#1STATE OF RHODE ISLAND ESOURCES STATE OF RHODE ISLAND OFFICE OF ENERGY RESOURCES OFFICE OF ENERGY Integrated Grid Planning in RI Rhode Island Office of Energy Resources For NCEP 9/13/2021#2Mission statement The Rhode Island Office of Energy Resources' (OER) mission is to lead the state toward a clean, affordable, reliable, and equitable energy future. OER develops policies and programs that respond to the state's evolving energy needs, while advancing environmental sustainability, energy security, and a vibrant clean energy economy. OER is committed to working with public and private-sector stakeholders to ensure that all Rhode Islanders have access to cost-effective, resilient, and sustainable energy solutions. 2#32021 Act on Climate 100 90 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 10% below 1990 levels by 2020 2020 S-0078A, H-5445A 45% by 2030 Targets 80% by 2040 Net Zero by 2050 2030 2040 2050 3#4RI Greenhouse Gas Emissions Electricity 26% Inventoried Greenhouse Gas Emission Sources 2016 Transportation 17% Electricity Consumption 8% 36% 10% 3% Residential Heating Commercial Heating Industrial Heating and Processes Other FIGURE 1: COMPOSITION OF RHODE ISLAND GHG EMISSIONS Source: Rhode Island Department of Environmental Management, Rhode Island's 2016 Greenhouse Gas (GHG) Emissions Inventory Update, EC4 Meeting, September 12, 2019. 4#5STATE OF OFFICE OF RHODE ENERGY ISLAND RESOURCES The Road to 100% Renewable Electricity 2030 Complete project materials available www.energy.ri.gov/100percent/#6Estimating the Gap We forecasting GWh 9,000 renewable energy Rhode Island Load (Base Load Case) 8,000 growth from existing programs and 7,000 contracts. The 6,000 Potential Path difference between to 100% 5,000 demand and 4,000 renewables is the gap: we will need to build 3,000 or procure -4,600 GWh 2,000 of renewable energy 1,000 by 2030 Current RES 0 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 FIGURE 3: RENEWABLE ELECTRICITY GAP TO ACHIEVE 100% RENEWABLES 2030 Renewable Gap: 4,600 GWh Revolution Wind (400 MW) Other Long-Term Contracts Net Metering (including VNM) RE Growth lili. 6#7Sustainable through 2050 GWh Rhode Island achieves 100% in 2030 Note that continued 18,000 thermal and transportation 16,000 electrification will add 14,000 load and grow the 12,000 gap from 2030-2050. 10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 2,000 0 2020 2025 2030 Renewable Electricity Demand Heating Conventional Electric Load Medium/ Heavy-Duty Vehicles Light-Duty Vehicles lili. 2035 2040 2045 2050 7 FIGURE 4: POTENTIAL RHODE ISLAND ELECTRICITY DEMAND PROJECTION TO 2050#8Filling the Gap in 2030 MW We consider four 4,500 renewable energy 4,000 resource types, first as 3,500 "technology bookends" and then 3,000 as pieces of mixed 2,500 portfolios. 2,000 2-3 more RevWind contracts 1,700 MW 1,500 1,100 MW 1,300 MW 1,000 900 MW 500 0 Land-Based Wind Offshore Wind 3,600 MW 4,300 MW 2,700 MW Wholesale Solar 3,200 MW About 10x more DG Solar than currently installed FIGURE 5: CAPACITY OF EACH TECHNOLOGY NEEDED TO FILL 2030 RENEWABLE ENERGY GAP Retail Solar lili. 8#9Portfolio Costs These bars represent Market REC Purchases lili. net costs, after accounting for market revenues, to achieve each portfolio. Technology bookend. costs are compared to meeting the 100% goal by purchasing RECs in lieu of developing local renewable energy resources. RESOURCE COMPOSITION 100% 1 2 Land-Based Wind 100% Offshore Wind 100% 3 Wholesale Solar 100% 4 Retail Solar $0 TECHNOLOGY BOOKENDS $1,400M $2,000M $1,900M $2,100M $1,500M $3,000M $4,500M $4,500M $6,000M $7,500M FIGURE 13: NPV OF ABOVE-MARKET COSTS (2020-2040) OF ACHIEVING 100% RENEWABLES; BOOKENDS (NET OF ENERGY AND CAPACITY REVENUES, NOT RECS) Note: Ratepayer costs reflect the total incremental costs of achieving 100% net of energy and capacity revenues. 