#1REmap A Renewable Energy Roadmap ROADMAP FOR A RENEWABLE ENERGY FUTURE Dr Dolf Gielen - Director IITC, 28 July, 2016, Santo Domingo#2REmap A Renewable Energy Roadmap About IRENA IRENA International Renewable Energy Agency 2#3REmap A Renewable Energy Roadmap O IRENA International Renewable Energy Agency International Renewable Energy Agency - IRENA MANDATE To promote the widespread adoption and sustainable use of all forms of renewable energy worldwide OBJECTIVE To serve as a network hub, an advisory resource and an authoritative, unified, global voice for renewable energy SCOPE All renewable energy sources produced in a sustainable manner BIOENERGY GEOTHERMAL HYDROPOWER OCEAN SOLAR WIND ENERGY ENERGY ENERGY ENERGY 3#4REmap A Renewable Energy Roadmap IRENA's Membership 149 Members 27 States in Accession IRENA International Renewable Energy Agency Mandate: Assist countries to accelerate RE deployment 4#5REmap A Renewable Energy Roadmap IRENA International Renewable Energy Agency SIDS Lighthouses Initiative Launched on 23 September 2014 at the Climate Summit, 34 SIDS & 19 Development Partners STRATEGIC OBJECTIVE: Enabling a sustainable energy transformation for people on the front line of climate change on small islands around the world Enhancing energy independence and economic prosperity on SIDS MAIN ELEMENTS: Accelerated RE deployment in the power sector Well structured systems transitions Information Exchange Capacity Building TARGETS by 2020: USD 500 mil mobilized 100 MW of new solar PV 20 MW of new wind Significant quantities of other RE technologies All participating SIDS have RE roadmaps 5#6REmap A Renewable Energy Roadmap About the REmap programme IRENA International Renewable Energy Agency 6#7REmap A Renewable Energy Roadmap REmap IRENA International Renewable Energy Agency >> IRENA's Global Renewable Energy Roadmap >> Shows feasible, cost-effective ways to increase renewable energy deployment in world's energy mix by 2030 in line with SDG7 » Identifies concrete technology options for countries and sectors » Assesses policy and investment implications » Outlines benefits (economic, social, environmental) » In cooperation with 50 countries. » 30 publications to date IRENA Agency IRENA REmap 4. Preble Enegy Pom REmap A Renewable Energy Roadmap ROADMAP FOR A RENEWABLE ENERGY FUTURE 2016 EDITION REmap 2030 A Global Renewable Energy Roadmap Summary of findings June 2014 7#8REmap A Renewable Energy Roadmap REmap 2016 edition highlights O IRENA International Renewable Energy Agency 0000000000 18% 21% 25% 26% 30% 36% 2014 REmap Options Reference Case Universal access to modern energy with renewables Doubling energy efficiency improvement rate Doubling Options Doubling the share of renewable energy by 2030 is critical for the achievement of sustainable energy and climate change objectives Doubling renewables in the world's energy mix by 2030 will lead to savings exceeding costs up to 15 times The transition to renewables, with greater energy efficiency, can limit the global temperature increase to below 2 degrees Doubling the share of renewable energy by 2030 is feasible, but only with immediate, concerted action in transport, buildings and industry Doubling the world's renewable energy share requires concerted action, reinforcing growth in renewables with energy efficiency and universal access - the three pillars of SDG 7 8#9REmap A Renewable Energy Roadmap IRENA International Renewable Energy Agency REmap Dominican Republic, main findings#10REmap A Renewable Energy Roadmap IRENA International Renewable Energy Agency The energy situation in the Dominican Republic and the renewable energy drivers Key facts of the energy system Demand is growing fast, 2% per annum in the past decade USD 5 billion per annum of fossil fuel imports, 7% of GDP and 90% of primary energy supply High operating costs of power generation, system largely based on hydrocarbons Electricity subsidies USD 1 billion per annum, 2% of GDP Electrification rate is 96%, lack of electricity access mostly in rural areas RE drivers → Affordable and sustainable energy supply Energy diversification Energy independence Reduce the energy bill Reduce GHG emissions Energy access 10#11REmap A Renewable Energy Roadmap O IRENA International Renewable Energy Agency General Sector-specific Existing measures to integrate renewable energy . · The Law 57-07 provides a broad range of fiscal and financial incentives for power, liquid biofuels, solar thermal and storage technologies Climate change NDC target: 25% reduction of GHG