#1successful FLAME UNIVERSITY Transformation of India What ever you say about India, Opposite is also true Cc kotak Mutual Fund 6p pro (4 Sights Copep Year Plans The views expressed in this presentation are through the period ending 31-May-23 and are subject to change at any time based on market and other conditions. This is not an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any security and should not be construed as such. References to specific securities and issuers are for illustrative purposes only and are not intended to be, and should not be interpreted as, recommendations to purchase or sell such securities#2Transformation of India - On Ground It is Work in Progress Ckotak Mutual Fund BEFORE Source: thebetterindia.com & thehindu.com 2#3Most Peers Outperformed India 221 Growth (x) in per capita GDP from 1960 to 2021 Korea 140 Ckotak Mutual Fund 83 81 68 45 32 28 27 13 13 China Japan Indonesia Thailand Malaysia Brazil Sri Lanka India South Africa Philippines Source: World Bank#4FLAME UNIVERSITY Skotak Mutual Fund From High Inflation to Moderate Inflation Through Inflation Targeting /Supply Side Management 4#5Indian Inflation Lower than US for 18 of last 21 months 9.0 8.0 7.0 6.0 5.0 4.0 Sep-21 Source: Bloomberg Oct-21 Nov-21 Dec-21 Jan-22 Feb-22 Mar-22 Apr-22 May-22 Jun-22 Jul-22 Aug-22 Sep-22 Oct-22 Nov-22 Dec-22 Jan-23 Feb-23 Ckotak Mutual Fund -India CPI -US CPI Mar-23 Apr-23 May-23 150#6FLAME UNIVERSITY Skotak Mutual Fund From FX Shortage to FX Surplus Through FDI / Remittances / Services Exports 6#7We had to pledge Gold to raise FX Loan in 90s Ckotak Mutual Fund In July 1991, the RBI pledged 46.91 tonnes of gold with the Bank of England and the Bank of Japan to raise $400 million but the government was quick to repurchase it months later as the situation improved. Written by Shaji Vikraman Twenty-five years ago, in January 1991, as India struggled to finance its essential imports, especially of oil and fertilisers, and to repay official debt, senior officials managing the economy in the Chandra Shekhar government reached out to influential members of the global financial system. It was in difficult circumstances that they did so: poor economic management in the preceding years had led to a rapidly deteriorating environment, made worse by the Gulf war that led to a spike in oil prices. Source: Indian Express 7#8We have the 4th largest FX reserves in the world Forex Reserves (in $ bn) Rank Country 1 China 3400 2 Japan 1254 3 Switzerland 912 4 India 593 5 Russia 585 Source: Wikipedia as on 30 May 2023 Ckotak Mutual Fund 8#9FLAME UNIVERSITY From Infrastructure Deficit to Infrastructure Availability Increased Allocation & Better Execution Skotak Mutual Fund 9#10Infrastructure Deficit was the norm The Missing Piece: India's Infrastructure By Peter Wonacott, Wall Street Journal Sept. 2, 2009 11:59 pm ET The urgency to fix India's broken infrastructure seems absent. Ckotak Mutual Fund The global downturn may drag on India's economy for years to come. But if India is to rise into the ranks of global economic powers, and reduce poverty at the same time, it must grow faster. A World Bank report released last year showed the number of Indians living below the $1.25 a day poverty line has increased to 455 million people, from 420 million in 1981. India's neighbour China has