#1WPGA Conference 2017 The Pecan Industry in Chihuahua, Mexico: Challenges and Successes LOGRAR PARA DAR AUTONOMA ICO STATE M 1888 DE UNIV Dr. Julio López-Díaz Universidad Autónoma de Chihuahua [email protected] Dr. Esteban Herrera NMSU Professor Emeritus#2Acknowledgements M.S. Víctor Esparza NMSU alumnus & President of the Mexican Pecan System- Product Committee (COMENUEZ) 2#3Today's Talk • Pecan Industry's Overview: o National and Chihuahua State Levels . Topics: ○ Production o International trade ○ Acreage o Market and marketing o Tendencies o Challenges and Successes 3#4Main Pecan-Producing States in Mexico Sonora Chihuahua Durango Coahuila 3% 4% Chihuahua 6% NL ■Sonora 10% Coahuila Durango 12% ■Nuevo León 65% Others Source: SIAP-SAGARPA 4#5Mexican Pecan Growers: How are they organized? Consejo Mexicano Productores de Nuez ▸COMENUEZ Comité Mexicano del Sistema Producto Nuez National Level C State Level Local Level CONSEJO DE PRODUCTORES CPNCh DE NUEZ DE AGRICOLA CRICOLAL LOCAL, CHIHUAHUA A.C ASOCIACIONA UCTORES DE NOGAL ΖΞΩΝ Α DELICIAS Regional Associations SPNuez CHIHUAHUA 5#6Mexico's Pecan Production (MT) 120,000 100,000 80,000 60,000 40,000 20,000 125,758 122,714 MT 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 1,000 lbs 2014-277,246 2015- 270,535 Source: SIAP-SAGARPA 6#7140,000 Production by State 60,000 40.000 20,000 0 120,000 Pecan Production 2015 (MT) 100,000 79,934 80.000 15,028 12,509 7,143 3.354 4,746 Chihuahua Sonora Coahuila Durango Nuevo León Others Total 122,714 State Chihuahua Sonora Production 2015 (MT) 6% 3% 4% 79,934 10% 15,028 Coahuila Chihuahua Sonora Coahuila ■Durango 12,509 12% Nuevo León Durango 7,143 65% Others Nuevo León 3,354 Others 4,746 122,714 Source: SIAP-SAGARPA 7#8120,000 Pecan Hectares in Mexico 2000 - 2015 112,622 108,012 104,371 100,000 98,071 92,218 88,055 84,509 80,000 74,2127,5880,048 63,69665,68568,383 60,000 50,4781,82351,622 40,000 20,000 0 Year 2015 112,622 Has 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Sup. Sembrada (Has) Source: SIAP-SAGARPA 8#9140,000 120,000 100,000 80,000 60,000 40,000 20,000 MX's Production and Hectares 2000 - 2015 Year 2015 122,714 MT 112,622 Has 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Sup. Sembrada (Has) Producción (Ton) Source: SIAP-SAGARPA 9#10New Plantings in Mexico Hectares 7,000 5,829 6,000 6,300 5,853 5,000 4,461 4,611 Avg. Increase per Year 4,000 4,163 3,370 3,000 3,546 3,641 2,698 2,000 2,466 4,267 Has Estimated to be 5,000 7,000 Has 1,000 0 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Source: SIAP-SAGARPA 10#11International Trade Mexico-USA Metric Tons 120,000 100,000 91,231 87,662 80,000 79,750 70,474 67,456 102,118 95,384 MT = 78% of Total Production 60,000 Imports Exports 40,000 21,696 22,045 20,870 24,506 23,983 26,187 29,087 | MT 20,000 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Source: SIAVI 11#12Metric Tons Exports from Mexico to USA 120,000 100,000 Total 2015 95, 384 MT 80,000 60,000 40,000 20,000 Shelled 78% of Mexico's Production In-Shell 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 ISIN CASCARA 46,646 71,777 42,868 45,147 56,213 69,567 60,480 CON CASCARA 41,016 19,454 24,587 25,327 23,537 32,551 34,904 Source: SIAVI and COMENUEZ 12#13Mexican Exports to China Metric Tons 6,932 7,000 6,000 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000 620 326 0 5,579 MT = 4.54% of Total Production 4,092 3,316 3,337 3,141 الـ 1,391 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 13#14Mexico and China ► Sonora State: currently the biggest exporter to China (in-shell nuts). Smaller trade trade operations from other Mexican states. Chihuahua could be in the future a major player in exporting to China. 