Energy Security Scenarios

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March 22, 2023

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#1SHELL INSIGHTS ANNUAL ESG UPDATE March 22, 2023 POWERING PROGRESS#2AGENDA 15:00 - 15:05 GMT Welcome In person and virtual with Tjerk Huysinga, Executive Vice President Investor Relations In person and virtual 15:05 15:35 GMT 15:35 16:05 GMT 16:05 16:20 GMT 16:20 - 17:00 GMT The Energy Security Scenarios with Laszlo Varro, Vice President, Global Business Environment 2022 Energy Transition Progress Report with Ed Daniels, Executive Director Strategy, Sustainability & Corporate Relations Break Fireside chat with Wael Sawan, Chief Executive Officer 17:00 - 18:00 GMT Drinks Shell plc | March 22, 2023 In person and virtual In person In person 2#3THE ENERGY SECURITY SCENARIOS ENTERING A WORLD OF COMPETITIVE TRANSITION Laszlo Varro Vice President Global Business Environment#4THE ENERGY SECURITY SCENARIOS WARNING: UNCERTAINTIES AHEAD - WARNING UNCERTAINTIES AHEAD: Shell's scenarios are not intended to be projections or forecasts of the future. Shell's scenarios, including the scenarios contained in this presentation, are not Shell's strategy or business plan. They are designed to stretch management to consider even events that may only be remotely possible. Scenarios, therefore, are not intended to be predictions of likely future events or outcomes and investors should not rely on them when making an investment decision with regard to Shell plc securities. When developing Shell's strategy, our scenarios are one of many variables that we consider. Ultimately, whether society meets its goal to decarbonise is not within Shell's control, only governments can create the framework necessary for society to meet the Paris Agreement's goal. The Sky 2050 scenario is a normative scenario, which means we assume that society meets the most ambitious goal of the Paris agreement: limiting the increase in global average temperatures to 1.5°C above pre-industrial levels this century, and then we work back in presenting how this may occur. Our assumptions for the Sky 2050 are based on what we believe are technically possible as of today and not necessarily plausible. Our Archipelagos scenario is an explorative scenario, which means we do not assume the final outcome, rather we use plausible assumptions based on the data to determine what we believe will occur in the future. Of course, there is a range of possible paths in detail that society could take to achieve this goal. Although achieving the goal of the Paris Agreement and the future depicted in Sky 2050 while maintaining a growing global economy will be extremely challenging, today there is still a technically possible pathway to accomplish it. However, we believe the window for success is quickly closing. The companies in which Shell plc directly and indirectly owns investments are separate legal entities. In this presentation "Shell", "Shell Group" and "Group" are sometimes used for convenience where references are made to Shell plc and its subsidiaries in general. Likewise, the words "we", "us" and "our" are also used to refer to Shell plc and its subsidiaries in general or to those who work for them. These terms are also used where no useful purpose is served by identifying the particular entity or entities. "Subsidiaries", "Shell subsidiaries" and "Shell companies" as used in this presentation refer to entities over which Shell plc either directly or indirectly has control. Entities and unincorporated arrangements over which Shell has joint control are generally referred to as "joint ventures" and "joint operations", respectively. "Joint ventures" and "joint operations" are collectively referred to as "joint arrangements". Entities over which Shell has significant influence but neither control nor joint control are referred to as "associates". The term "Shell interest" is used for convenience to indicate the direct and/or indirect ownership interest held by Shell in an entity or unincorporated joint arrangement, after exclusion of all third-party interest. This presentation contains forward-looking statements (within the meaning of the U.S. Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995) concerning the financial condition, results of operations and businesses of Shell. All statements other than statements of historical fact are, or may be deemed to be, forward-looking statements. Forward-looking statements are statements of future expectations that are based on management's current expectations and assumptions and involve known and unknown risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results, performance or events to differ materially from those expressed or implied in these statements. Forward-looking statements include, among other things, statements concerning the potential exposure of Shell to market risks and statements expressing management's expectations, beliefs, estimates, forecasts, projections and assumptions. These forward-looking statements are identified by their use of terms and phrases such as "aim", "ambition", "anticipate", "believe", "could", "estimate", "expect", "goals", "intend", "may", "milestones", "objectives", "outlook", "plan", "probably", "project", "risks", "schedule", "seek", "should", "target", "will" and similar terms and phrases. There are a number of factors that could affect the future operations of Shell and could cause those results to differ materially from those expressed in the forward-looking statements included in this presentation, including (without limitation): (a) price fluctuations in crude oil and natural gas; (b) changes in demand for Shell's products; (c) currency fluctuations; (d) drilling and production results; (e) reserves estimates; (f) loss of market share and industry competition; (g) environmental and physical risks; (h) risks associated with the identification of suitable potential acquisition properties and targets, and successful negotiation and completion of such transactions; (i) the risk of doing business in developing countries and countries subject to international sanctions; (j) legislative, judicial, fiscal and regulatory developments including regulatory measures addressing climate change; (k) economic and financial market conditions in various countries and regions; (I) political risks, including the risks of expropriation and renegotiation of the terms of contracts with governmental entities, delays or advancements in the approval of projects and delays in the reimbursement for shared costs; (m) risks associated with the impact of pandemics, such as the COVID-19 (coronavirus) outbreak; and (n) changes in trading conditions. No assurance is provided that future dividend payments will match or exceed previous dividend payments. All forward-looking statements contained in this presentation are expressly qualified in their entirety by the cautionary statements contained or referred to in this section. Readers should not place undue reliance on forward-looking statements. Additional risk factors that may affect future results are contained in Shell plc's Form 20-F for the year ended December 31, 2022 (available at www.shell.com/investor and www.sec.gov). These risk factors also expressly qualify all forward-looking statements contained in this presentation and should be considered by the reader. Each forward-looking statement speaks only as of the date of this presentation, March 22, 2023. Neither Shell plc nor any of its subsidiaries undertake any obligation to publicly update or revise any forward-looking statement as a result of new information, future events or other information. In light of these risks, results could differ materially from those stated, implied or inferred from the forward-looking statements contained in this presentation. Shell plc | March 22, 2023 4#5THE ENERGY SECURITY SCENARIOS TWO SCENARIOS EMERGE, SKY 2050 AND ARCHIPELAGOS Governments are increasingly concerned about guaranteeing a secure supply of affordable energy. Addressing these immediate energy concerns can be at odds with national emissions reduction pledges, creating a world of competitive transition. 2023 Shell plc | March 22, 2023 Security through self Fragmented and competitive interest Archipelagos Race to secure the energy system ~2.2°C in 2100 Security through mutual interest Sky 2050 Accelerated now Focus on changing the energy system ~1.2°C in 2100 5#6THE ENERGY SECURITY SCENARIOS THE STAGGERING DIFFERENCES IN GLOBAL ENERGY ACCESS AND USE USA ~332 million people • 10 million home swimming pools • 4000+ kWh per year each for water circulation Nigeria, DRC, Cameroon ~338 million people Limited access to electricity • 40 TWh per year (home swimming pool electricity) 骨骨 • 40 TWh per year Shell plc | March 22, 2023 (total consumption of electricity) 6#7THE ENERGY SECURITY SCENARIOS IN ANY SCENARIO, ELECTRIFICATION ACCELERATES The final energy system trends rapidly towards electricity ■ A century long trend shifts gear