9#10Ratepayer Costs Portfolio costs will flow to ratepayers through electricity rates. Meeting 100% renewables will result in incremental costs relative to 2020 rates. Average Monthly Bill Increase for Typical Residential Customer +$13/mo +$11/mo +$14/mo +$32/mo $116/mo +$11/mo ¢/kWh 35 55 +1.6-5.1¢ 30 +0.8-4.6¢ +1.2-4.1¢ +1.1-3.2¢ 25 23.2¢ TAXES 20 20 TRANSM. 15 POLICY DISTRIB 10 5 SUPPLY +4.4-10.6¢ Note: Current 2020 rates can provide a reference point for the magnitude of the 2030 rate impact of increasing RES to 100%. This does not imply the other rate components will be the same in 2030 as in 2020. 0 2020 Basic Residential Rate A-16 Market REC Purchases 1.100% Land- 2. 100% Based Wind Offshore Wind FIGURE 15: 2030 RATE IMPACTS OF 100% RENEWABLE ELECTRICITY Notes: Assumes typical residential customer consumes 500 kWh/mo. 3. 100% 4. 100% Retail Wholesale Solar Solar lili. 10#11Policy Recommendations Policy is needed to establish a strong, statewide framework and reach our goals in ways that align with our foundational principles. P We must ensure we meet our clean energy goals by advancing a 100% Renewable Energy Standard. Continued efforts to decrease energy consumption necessitate extension of Least-Cost Procurement and Nation- Leading Energy Efficiency Programs. Maintaining continued. support for in-state development, while supporting programmatic evolution to deliver more affordable and sustainable outcomes. 12#12Planning and Enabling Recommendations We need to advance innovative, integrated, and collaborative planning to enable interconnection of clean energy onto the grid while minimizing costs and optimizing land use. 費 Optimize the electric grid through collborative, integrated grid planning. U Facilitate integration of distributed energy resources by advancing Power Sector Transformation and Grid Modernization. (J Build out a strategic role for energy storage technologies. Continue regional collaboration on wholesale markets and interstate transmission. 13#13Equity Recommendations E We must center equity and include community engagement in program design to improve access to clean energy benefits for all Rhode Islanders. Throughout this effort, we will identify and address systemic racism and historic inequities. $ Partner with trusted community organizations to listen, learn, support, and establish foundational definitions. Based on foundational definitions, develop equity metrics with the community to track and monitor progress towards equitable outcomes. Improve outcomes identified and prioritized by commuities through rate design, program adjustments, and policy. 14#14Vision for Integrated Grid Planning Rhode Island Heat Map + Find address or place HUG Rhode Collier Point Park Grace Island Hospital amate 三1 Huntingto Grove Cemete Dupont T Owens 0.4min 71 402 41 915 D 95 HILP St Street Park dia St India Point Park Waterfront 75 ft Picice Field 費 ienc Button. Legend Rhode Island Distribution Feeders % Based on 2021 Loads 0-50 50-70 70-80 80-90 90-95 95-100 100-99999 Metacomet Golf Club RI Substations Substations with Hosting Capacity Info Vet Memorial Pkwy 15#15Vision for Integrated Grid Planning Rhode Island Hosting Capacity Find address or place Q Brown Universi H Gano we St Street Park aterfront Dr ord St roadw nters 也 ckl Grace meta AVC Grove Cemetery 0.4mi 200 41 825 Dec outh mold Collier Point a St vitence 199 India Point Park Rhode Park Island Hospital Field 75 ft Sas St Saup St atin kett St Bri MIL 95 Metacomet Golf Club Veterans Memorial Pkwy ח. Legend Sutton A RI Substations Brown St N County St Substations with Hosting Capacity Info 費 ^ Hosting Capacity Feeder Data - Interconnected DG 3 Phase (kW) Less than 300 300-499 500-999 1000 - 1499 1500 - 1999 2000 - 2999 3000 - 4999 Greater than 5000 1 and 2 Phase 16#16Vision for Integrated Grid Planning How do we manage investment costs to enable electrification and renewable energy penetration in areas that match local preferences and achieve multiple policy objectives? X Should these investments be made ad hoc or are the cost/time efficiencies to larger upfront investments? To what extent can stakeholder engagement in the planning process lead to preferred outcomes for all? How can we best use the suite of distribution management tools available, including from third party providers? 17 費#17Non-Infrastructure Distribution Management Tools VERIE VEGAN GLUTEN FREE USA GROWN SUPPORTING PEOPLE WITH SPECIAL ABILITIES TEDDIE All Natural Smooth Since Peanut Butter NET WT 26 OZ (1 LB 10 OZ) 737g Statewide EE/DR and RE Programs Support statewide supply cost reductions, home and business utility bill management 18#18Non-Infrastructure Distribution Management Tools VERIE VEGAN GLUTEN FREE USA GROWN SUPPORTING PEOPLE WITH SPECIAL ABILITIES TEDDIE All Natural Smooth Since Peanut Butter NET WT 26 OZ (1 LB 10 OZ) 737g alamy Statewide EE/DR and RE Programs Support statewide supply cost reductions, home and business utility bill management Locational Outreach Enhanced outreach for cost- effective EE/DR/RE on heavily loaded feeders as pre- cursor to non-wires or wires investment alar 19#19Non-Infrastructure Distribution Management Tools VERIE VEGAN GLUTEN FREE USA GROWN SUPPORTING PEOPLE WITH SPECIAL ABILITIES TEDDIE All Natural Smooth Since Peanut Butter NET WT 26 OZ (1 LB 10 OZ) 737g alamy alar Statewide EE/DR and RE Programs Support statewide supply cost reductions, home and business utility bill management Locational Outreach Enhanced outreach for cost- effective EE/DR/RE on heavily loaded feeders as pre- cursor to non-wires or wires investment Non-Wires Solution Locational targeted incremental investment in EE/DR/RE to avoid more costly wires solution 20 20#20Non-Infrastructure Distribution Management Tools VERIE VEGAN GLUTEN FREE USA GROWN SUPPORTING PEOPLE WITH SPECIAL ABILITIES TEDDIE All Natural Smooth Since Peanut Butter NET WT 26 OZ (1 LB 10 OZ) 737g alamy alar SMUCKER'S OOBER Peanut Butter& Gaelly Stripes NET WT 18 02 (2102) 500 Grape AMERICA'S FAVORITE Statewide EE/DR and RE Programs Support statewide supply cost reductions, home and business utility bill management Locational Outreach Enhanced outreach for cost- effective EE/DR/RE on heavily loaded feeders as pre- cursor to non-wires or wires investment Non-Wires Solution Locational targeted incremental investment in EE/DR/RE to avoid more costly wires solution Cross-Utility Grid Management Electric EE/DR/RE programs may support non-pipe solutions for gas utility business 21#21An Under-Utilized Tool: Locational Outreach for EE/DR Cost-effective EE/DR We already know the EE/DR program is cost- effective, so additional outreach will - at minimum - result in net benefits May avoid NWA or Wires investment Non-wires solutions only considered once feeder is forecasted to reach >100% summer normal rating • Locational outreach can slow a feeder's loading May avoid investment expenses • Option value Slower load growth on heavily-loaded feeders may buy time to improve load forecast certainty May result in cost savings or process efficiency field a a ett Pier RI System Data Portal - Heat Map: https://ngrid.apps.nationalgrid.com/NGSysData Portal/RI/index.html West T Bristol Fall F#22Contact information 401-574-9121 Carrie A. Gill, Ph.D. Administrator, Grid Modernization and Systems Integration Rhode Island Office of Energy Resources [email protected] ④www.energy.ri.gov 23