2016 China in Mexico: . • MISIÓN COMERCIAL CHINA DE COMPRADORES DE NULZ CANERA MISIÓN MERCIAL 28 Buyers representing 14 Companies Import Tax lowered: 25 to 10% http://www.sagarpa.gob.mx/Delegaciones/distritofederal/boletines/Paginas/JAC0236-29.aspx 14#15Tons Pecan Apparent Consumption in Mexico 70,000 60,000 50,000 40,000 64,637 30,000 56,417 49,775 49,480 45,773 20,000 10,000 0 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Apparent Consumption Production plus Imports minus Exports Avg. Apparent Consumption 53, 216 MT Source: SIAVI 15#16Year 2014 26,132 MT Per Capita Consumption in Mexico (2014) MÉXICO Nueces: Consumo per cápita (gramos/hab.) 208.41 gr 75.12 23.25 14.79 11.29 10.07 0.03 Almonds Macadamia Pine nut Pistachio Hazelnuts Chestnuts Pecan Source: COMENUEZ 16#17Pecan Industry in Chihuahua Chihuahua Palomas Ascensión Janos Sabinal Nuevo Casas Grandes Ricardo Flores Magón Buenaventura Ciudad Juárez El Porvenir Lucero Rio Grande Villa Ahumada El Sueco 10 Ojo de Laguna Rio Bravo del Norte Barrancos de Guadalupe Ojinaga Coyame Golfo de California Alcama R. Conchos Manuel Madera Matachic Bachiniva R. Yaqui Chihuahua A. Lopez Mateos Sonora Cuauhtémoc Basaseachic R. Mayo Benavides Meoqui La Perla Cd. Delicias Santa Elena San Juanito Naica La Cruz Creel 24 Divisadero Barrancas. R. Conchos Valle de Urique. Batopilas Guachochi Cd. Camargo Zaragoza Coahuila Jiménez Hidalgo del Parral 100 mi 100 km R. Fuerte Guadalupe y Calvo Vergel Durango Explorando MÉXICO Sinaloa Redondeados 17#18Metric Tons Pecan Production in Chihuahua 80,000 CHIHUAHUA 70,000 COAHUILA 60,000 SONORA 50,000 40,000 30,000 20,000 10,000 kkk 79,934 MT 66,302 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Source: SIAP-SAGARPA 18#19Metric Tons 18,000 16,025 16,000 14,000 12,000 10,453 10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 2,000 Pecan-producing Regions Year 2014 4,603 4,338 4,188 3,898 3,718 3,341 3,117 2,828 2,865 Jiménez Allende Aldama Camargo Rosales Saucillo Meoqui Ahumada 2,397 2,189 Chihuahua Delicias Galeana La Cruz López Chihuahua Golfo de California Palomas Ciudad Juárez 2 El Porvenir R Sabinal Rio Grande ero Rio Bravo del Norte Ascensión Jang Nuevo Cass Grande Ricardo Flores Magón Buenaventura Madera Villa humada Sueco Coyame 16 Aldara 30 Ojo de Laguna Bachiniva Matachic Barrancos de Guadalupe Ojinaga R. Corchos Chihuahua неоци Manuel Benavides La Perla Cd. Delias Santa Elena Cuauhtémoc San Juanito Noca La Cruz Creel R. Yaqui A. Lopez Mateos Sonora Basaseachic R.Mayo Divisadero Barrancas. Urique. 100 mi 100 km Explorando MÉXICO 24 R. Conchos Vade Batopilas Guachochi R. Fuerte Guadalupe y Calvo Sinaloa Cd. Camargo 45 Zaragoza Coahuila Jimenez Hidalgo el Parr B Vergel Durango Redondeados Source: COMENUEZ 19#20Metric Tons 160000 140000 120000 100000 80000 60000 40000 20000 Pecan Production Forecasting 0 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 CHIHUAHUA ■COAHUILA SONORA DURANGO NUEVO LEON OTROS Chihuahua could reach a production as high as 150,000 MT by 2025. Source: COMENUEZ 20#2170,000 Chih's Pecan Hectares 64,049 66,302 60,250 60,000 51,3893,0295,119 50,000 47,108,535 44,656 42,685 40,590 38,445 40,000 30,000 20,000 10,000 T 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 16,242 11,586 ⚫CHIHUAHUA COAHUILA SONORA Yr 2015 68, 823 Has AVG. Increase per Year 2,532 Has estimated 