China's Growth Opportunities and Offshore Investing

Made public by

J.P. Morgan Asset Management

sourced by PitchSend

29 of 49

Creator

J.P. Morgan Asset Management

Category

Financial

Published

June 2022

Slides

Transcriptions

#1* EDELWEISS MUTUAL FUND Edelweiss Greater China Equity Offshore Fund An open-ended fund of fund scheme investing in JPMorgan Funds Greater China Fund - Mar 2023 康 1#2Evolution of China's Economy China is poised to overtake the US to become the largest economy in this decade GDP size of China and U.S. GDP size, billions, current prices, U.S. dollars Real GDP per capita and urbanization ratios Constant prices, U.S. dollars, 1960 - 2030** $40,000 $35,000 China GDP ranking China contribution to global Decade growth 1980s 8 1% 1990s B 21% $30,000 2000s 5 15% 2010s 2 32% $25,000 2020s 2 28% 2031 1 30% $20,000 $15,000 $10,000 $5,000 Forecast" Real GDP per Capita $70,000 $60,000 $50,000 2030 2020 $40,000 U.S. $30,000 $20,000 $10,000 China India $0 $0 15 '80 '83 '86 '89 '92 '95 '98 '01 '04 '07 '10 '13 '16 '19 '22 '25 '28 '31 2030 South Korea 2020 35 55 Urbanization Ratio 75 95 Source: JP Morgan Asset Management estimate. Forecasts are based on JPM Long Term Market Assumptions. Forecasts, Projections and other forward-looking statements are based upon current belief & practices. They are for illustration purpose only. * 2#3Five-Year Plans China's GDP per capita vs. Five Year Plans (FYP) Nominal, U.S. dollars $18,000 ! 12th FYP: $16,000 $14,000 $12,000 $10,000 $8,000 10th FYP: $6,000 $4,000 7% GDP growth Boost international competitiveness Balance external position Quantitative targets || Rebalance to consumption from investment Shift coastal cities from manufacturing to R&D and services Expand highways and highspeed railways 11th FYP: - 7.5% annual GDP growth I Increase services' Prudent monetary | share in GDP and 1 policy and curb employment housing prices Create 45mn jobs ! 13th FYP: | Innovation Environment Supranational Reform one-child policy New urbanization Forecast* 14th FYP: Expand domestic demand while keeping development of external sectors Improve self- sufficiency of key technologies and products Promote common prosperity Environmental protection * $2,000 $0 '00 '01 '02 '03 '04 '05 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18 '19 '20 '21 '22 23 24 25 Source: CEIC, IMF-World Economic Outlook, J.P. Morgan Asset Management. Forecasts, Projections and other forward-looking statements are based upon current beliefs and expectations, They are for illustrative purposes only and serve as an indication what may occur. Given the inherent uncertainties and risks associated with forecast, projections or other forward statements, actual events, results or performance may differ materially from those reflected or contemplated. *Nominal GDP per capita forecast from the IMF. *#4Technological Progress Patent applications # of patent filings* at World Intellectual Property Org., 1996-2020 80,000 Research and development Expenditures as % of GDP, 1996-2018 4% United States Japan 70,000 +Germany China 60,000 50,000 40,000 30,000 20,000 10,000 3% 2% 1% 0% '96 '01 '06 11 16 "96 '01 '06 Source: J.P. Morgan Asset Management; (Left) Wind, World Intellectual Property Organization; (Right) World Bank. *Patent filings include Patent Cooperation Treaty provides international patent protection. Guide to China. Data are as of July 31, 2021. United States -Japan -Germany ⚫China 11 '16 Source: J.P. Morgan Asset Management; (Left) Wind, World Intellectual Property organization; (Right) World Bank, *Patent filings include Patent Corporation Treaty provides international patent protection. *#5The Emergence of the Middle Class Growth of the middle class % of total population 100% 80% 60% 40% 21% 20% 79% 4% 30% 1995 2020F 2030F 41% 41% 72% 30% 61% 55% Regional contribution middle class growth: 2020 to 2030 Millions of people 1,800 32 10 -3 1,600 57 80 79% 1,400 Rest of Asia, 133 73% 1,200 China, 453 1,000 800 40% 600 India, 400 883 1% 0% 0% India Indonesia China Brazil Mexico Source: Brookings Institution, J.P. Morgan Asset Management 200 0 Asia Pacific Sub-Saharan Africa Middle East and North Africa Central and North America South America Europe * 5#6Chinese Consumer & Habits Contribution to global consumption growth Household consumption, constant U.S. dollars 100% 90% ■China ■ U.S. ■Europe ■Rest of world China's contribution to global spending on luxury goods Chinese consumers, % of total, both domestic and overseas spending 50% 40% 30% 26% 19% 20% 42% 10% 0% 2012 80% 39% 50% 70% 58% 15% 60% 35% 32% 2018 2020 40% 2025F* 18% 50% 11% China's Singles' Day vs. U.S. holiday sales Gross merchandise value, U.S. dollar, billions $90 ■Prime Day 13% 40% 36% 7% ■Cyber Monday $84.5 $74.1 $75 25% ■Black Friday 30% 16% 35% 26% 20% $60 ■Thanksgiving Sat. & Sun. ■China Singles" day $44.8 $45 $38.4 $40.0 $35.7 $14.5 $28.5 $30.8 $9.2 $30 $11.6 23% 10% 22% 20% $9.0 $8.9 $10.2 $7.4 