in the 2020s. ■Electrification of transport leads the way: ■ Passenger vehicles. Light road freight. ■Residential energy use trends towards Electricity as a fraction of total final energy 60% 50% >10% points per decade increase 40% 30% full electrification, even for heating. Around 2% points per decade increase for a century ■ Industrial energy use shifts more slowly, 20% >5% points per decade increase but still electrifies over time. Shell plc | March 22, 2023 10% 0% 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 History Archipelagos Sky 2050 7#8THE ENERGY SECURITY SCENARIOS MOLECULAR FUELS REMAIN IMPORTANT Low carbon fuels in final energy Low carbon fuels in final energy Sky 2050 EJ per year Archipelagos EJ per year 60 60 Biofuels, synthetic fuels and hydrogen all have increasing roles Liquid biofuels increase, but 1st generation ethanol peaks before 2035. 2nd generation fuels grow from 2025. Hydrogen emerges in the 2020s and is quick to ramp up in Sky 2050. ■ In 2050, oil and gas derived final energy fuels still total 107 EJ in Sky 2050 (vs. 230 EJ in 2019), over four times that of low carbon fuels. 50 40 40 30 20 20 Shell plc | March 22, 2023 10 50 40 30 20 10 0 0 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 1st generation biofuels Power-to-liquids synthetic fuels 2nd generation biofuels Hydrogen Biogas Fuels made from waste 8#9THE ENERGY SECURITY SCENARIOS OIL AND GAS INVESTMENT DURING THE TRANSITION TO NET-ZERO Oil production by origin Share of 2022 Resource Base* produced by 2050 Mboe/day 120 Iran I New discoveries - additional Iraq 100 8 80 New fields - additional Existing - additional I New discoveries Kazakhstan Libya Nigeria 60 60 I New fields Russia 40 40 20 20 History + existing Sky 2050 Archipelagos Turkmenistan Venezuela O 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 0% Sky 2050 Archipelagos 10% 20% 30% 40% 50% 60% Not produced 70% 80% 90% 100% ■ Sky 2050 has very rapid transport electrification, but would still need continued investment in oil and gas because of cautious assumptions on the use of food based biofuels, on people reducing their energy use voluntarily and it doubts whether some major resource holders can produce their oil and gas reserves. ■ Archipelagos would need a considerable increase of investment in oil and gas. Shell plc | March 22, 2023 * Estimated resource base is Rystad's assessment of economically viable discovered volumes. Percentages capped at 100% for consistency, but where the model produces a significant propotion of yet-to-find volumes, the total produced volume in the model will exceed the resource base estimate. 9#10THE ENERGY SECURITY SCENARIOS THE DESTINATION IS NET-ZERO EMISSIONS, THE QUESTION IS SPEED Global anthropogenic CO2 emissions Energy, Industrial processes and land use, CO2 emissions (Gt per year) ■ Sky 2050 reaches NZE in 2050 (by design), combining energy and land use changes. ■ By 2100, warming is less than 1.5°C in Sky 2050. Archipelagos reaches NZE early in the 22nd century but warming exceeds 2°C. 50 40 40 Shell plc | March 22, 2023 30 20 10 Net emissions to atmosphere О -10 Net drawdown from the atmosphere -20 1980 2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100 History - Archipelagos Sky 2050 2.2°C in 2100 1.2°C in 2100 10#11OUR PROGRESS IN 2022 TOWARDS NET ZERO Ed Daniels Executive Director Strategy, Sustainability & Corporate Relations#12DEFINITIONS AND CAUTIONARY NOTE The companies in which Shell plc directly and indirectly owns investments are separate legal entities. In this presentation "Shell", "Shell Group" and "Group" are sometimes used for convenience where references are made to Shell plc and its subsidiaries in general. Likewise, the words "we", "us" and "our" are also used to refer to Shell plc and its subsidiaries in general or to those who work for them. These terms are also used where no useful purpose is served by identifying the particular entity or entities. "Subsidiaries", "Shell subsidiaries" and "Shell companies" as used in this presentation refer to entities over which Shell plc either directly or indirectly has control. Entities and unincorporated arrangements over which Shell has joint control are generally referred to as "joint ventures" and "joint operations", respectively. "Joint ventures" and "joint operations" are collectively referred to as "joint arrangements". Entities over which Shell has significant influence but neither control nor joint control are referred to as "associates". The term "Shell interest" is used for convenience to indicate the direct and/or indirect ownership interest held by Shell in an entity or unincorporated joint arrangement, after exclusion of all third-party interest. FORWARD-LOOKING STATEMENTS: This presentation contains forward-looking statements (within the meaning of the U.S. Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995) concerning the financial condition, results of operations and businesses of Shell. All statements other than statements of historical fact are, or may be deemed to be, forward-looking statements. Forward-looking statements are statements of future expectations that are based on management's current expectations and assumptions and involve known and unknown risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results, performance or events to differ materially from those expressed or implied in these statements. Forward-looking statements include, among other things, statements concerning the potential exposure of Shell to market risks and statements expressing management's expectations, beliefs, estimates, forecasts, projections and assumptions. These forward-looking statements are identified by their use of terms and phrases such as "aim", "ambition", "anticipate", "believe", "could", "estimate", "expect", "goals", "intend", "may", "milestones", "objectives", "outlook", "plan", "probably", "project", "risks", "schedule", "seek", "should", "target", "will" and similar terms and phrases. There are a number of factors that could affect the future operations of Shell and could cause those results to differ materially from those expressed in the forward-looking statements included in this presentation, including (without limitation): (a) price fluctuations in crude oil and natural gas; (b) changes in demand for Shell's products; (c) currency fluctuations; (d) drilling and production results; (e) reserves estimates; (f) loss of market share and industry competition; (g) environmental and physical risks; (h) risks associated with the identification of suitable potential acquisition properties and targets, and successful negotiation and completion of such transactions; (i) the risk of doing business in developing countries and countries subject to international sanctions; (j) legislative, judicial, fiscal and regulatory developments including regulatory measures addressing climate change; (k) economic and financial market conditions in various countries and regions; (I) political risks, including the risks of expropriation and renegotiation of the terms of contracts with governmental entities, delays or advancements in the approval of projects and delays in the reimbursement for shared costs; (m) risks associated with the impact of pandemics, such as the COVID-19 (coronavirus) outbreak; and (n) changes in trading conditions. No assurance is provided that future dividend payments will match or exceed previous dividend payments. All forward-looking statements contained in this presentation are expressly qualified in their entirety by the cautionary statements contained or referred to in this section. Readers should not place undue reliance on forward-looking statements. Additional risk factors that may affect future results are contained in Shell plc's Form 20-F for the year ended December 31, 2022 (available at www.shell.com/investor and www.sec.gov). These risk factors also expressly qualify all forward-looking statements contained in this presentation and should be considered by the reader. Each forward-looking statement speaks only as of the date of this presentation, March 22, 2023. Neither Shell plc nor any of its subsidiaries undertake any obligation to publicly update or revise any forward-looking statement as a result of new information, future events or other information. In light of these risks, results could differ materially from those stated, implied or inferred from the forward-looking statements contained in this presentation. SHELL'S NET CARBON FOOTPRINT: Also, in this presentation we may refer to Shell's "Net Carbon Intensity", which includes Shell's carbon emissions from the production of our energy products, our suppliers' carbon emissions in supplying energy for that production and our customers' carbon emissions associated with their use of the energy products we sell. Shell only controls its own emissions. The use of the term Shell's "Net Carbon Intensity" is for convenience only and not intended to suggest these emissions are those of Shell plc or its subsidiaries. SHELL'S