3,000 - 5,000 Has For 2016 estimated 70% production 30% development Source: SIAP-SAGARPA 21#22Dollars 6.00 5.00 Price-per-Point in Chihuahua (2001-2016) -Price-per-Point 5.19 4.95 5.03 · · Source: COMENUEZ and Pecan Growers Estimated Average Price 4.08 • Price Fluctuation 2016 - 2017: 3.80 4.00 3.59 3.38 3.35 3.15 3.10 3.04 3.00 2.75 2.84 ● 4.20 5.65 USD - Feb 17th's Price: $ 4.20, Pecans 54% Meat 2.20 2.05 2.00 1.43 1.00 0.00 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 Year 22#23Price per Kg in Chihuahua (2001 - 2016) Price (Pesos/Kg) 140.00 120.00 100.00 80.00 84.82 70.20 60.59 54.92 60.00 48.47 50.36 44.04 44.45 46.15 38.9140.00 40.00 30.01 25.30 17.15 20.00 82.00 123.14 0.00 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 23#2425 25 Exchange Rate (2001 - 2016) Exchange Rate (Pesos/ USD) 20 20 15 15 10 10 9.57 5 20.05 16.54 13.94 13.95 13.55 12.96 13.09 12.94 12.33 11.15 11.28 10.18 10.51 10.85 10.83 0 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 24#25Challenges and Successes 25#26Success 1 Mexican Pecan growers have developed good pecan management knowledge and skills through short courses, conferences, talks, publications, etc. FORO 2016 TENDENCIA del mercado "Prepárate para permanecer competitivo” de la NUEZ PECANERA Viernes 05 de agosto de 2016 de 9:00 a.m. a 1:00 p.m. Hotel Casa Grande Av. Tecnológico #4702, Las Granjas, en la Cd. de Chihuahua, Chih. COMENUEZ Comité Mexicano del Sistema Producto Nuez AFIRA FDEKOMSOS INSTITUCOS EN RELACION CON LAAGRICELTIRA PROGRAMA Presentación de Producción Actual y Proyección de la producción, nuevas plantaciones, búsqueda de nuevos mercados Programa de financiamiento al sector nogalero, FIRA Exigencias para entrar en los mercados Internacionales Importancia de la Certificación para el cumplimiento de regulaciones de los mercados internacionales o al e-mail: [email protected] CUPO LIMITADO Confirma tu asistencia al (614) 151-8782 26#27Success 2 ► Good growers' organizations. National Level Consejo Mexicano Productores de Nuez State Level Regional Level CONSEJO 4 PRODUCTORES CPNCh DE NUEZ D AGRICOLA LOCA UAHUA A.C CHIHUAHUA ASOCIACION PRODUCTORES NOGAL Y NUE DELICIAS COMENUEZ Comité Mexicano del Sistema Producto Nuez Regional Associations SPNuez CHIHUAHUA 27#28Success 3 Plenty of orchard management information available: magazines, Facebook, webpages, etc. MANEJO DEL BARRENADOR DEL RUEZNO EN CHIHUAHUA PACANA initap La Revista del Nogalero CONACYT Nogaleros Revista normative des para el tecta de Mu Aba 10 Fici 33 May Q ← → C https://www.facebook.com/Nuez-Mexicana-192802051134135/ Nuez Mexicana Alberto Inicio Buscar amigos Página Mensaes Notificaciones Estadisticas Herramientas de publicación Configuración Ayuda COMENUEZ Nuez Mexicana Más información Crea nombre de cario da la página Inicio Información Te gusta Enviar mensaje Fotos Me gusta Estado Foto/video Oferta, Evento+ Compañia de comida y bebidas Videos Publicaciones Escribe algo QBusca publicaciones es esta página Administrar pestañas Nuiz Mexicana SAGARPA PRIMERA EDICION SEPTIEMBRE 2015 Centro de Investigación Regional Norte Centro Campo Experimental Delicias Cd. Delicias, Chihuahua; Octubre 2013 Folleto técnice No. 42 Fertilización en Nogales Rentabilidad de la nuez pecanera Utilización de Nitrógeno Dormacia +Agregar tienda Has momento Encuentra cotas que podrás disfrutar con #NuecesMexicanas Fáciles y rápidas Promocionar Sigue el enlace 3Me gusta +3 esta seman Emunde VL 1 personas scarzadas con tus pubicaciones esta semana Ver noticies