10% 8% $15 $6.2 $10.8 $10.7 $9.4 0% $7.9 $7.2 $10.4 $11.2 2000 2005 2010 2015 2019 $0 $4.2 2018 2019 2020 2021 * Source: (Left) World Bank; (Top right) McKinsey & Company "China Luxury Report 2019"; (Bottom right) Alibaba, Adobe Analytics, Amazon; J.P. Morgan Asset Management. Forecasts, projections and other forward-looking statements are based upon current beliefs and expectations 9#7Chinese Consumption Pattern Retail sales Year-over-year change Automobile sales Millions of units, saar 30 30 35% 30% 25% 25 25 Dec. 2021 yly y/2y annualized Retail sales 1.7% 3.1% 20% 15% 20 10% 5% 15 0% -5% 10 -10% -15% -20% -25% LO O '15 '16 '17 '18 '19 "20 "21 China U.S. Euro Area Dec. 2021 23.5 12.4 7.9 '07 '09 '11 "13 '15 '17 '19 '21 Source: (Left) Wind, National Bureau of Statistics of China; (Right) Association of Automobile Manufacturers, ECB, BEA, J.P. Morgan Asset Management. Data are as of Mar 31, 2022 * 7#8China self supporting its growing demand * 8#9Contribution to GDP Growth Contribution to real GDP growth Year-over-year change 24% 20% 16% 12% 8% 4% 0% -4% 1Q21 2Q21 3Q21 Gross capital formation (investment) Consumption 4.4% 1.0% 9.3% 5.9% 4Q21 0.4% -0.5% 3.8% 3.4% Net exports 4.6% 1.0% 0.7% 1.1% Total GDP 18.3% 7.9% 4.9% 4.0% -8% '78 '83 '88 '93 '98 '03 63 Source: CEIC. National Bureau of Statistics, WIND J.P. Morgan Asset Management. Data as on Mar 31, 2022 '08 '13 '18 2021: 8.1% * 6#10Change in Growth Structure Share of GDP by sector % of nominal GDP 60% 50% Manufacturing 40% 30% 20% 10% Services Agriculture 2021: 53.3% 2021: 39.4% 2021: 7.2% 0% '78 '83 '88 '93 '98 '03 '08 '13 '18 Source: CEIC, National Bureau of Statistics, J.P. Morgan Asset Management. Guide to China. Data are as of Mar 31, 2022. *#11Importance of Trade to China Total exports and imports % of GDP China's exports by product Share of total exports 40% 50% 35% 30% 25% 20% Exports 45% 2020: 18% 40% 15% 10% Imports 2020: 14% 35% 5% 0% T T '80 '83 '86 '89 '92 '95 '98 '01 '04 '07 '10 '13 '16 '19 30% 25% Machinery and Electronics Current account balance % of GDP 12% 10% 20% Textiles and Clothing 8% 6% 4% 2% 0% -2% lllll 15% 2020: 10% 2.0% 5% Metals Transportation -4% Chemicals -6% 0% '80 '83 '86 '89 '92 '95 '98 '01 '04 '07 '10 '13 '16 '19 '92 '95 '98 '01 '04 '07 *10 '13 $16 Source: (Left) IMF; (Right) World Bank; J.P. Morgan Asset Management. Guide to China. Data are as of Mar 31, 2022. *#12Investor Participation * 12#13Chinese Pvt Equity Markets Number of unicorns by city* Hurun Global Unicorn Index 2021, top 10 cities San Francisco Beijing 91 New York Shanghai Shenzhen 32 London 31 71 85 Venture capital fundraising Capital raised, % of global total 80% 151 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% U.S.: 66% China: 7% '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18 '19 '20 China venture capital exits Exit value (U.S. dollar, billions) and count $200 275 300 Bengaluru 28 Chinese unicorns by sector # of Unicorns % of total ■Exit value ($B) + Exit count valuation 219 $152 250 E-commerce 42 9% $150 170 Hangzhou 22 Health Tech 30 5% $115 200 Artificial Intelligence 30 5% $100 121 120- 179 150 $65 Paris 18 SaaS 18 4% 58 $55 100 Semiconductor 18 3% $50 48 49 110 42 $35 31 22 Berlin 17 15 14 $17 $18 50 $2 90 $0 0 50 100 150 200 '06 '07 '08 '09 '10 '11 '12 '13 '14 '15 '16 '17 '18 '19 '20 Source: (Left) Hurun Research Institute; (Right) KPMG, Pitchbook, J.P. Morgan Asset Management | *Unicorns defined as companies worth at least a billion dollars and not yet listed on a public exchange. Unicorn valuations are snapshot of November 30, 2021. Venture capital fundraising and exits based on KPMG's 4Q21 Venture Pulse Report - Asia. Data are as of Jan 31, 2022. * 13#14What's driving markets? MSCI China Price Index 140 120 100 80 2020: Huge Stimulus, 80 Covid-19 becomes 8+% GDP growth, high export growth 19 40 20 serious Summer 2022: Slow macro recovery challenged by COVID zero and property crackdown aftereffects 2021: Economy slows in 2H21 as government uses growth 'dividend' for heavy-handed regulatory initiatives 28 Feb: Russia invades Ukraine, Omicron spreads in China 16 March: Government announcement of support for markets & economy 0 Jan '20 Apr 20 Jul '20 Oct '20 Jan '21 Apr '21 Jul '21 Oct "21 Jan '22 Apr 22 Jul 22 *#15Next 24 Month Return China's P/B ratio near historical lows From these valuations over the next two years MSCI China has been up 60% on average MSCI China Price-to-Book ratio vs Next 24 Month Return 20.0% Current Level: 1.39 150% 100% 50% 0% -50% 1 1.5 2 2.5 3 3.5 4 4.5 Price-to-Book Ratio Source: Bloomberg, FactSet, MSCI, J.P. Morgan Asset Management. Data as of 31 Dec 2022. : 5 *#16Index MSCI China CS1300 Long term valuation is still supportive Expected Return (%) 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 May-18 Jul-18 Sep-18 Nov-18 Historical Annualized Return (end Jan 2008 - Jan 2023) 3.0% Stocks under coverage Stocks under MSCI China 10/40 JPM China Rep Portfolio Weighted Average 