#119/ FEB 2020 Improving Australia's aid program to Papua New Guinea AUSTRALASIAN AID CONFERENCE, CANBERRA LOWY INSTITUTE#2About the Institute — Australia's leading foreign policy think tank — Non-aligned/partisan - Editorial independence - Have maintained a focus on the Pacific since our inception LOWY INSTITUTE#3Why now? - Government conducting a 'development review'. - Aid investment plan has expired. – Last independent evaluation was a decade ago, and last internal evaluation five years ago. – Major turnover of aid projects and personnel this year. LOWY INSTITUTE#4PNG's development challenges - · Population: 8-10 million - Human Development Index: 0.516, ranked 155 out of 188 (lowest in Asia-Pacific) - - GDP per capita: $2,730 (Lower Middle Income status) Basic needs poverty rate: 39.9% - Infant Mortality Rate: 38/1,000 (Australia is 3/1,000) – Maternal Mortality Rate: 145/100,000 (Australia is 6/1,000) LOWY INSTITUTE#5200 400 600 1975 1976 1977 1,200 1,000 800 Aid's declining relevance in Papua New Guinea Aid to PNG (constant USD $M) 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 LOWY INSTITUTE 0% 90 5% 10% 15% 20% 258 25% Aid as % of GDP 1975 1976 1977 1978 1979 1980 1981 1982 1983 1984 1985 1986 1987 1988 1989 1990 1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Source: OECD#6Aid in Papua New Guinea today Donor Aid to PNG 2011-2017 Current USD M Share Australia $3,359,408,865 59% Transport. 23% Asian Development Bank $737,782,493 13% China $445,559,255 8% Japan World Bank $211,165,771 4% $182,647,580 3% Other/ Unspecified. 3% New Zealand $157,323,649 3% The Global Fund $154,620,224 3% United Nations $126,023,463 2% Multisector/Cross-cutting. 10% European Union $90,385,737 2% Other $207,023,441 4% Grand Total $5,671,940,477 100% LOWY INSTITUTE Aid sectors 2011-2017 Water & Sanitation. 2% Agriculture, Forestry & Fishingcommunication 3% 1% Education 10% Industry, Mining & Construction 4% Humanitarian aid 1% Health 17% Energy 1% Government & Civil Society 25% Source: Lowy Institute Pacific Aid Map#7Australian aid in PNG today - — How objectives are set What the objectives are - How aid is implemented - - Australia's aid performance. LOWY INSTITUTE#82019-20 Sectoral breakdown General Development. Support 2% Building Resilience Health LOWY INSTITUTE 21% 4% Education 13% Infrastructure and Trade 28% Agriculture, Fisheries and Water 2% Effective Governance 30% Source: DFAT PNG fact sheet#9Active Australian aid investments Investment name Australia Awards PNG Education Capacity Development Facility Health Capacity Development & Service Delivery PNG Health & HIV Multilateral Partnerships Transport Sector Support Program Incentive Fund Justice Services Stability for Development Combating corruption in PNG PNG Governance Facility Approved budget 185,000,000 Duration 2016-2026 Number of years Budget per year (avg) 10 18,500,000 277,600,000 2011-2020 9 30,844,444 349,400,000 2011-2020 9 38,822,222 16,500,000 2013-2020 7 2,357,143 463,500,000 2013-2022 9 51,500,000 100,300,000 2015-2021 6 16,716,667 91,200,000 2015-2020 5 18,240,000 7,900,000 2014-2021 7 1,128,571 419,400,000 2014-2020 6 69,900,000 Quality Technical Assurance Group 3,800,000 2017-2020 3 1,266,667 Economic Governance and Inclusive Growth 13,600,000 2017-2020 3 4,533,333 Gender Equality / Gender based violence 63,300,000 2008-2020 12 5,275,000 Sports for Development 7,500,000 2015-2019 4 1,875,000 Climate Change Portfolio 9,800,000 2018-2020 Bougainville Programming Kokoda Initiative Institutional Partnership Program PNG Partnerships Fund Total 18,500,000 2014-2020 43,100,000 2008-2020 12 63,000,000 150,000,000 2017-2020 2017-2020 26 23 3 816,667 3,083,333 3,591,667 21,000,000 50,000,000 2,283,400,000 339,450,714 LOWY INSTITUTE Source: Papua New Guinea Aid Program Performance Report, 2018-19#10Methodology - Desk based review of all evaluations, designs, independent reviews, and government submissions from the last 10 years. - Read every PNG government strategy: five-year medium-term development plan, the Alotau Accord II, The 20-year Development Strategic Plan, PNG policy on donor funding, the StaRS plan, and Papua New Guinea 2050. - Focused workshops with experts in Sydney and Port Moresby - Consultation with DFAT officials LOWY INSTITUTE#11Structure of recommendations — Aid objectives – Aid projects - Aid partners - Aid management LOWY INSTITUTE#12Aid objectives 1. Expectation management 2. Focus on what works 3. Clarity of intent LOWY INSTITUTE#13Website priorities Promoting effective governance Public sector leadership UPNG Business School Decentralisation Citizen participation Economic governance Electoral support National museum Kokoda Bougainville Law and Justice Enabling effective growth Telecommunications undersea cable Economic and social infrastructure Transport infrastructure Road maintenance Incentive fund Private sector support Agriculture and rural development Financial inclusion Innovation Enhancing human development Scholarships Volunteers Literacy and numeracy programs Technical and vocational skills PNG gender: Pacific Women Pacific Parliamentary Project Quality teaching and learning Climate change Disaster preparedness and response TB detection and treatment Malaria surveillance and diagnosis Basic health services Sexual and reproductive health Angau hospital Health financing National health information system HIV/AIDS prevention and care Child nutrition LOWY INSTITUTE Source: DFAT website#14Aid projects 1. Size of aid activities 2. Complexity of aid activities 3. Design of aid activities 4. Breadth of aid activities LOWY INSTITUTE#15Australia's main sectors 100% 90% 80% 70% 75% 60% 86% 50% 40% 30% 20% 25% 10% 14% 0% 67% 33% Education Governance Health The rest Australia LOWY INSTITUTE 30% 70% Transport Source: Lowy Institute Pacific Aid Map#16Aid projects 1. Size of aid activities 2. Complexity of aid activities 3. Design of aid activities 4. Breadth of aid activities LOWY INSTITUTE#17Aid partners 1. Contractors 2. Grants 3. Advisers LOWY INSTITUTE#18Aid management 1. Monitoring and Evaluation 2. Aid accountability 3. Aid transparency 4. Managing relationships LOWY INSTITUTE#19Prioritising 1. Expectation management 2. Strategic clarity 3. Focus (breadth and complexity of programs) 4. Accountability LOWY INSTITUTE#20LOWY INSTITUTE Level 3, 1 Bligh Street, Sydney NSW 2000, Australia +61 2 8238 9000 [email protected] lowyinstitute.org נו#21Fonts We use Arial Regular 56 pt for headings, ARIAL BOLD 38PT FOR SUB HEADINGS And Arial Regular 38pt for body copy text. MINIMUM SIZE HEADINGS 26PT Minimum Size Text 20pt *T&C / Source info / Fine Print 12pt LOWY INSTITUTE