de pigires Pikanes de pégas que deste que te gestane nombre de tu pigna Invitar a amigos a que indiquen que les gusta 1 pegira f http://www.facebook.com/Nues Mexicans 191862051134135 Recetas Recetas INFORMACIÓN > Agregar direcion Guardar Oudad estado, código postal Agregar número de teléfono Agregar horario orega in eo vel Promocionar sitio web CONSEJOS PARA PÁGINAS Ayuda a las personas a actuar Agregs un botón de lameda in acción en 28#29Challenge 1 ► Improving Pecan Growers-Government team work. CMDRS Μέχικο GOBIERNO FEDERAL SAGARPA ASERCA PROMÉXICO FIRA SE FIRCO FIDEICOMISO DE RIESGO COMPARTIDO CNS Consejo Nacional Agropecuario COMENUEZ Comica Mexicano del Sistema Producto Nue COMITÉS ESTATALES ASOCIACIONES LOCALES DE PRODUCTORES Λ 29 29#30Challenge 2 ►Need of accurate, reliable data of pecan industry. data facts information captured data and knowledge decisions informed actions The Infogineering Model knowledge our map of the world 30#31Challenge 3 New Markets: Asia and Europe. 31#32Challenge 3 ► Participating in Food & Trade Fairs. SIAL INSPIRE FOOD BUSINESS anuga TASTE THE FUTURE COLOGNE 10.-14.10.2015 The world's largest food innovation exhibition Paris 16-20 OCTOBER 2016 32#33Challenge 4 Consolidation of domestic market. MÉXICO ALIMENTARIA 2016 FOOD SHOW Current pecan prices represent the main factor to increasing consumption. 33#34U.S. International Trade in goods and services MEXICO "In 2015, U.S. exports of goods and services to Mexico were $267.3 billion, down 1.4% from 2014, and imports from Mexico were $325.3 billion, up 0.7% from 2014. As a result, the trade deficit with Mexico increased to $57.9 billion." "In 2015, exports to Mexico accounted for 11.8% of total U.S. exports, and imports from Mexico accounted for 11.8% of total U.S. imports. Exports were led by capital goods. (excluding automotive), which accounted for 31.2% of U.S. exports to Mexico, and imports were led by automotive vehicles, parts, and engines, which accounted for 32.7% of U.S. imports from Mexico." "Who owns the automotive companies?" ☑bea Bureau of Economic Analysis U.S. DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE#35U.S. International Trade in goods and services Exports, Imports, and Balance [Millions of dollars] MEXICO Balance Exports Imports 350,000 300,000 -10,000- 250,000 -20,000 200,000 -30,000 150,000 -40,000 100,000 -50,000 50,000 -60,000- -70,000 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Exports Imports 2006 2007 157,800 161,145 177,842 216,992 230,456 236,410 2008 2009 2010 2011 152,154 188,337 225,058 2012 244,584 2013 2014 2015 256,511 271,049 267,337 Balance 193,659 246,769 282,027 298,599 303,988 322,956 325,276 -59,193 -69,311 -58,568 -41,505 -58,432 -56,968 -54,015 -47,477 -51,907 -57,939 "Consumer Products and Autos Drive the U.S. Trade Deficit❞ https://www.bea.gov/international/factsheet/factsheet.cfm?Area=213 ☑bea Bureau of Economic Analysis U.S. DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE#36U.S. International Trade in goods and services Direct Investment of Multinational Enterprises in Mexico In 2015, the U.S. direct investment position in Mexico (outward) was $92.8 billion, an increase of 3.5% from 2014. The direct investment position from Mexico in the United States (inward) was $16.6 billion, an increase of 0.2% from 2014. 