emissions by 2030 compared to 2010 the level in 2010 (3.6 tonnes of CO2-eq per capita) Power The Law 57-07, set a non-binding renewable energy target of 10% and 25% for 2015 and 2025 respectively Net-metering (residential and comercial) Rural electrification carried out with RE technologies (small hydro and PV) Transport End-use sectors The Law 57-07 includes provisions for liquid biofuels: basis to implement blending mandates; fiscal incentives; reference price setting Buildings and Industry Law 57-07 provides fiscal incentives for bioenergy production and solar thermal installations Note: Fiscal and financial incentives of Law 57-07 include: exepmtion on income and import taxes; reduced taxes on external financing; low interest loans for community projects. 11#12REmap A Renewable Energy Roadmap Total final energy mix in 2014 in the Dominican Republic TFEC in 2014 - 5 433 ktoe 0.1% Solar thermal 2% Natural gas 14% Bioenergy* 60% Oil products 76% Direct uses of energy for heat, cooking and transport 24% Electricity IRENA International Renewable Energy Agency Solar PV Bioenergy 0.1% 1% Wind onshore 1.5% Hydropower Coal 9% 12% Natural gas 24% Oil products 52% *including 7.6% traditional biomass use Electricity generation Total: 18 TWh RE share: 11.5% In 2014, the RE share in total final energy of the Dominican Republic stood at 16.3% (8.7% modern renewables and 7.6% traditional bioenergy use) Power generation is predominantly based on hydrocarbons Source: IRENA estimates based on national energy balances TFEC: total final energy consumption; ktoe: kilotonne of oil equivalent; PV: photovoltaic 12#13REmap A Renewable Energy Roadmap Energy developments to 2030 in the Reference Case (baseline) IRENA International Renewable Energy Agency Based on preliminary results of the CNE energy demand projections for 2013-2030 other data for the power sector shared by CNE Total energy demand to grow by 41% in 2010-2030 to 7 685 ktoe Share of modern RE in final energy mix reaches 13% in 2030 Power sector Doubling of annual electricity generation from 18 TWh to 36 TWh Coal generation 10 TWh, oil 12.2 TWh (mainly fuel oil and diesel), natural gas 5.3 TWh by 2030 RE share in the power sector reaches 21%, compared to 11.5% in 2014: mainly hydropower and wind onshore Renewables in end-use sectors see limited additions (mainly bioenergy) 13#14REmap A Renewable Energy Roadmap O IRENA International Renewable Energy Agency What could be achieved based on REmap Options Renewable energy share 50% 45% 40% 35% 30% 3x 25% 2x 20% 15% 12010 2014 Reference Case 2030 ■REmap 2030 10% 5% 0% TFEC Power generation Transport Buildings Industry End-use sectors The modern RE share in final energy use in REmap can double in 2030 with respect to the Reference Case (baseline) and triple when compared to 2014 Note: End-use sectors include renewable energy consumption from direct uses and electricity; RE share in Buildings and TFEC excludes traditional uses of bioenergy 14#15REmap A Renewable Energy Roadmap IRENA International Renewable Energy Agency What is the mix of renewables in the baseline and what can be realised in REmap by 2030 Shares of total RE use in TFEC by technology and sector RE use in the Reference Case: 1234 ktoe 25% Bioenergy for process heat-industry 54% Heat and other direct uses 20% Traditional bioenergy-buildings 7% Modern bioenergy-buildings RE use in REmap: 2080 ktoe Liquid biofuels- transport 2% Hydropower Transport 22% 22% Bioenergy for Power 2% 44% 39% Heat and other direct uses Liquid biofuels- transport 7% Hydropower 14% process heat-industry Transport Power 7% 54% 7% Onshore wind 14% Modern bioenergy- buildings 0.2% Solar energy for cooling-industry Bioenergy power 6% Solar PV 1% Solar energy for process heat-industry 2% 5% Solar energy Solar energy for water heating-buildings 2% for cooling-buildings 4 Onshore wind 21% Bioenergy power 9% Solar PV Solar energy for water heating- buildings 10% 4% Reference Case: 13% modern RE share and 3% traditional bioenergy REmap: 27% modern RE share (all traditional uses of biomass substituted) Total RE use attains 2 080 ktoe by 2030 with REmap Options, half of it is from modern bioenergy Onshore wind and solar technologies also play a major role 15#16REmap A Renewable Energy Roadmap Power generation capacity developments 12,000 Installed Capacity (MW) 10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 2,000 0 2010 2014 Historical Bioenergy Reference Case REmap 2030 IRENA International Renewable Energy Agency Solar PV Onshore wind Coal Natural Gas