth (decarbonisation), could see 8-10GW+ built by 2050 Renewable costs will continue to decline Renewable generation reaches 95%+ Consumer will play a bigger role in markets Flexibility will be critical to solving NZ's dry year risk Demand response solutions with some gas capacity can achieve a balanced outcome Long-term system prices approach pre 2018 gas stress levels, higher price volatility from greater prevalence of wind and solar Meridian. New generation capacity to 2050 4,000 Installed generation [MW] 3,000 2,000 1,000 -1,000 -2,000 Evo Revo Evo Revo Evo Revo Evo Revo Evo Geothermal Solar (Grid) Wind Hydro Revo Evo FY2041-50 FY2031-40 FY2021-30 Revo Evo Revo Evo Revo Thermal Solar (Roof) Retired Retired Thermal Renewables Meridian modelling using two scenarios (both assume 2024 NZAS exit): 1. Evolution - modest decarbonisation and ETS pricing, steady demand-side technology growth, thermal peaking 2. Revolution - high decarbonisation and ETS pricing, strong demand-side technology growth, thermal retirement, dispatchable demand Source: Meridian NOVEMBER 2021 2021 INVESTOR PRESENTATION 6#7New Zealand policy and regulation ◉ Current Electricity Authority (EA) focus Implemented new trading conduct provisions, in effect on 30 June 2021 Published a review of wholesale market competition in the wholesale market for the period 2018 to early 2021: Confirms that high wholesale electricity prices over the last three years, reflect tight supply and demand conditions, and natural gas scarcity for electricity generation In Meridian's view, included erroneous modelling and incorrect speculation on the nature of the NZAS contract and market response and impacts from a potential closure of the smelter Consultation to December 2021, then possibly again on potential code changes 9 August 2021 power outage reviews Initial EA review (complete) with recommendations to address issues found with Transpower's communication and load management processes A second, broader EA review (now underway) of all roles in the sector, including generators The EA considering a claim lodged by Electric Kiwi and Haast Energy Trading that Genesis and Contact breached the new trading conduct provisions of the Code The EA investigating whether the events of 9 August 2021 constituted an undesirable trading situation A wide-ranging review by MBIE on instruction from the Minister of Energy Meridian. NOVEMBER 2021 2021 INVESTOR PRESENTATION 7#82019 4 Years 2022-2025 5 Years 2026-2030 5 Years 2031-2035 New Zealand policy and regulation Climate Change Commission Final Advice Released in June 2021, final advice on 2022-35 emissions budgets Proposes deeper emissions cuts in first two budget periods than earlier draft advice Recommends major expansion in the electricity system needs to start immediately Considers replacing 100% renewable electricity target with achieving 95%- 98% by 2030, with gas to provide flexibility until at least 2035 Government has until May 2022 to set the first three emissions budgets out to 2035 and release the country's first emissions reduction plan with detailed policies Following the draft final advice, Government has introduced a Clean Car Discount effective 1 July 2021 And have raised the cost containment reserve price in the ETS from $50 to $70 and the price floor from $20 to $30 (both from 2022 onwards with 10%/5% plus inflation annual increases thereafter) And started consultation on reforms to the industrial allocation in the Emissions Trading Scheme (ETS) Energy, industry and buildings Transport Land Waste and F-gases CO₂e 78 Mt 72.4 Mt 62.4 Mt 50.6 Mt Per Year Per Year Per Year Per Year Budget 3 Phase out imports Budget 1 Budget 2 Lower- emissions Accelerate uptake of electric and zero- emissions cars, buses and trucks Improve efficiency of vehicles and freight movement of internal vehicles Reducing vehicle trips combustion engine light vehicles Encourage switching to walking, cycling and public transport Reduce demand for travel, for example through smart urban development and increased working from home Increase use of rail and coastal shipping for freight Aviation and shipping Improve efficiency Buildings Start electrifying