5-Year Expected Return as of Jan 2023 Weighted Average 5-Year Earnings Growth* as of Jan 2023 12.8% 16.7% 14.6% 22.5% 12.3% 12.8% 1.6% JPM China A Rep Portfolio 15.4% 18.6% Stocks under CS1300 Jan-19 Mar-19 May-19 Jul-19 Sep-19 Nov-19 Jan-20 Mar-20 May-20 Jul-20 Sep-20 Nov-20 Jan-21 Mar-21 May-21 LZ- MSCI China CSI 380 Sep-21 Nov-21 Jan-22 Mar-22 May-22 Jul-22 Sep-22 Nov-22 Jan-23 Forecast annual growth rate of earnings per share in local currency over the next five years. Source: Bloomberg. J.P. Morgan Asset Management. Data as of end Jan 2023. Opinions, estimates, forecasts, projections and statements of financial market trends are based on market conditions at the date of the publication, constitute our judgment and are subject to change without notice. There can be no guarantee they will be met. 16 *#17Presenting Edelweiss Greater China Equity Offshore Fund Now access companies from the People's Republic of China, Hong Kong and Taiwan ("Greater China") * 17#18Edelweiss Greater China Equity Off-Shore Fund An Open-Ended Fund of Fund scheme investing in JPMorgan Funds Investment Objective*: To provide long-term capital growth by investing primarily in companies from the People's Republic of China, Hong Kong and Taiwan ("Greater China") - Greater China Fund Investment Strategy*: A "Best Ideas" portfolio of China equities. that leverages our comprehensive EMAP Greater China research team Who Should Invest * Growth oriented investors focused on businesses with sustainably high returns * Investors looking to diversify and invest in companies from the People's Republic of China, Hong Kong and Taiwan * Underlying fund i.e., JPMorgan Funds - Greater China Fund * 18#19Greater China JPM investment team Anuj Arora Head of EMAP Equities Team Exp: 20,17 Portfolio Managers China and Greater China Growth Howard Wang Head of Greater China Exp 28,18 China Income and Hong Kong Core Lillan Leung Exp 28.13 Talwan Growth Rebecca Jiang Exp: 18,8 Simmy QI Бар 12,12 Elizabeth Pang LI Tan Exp: 18,18 Exp: 12,12 James Yeh Joellan Tseng Exp: 27:21 Exp: 25,5 Source: J.P. Morgan Asset Management. As of Dec 31, 2022 Research Analysts Shumin Huang Head of Emerging Asia Research Exp: 31,17 Greater China Dedicated Sector Analysts Penny Tu Internet Exp: 17,9 Robert Yen Technology Exp: 20,7 Vincent Yu Healthcare Exp: 15,10 Bonnie Chang Consumer Industrials Exp: 23,8 Lin He Industrials/ Consumer Exp: 20,5 Willy Chen Industrials Exp: 13.5 Ada Gao Natural Resources Exp: 9,9 Ansel Lin* Internet/Media Exp: 10,4 Vivian Tao Usities/ Industrials Exp: 25,4 Edward Yen Technology Exp: 18,4 Select Emerging Asla Sector Analysts Yunyun Hu Consumer Exp: 14,5 Whitney Hu Healthcare Exp: 8,1 Eva Wang Consumer Exp: 18,6 Zhuoran Wang Industrial Exp: 11,1 Connie Shen Real Estate Financials Exp: 12,0 Rebecca Qin Real Estate Financial Exp: 4,2 Mark Mao Auto I Industrials Exp: 13,8 Paul Chan Technology Exp: 29,29 Andrew Tan Natural Resources Exp: 28,15 Denise Valentine Biotechnology Exp: 27,7 Catherine Moong Gaming/Consumer Exp: 22,17 *#20Portfolio Characteristics JPMorgan Funds - Greater China Fund as of Dec 31, 2022 Benchmark MSCI Golden Dragon Net Market capitalization (USD) Portfolio Benchmark 60.0 12-Month Forward Price to Earnings (x) 20.3 12.4 50.0 Price to book (x) 3.5 1.6 40.0 Dividend yield (%)" 1.6 2.9 30.0 Return on equity (%) 13.0 10.8 20.0 Five year expected growth rate (%)** 21.6 16.4 15.5 Number of issuers 10.0 60 775 Active share (%) 58.7 ■Portfolio % Benchmark % 11.0 10.2 9.0 28.2 22.9 54.0 48.8 0.0 0.1 0.0 0-1bn 1-5bn 5 - 10bn 10 - 30bn 30bn+ Source: J.P. Morgan Asset Management. The fund is actively managed. Holdings, sector weights, allocations and leverage, as applicable, are subject to change at the discretion of the Investment Manager without notice. *#21Sector and country positions JPMorgan Funds - Greater China Fund as of Jan 31, 2023 Active and absolute sector positions Relative to benchmark (%) Benchmark MSCI Golden Dragon Net 10.0 8.8 5.0 1.6 1.3 0.7 0.4 0.0 0.3 0.3 0.0 -0.4 -5.0 -0.5 -1.0 -2.0 -2.8 -10.0 Information Consumer Comm. Industrials Technology Discretionary Services Real Estate Consumer Health Staples Care Utilities Energy Materials -5.2 -7.7 Financials Diversified Insurance Banks Financial Services Cash Portfolio 30.7 21.7 14.1 8.5 5.1 4.1 3.4 20 0.0 0.8 11.3 3.5 4.4 3.5 0.3 Weight (%) Active and absolute market positions Relative to benchmark (%) 15.0 10.6 10.0 5.0 0.0 ㅁㅁ 1.3 1.8 0.3 -5.0 -3.5 -10.0 -15.0 China A-shares -0.2 Others Hong Kong Taiwan Cash Portfolio 63.2 20.2 43.0 weight (%) 8.2 28.3 0.3 Source: J.P. Morgan Asset Management. The fund is actively managed. Holdings, sector weights, allocations and leverage, as applicable, are subject to change at the discretion of the Investment Manager without notice. *#22Portfolio positions & summary JPMorgan Funds - Greater China Fund as of Jan 31, 2023 Benchmark MSCI Golden Dragon Net Top 10 Holdings Portfolio weight (%) Top 5 overweights Fund