120,000 100,000 80,000 60,000 40,000- 20,000 Millions of dollars Outward Inward 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Outward 82.965 91,046 87,443 84.047 85.751 85,599 104.388 86.433 89.650 92,812 Inward 5,310 8,478 8.420 11.111 10.970 12.500 12,751 15.869 16.567 16.597 https://www.bea.gov/international/factsheet/factsheet.cfm?Area-213 ☑bea Bureau of Economic Analysis U.S. DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE#37U.S. International Trade in goods and services Activities of Multinational Enterprises in Mexico In 2014, Mexico-based majority-owned affiliates of U.S. MNES employed 1.29 million people and sales were $253.4 billion. U.S.-based majority-owned affiliates of Mexican MNES employed 77.8 thousand people in 2014, an increase of 3.7% from the previous year; sales were $32.8 billion, up 7.3%. Sales Thousands of employees Employment 1,400 1,200 300,000 1,000- Mexican minimum wage 2017: 250,000 200,000 800 600- 400 $ 80 pesos per day or $ 4 dollars 150,000 100,000 50,000 200 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 LLLLLL 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 U.S. MNES: Majority-Owned Affiliates in Mexico Mexican MNES: Majority-Owned Affiliates in the United States https://www.bea.gov/international/factsheet/factsheet.cfm?Area=213 ☑bea Bureau of Economic Analysis U.S. DEPARTMENT OF COMMERCE#38U.S. Trade in goods with... (Millions of U.S. dollars) Exports Imports Balance China Deficit: China Year Japan 2016 Mexico 230,959.1 115,775.1 462,813.0 - 347,037.9 63,264.3 132,201.8 294,151.0 - 68,937.6 5.49 more times than Mexico - 63,191.9 https://www.census.gov/foreign-trade/balance/index.html Source: United States™ Census Bureau 38#39Challenge 5 USA New Administration Policies: NAFTA? UK world sport football opinion culture business lifestyle fashion environment tech travel home > world > US Trump administration theguardian =browse all sections f This article is 1 month old americas asia australia africa middle east cities development europe All Nafta measures 'put on the table' under Trump, says commerce nominee At confirmation hearing for commerce secretary job, Wilbur Ross says next administration will address trade deal 'very, very early' Wilbur Ross confirmation hearing: the key points หล 25 Sam Thielman @samthielman Wednesday 18 January 2017 23.01 GMT 39#40Challenge 5 ► USA New Administration Policies: NAFTA? BBC NEWS Sign in News Sport Weather Sho = EL PAÍS Home Video World UK Business Tech Science Magazi US & Canada Mundo Global CRÓNICAS INTERNACIONALES Autoplay: On fG+ de rectangule BLOGS 00:58/00:58 Avocado anxiety over Trump's border tax 3 hours ago The White House has proposed a 20% "border tax" on Mexico as one of the ways to recoup the costs of building a US-Mexico border Primer efecto Trump en Argentina: paralizada la exportación de limones El país austral es el primer productor mundial y había logrado hace un mes desbloquear los permisos f CARLOS E. CUÉ 141 Buenos Aires - 24 ENE 2017 - 14:01 CST 40#41Challenge 5 ► USA New Administration Policies: NAFTA? Frena EU exportaciones de tomate; se quedan aquí Cinthya Ávila/ El Diario | Viernes 03 Febrero 2017 | 00:01:00 hrs f631 631 Compartir CNN Money International + Markets Economy Companies Tech Autos India Video stoc Trumponomics Mexico ready to retaliate by hurting. American corn farmers by Patrick Gillespie @CNNMoney February 13, 2017: 12:06 PM ET f Recommend 2.2K 41#42WPGA Conference 2017 The Pecan Industry in Chihuahua, Mexico: Challenges and Successes...And maybe fears? Thank you! LOGRAR PARA DAR AUTONOMA ICO STATE M 1888 DE UNIV Dr. Julio López-Díaz Universidad Autónoma de Chihuahua [email protected] Dr. Esteban Herrera NMSU Professor Emeritus