NET-ZERO EMISSIONS TARGET: Shell's operating plan, outlook and budgets are forecasted for a ten-year period and are updated every year. They reflect the current economic environment and what we can reasonably expect to see over the next ten years. Accordingly, they reflect our Scope 1, Scope 2 and Net Carbon Intensity (NCI) targets over the next ten years. However, Shell's operating plans cannot reflect our 2050 net-zero emissions target and 2035 NCI target, as these targets are currently outside our planning period. In the future, as society moves towards net-zero emissions, we expect Shell's operating plans to reflect this movement. However, if society is not net zero in 2050, as of today, there would be significant risk that Shell may not meet this target. FORWARD LOOKING NON-GAAP MEASURES: This presentation may contain certain forward-looking non-GAAP measures such as cash capital expenditure and divestments. We are unable to provide a reconciliation of these forward- looking Non-GAAP measures to the most comparable GAAP financial measures because certain information needed to reconcile those Non-GAAP measures to the most comparable GAAP financial measures is dependent on future events some of which are outside the control of Shell, such as oil and gas prices, interest rates and exchange rates. Moreover, estimating such GAAP measures with the required precision necessary to provide a meaningful reconciliation is extremely difficult and could not be accomplished without unreasonable effort. Non-GAAP measures in respect of future periods which cannot be reconciled to the most comparable GAAP financial measure are calculated in a manner which is consistent with the accounting policies applied in Shell plc's consolidated financial statements. The contents of websites referred to in this presentation do not form part of this presentation. may We have used certain terms, such as resources, in this presentation that the United States Securities and Exchange Commission (SEC) strictly prohibits us from including in our filings with the SEC. Investors are urged to consider closely the disclosure in our Form 20-F, File No 1-32575, available on the SEC website www.sec.gov. Shell plc | March 22, 2023 12#13CARBON OUR TARGETS UN PARIS AGREEMENT Strategy aligns with goal to limit the increase in the global average temperature to 1.5 degrees Celsius above pre-industrial levels. Net carbon intensity¹ (Scope 1, 2 and 3) Covers emissions associated with the production, processing, transport and end-use of our energy products. NET ZERO BY 2050 Net-zero emissions energy business by 2050 including all emissions (Scopes 1, 2 and 3). FROM 1.7 GTPA TO ZERO We believe Shell's total carbon emissions from energy sold peaked in 2018 at around 1.7 gtpa and will be brought down to net-zero by 2050. In 2022 our total carbon emissions were 1.2 gtpa. Absolute emissions (Scope 1 and 2) Covers all Scope 1 and 2 emissions under Shell's operational control, on a net basis. гW/ǝ2006 2016 baseline 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2030 2035 2050 79 -2.5% 2 -3.8% 2 -6-8% -9-12% -9-13% -20% -45% mtpa CO₂e 83 68 58 41 -50% 0 -100% 2016 baseline 2021 2022 2030E 2050E Actuals Net Carbon Intensity' target Scope 1 Scope 2 Shell plc | March 22, 2023 1 Measured by our Net Carbon Footprint (NCF) methodology, available on our website. 2 2021 target 2-3% reduction, 2022 target 3-4% reduction, both achieved. 13#14CARBON SIGNIFICANT PROGRESS ON OUR PATH TO NET ZERO Net carbon intensity Covers emissions associated with the production, processing, transport and end-use of our energy products (Scope 1, 2 and 3). Absolute emissions Covers all Scope 1 and 2 emissions under Shell's operational control, on a net basis. -30% -3.8% 79 77 76 63 2016 baseline 20211 20221 2030E 2050E Actuals Target Million tonnes CO2e 83 68 58 41 2016 baseline 2021 0 2022 2030E 2050E Scope 1 Scope 2 Net carbon intensity reduction target achieved for two consecutive years More than halfway towards our target to reduce Scope 1 and 2 emissions by 50% by 2030 Shell plc | March 22, 2023 1 NCI target 2021 2-3% reduction, 2022 target 3-4% reduction, both achieved. 