weight (%) Relative position (%) Taiwan Semiconductor Mfg 10.2 China Resources Mixc Lifestyle 2.0 1.9 Tencent Holdings Ltd Global Unichip Corp 1.8 1.8 9.7 Meituan 4.4 1.8 Meituan 4.4 Trip.Com Group Ltd 22 1.7 AIA Group Ltd 4.4 Aspeed Technology Inc 1.5 1.5 Alibaba Group Holding Ltd 3.4 JD.Com Inc 2.7 Top 5 underweights Fund weight (%) Relative position (%) Netease Inc 2.3 Alibaba Group Holding Ltd 3.4 -2.1 China Construction Bank 0.0 Wuxi Biologics Cayman Inc -1.7 2.3 Hong Kong Exchanges & Clearing Trip.Com Group Ltd 2.2 2.2 Ping An Insurance Group Co Taiwan Semiconductor Mfg PDD Holdings Inc 0.0 -1.5 10.2 -1.4 0.0 -1.3 Source: J.P. Morgan Asset Management. The fund is actively managed. Holdings, sector weights, allocations and leverage, as applicable, are subject to change at the discretion of the Investment Manager without notice. *#23Latest Performance Over the long term, the fund has outperformed its own benchmark along with major domestic and global indices Returns (INR) Edelweiss Gr China Eq Offshore Fund-Reg(G) MSCI Golden Dragon (Benchmark) Shanghai Shenzen CSI 300 MSCI India Index Nifty 50 Total Return Index. 3Y 5Y 7Y 10Y 6.2% 6.1% 12.1% 10.4% 1.2% 1.1% 7.5% 6.3% 5.9% 3.2% 6.6% 7.6% 14.5% 9.0% 11.6% 10.0% 17.0% 11.9% 15.2% 13.1% Source: Bloomberg, Data as on Feb 28, 2023. CAGR Returns. Past performance may or may not sustain in the future. *#24Returns Performance | Rolling Returns 3 Year Rolling Period 5 Aug-12 Feb-13 Aug-13 Feb-14 Aug-14 Feb-15 Aug-15- Feb-16 Aug-16 Feb-17 Aug-17 Feb-18 Aug-18 Feb-19 OGG NNW C 20 15 10 25 30 35 Year Aug-19 Feb-20 Aug-20 Feb-21 Aug-21 Feb-22 Aug-22 Feb-23 Period Minimum Average Maximum % times -ve returns % times Period Minimum Average Maximum returns >7% % times -ve returns 3 Year -2.02% 13.82% 32.22% 0 83.80% 5 Year 1.46% 13.08% 30.76% Data as on Feb 28, 2023, Past performance may or may not sustain in the future. Note: Edelweiss Greater China Equity Offshore Fund-Reg(G) since inception, has never been negative on a 5Y rolling basis. This is despite significant negative headlines (trade wars, Geopolitics, Hard Landing concerns, leverage, Shadow banking & the recent regulatory measures) in the past 12Y of its existence in India. The recent heightened regulatory regime in China has created short term headwinds. Do not miss this opportunity to invest at such valuations in China. % times returns >7% 91.04% *#25Calendar year returns (2011 to 2022) Although the last decade belonged to DMs, the Fund held its own, despite the volatility and low access to foreign capital * CY (INR) Returns 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 JP Morgan Greater China Fund -7.9% 30.5% 28.9% 9.5% 0.2% 2.1% 47.6% -16.2% 47.1% 63.4% -8.6% -8.3% Shanghai Shenzhen CSI 300 Index -6.8% 12.1% 7.4% 51.1% 5.8% -14.9% 22.0% 22.0% -22.6% -22.6% 36.9% 39.2% -0.7% -6.5% MSCI Golden Dragon Index -5.4% 22.8% 13.3% 7.0% -5.8% 1.2% 42.0% -13.2% 23.7% 30.5% -9.3% -5.9% S&P 500 Index 18.8% 17.0% 46.3% 13.9% 4.0% 12.4% 12.2% 2.3% 31.7% 19.2% 29.4% -1.1% NSE Nifty 50 Total Return Index -23.8% 29.4% 8.1% 32.9% -3.0% 4.4% 30.3% 4.6% 13.5% 16.1% 25.6% 3.2% Source: Bloomberg. Calendar year returns. Data as on Dec 31, 2021. CAGR Returns. Past performance may or may not sustain in the future#26SIP Performance Edelweiss Greater China Equity Offshore Fund as of Feb 28, 2023 SIP Returns of Edelweiss Greater China Equity Offshore Fund -Reg (G) in INR 1 Year 3 Years 5 Years 7 Years 10 Years Since Inception Monthly Investment (Rs) 10,000 Invested Amount (Rs) 1,20,000 3,60,000 6,00,000 8,40,000 12,00,000 16,30,000 Present Value (Rs) 1,26,002 3,27,722 6,63,943 11,00,906 18,83,594 33,34,923 XIRR (%) 7.91% -6.03% 4.01% 7.62% 8.74% 9.95% * Source: ACE MF Data as of Feb 28, 2023. Inception date: Aug 26, 2009. SIP date: 1st of every month, Past performance may or may not sustain in the future. XIRR stands for the individual rate of return & shows real investment return. * 26#27Bottom-up stock selection reflects key long-term structural growth opportunities * Technology ד IIIII Capturing China's best quality growth opportunities Carbon neutrality . The above portfolio characteristics are shown for illustrative purposes only and are subject to change without notice. Consumption L#28Chinese Tech Cos leading from the front Chinese Tech Heavyweights making their presence felt by Market Capitalization in last decade XXIII MAINFRAME 1980 000 WWW INTERNET PERSONAL COMPUTER 1990 2000 ARTIFICIAL INTELLIGENCE MOBILITY/CLOUD 2010 2020 MARKET MARKET COMPANY CAP COMPANY CAP COMPANY MARKET CAP MARKET IBM 38 IBM 54 Microsoft 604 COMPANY Microsoft CAP COMPANY MARKET CAP 269 Apple 2,008 Eastman Kodak 8 Panasonic 33 Cisco Systems 355 Google 197 Microsoft 1,592 Xerox 5 Toshiba 27 Intel 274 Apple 191 Amazon 1,577 Hewlett-Packard 4 NEC 19 Lucent Technologies 238 IBM 171 Alphabet 1,013 Emerson Electric 2 Fujitsu 19 Nokia 210 Cisco Systems 138 Alibaba 770 Texas Instruments 2 Mitsubishi Electric 16 IBM 193 Oracle 123 Facebook 746 Motorola Solutions 2 Eastman Kodak 13 Oracle 158 Hewlett-Packard 122 Tencent Holdings 632 Nortel Networks 2 Sanyo Electric 13 Nortel Networks 139 Intel 113 TSMC 388 Intel 1 Harris 1 FUJIFILM Holdings Hewlett-Packard 12 Sun Microsystems 135 11 Dell 130 Samsung Electronics QUALCOMM 88 NVIDIA 334 77 Samsung Electronics 333 * Source: Bloomberg, FactSet, J.P. Morgan Asset Management; as of 30 September 2020. Market capitalization in USD billions. The securities highlighted above have been selected based on their significance and are shown for illustrative purposes only. They are not recommendations. 