Hydropower Oil products All RE sources for power generation have the potential to grow beyond current plans by 2030 16#17REmap A Renewable Energy Roadmap O IRENA International Renewable Energy Agency Cost-supply curve of REmap Options, government perspective Average substitution cost (USD/GJ) 110 100 90 80 70 Reference Case 10 -10 -20 89.99 -30 -40 -50 -60 -70 -80 0% Bioenergy Electric vehicles Advanced biogasoline Bioenergy power PV utility ▼Biogas Liquid biofuels Solar heating/cooling Solar PV (distributed generation) Wind onshore Solar cooling 13% Share of modern renewable energy in total final consumption (%) 27% More than 80% of REmap Options are cost-competitive when compared to the non-renewable energy alternative 17#18REmap A Renewable Energy Roadmap O IRENA International Renewable Energy Agency CO2 emission reductions from RE would be an important step to achieve the targets in the NDC Energy use CO₂ emissions (Mt/year) 40 35 Other GHG 30 emissions 25 Reference Case emissions 35 Mt 23% reduction 20 15 10 Energy use CO2 emissions Energy use CO2 emissions in REmap LO 5 0 2010 REmap 2030 8 Mt CO₂ emissions Reduction In 2030 due to REmap Options Target: 25% GHG emissions reduction by 2030, compared to 3.6 tonnes CO2-eq per capita in 2010 Lower fossil fuel combustion from renewables in REmap reduces energy related CO2 emissions to 2.3 tonnes per capita per year by 2030, compared to 2.9 tonnes per capita in the Reference Case 18#19REmap A Renewable Energy Roadmap IRENA International Renewable Energy Agency The energy transition is affordable and makes economic sense Annual energy system costs and savings in 2030 (Government perspective, Remap vs Reference Case) (USD million per year in 2030) System costs from REmap Options Industry Buildings Transport Power Savings from reduced externalities Reduced human health externalities (indoor and outdoor air pollution) Reduced externalities from climate change System costs from Remap Options and reduced externalities Incremental subsidy needs -1 020 -165 -130 190 -915 1 060 to 4 280 900 to 3500 160 to 760 -2 075 to -5 300 160 REmap could result in savings of up to USD 5.3 billion per year in 2030 Most of the RE options are cost-effective; most expensive options are found in the transport sector (under government perspective) 19#20REmap A Renewable Energy Roadmap IRENA International Renewable Energy Agency Investment needs by RE source Investments (annual average between today and 2030) (USD million per year in 2030) Total investment needs (REmap Options) Total RE investment needs (REmap Options and Reference Case) 2015-2030 422 680 Average annual investment needs in REmap by sector RE technology and sector, average 2015-2030 Investment needs (USD million/year) 250 200 150 100 50 ■Reference Case Remap Options Investment needs (USD million/year) Buildings 35 Transport 12 Industry 82 Hydropower Wind onshore Solar PV Solar heating/cooling Bioenergy CHP Bioenergy power- only Bioenergy direct uses Liquid biofuels Annual investment needs for REmap at USD 680 million in 2015-2030 Addition of USD 422 million to Reference Case 80% of investments in power sector 20 Power 550#21REmap A Renewable Energy Roadmap Growth in selected technologies Solar thermal/ Modern Electric Bioenergy bioenergy cooling Bioenergy Liquid biofuels vehicles heating buildings buildings power Wind Solar PV onshore 85 MW 18 MW 225 MW 70 MW 180 MW 448 MW 850 MW 860 MW 2 300 MW IRENA International Renewable Energy Agency Growth 2014-Remap 2030 x25 x100 x6 250 thousand m² 810 thousand m² x7 1880 thousand m² 2.9 PJ 3.3 PJ 6.2 PJ 10 PJ 13 PJ 19 PJ x2 x2 720 000 vehicles 3 million litres 2014 32 million litres Reference Case 2030 243 million litres REmap 2030 21#22REmap A Renewable Energy Roadmap IRENA International Renewable Energy Agency REmap Dominican Republic, challenges and action areas to an accelerated RE growth 22#23REmap A Renewable Energy Roadmap IRENA International Renewable Energy Agency Institutional and economic challenges in the power sector Long-term vision needs to emerge with intermediate renewable energy targets and necessary incentives to realise the RE potential Maintain consistency between the national energy plan and national development strategies Provide a stable and attractive environment for investment, based on strong institutional and regulatory frameworks Regulatory framework that allows the implementation of the changes required in the planning and operational procedures of the power sector, to integrate large shares of VRE 23#24REmap A Renewable