#1Impacts of Climate Change in Ladakh (Indian Himalayas) Tundup Angmo, GERES INDIA [email protected] geres Energy Environment Solidarity#2Context The region falls in the rain shadow area of the Indian Himalayas which blocks the monsoon winds thereby causing meager rainfall *Lea frontières ne sont pas certifée a Cold desert Area SRINAGAR CHINE MALAYA CHANDIGAR K NEPAL LUCKNOW AGRA PAKISTAN DELHI JAIPUR UDAIPUR GANDHINAGAR FATEHPUR VARANASI SIKRI BHOPAL Inde MUMBAI (BOMBAY) GOW PANAJI MER D'OMAN BANGALORE > THIRUVANANTHAPURAM GANGTOK ITANAGAR SHILLONG PATNA IMPHAL AGATALA ● AIZAWI CALCUTTA BHUBANESWAR HYDERABAD GOLFE 00 BENGALE 000m 000m 500m 200m SHAM NUBRA Kargil Disket Kaltse Srinagar Leh PAKISTAN KARGIL District LEH District CHINA (Tibet) Padum ZANSKAR Jammu LAHAUL and SPITI District Kyelang SPITI Kaza CHENNAI (MADRAS) MADURAI ÎLES D'AND AMAN Jammu and Kashmir Himachal Pradesh SRILANKA CHANG TANG SHIMLA Pooh KINNAUR District#3Context Altitude: 3000- 5000 meters above sea level • Climate: The climate is cold (-30*C in peak winters) and dry (average rainfall of 50 mm per annum), thereby limiting the growth of natural vegetation. • The region has many small glaciers( literally one above each village) and these glaciers and snowmelt water is the only source of water for irrigation, domestic purpose, etc#4Empty#5Methodology to assess impact An amalgam of three approaches was used for assessing the impacts of Climate change : - - - Analysis of meteorological data from 1973 to 2008 at Leh (Temperature and Precipitation) - Impact interviews with villagers and prominent persons (especially aged people) in eight representative villages Baseline survey about Temperature and Precipitation Changes among 211 villagers older than 35 years#6Analysis of Meteorological data Mean minimum temperature for all winter months 1973-2008 were analyzed to ascertain secular trends Similarly, Mean maximum temperature for summer months 1973-2008#7Temp [°C] -4 TEMPERATURE Mean Min Temp and Trend: NOV(1973-20008) -6 M -8 -10 y=0.0217x - 8.1807 ЛЛ -12 1973 1978 1983 1988 1993 1998 2003 2008 Years - Mean Min Linear (Mean Min) Mean -7.8 °C#8Temp [°C] -8 -9 Mean Min Temp and Trend: DEC(1973-20008) y = 0.0362x - 12.436 -10 -11 -12 -13 -14 -15 -16 1973 1978 1983 1988 1993 1998 2003 2008 Years Mean Min Linear (Mean Min) Mean: -12.0 ° C#9Temp [°C] -6 -8 -10 -12 Mean Min Temp and Trend: JAN(1973-2008) y = 0.0487x - 15.333 -14 А -16 -18 АА -20 -22 1973 1978 1983 1988 1993 1998 2003 2008 → Mean Min Years Linear (Mean Min) Mean: -14.2° C#10Temp [ °C ] 28 26 24 22 Summer:Mean Max Temp and Trend: JUN(1973-2008) y = 0.0358x + 23.582 20 1973 1978 1983 1988 1993 1998 2003 2008 Years Mean Max Linear (Mean Max) Mean : 24.0 ° C#11Temp [°C] 30 28 2080 26 Mean Max Temp and Trend:JULY(1973-2008) y = 0.0382x + 27.428 А 24 1973 1978 1983 1988 1993 1998 2003 2008 Years Mean Max Linear (Mean Max) Mean : 28.1° C#12Temp [ °C ] 30 30 28 26 24 Mean Max Temp and Trend: AUG(1973-2008) V y = 0.0067x + 27.39 A W 22 1973 1978 1983 1988 1993 1998 2003 2008 Years Mean Max Linear (Mean Max) Mean : 27.7° C#13Inferences Trend analysis clearly indicates that there is rising trend of minimum temperature at Leh and the rise is of the order of nearly 1° C for all the winter months. The maximum temperature for summer months shows rising trend of nearly 0.5°C in last 35 years. Though, the rising trend is more sharp in min temp of winter months.#14Rainfall [MM] 30 30 25 20 ŏGN 15 10 27.9 PRECIPITATION Snowfall: NOV(1973-2008) 5 0 1973 1978 1983 1988 1993 1998 2003 2008 Years Max Rainfall in 24 hrs: - Rainfall Linear (Rainfall) Mean : 2.5 MM 21.1 MM (04 NOV 81 )#15Rainfall [MM] 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 Snowfall Trend: DEC(1973-2008) y = -0.2769x + 11.595 32.8 Лл 5 0 1973 1978 1983 1988 1993 1998 2003 2008 Years Max Rainfall in 24 hrs: 211 MM (04 DEC 81) Rainfall Linear (Rainfall) Mean 5.4 MM#16Rainfall [MM] 120 110 100 90 80 70 60 50 40 Snowfall Trend: JAN (1973-2008) y= = 0.2215x + 11.428 112.4 30 20 10 0 1973 1978 1983 1988 1993 1998 2003 2008 Years Max Rainfall in 24 hrs: 100.2 MM (18 JAN 08 ) Mean 11.8 MM Rainfall Linear (Rainfall)#1740 37.5 35 Rainfall [MM] 30 25 20 GNN 