28#29COVID policy - The beginning of the end • China has been forced to give up COVID-zero because of heightened economic costs and challenges to local enforcement. The rapid and large exit wave shall be followed by a fast economic activity recovery for a relatively extended period of time. Companies with lean cost / strong pricing power are the preferred plays for re-opening. China has exited the "exit wave"... Baidu pandemic index - National and on the way of recovery Subway traffic index (29 cities) Index, GDP weighted, 7dma Million, both scales 350 300 250 200 150 100 50 0 COVID search Online health inquiry (RHS) Dec 21 100 40 35 90 30 80 - 25 70 - 20 60 15 10 50 5 40 30 + + + + Jan 22 Mar 22 May 22 Jul 22 Sep 22 Nov 22 Jan 23 Source: (LHS) Baidu, J.P. Morgan. Data as on 10 Jan 2023; (RHS) Source: Wind, J.P.Morgan. Data as on 09 Jan 2023. * 29#30. Real estate - reduced systemic financial risks Recent policy loosening is targeted to reduce private developers' solvency risks and financial system risks, and thus positive to the sector and the broader market. • Demand recovery will be more dependent on consumer confidence and/or further demand boost policies. Onshore RMB bond yield 5 (%) -Vanke 4.5 4 3.5 3 2.5 2 1.5 China's national residential sales 35 -Poly Development Seazen Group 150% 30 2007/09-2009/01 2013/01-2015/02 Current cycle (2021/01-2022/10) 25 100% 20 50% 15 10 0% 5 T -50% 1 3 5 7 9 11 13 15 17 19 21 23 25 27 29 # of months Source: (LHS) J.P.Morgan Asset Management and NBS. Data as of Oct 2022; (RHS) Source: Chinabond.com.cn Data as on 02nd Dec 2022 * 30#31US$ bn Technology: Driven by industry upgrade and import substitution www Semiconductor: Rising import substitution and self-sufficiency TTITTIT China chip production Net Import Domestic Production 300 China IC production % of global 500 35% 250 450 30% 400 25% 200 350- 3:00 250 200 150 100 50 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 Automation: A secular trend in China's manufacturing businesses China Industrial Robot shipment China robot shipment (k units) China robots % global 60% US$ bn ERP systems Software: Domestic champions starting to emerge Selective applications/verticals on SaaS/subscription model in China Office software 12.0 Online retail/dining 50% Construction budgeting Real estate front-end Computer-aided design 10.0 40% 8.0 20% 150 15% 100 10% 50 5% 30% 6.0 20% 4.0 10% 2.0 0% D 0% 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 0.0 2017 2019 2021E 2023E 2025E Stock highlights: Shenzhen Inovance Stock highlights: Kingsoft * Stock highlights: Starpower Advanced Micro-Fabrication Equipment Kingdee Source: (LHS) China Semiconductor Industry Association, Data as of end July 2022; (Middle) International Federation of Robotics. (RHS) Company data. J.P. Morgan Asset Management, Bernstein analysis. Morgan Stanley. For illustrative purposes only. The companies/securities above are shown for illustrative purposes only. Their inclusion should not be interpreted as a recommendation to buy or sell. J.P. Morgan Asset Management may or may not hold positions on behalf of its clients in any or all the afore mentioned securities. Forecasts/ Estimates may or may not come to pass. SaaS = Software as a service, ERP = Enterprise Resource Planning, IC = Integrated Circuits. 31 *#32Carbon Neutrality: Opportunities from new energy and Old China Electric Vehicle: China has one of the most comprehensive supply chain China NEV sales forecast Solar: China taking global market share across the industry China production as % of global 2019 2020 4.5 4.0 3.5 3.0 25 2.0 1.5 1.0 NEV PV (LHS, million units) NEV Penetration (RHS, %) 100.0% 45% 10000 90.0% 9000 40% 80.0% 8000 -35% 70.0% 7000 -30% 60.0% 6000 - 25% 50.0% 5000 4000 3000 2000 1000 D Starpower Stock highlights: Contemporary Amperex Technology 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022E 2023E 2024E 2025E - 20% 40.0% 15% 30.0% 20.0% 10% 10.0% 5% 0.0% 0% Polysilicon Stock highlights: Tongwei Solar Glass Wafer Cell Module 0.5 Stock highlights: Shanghai Baosight Technology enablers for "Old" China Transformation: New opportunities from carbon neutrality China DCS market (Rmb bn) Locals' share 60% 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% NEV = New energy vehicle; DCS = Distributed control systems; Forecasts and estimates