Energy Roadmap O IRENA International Renewable Energy Agency Generation adequacy and flexibility needs At least 4 GW of dispatchable generation (both renewable and non- renewable) required To cover peak power demand with low VRE generation Incorporating flexibility needs into long-term generation expansion plans with corresponding intermediate targets is essential Appropriate financial mechanisms are required in order to guarantee that the firm capacity, alongside flexibility services are available. Financial mechanisms should consider the new reduced utilisation Power (MW) 5000 Peak-Demand- 4000 Peak Residual Demand 3000 2000 Wind + Solar PV 1000 Dispatchable plants 0 Min Demand 2030 Curtailment at 55% instant penetration limit Curtailment at 75% instant penetration limit Min Residual Demand 2030 40 80 100 120 -1000 0 20 60 Percent of hours of the year (%, sorted) Load Duration Curve in 2030 Residual Load Duration Curve in 2030 Load Duration Curve in 2015 Dispatchable capacity (no hydro) of dispatchable plants Conventional generation would be used less amount of time, but still required; incentives should ensure that this type of generation is available 24#25REmap A Renewable Energy Roadmap IRENA International Renewable Energy Agency Transmission system needs HAITI Monte Cristi Valverde Dajabón Santiago Elias Piña Independencia Puerto Plata Espaillat Maria Trinidad Sanchez Hermanas Mirabal Rodriguez Santiago San Juan Baoruco Barahona La Vega Monseñor Nouel Duarte Sanchez Ramirez Monte Plata Samaná Hato Mayor El Seibo San José Azua de Ocoa San Cristóbal Santo Domingo La Altagracia San Pedro Dato Nacional La Romana de Macoris Peravia Wind: location based on assessment by the Worldwatch Insitute Solar PV: installed close to the main load centres this includes distributed generation and utility scale projects in Santiago and Santo Domingo areas Pedemales Main wind potential zones Main load centres CAN REPUBLIC DOMINICAN HAITI Sierra de Neiba Lage Enriquillo Sierra de Bahoruco Overview diagram of existing transmission system and power generation plants Source: CNE maps, http://mapas.cne.gob.do/ Jaragua Rio Caña Rio Mao Armando Alto Bermudez Bao Jose del Car Rar Sanam de Ja Maguana Cabe de Tor Merto quater Rio Santiago Valle Nuevo San Francisco de Macon's Hatillo Sierra Azua de Com Martin ompostela Garcia rahona 851 m Los Haitises 737 m ם Higüey San Pedro de Macoris La Romana Parque Nacional del Este 25#26Power (MW) Power (MW) REmap A Renewable Energy Roadmap IRENA International Renewable Energy Agency 400 Transmission system adequacy 300 200 100 0 -100 -200 Sur Profundo (node) South region 600 400 200 0 -200 -400 -600 0 20 40 60 Residual load duration curve Current transmission limit ** 80 100 Percent of hours of year (% sorted) ** Source: Transmission system restrictions study for 2016-2019, OC-SENI 2015 Transmission network analysis: Production of wind power and demand for power was calculated for each subzone Net load (power demand minus VRE generation) can be negative This means that there would be a need to export power from these, to other subzones Transmission system must be expanded so that Wind power can be transmitted to the bigger load centres Otherwise curtailments due to transmission congestions are likely Transmission system planning must be coordinated with VRE projects Strategies for financing the required network upgrades must be investigated 26#27• REmap A Renewable Energy Roadmap IRENA International Renewable Energy Agency Instantaneous penetration of VRE Instant Penetration (%) 120 100 80 60 60 40 40 20 20 No curtailment 75% limit 55% limit Up-to 10% of total electricity that could be generated by renewables by 2030 may need to be curtailed to guarantee system security (55% limit) The use of the most up-to-date technologies and operational practices in the future may help reduce curtailment to less than 2% (75% limit) 20 40 60 80 100 Percent of hours of the year (%, sorted) System must be carefully analysed to identify penetration limits • Reasons for the constraints must be identified and solved Required and acceptable levels of curtailment have to be evaluated • Forward looking grid codes and operational practices could help to allow higher instantaneous penetration of VRE 27#28REmap A Renewable Energy Roadmap IRENA International Renewable Energy Agency III Key policy recommendations Power sector RE targets consistent with national strategies and a stable institutional and regulatory framework with the right economic incentives Enough dispatchable