ferries and coastal shipping Increase use of biofuels Start electrifying short-haul flights Start phasing out existing fossil gas Low carbon liquid fuels No new fossil gas heating systems installed after 2025 Improve thermal efficiency Phase out Transmission and distribution grid upgrades use in buildings Achieve -95% renewable generation Electricity fossil base-load generation Agriculture Expand renewable generation Adopt low- emissions Adopt low- practices on-farm emissions breeding for sheep Industrial process heat Native forests Replace coal with biomass and electricity Ramp up establishing new native forests Average 25,000 ha per year of new exotic forests Replace fossil gas with biomass and electricity Encourage new low biogenic methane technologies to be adopted when available Establish 25,000 ha per year Exotic forests Waste F-gases Divert organic waste from landfill Improve and extend landfill gas capture Increase end-of-life recovery of F-gases Ramp down planting new exotic forests for carbon storage Meridian. NOVEMBER 2021 Source: He Pou a Rangi Climate Change Commission 2021 INVESTOR PRESENTATION 8#9Meridian's NZ transmission costs $M Meridian actual 116 Meridian actual 120 100 82 80 60 40 20 0 FY20 actual FY21 actual New Zealand policy and regulation Transmission Pricing Methodology (TPM) EA published final TPM guidelines in June 2020 Replaces current HVDC and RCPD charges with benefit-based and residual charges Transpower released its proposed new TPM in August 2021 EA currently consulting on the full proposed TPM With the aim for a new TPM to take effect for prices from 1 April 2023 Trustpower's judicial review was heard in the High Court in October 2021, decision has been reserved 140 Meridian. Transpower estimate assuming 1 April 2023 implementation 67 new TPM (FY24) Source: Meridian, Transpower NOVEMBER 2021 2021 INVESTOR PRESENTATION 6#10New Zealand Aluminium Smelter (Tiwai Point) 14 Jan 2021 Revised NZAS contract 400MW 172MW 1 Jan 2022 1 Jan 2023 1 Jan 2024 31 Dec 2024 no termination right (except terminal force majeure) NZAS termination right with 6 months notice (terminal FM also applies) USD LME prices and 12 month forward forecasts Existing 4th potline contract (currently suspended) 50MW 3,400 3,200 2 month termination right 3,000 NZAS Rio 2,800 Strategic terminate 2,600 Review (Oct 19) NZAS contract 31 Jan 22 current suspension period ends NZAS 目 contract agreed revised 2,400 2,200 1 Feb 22 - 31 Mar 21 recommencement notice permitted 2,000 1 Apr 22 - 31 Dec 22 recommencement/extended suspension 31 Dec 22 contract ends 1,800 1,600 1,400 Meridian. 572MW CfD exit contract with Meridian terminating 31 December 2024 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 20 21 21 21 21 21 21 21 21 21 21 21 21 22 22 22 22 22 22 22 22 22 actual price forecast Jan 20 forecast jun 20 forecast Jan 21 forecast Jul 21 forecast Nov 21 Source: Meridian, HARBOR Aluminium NOVEMBER 2021 2021 INVESTOR PRESENTATION 10#11Meridian Energy NOVEMBER 2021 2021 INVESTOR PRESENTATION#12About Meridian NZ$12b company, one of NZ's largest listed company, 51% Government owned Largest of five listed New Zealand retailer generators Strong environmental, social and governance focus 40% of New Zealand generation covered by a price guarantee contract with Rio Tinto/Sumitomo's New Zealand aluminium smelter, ending 31 December 2024 GENERATION ASSETS HYDRO STATION AUCKLAND WIND FARM WAITAKI HYDRO SCHEME WEST WIND OFFICES MERIDIAN BROOKLYN POWERSHOP 355k electricity customer connections CHRISTCHURCH WHITE HILL MANAPOURI TE UKU BENMORE WAITAKI Meridian. HARAPAKI (construction) 144k electricity customer connections 46k gas customer connections MT MILLAR MT MERCER KEEPIT BURRINJUCK HUME MELBOURNE TE ĀPITI MILL CREEK MASTERTON WELLINGTON ŌHAU A TWIZEL ŌHAU B ŌHAU C AVIEMORE NOVEMBER 2021 2021 INVESTOR PRESENTATION 12#13About Meridian New Zealand's largest generator, all production from renewable sources Seven big hydro stations - flexible plant with the country's largest storage With low operating costs and capital needs Five New Zealand wind farms and proven success operating in a high wind environment Backed with more than a decade of