are indicative and may or may not come to pass. Source: (LHS) China Association of Automobile Manufacturers;. Data as of June 2022 (Middle) WIND, J.P Morgan Asset Management; (RHS) Marketing Intelligence Resource; As of September 2021. For illustrative purposes only 32 *#33China's electric vehicle opportunity * Rising EV penetration driven by improving product functionality as well as local policy support China's new energy vehicles (NEV)* % of total China vehicle sales 20% Global electric vehicle sales Millions 5 18% 16% 14% 12% 10% 8% 6% 4% State Council's goal: NEV penetration to reach 20% by 2025 m N Countries/Regions 2021 China Europe North America Japan & Korea Rest of the world 2.0 1.7 0.5 0.1 0.1 0% '16 '17 '18 *19 '20 '21 '22 123 '24 '25 '16 '17 '18 '19 "20 '21 2% Source: JP Morgan Asset Management. Data as on Feb 28, 2022. (left) China Association of Automobile Manufacturers. (Right) Marklines, Bloomberg New Energy Finance#34Chinese Consumer - Better & Healthier Consumer products: Growth driven by premiumization and industry consolidation L Medical Equipment: Benefitting from government investment in related segments CMO/CRO: Structural outsourcing trends benefiting consolidators China Pharmaceutical R&D outsourcing market size (Rmb bn) Condiments market size in China Healthcare Expenditure as % of GDP in China 300 (Rmb bn) ■Soy Sauces Monosodium Glutamate ■■Oyster Sauces 7.0 6.0 Vinegar Other Pickled Products 5.0 600 4.0 500 400 3.0 300 200 100 2012 Stock highlights: Foshan Haitian Chongqing Brewery 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021E 2022E 2023E 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022E 2024E 2026E 2028E 250 200 CAGR 2020- 2025E: 26% 150 100 CAGR 2016- 2020: 26% CAGR Total healthcare expenditure 50 2012-2028E 11.6% 2017-2022E 2022-2028E Stock highlights: Shenzhen Mindray Qingdao Haier Biomedical 12.0% O 9.0% 2016 2020 2025E Stock highlights: Wuxi Biologics Hangzhou Tigermed Source: Frost & Sullivan. Company data. J.P. Morgan Asset Management. Data as of July 2022. For illustrative purposes only. * 34#35Rise & Outlook *#36From fund manager's desk * Greater China equities rose over January in what was a short month given the lunar now your holidays. Offshore Chinese equities outperformed onshore Chinese equities. In the Mainland, amidst signs that the first post-reopening COVID wave has peaked, business and consumer confidence appeared to re-cover quickly, with a sharp rebound in service PMIs. Travel agency and related service revenue is not yet back at pro-COVID levels, but the trajectory is encouraging. Thus far the economic rebound has not boon accompanied by inflationary pressure, with some inflation in travel-related items offset by a declining park price. In Taiwan, themes sech as China re-opening. tapering inflation pressures, peaking of the Fed's rate cycle, and technology inventory destocking, helped the market stage a strong rebound. *The fund underperformed the benchmark during the month. Negative stock selection was partially offset by positive asset allocation. More stable consumer staples stocks underperformed those which have greater leverage to reopening, such as Chinese liquor companies whose products tend to be consumed in social settings. Within the internet space our favored holdings JD Health and Meituan underperformed Alibaba, which was boosted by further normalization of the fintech regulatory landscape in China. On the positive side, a strong rally from Taiwanese technology names such as Silergy, Global Unichip and Aspeed helped performance. Market sentiment received a boost from an anticipated V-shaped recovery for ISMC and end demand bottoming out. Within communication services, it was positive not to own Kuaishou, a video-sharing platform, and Chunghwa Telecom, a Taiwanese telecom service provider. *During the month, in financials, we switched our exposure in private banks, using proceeds from one name to add to a stock which is more sensitive to reopening by being more exposed to retail lending. We also added to a Taiwanese semiconductor foundry with a positive outlook and continued to add to a liquor name as a re-opening beneficiary. These trades were funded by inflows and cash. In the Mainland, China's provincial governments have announced their 2023 GDP targets, which aggregate to a weighted average of 5.6 per cent. Post-reopening, central and local governments are gearing up to support economic reform, growth and employment. We expect more market-friendly policies to be announced later in the quarter. *Chinese equities have moved up rapidly following their fourth quarter trough. We may now need to see earnings upgrades in order to support material further gains, after the pattern of downgrades in 2022. Sentiment relating to Chinese equities and to Asia more broadly generally seems to have a more positive tone compared to that for Developed Market equities, which are working their way through a very different part of the economic cycle. A soft landing in the West, together with any moderation of inflation, would offer a positive backdrop for the Chinese market. * In Taiwan, near-term market performance could be dominated by strong foreign inflows as for now the market recovery is driven by liquidity rather than any change in the fundamentals. But more fundamental progress could be set in motion if China's smartphone demand, which has recently received a further boost, cascades down and supports the component supply chain in Taiwan. Source: JPMorgan Asset Management/What now for Chinese equities/Tai Hui. As on Jan 31, 2023.