15 10 Snowfall Trend: FEB(1973-2008) y = -0.3101x + 13.05 M 5 LO 0 1973 1978 1983 1988 1993 1998 2003 2008 Years Max Rainfall in 24 hrs: 19.4 MM (28 FEB 85) Rainfall Linear (Rainfall) Mean : 7.9 MM#18Rainfall [MM] 20 16 12 00 Rainfall and Trend: JUN(1973-2008) y = 0.0892x + 1.0284 20.4 4 0 1973 1978 1983 1988 1993 1998 2003 2008 Years Max Rainfall in 24 hrs: Rainfall 12.8 MM (12 JUN 98 ) Linear (Rainfall) Mean 2.6 MM#19Rainfall [MM] 60 55 50 Rainfall and Trend: JULY(1973-2008) y = -0.1383x + 12.083 ■51.4 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 5 W 0 1973 1978 1983 1988 1993 1998 2003 2008 Years Max Rainfall in 24 hrs: Rainfall 12.8 MM (12 JULY 98) Linear (Rainfall) Mean 10.2 MM#20Rainfall [MM] 60 55 50 45 40 35 30 25 20 15 10 Rainfall and Trend: AUG (1973-2008) y = -0.0886x + 11.753 46.4 5 0 1973 1978 1983 1988 1993 1998 2003 2008 Years Max Rainfall in 24 hrs: 18.4 MM (1 AUG 99) Rainfall Linear (Rainfall) Mean 10.0 MM#21Precipitation: Inferences Trend analysis of precipitation suggests: There is clear declining trend in precipitation amount from November to March ( reduction in snow fall). This is the season for 70% occurrence of precipitation over Ladakh and mostly in the form of snow. January trend is rising due to one extreme event of snowfall during January 2008. During summer season, no significant change noticed in precipitation amount as it accounts for 30% of annual precipitation and in the form of rain.#22Impacts Interviews The impact assessment study was carried out with village elder men and experts from the field of agriculture, horticulture etc. in the form of informal interviews.#23Perceived impacts in Leh district Bio indicators of Climate change Glacier retreat in almost every part like Khardong-la, Stok Kangri, etc. Presence of pests (coddling moth) on apple & apricots in almost every part of Ladakh which earlier was found only on Apple and lower villages like Dha-Hanu. Agricultural fields in many villages (Tagmachik, Alchi, Gia) have been left fallow due to unavailability of irrigation water. Increased incidence of floods in 2004, 2005 in Leh Shift in apple belt from lower Sham(9000 ft.) to Rong area(12,000 ft). Change in flowering of apricots and apples. (earlier end April: now mid April) Change in Harvest season ( earlier: Oct 1-2week Now: sept 4th week)#24Empty#25Empty#26Baseline survey An awareness baseline survey regarding climatic changes was conducted in: 20 villages in four regions (Leh, Kargil) Total 150 people above 35 years have been interviewed.#27Percentage of people Findings of Baseline Survey Changes in summer Temp 120% 100% 100% 89% 90% 80% 80% 60% 40% 20% 20% 9.50% 8% 1.50% 2% 0% leh Kargil Lahaul Spiti Regions warmer colder ☐ no change#28Percentage of people Changes in winter temperature 100% 90% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% Changes in Winter Temperature 95% 58% 59% warmer 42% 41% colder 30% 20% 10% 10% 5% 0% leh Kargil Lahaul Spiti Regions#29percentage of people 100% 90% 80% Changes in Rainfall 89% Changes in Rainfall 77% 70% 60% -50% 52% 45% 50% 40% 30% 23% 30% 20% 20% 11% 3% 10% 0% 0% Leh Kargil Lahaul Spiti Regions less more □ no change#30percentage of people 120% 100% Changes in snowfall 75% 80% 60% 40% 25% 20% 0% Leh 0% Changes in snowfall 100% 60% 40% 77% ☐ more 23% 0% Kargil Lahaul Spiti regions less □ no change#31Conclusions • This study was a joint, preliminary effort of Local NGOs (LNP, LEDEG, LEHO, ECOSPHERE) with GERES to get a clear understanding rather than an in depth scientific study • Decrease in precipitation has a greater impact than the increase in temperature • A couple of villages have already been relocated and land in various villages left barren • The mountain population are clearly being impacted#32EUROPEAID CO-OPERATION OFFICE LADAKHEN GERES worldwide: www.geres.eu GERES India: website : www.india.geres.eu e-mail: [email protected] geres Energy Environment Solidarity LENG LEH NUTRITION PROJECT LONDATIO ENS EMBLE GEG Gaz Electricité Grenoble DUCATIONAL & CULTURAL MOVEME SECMOL Ecospher② THANK YOU 32#33geres Energie Environnement Solidarité ADEME Caisse desDépôts French Environment & Energy Management Agency CREDIT COOPERATIF