construction and operational experience Typical long generation position to manage variable hydro inflows ■ Vertically integrated Australian business currently under ownership review Meridian. NOVEMBER 2021 2021 INVESTOR PRESENTATION 13#14Sustainability at Meridian Environmental Action on climate change Our Material Topics Social Electricity pricing 2030 emissions target (scope 1-3) tCO2e Governance 47,279 actual Sustainability leadership 50,000 44,359 Pipeline of generation options Support for vulnerable customers Good governance, ethical behaviour and reporting 40,000 Impact on water Impact on biodiversity Distributed energy resources Contribution to public policy 32,475 30,000 Financial impacts of climate change 20,000 Cyber security Net Zero Carbon In FY21 10,000 across group emissions -target Halving 2019 emissions by 2030 Climate Change Commission report released Launched Process Heat Electrification Programme Harapaki wind farm construction commenced Launched AC charging network 60,000 stems planted under Forever Forest programme Launched Future of Work initiative Issued our first Modern Slavery Statement Issued our second TCFD Report sets policy direction for electrification 157 GWh in MOU's, 14 GWh contracted clean energy for 70,000 homes 20 of 250 chargers installed 1.5 million trees in 5 years for carbon offset help future proof our workforce our commitment to our workforce and our supply chain our climate risks and opportunities 0 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 Financial Year ended 30 June demand reduction from Tiwai closure Our three priority risks market supply disruption from a disorderly transition to 100% renewables Source: Meridian changes in public policy lead to changes to legislation or regulation Meridian. NOVEMBER 2021 2021 INVESTOR PRESENTATION 14#15Social focus Local communities Iwi Long term relationships, community relationship managers $9M of local project support over 14 years Recognise the mana whenua of Ngāi Tahu Close association with local rūnaka Focus on strengthening our iwi partnerships KidsCan $1M annual contribution towards supporting under-privileged children Kākāpō Recovery Programme Cornerstone partnership with the Department of Conservation Meridian. In 2021 Meridian issued its first Modern Slavery Statement NOVEMBER 2021 2021 INVESTOR PRESENTATION 15#16Our strategy 5-year targets Strategic initiatives Champion Competitive markets Sustainability Climate action Grow a clear sustainability leadership position Optimise Trading & asset management Re-consenting Financing Use our 5,000 GWh renewable opportunity to fast-track NZ's decarbonisation Grow Retail Generation Flux NZ's highest customer satisfaction NZ's largest and fastest growing retailer MEA under ownership review 3 buildable options by 2024 Triple Aus FY20 customer numbers 3 million ICP's on Flux Current position A resilient wellbeing and safety culture 5th in Colmar Brunton Better Futures Report Powershop market leading customer satisfaction, Meridian a leading gentailer NZ largest fixed price retailer 1,500 GWh new demand opportunities identified 1.9GW of sites/opportunities 92% positive staff wellbeing and safety sentiment, deteriorating injury frequency rates Meridian. NOVEMBER 2021 2021 INVESTOR PRESENTATION 16 7% growth in Aus customer numbers 500,000 ICP's on Flux#17NZAS exit response NZAS contract 14 Jan 2021 May 21 Nov 21 1 Jan 1 Jan 1 Jan 2022 2023 2024 investor day Meridian portfolio response Current swaption CUWLP NI battery exploring options options discussions on schedule 1,180 MW capacity completion review of sites site acquisition design & consents construction NTP go live Process heat 31 GWh in MOU's 237 GWh MOU's or contract Data centre review of sites subsea cable announced site acquisition design & consents Green hydrogen Meridian. ECCA funded projects 1 ECCA funded projects 2 ECCA funded projects 3 tranche 1 construction, cable laying Feasibility ROI closed preferred respondents fast tracked or form development consortium business model resolved FID tbc 31 Dec 2024 600 GWh contracted tranche 2 construction NOVEMBER 2021 2021 INVESTOR PRESENTATION 17#18Shareholder highlights Double digit shareholder returns every year since listing Total shareholder return 80% Sustained earnings through that period 60% High free cash flow, high payout ratio, stable ordinary dividend 40% 20% Balance sheet headroom to fund potentially significant future decarbonisation growth 20% 0% 2014 EBITDAF $M 854 838 900 800 729 650 657 666 700 618 585 600 500 400 11 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 Financial Year ended 30 June Source: Meridian Meridian. 