#37Град Key Takeaways Regulations • Stability first, innovation and fairness second Markets • Always volatile, but at current levels, likely rewarding ↓i!! Strategy ⚫Large local team-bottom up growth focused Source: J.P. Morgan Asset Management. The portfolio characteristics are shown for illustrative purposes only and are subject to change without notice. *#38What's driving markets? 140 MSCI China Price Index 120 100 80 2020: Huge Stimulus, 8+% GDP growth, 60- Covid-19 high export growth becomes serious 40 2021: Economy slows in 2H21, Regulation on platform companies, education, and property 20 Summer 2022: Macro turnaround 28 Feb: 16 March: Government Russia invades Ukraine, announcement Omicron of support for spreads in markets & China economy 0+ Jan '20 Apr '20 Jul '20 Oct 20 Jan '21 Apr 121 Jul 21 Oct 21 Jan '22 Apr '22 Jul 22 Source: Bloomberg, MSCI, J.P. Morgan Asset Management. Data as of 18 July 2022. For illustration purposes only. *#39Path to meet China's 2022 growth goals Stimulus 5% growth Maintain ZeroCovid Better Geopolitics & Regulation No Stimulus China 2022 Relax ZeroCovid Source: J.P. Morgan Asset Management. For illustrative purposes only. Worse Geopolitics & Regulation Stimulus Anything is possible Sub 5% growth Sub 5% growth No Stimulus Low growth *#40% 30 25 20 15 10 сл 5 Attractive valuations EMAP Equities China Expected Return Signal 0 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 Source: J.P. Morgan Asset Management. Data as of 01 November 2022. Opinions, estimates, forecasts, projections and statements of financial market trends are based on market conditions at the date of the publication, constitute our judgment and are subject to change without notice. There can be no guarantee they will be met. *#41Great supply side reform in China Internet Reduced Competition (3,000) Meituan Select Quarterly Operating Losses (Rmb mn) ||||||| Significant improvement in core business profitability Meituan Food Delivery OPM 4.3% 2.6% 8.4% 2019 2020 2021 Improved capital allocation Tencent announced distribution of JD shares and divestment of Sea in Dec-21, and has stepped up buyback YTD (5.800) (5.500) (6,000) (6,800) (7,100) (6,600) Pinduoduo Non-GAAP Net Margin 15% 4020 1021 2021 3021 4021 1022 2022e -5% 2019 2020 2021 Alibaba upsized its buyback program to US$25bn in Mar-22 # of Gaming Companies Deregistered -14% 9,705 18,710 18,000 17,000 Kanzhun Non-GAAP Net Margin 20% JD announced a US$2bn special dividend in May-22 8,000 -15% -47% 2019 2020 2021 2018 2019 2020 2021 4M22 Source: (LHS) Company data, JPMAM estimates; (Middle) Company Annual Reports; (RHS) Company announcements. Data as of May 2022. The securities above are shown for illustrative purposes only. Their inclusion should not be interpreted as a recommendation to buy or sell. GAAP -Generally Accepted Accounting Principles *#42Risk & Reward of Offshore Investing Risk *Global market risks which includes market, currency & event risks *Market risks which are influenced by economic factor of the country * Currency risks/ fluctuation which will impact the NAV of the fund * Event risk like strikes, wars, etc. can put your investments in jeopardy * Geopolitical events like US-China Trade war can make investments unattractive * Investment in International Equities is best form of Asset Allocation *Offers diversification across geographies * Exposure to stocks or businesses not available in India * Invests in top Global/MNC companies not available in India *Higher returns expected when other economies grow faster than India Why should you Invest? *Offshore funds are simplest way to invest in international markets *Hedges risk of INR depreciation against foreign currencies * Funds are treated as debt funds for taxation; hence indexation benefit *Offers diversification across geographies Reward * 42#43Edelweiss Greater China Equity Offshore Fund Fund Structure Month End AUM An open-ended fund of fund scheme investing in JPMorgan Funds - Greater China Fund Rs 1,897 Cr Inception Date Exit Load Plans and Options Minimum Application Amount Fund Manager Benchmark Total Expense Ratio Aug 26, 2009 If the Units are redeemed / switched out on or before 365 days from the date of allotment: 1.00% If the Units are redeemed/ switched out after 365 days from the date of allotment: Nil Direct and