generation to provide firm capacity and flexibility Transmission planning in line with RE targets and different balancing measures to manage grid congestion Generation and transmission capacity measures that enable economic levels of curtailment of renewable energy • Appropriate incentives and market mechanisms for flexibility End-use sectors Codes and standards for buildings and urban planning that consider RE Strategy for RE use in industry considering techno-economic factors Create a market for liquid biofuels and promote electric mobility Targets for bioenergy use in applications lacking other RE alternatives 28#29REmap A Renewable Energy Roadmap IRENA International Renewable Energy Agency Next steps, how to support the Dominican Republic on its energy transition 29#30REmap A Renewable Energy Roadmap IRENA International Renewable Energy Agency Further power system studies Achieving the REmap case requires further detailed technical and economic studies focusing on operating and planning the interconnected systems with high shares of variable renewable energy IRENA could support the Dominican Republic during the realization of these in-depth studies particularly in the next areas: • Long-term planning models adapted to account for high shares of VRE • Dispatch optimization of a power mix with high VRE, to shed light on operating costs, reliability constraints, etc. Power system studies to identify VRE limits and transmission constraints 30#31REmap A Renewable Energy Roadmap IRENA International Renewable Energy Agency Project Navigator Online tool for the development of bankable projects: technology information, tools, templates, case studies and examples » Technology coverage: » Onshore wind » Utility and residential PV » Mini-grids » Small hydro >> Bioenergy » Geothermal IRENA PROJECT NAVIGATOR IRENA International Renewable Energy Agency Home Learning section Start a project Financial Navigator My account IRENA 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Choose from the Quick Access tiles below! News 13 May, 2015 "Introduction to the IRENA Project Navigator Webinar 5-6 May, 2015 2nd Project Navigator Workshop, Ulaanbaatar, Mongolia 22 April, 2015 Project Navigator Launched » Finance opportunities » 2000 active users Learning section Start a project Learn about project development Create a project workspace Copyright © 2014-2014 IRENA International Renewable Energy Agency. All rights reserved. Terms and Conditions Financial Navigator Find funding opportunities Visit us: www.irena.org/navigator You Tobe 31#32REmap A Renewable Energy Roadmap IRENA International Renewable Energy Agency The Sustainable Energy Marketplace Objective: to support initiation, development and financing of sustainable energy projects by: » Improving the transparency of the market » Offering IRENA's tools and databases for market players » Supporting projects at the development stage Map Satellite North Pacific Ocean South Pacific Canada Kingdom Poland Ukraine Kazakhstan Mongolia Germany Japan North China South Korea Pacific Ocean France bain. States North Atlantic Ocean Turkey iraq Iran Algeria Libya Egypt Afghanistan Pakistan Saudi Arabia India Thailand Sudag Chad Brazil Ocean Arcentina New Zealand Google South Atlantic Ocean South Africa zania Madagascar Indian Ocean Indonesia Papua New Guinea Australia New Zealand Map data ©2016 Terms of Use Report a map error ACCESS TO CARIBBEAN PORTAL About the Marketplace ACCESS TO LATIN AMERICA PORTAL The Sustainable Energy Marketplace is a virtual platform that gathers all renewable energy actors and IRENA's expertise and work to pursue together the deployment of renewable energies in developing countries. The marketplace aims to scale up the existing global investment and support the channeling of public and private finance to meet the demand in the market. Project developers, financiers, service and technology suppliers can register and work together to realize projects and bring energy where it is still needed. ACCESS TO AFRICA PORTAL In order to support project development and financing IRENA will assess projects in more detail and co- operate closely with international financing institutions, donors, private sector advisors and service providers to actively facilitate the market. Market players can communicate with IRENA through the platform to indicate their specific needs and interests. 32#33CIRENA International Renewable Energy Agency Thank you! Remap MMAA ROADMAP FOR A RENEWABLE ENERGY FUTURE Dr Dolf Gielen [email protected] www.irena.org/remap