60% 36% 33% 19% 15% 12% 10% 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 Financial Year ended 30 June Source: Meridian NOVEMBER 2021 2021 INVESTOR PRESENTATION 18#19Investment proposition balance sheet headroom stable strong free cash flow income ordinary DPS continued Meridian. cost discipline low capital needs high free cash flow payout long term sustainable business Flux customer growth in NZ growth potential Australian business sale retail platform changes medium term new generation NOVEMBER 2021 2021 INVESTOR PRESENTATION 19#20Disclaimer The information in this presentation was prepared by Meridian Energy with due care and attention. However, the information is supplied in summary form and is therefore not necessarily complete, and no representation is made as to the accuracy, completeness or reliability of the information. In addition, neither the company nor any of its directors, employees, shareholders nor any other person shall have liability whatsoever to any person for any loss (including, without limitation, arising from any fault or negligence) arising from this presentation or any information supplied in connection with it. This presentation may contain forward-looking statements and projections. These reflect Meridian's current expectations, based on what it thinks are reasonable assumptions. Meridian gives no warranty or representation as to its future financial performance or any future matter. Except as required by law or NZX or ASX listing rules, Meridian is not obliged to update this presentation after its release, even if things change materially. This presentation does not constitute financial advice. Further, this presentation is not and should not be construed as an offer to sell or a solicitation of an offer to buy Meridian Energy securities and may not be relied upon in connection with any purchase of Meridian Energy securities. This presentation contains a number of non-GAAP financial measures, including Energy Margin, EBITDAF, Underlying NPAT and gearing. Because they are not defined by GAAP or IFRS, Meridian's calculation of these measures may differ from similarly titled measures presented by other companies and they should not be considered in isolation from, or construed as an alternative to, other financial measures determined in accordance with GAAP. Although Meridian believes they provide useful information in measuring the financial performance and condition of Meridian's business, readers are cautioned not to place undue reliance on these non-GAAP financial measures. The information contained in this presentation should be considered in conjunction with the company's financial statements, which are included in Meridian's integrated report for the year ended 30 June 2021 and is available at: www.meridianenergy.co.nz/investors All currency amounts are in New Zealand dollars unless stated otherwise. Meridian. NOVEMBER 2021 2021 INVESTOR PRESENTATION 20

Download to PowerPoint

Download presentation as an editable powerpoint.

Related

Q3 2020 Investor Presentation image

Q3 2020 Investor Presentation

Energy

New Fortress Energy Q3 2023 Investor Presentation image

New Fortress Energy Q3 2023 Investor Presentation

Energy

Helix Energy Solutions Company Update image

Helix Energy Solutions Company Update

Energy

2nd Quarter 2020 Investor Update image

2nd Quarter 2020 Investor Update

Energy

Helix Energy Solutions 2006 Annual Report image

Helix Energy Solutions 2006 Annual Report

Energy

Investor Presentation image

Investor Presentation

Energy

Investor Presentation image

Investor Presentation

Energy

Premium Rock, Returns, Runway 3Q 2022 Earnings image

Premium Rock, Returns, Runway 3Q 2022 Earnings

Energy