shown how infrastructure projects can be a powerful way to put people to work and boost growth, provided great amounts of time and money aren't wasted in the process. How long can Indians afford to wait before their government puts the nation's infrastructure in order? The dangers of missed opportunities are very real. Just look again at Delhi. Source: Wall Street Journal 10#1167=10 Ckotak Mutual Fund Sector Items Power Coal Production Total power capacity Total power generation Units FY13 FY23 FY24 million tons 610 892 1000 giga watt 223 412* 435 units 970 1600 Railways Cumulative rail electrification route kms 20,884 58,812 Highways Cumulative NH length kms 81,679 1,44,634# 1,65,00 0 Urban Airports No.s 70 141 200 Metro/Tube lines route kms 248 846 1,837 Ports Ports cargo MMTPA 1,400 2,822 Source: Investec, NHAI, MORTH, Centrum Equity, Spark Capital. * as on Dec 2022. # as on Nov 2022#12FLAME UNIVERSITY From Imports to "Make in India" Long way to Go Skotak Mutual Fund 12#13We Imported Locomotives THE ECONOMIC TIMES Industry English Edition | Today's Paper Ckotak Mutual Fund Home ETPrime Markets News Industry RISE Politics Wealth Mutual Funds Tech Jobs Opinion NRI Panache ET NOW More Auto Banking/Finance Cons. Products Energy Renewables ▼ Ind'l Goods/Svs Healthcare/Biotech ▼ Services ▾ Media/Entertainment ▾ More ▾ Business News > Industry > Transportation > Railways > India receives first GE locomotive under $2.5 billion deal Source: Economic Times India receives first GE locomotive under $2.5 billion deal 13#14Now We Manufacture Trains XX Image Courtesy: Wikipedia वंदे भारत EXPRESS- वाराणसी जंक्शन Ckotak Mutual Fund 14#15Magic has to extend to other Industries Net Exporter Of Mobile Phone (in $Bn) Net Exporter Of Toys (in $mn) kotak Mutual Fund 153.1 |!! -5.8 -7.7 -3.6 -3.3 0 2.8 3.3 0.9 11.2 -292.9 FY15 FY16 FY17 FY18 FY19 FY20 FY21 FY22 FY23 Source: Ministry of Commerce, FY denotes fiscal year which runs from April to March. FY22: Apr 2021 to March 2022 2017-18 -228.2 -158.0 2018-19 2019-20 15 -4.9#16FLAME UNIVERSITY Skotak Mutual Fund From Hidden NPAs to Provision for NPAs Disclosures & Regulatory Push 16#17Bank NPAs were below the Carpet युनाइटेड . बैंक ऑफ ऑफ़ इंडिया UNITED B BANK OF INDIA ALLAHABAD BANK (A Govt. of India Undertaking) ATION BANK . कार्पोरेश बैंक ६ सर्वे जनाः सुखिनो भवंतु Corporation Bank Ckotak Mutual Fund 价 UCO BANK IDBI BANK Oriental Bank of ओ. बी. सी. Commerce बैंक ऑफ़ इंडिया Bank of India Relationships beyond banking. सेन्ट्रल बैंक ऑफ़ इंडिया Central Bank of India LL ال इण्डियन ओवरसीज़ बैंक Indian Overseas Bank देना बैंक DENA BANK मुद्रे M M W 11. Bank of Maharashtra 17#18Source: RBI, Axis Capital 960 49 Mar'97 Mar 98 968 12% Mar 99 Mar '00 Mar 01 Mar 02 Mar 03 Mar 04 20% 16% Net NPAs at 25 year low System gross NPA at 4.5% of loans as of Dec'22 -Gross NPA ratio -- Net NPA ratio Mar 05 Mar 06 Mar 07 Mar 08 Mar 09 Mar'10 Mar'11 Mar'12 Mar'13 Mar'14 Mar'15 Mar'16 Mar'17 Mar'18 Mar'19 Mar 20 Mar 21 Mar 22 18 Jun 22 Sep 22 Dec 22 Mutual Fund kotak#19"Main Woh Nahi Hu” – SVC Bank - Ckotak svb> Silicon Valley Bank Mutual Fund * SVC BANK The Shamrao Vithal Co-operative Bank Ltd [Multi-State Scheduled Bank SVC Bank is completely unrelated to Silicon Valley Bank (SVB) that was based in California. - Bank Statement 19#20FLAME UNIVERSITY Skotak Mutual Fund Growth: Slow Lane to Fast Lane Need to sustain for a Long Distance 20 20#21G5 are De-growing relative to US, India is Growing relative to US 100 Size Of Economy Relative To U.S. 80 60 40 20 0 I.... US Source: International Monetary Fund ■2000 2022 Ckotak Mutual Fund Japan Germany UK France Italy India 21#22India is Growing relative to Peers 2008 33% of ORDEM E PROGRESSO 2022 100% of Source: Investec, NHAI, MORTH, Centrum Equity, Spark Capital ORDEM PROGRESSO + + kotak Mutual Fund 22 22#2323 23 Indian cities are the Fastest Growing Top 10 Cities With High GDP Growth in 2022 Source: Oxford Economics Ho Chi Minh Hyderabad Bengaluru Delhi Jakarta Mumbai Kuala Lampur Bangkok Chennai Kolkata Ckotak Mutual Fund#24India: From Coach to Engine Global growth projections kotak Mutual Fund 7 (% YoY) 6 5 4 3 2 1 0 India Emerging and Developing Asia China Emerging market and developing economies World USA Major advanced economies (G7) ■Pre covid average Post covid average Note: Pre-Covid = 2017-19, Post Covid = 2022-24 where 2023 and 2024 are IMF estimates; Source: IMF WEO April 2023, Elara Securities Research.#25FLAME UNIVERSITY From Imprudence to Prudence Freebies culture Skotak Mutual Fund 25#26The World is Imprudent,India is Prudent Advanced Economies: Nominal GDP and Public Debt 2007=100 400 -Nominal GDP -Public debt 350 300 250 200 150 100 50 Germany France Italy 0 2000 2005 2010 Source: Oxford economics/ Haver Analytics Spain UK 2005 2010 2005 2005 201 USA Canada 2010 2015 2020 2000-01 2002-03 2004-05 2006-07 2008-09 2010-11 2012-13 2014-15 2016-17 2018-19 2020-21 2022-23 Source: Elara Capital 26 Ckotak Mutual Fund India#27India is Prudent Despite Crisis Debt levels and change since 2008 (as percentage of GDP) Core debt of non-financial sector (Q1 2022, % OF GDP) Ckotak Mutual Fund Change since Q1 2008 Household Corporate Government Total Household Corporate Government Total Debt/GDP (Avg %) 61 84 104 249 4 10 48 62 Australia 118 64 57 239 11 -13 49 47 Brazil 38 54 88 180 20 23 26 69 Mainland China 62 157 70 289 43 62 41 France 65 166 129 360 19 61 61 847 147 141 Germany 56 73 74 203 -4 5 9 10 India 37 51 85 173 -6 -12 11 -6 Italy 43 70 154 267 Japan 60 119 249 428 52 -8 58 55 20 82 104 South Korea 104 117 45 266 34 29 23 86 Mexico 16 24 40 80 2 10 20 32 South Africa 34 34 69 137 -10 -1 44 33 Spain 57 98 154 309 -25 -28 114 61 UK 84 70 119 273 -10 -15 79 54 US 76 82 124 282 -23 11 61 49 Source: IF, BIS, IMF, National Sources, Note data taken from end- Q1 2008 and end-Q1 2022 27#28FLAME UNIVERSITY From Kal to Aaj to Kal Skotak Mutual Fund 28#29Figure 7. GDP of Key Nations: 0-2004 A.D. 100% 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% 1000 1500 1600 1700 - India is going back to where it belongs Ckotak Mutual Fund 1820 Time scale Source: Maddison (OECD publication); Groningen Growth & Dipmnt Cent, University of Groningen; Smith Bamey estimates. 