14#15CARBON SIGNIFICANT PROGRESS ON OUR PATH TO NET ZERO Routine flaring Methane intensity (Million tonnes of hydrocarbons flared) (%) -37.5% -83% 0.6 0.5 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.08 0.08 0.06 0.06 0.05 Total greenhouse gas emissions¹ (net) (Million tonnes CO2e) -28% 1731 1646 1384 1375 1240 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 In 2022, routine flaring from our upstream operations fell to 0.1 million tonnes of hydrocarbons We have met our target to keep methane emissions intensity below 0.2% in 2022 In 2022 our total estimated carbon emissions were 1.2 gtpa, a reduction of 28% vs 2018 Shell plc | March 22, 2023 1 Estimated total greenhouse gas emissions from energy sold included in Net Carbon Intensity. Total emissions in 2016 were 1.64 gigatonnes. 2018 is used as reference year as this is the earliest year data is available for both routine flaring and methane intensity. 15#16CAPITAL EXPENDITURE INVESTING IN NET ZERO ~33% of total cash capital expenditure in 2022 invested in low-carbon energy and non-energy products Non-energy products [A] $3.9 billion LNG, gas and power marketing and trading [C] $4.2 billion Oil, oil Products and other [D] $12.5 billion Shell plc | March 22, 2023 LNG $25bn Total cash capital expenditure in 2022 Low-carbon energy solutions [B] $4.3 billion H₂ [A] Products for which usage does not cause Scope 3, Category 11 emissions: Lubricants, Chemicals, Convenience Retailing, Agriculture & Forestry, Construction & Road. [B] E-Mobility and Electric Vehicle Charging Services, Low-Carbon Fuels, Renewable Power Generation, Environmental Solutions, Hydrogen, CCUS. We define low-carbon energy products as those that have an average carbon intensity that is lower than conventional hydrocarbon products, assessed on a lifecycle basis. [C] LNG Production & Trading, Gas & Power Trading, and Energy Marketing. [D] Upstream segment, GTL, Refining & Trading, Marketing fuel and hydrocarbon sales, Shell Ventures, Corporate segment. 16#17DECARBONISING OUR PORTFOLIO ENERGY TRANSITION IN ACTION: HIGHLIGHTS IN 2022 Providing more electricity ■ Increased EV charge points by >60% to around 139,000. ■ Acquired Sprng Energy ($1.6 billion), one of India's leading renewable power platforms. Growing our biofuels portfolio Agreed to acquire Nature Energy 1 (~$2 billion), the largest producer of renewable natural gas in Europe. ■ Blended 9.5 billion litres of biofuels 2 (6% of global consumption). Shell plc | March 22, 2023 Developing renewable hydrogen ■ Took FID for Holland Hydrogen I in the Netherlands (200 MW electrolyser capacity). ■ Added 20 MW electrolyser capacity in China. 1 This deal was completed at the beginning of 2023. Providing energy the world needs ■ Selected as partner in two LNG projects with carbon capture and storage in Qatar ³. ■ Delivered 194 LNG cargoes to Europe (almost 5 times our usual average). 2 Includes sales made by Raízen, our non-operated joint venture in Brazil (Shell interest 44%). 3 Shell participation in the North Field South project remains subject to clearance of remaining customary conditions precedent. 17#18CARBON WE BELIEVE OUR TARGETS ARE ALIGNED WITH THE Committed to Net Zero NCI targets 2023 2025 2030 2050 IPCC-derived upper range (4)% (71% (15)% (68)% GOALS OF Shell targets (6-8)% (9-13)% (20%) (100)% THE PARIS AGREEMENT IPCC-derived lower range (10)% (17)% (36)% (104)% Shell plc | March 22, 2023 Our targets: ■ Are derived from 1.5°C scenarios by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. ■ Cover short, mid, and long-term targets for all emissions, from production through to the use of our energy products by customers. ■ Reflect the transformation of our business as we deliver our strategy, changing the mix of energy products we sell to customers. 18#192023 ANNUAL GENERAL MEETING VOTING FOR PROGRESS ON OUR STRATEGY Ensuring a balanced transition, providing the energy the world needs today while accelerating the shift to low- and zero-carbon energy. Resolution 25 - For Shell's Energy Transition Progress resolution Advisory vote on the progress made in 2022 on the Energy Transition Resolution 26 - Against Shareholder resolution by Follow This Significant progress made in the past 12 months: Delivering on our 2022 carbon targets. ■ Investing in low carbon opportunity funnel. ■Leveraging critical customer relationships. ■ Enhancing governance and policies. ☐ Follow this Proposing a new strategy that restricts Shell's role in the energy transition. This resolution is: ■ Not in the best interest of shareholders. ■ Not supporting the climate. ■ Not good governance. ■ Not helpful to our customers. Shell plc | March 22, 2023 19#20FIRESIDE CHAT ESG DIALOGUE with Wael Sawan, Shell CEO and Kamal Ahmed, British journalist and editor#21Empty

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