Regular Plans Rs.5,000/- (plus in multiple of Re. 1) Mr Bhavesh Jain & Mr Bharat Lahoti MSCI Golden Dragon Index 2.38% for Regular Plan & 1.44% for Direct Plan (This includes Expense of the underlying Fund) Expense of Underlying Fund: 0.77% Note: Details above are for Edelweiss Greater China Equity Offshore Fund as on Feb 28, 2022 * 43#44Disclaimer * This document is for information purposes and private circulation only and is not an offer to sell or a solicitation to buy any mutual fund units / securities or to have business relations with Sponsor/ AMC/ Trustee Company and its associates or Edelweiss Mutual Fund. These views alone are not sufficient and should not be used for the development or implementation of an investment strategy. All opinions, figures and estimates included in this document (unless as specified in the document) are as of this date and are subject to change without notice. It should not be construed as investment advice to any party. Neither Sponsor/ AMC/ Trustee Company and its associates nor Edelweiss Mutual Fund or any person connected with it, accepts any liability arising from the use of this information. Utmost care has been exercised while preparing the document, and Sponsor/ AMC/ Trustee Company and its associates or Edelweiss Mutual Fund does not warrant the completeness or accuracy of the information and disclaims all liabilities, losses and damages arising out of the use of this information. The recipient of this material should rely on their investigations and take their own professional advice. Investment decisions of the AMC may not always be profitable. The stocks / securities referred to in this literature are not an endorsement by the Mutual Fund and AMC of their soundness or a recommendation to buy or sell these stocks. All logos used in the presentation are trademarks or registered trademarks of their respective holders. Use of them does not imply any affiliation or endorsement by them. This product is suitable for investors who are seeking* : *Long Term Capital Growth - *Investment predominantly in in JPMorgan Funds Greater China Fund, an equity-oriented fund which invests primarily in in companies from the People's Republic of China, Hong Kong and Taiwan ("Greater China") *Investors should consult their financial advisers if in doubt about whether the product is suitable for them. Risk-o-meter MODERATE MODERATELY HIGH LOW TO MODERATE RISKOMETER Investors understand that their principal will be at very high risk LOW TO BM Risk-o-meter MODERATE MODERATE MODERATELY HIGH RISKOMETER Mutual Fund investments are subject to market risks, read all scheme related documents carefully. 44#45Disclaimer - Underlying Fund * This promotion material issued by Edelweiss Mutual Fund ("the Issuer") may be based on information sourced from J.P. Morgan Asset Management (Singapore) Limited (JPMAMSL), any of its Affiliates or a JPMorgan Fund (collectively known as "JPMorgan") and may not represent views of JPMorgan in its entirety. Such information is educational in nature, should not be construed as research or advice. The identity of the Issuer of the promotion material and the investment product which is the subject of the promotion material, and the content of the promotion material has been verified by the Issuer. The promotion material is not issued by JPMorgan and the promotion material does not relate to a direct investment in any JPMorgan Fund. JPMorgan has not reviewed the contents of the promotion material and accordingly takes no responsibility for the accuracy of the contents of the promotion material or any liability for any statement or misstatement in the promotion material.; An investor would be investing into an investment product which is established, offered and sold by the Issuer or its affiliates and would not be investing in any JPMorgan Fund, and accordingly there is no contractual relationship between the investor and JPMorgan. 45#46Know more, www.edelweissmf.com f in * 46

Download to PowerPoint

Download presentation as an editable powerpoint.

Related

Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group 2021 Financial Overview image

Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group 2021 Financial Overview

Financial

Organic Capital Generation and IFRS Transition Outlook image

Organic Capital Generation and IFRS Transition Outlook

Financial

Acquisition of Marshall & Ilsley Corp. image

Acquisition of Marshall & Ilsley Corp.

Financial

SMBC Group's Financial and Credit Portfolio image

SMBC Group's Financial and Credit Portfolio

Financial

Blue Stripe Fund Summary image

Blue Stripe Fund Summary

Financial

BRI Performance Highlights and Green Initiatives image

BRI Performance Highlights and Green Initiatives

Financial

Latvia Stability Programme Report image

Latvia Stability Programme Report

Financial

International Banking Volume & Growth Summary image

International Banking Volume & Growth Summary

Financial