1870 1913 1950 1973 - 1998 2004 29 20 China India USA Japan #Germany ROW#30States = India ৫ Maharashtra Karnataka Tamil Nadu Gujarat UP + Uttarakhand 2005 2001 2000 India kotak Mutual Fund 'S 200 mi#31Amul : Numero Uno, Local to Global Source: Amul Co-operative Society Annual Report Ckotak Mutual Fund By 2047, our centenary year, we estimate that Amul group should be able achieve a turnover of Rs 18,00,000 crore ($220 billion), from Rs 61,000 crore ($ 7.4 billion) recorded in the previous financial year - Excerpt from Amul Annual Report-FY 22#32FLAME UNIVERSITY From Videshi to Swadeshi Skotak Mutual Fund 32#33We Have Forgotten Be Indian Buy Indian 33 Ckotak Mutual Fund#34Trade Deficit Nilesh Shah @NileshShah68 Be Indian Buy Chinese seems to be our motto. Ckotak Mutual Fund Trade imbalance India's trade with China has risen sharply in recent years, but the growth has been rather one-sided (In $ billion) India's exports India's imports Trade Total Our trade deficit with China is $ 474 billion in last 8 years. to China from China deficit trade 2 2015 44.86 71.66 While many imports from China are necessary (bulk drugs/APIs), there are many which can be substituted. 2016 47.68 71.18 2017 51.76 84.44 Like Toys, we need to copy it across many other industries. 4:31 PM - May 1, 2023 72.4K Views 2018 58.04 95.7 2019 56.95 92.9 2020 45.91 87.65 98 Retweets 14 Quotes 388 Likes 14 Bookmarks 27 2021 17.49 69.56 125.62 Σ I 2022 118.77 101.28 136.26 0 20 40 60 80 100 Source: Indian embassy to China 34 == THE MORNING CONTEXT#35FLAME UNIVERSITY From Inequality to Equality Skotak Mutual Fund 35#36Consumption Remains Below Pre-Pandemic Level Rs. Trn, sa 25 Pre-pandemic trend 20 20 15 10 15 Ckotak Mutual Fund Actual 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 Share of Bottom 20% of Population in consumption fell from 6% (pre Covid) to 3% during Covid and is at 4.5% in FY23E Source: MoSPI, J.P.Morgan 36#374 Dec-19 10 12 8.3 8 00 9 4.6 Mar-20 Jun-20 Source: RBI, Avendus Spark Research Source: SIAM, Avendus Spark Research Sep-20 Tale of 2 India's continues Pre-Covid (CY19) Post-Covid (CY22) % Volume (in Value Volume Value Change '000) (Rs. bn) (in '000) (Rs. bn) vs. CY19 < Rs. 700,000 1,022 511 978 489 -4.3% > Rs. 700,000 1,781 2,137 2,679 3,215 50.5% Total 2,803 2,648 3,658 3,705 39.9% Dec-20 Non-priority sector Mar-21 Home loan outstanding (Rs. tn) 9.1 5.8 Jun-21 Sep-21 Dec-21 Mar-22 Priority sector 6.2 Jun-22 12.8 60 10.7 50 Sep-22 Dec-22 0 10 Sep-18 20 30 3 43 40 Dec-18 Mar-19 Jun-19 Sep-19 Source: Gol, Avendus Spark Research Ckotak Mutual Fund 23% 46% 33% Residential home sale (3 Year CAGR, %) Affordable + Mid-segment sales 33% Premium and luxury sales 32% 31% 26% 24% 23% 15% Ia adala 3% 1% 7% 9% -4% -5% Hyderabad Pune NCR Chennai MMR Bangalore Kolkata Tier-I Cities Dec-19 Mar-20 Featurephone Volume (mn) 54 Smartphone Volume (mn) 48 Jun-20 44 25 29.6 19 Sep-20 Dec-20 Mar-21 Jun-21 Sep-21 Dec-21 Mar-22 Jun-22 37 B2 Sep-22 Dec-22 15.0#38Consumption needs to be supported Total Railway - Non Suburban passenger booked in April-Feb(Millions) 2019-20 3318 2022-23 2360 Ckotak Mutual Fund Decline Millions % -958 -29 10086 90% 80% 7096 60% 5096 40% 30% 208% 10% 05% 01/04/2013 01/07/2013 1102/10/10 ICZ/10/10 VICZ/10/10 | ETCZ/01/10 Source: NPCI, RBI, Equirus % of Manufacturing IP sub-sectors from baselie of April of 2022 01/10/2014 01/01/2015 01/04/2015 negative 9002/01/10 91.02/10/10 9102/10/10 9102/10/10 STOZ/01/10 STOZ/10/10 zero to 2% 01/01/2017 01/04/2017 01/07/2017 01/10/2017 01/01/2018 two to 5% 8702/10/10 8102/01/10 6102/10/10 6702/10/10 8102/10/10 five to 10% 01/07/2019 6102/01/10 002/10/10 02/10/10 0202/01/10 002/10/10 01/01/2021 01/04/2021 greater than 10% 1202/20/10 01/10/2021 01/01/2022 01/04/2022 38 01/07/2022#39Growth has to be Inclusive Ckotak Mutual Fund Over 80 crore Indians to get free ration for one year under Food Security Act LiveMint, Updated: Dec 24, 2022, 10:26 AM IST mint Source: Live Mint 39#40FLAME UNIVERSITY From Individual to Institution Skotak Mutual Fund 40#41Legislature Institutions Over Individuals Executive Pillars of Democracy DEMOCRACY Judiciary Press Ckotak Mutual Fund#42Press Buying Russian oil is rubble wise but rupee foolish. It bloodies India's hands US has no moral rectitude to deliver ethical sermons. But regardless, India must take a holistic view in purchasing oil from Russia-it's not a rosy picture. Ckotak Mutual Fund ThePrint How India's Modi helped save the West by NIKKEI Asia buying Russian oil World may have faced economic crisis without India playing role of villain 42 42#43Judiciary Bernie Madoff TOI Irving Picard Over 33 lakh cheque-bounce cases are clogging the legal system currently While the finance ministry is now mulling several new punitive steps to tackle the problem, there's no easy fix in sight 43 33 Ckotak Mutual Fund#44Executive યૂનિયન બેંક ખોફન કાપોહ શાખ UNION HEAD OFFICE यूनियन बैंक ऑफ इंडिया OF INDIA SURAT RK Rao GR Khairnar kotak Mutual Fund 44#45Legislature Ckotak Mutual Fund Venezuela South Africa 45 45#46FLAME UNIVERSITY What will be the Risk? Skotak Mutual Fund 46#47Risk of Self Goal Sanand Ckotak Mutual Fund Singur Nano tale of two cities: Sanand rejoices, Singur rues 47#48We have to capture China + 1 North America Shift in manufacturing for 135 companies as per our current tracker 18% - China 135 Companies CJ בים Europe CH 2% 149 Indis 7% 1% Bangladesh 2% " Thailand Cambodia 1% 6% 9% Japan South Korea GHI Taiwan 27% 5% Vietnam Toys Semiconductors & Comp EV battery Computers & Comp Auto and Auto parts Smartphones & Comp Appliances Electronics Apparel & footwear Bicycle Medical Supplies Tools and Machine 7% Malaysia & Singapore @³ (4) ► Source: Bernstein Indonesia HH kotak Mutual Fund 36#49Create well paying Jobs Share of contract workers among total industrial workers Source: Annual Survey of Industries Ckotak Mutual Fund Share (in %) 25 100 21.8 23.1 24.6 26.5 75 50 78. 5 29.9 31 31.9 32.8 33.9 34.6 34.2 33.6 35.3 35.5 36 36.4 37.6 38.5 71.6 70.1 66.1 65.4 66.4 64 61.5 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Category Year Contract Workers Workers include those who are directly involved in a manufacturing process The sum of direct and contract workers make up the total industrial workforce accor 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Direct Workers to ASI CEZA 49 49#50kotak Mutual Fund Create Globally competitive Manufacturing NEARLY 20% FACTORIES HAVE OVER 100 WORKERS Number of Number of factories (in '000) employees 0-14 15-19 20-29 30-49 50-99 16.7 20.2 22.5 24.6 100-199 16.9 200-499 500-999 1,000-1,999 12.4 5.1 2.5 2,000-4,999 1.6 5,000 & above 0.8 Sources: Business Standard 75.1 Source: Annual Survey of Industries 2019-2020 50 50#51Change Investment pattern to Fund Investment 15 GO 20 NET 100 Tine GOLD 2 NET WT 1000 NET Gross Official Gold Imports $ 567 billion Net Official Gold Imports $ 373 billion Net FDI $ 357 billion Source: Elara Capital. Note: Data is for the year from 2000 to 2022 Ckotak INVESTOR FII Equity Flows $ 182 billion FII Debt Flows Total FII Flows $ 54 billion $236 billion 51 Mutual Fund#52FLAME UNIVERSITY Skotak Mutual Fund What will be the Risk & Reward? 52 42#53India Rewards Risk Taker Automobile Performance (CAGR returns in USD terms) Ckotak Mutual Fund 21.4% I 7.0% 5.6% 4.1% 3.5% 2.0% Maruti Suzuki I Honda Toyota Suzuki Nissan GM Ford India Japan -2.7% US Source: Bloomberg, Data from Maruti listing date i.e. July 8, 2003 to May 31, 2023. Data for GM from November 18, 2010. 10.7% 9.6% 9.0% I Volkswagen Mercedes I Hyundai Germany South Korea 593#54Stay Put despite challenges 虎穴に入らずんば虎子を得ず If you do not enter the tiger's cave, you will not catch its cub. Ckotak Mutual Fund#55What leopards can visit in the near term Ckotak Mutual Fund Probabilit Impact Inflation Rates Rupee Equity Events y Mysterious High High Buyer + + El-Nino High Low Freebies High ? MSCI Change Medium High ↑ Election ? High 2024 +++#56FLAME UNIVERSITY Skotak Mutual Fund Thank You I haven't met any one who can predict Market#57Disclaimers & Risk Factors Ckotak Mutual Fund The document/video includes statements/opinions which contain words or phrases such as "will", "believe", "expect" and similar expressions or variations of such expressions, that are forward looking statements. Actual results may differ materially from those suggested by the forward looking statements due to risk or uncertainties associated with the statements mentioned with respect to but not limited to exposure to market risks, general and exposure to market risks, general economic and political conditions in India and other countries globally, which have an impact on our services and/or investments, the monetary and interest policies of India, inflation, deflation, unanticipated turbulence in interest rates, foreign exchange rates, equity prices or other rates or prices etc. The information contained in this (document) is extracted from different public sources. All reasonable care has been taken to ensure that the information contained herein is not misleading or untrue at the time of publication. This is for the information of the person to whom it is provided without any liability whatsoever on the part of Kotak Mahindra Asset Management Co Ltd or any associated companies or any employee thereof.We are not soliciting any action based on this material and is for general information only. Investors should consult their financial advisors if in doubt about whether the product is suitable for them before investing. The views expressed in this presentation are subject to change at any time based on market and other conditions. This is not an offer or solicitation for the purchase or sale of any security and should not be construed as such. References to specific securities and issuers are for illustrative purposes only and are not intended to be, and should not be interpreted as, recommendations to purchase or sell such securities. These materials are not intended for distribution to or use by any person in any jurisdiction where such distribution would be contrary to local law or regulation. The distribution of this document in certain jurisdictions may be restricted or totally prohibited and accordingly, persons who come into possession of this document are required to inform themselves about, and to observe, any such restrictions. Mutual Fund investments are subject to market risks, read all scheme related documents carefully. 57 40