#1Sri Lanka: Macroeconomic Developments in Charts Central Bank of Sri Lanka Economic Research Department First Quarter 2022#2Real Sector and Inflation Real GDP Growth (Annual/Quarterly) Sectoral GDP Growth Per Capita GDP Index of Industrial Production (IIP) Unemployment Poverty CCPI based Inflation NCPI based Inflation Producer's Price Index (PPI) External Sector Earnings from Merchandise Exports Expenditure from Merchandise Imports Trade Balance Tourism: Arrivals and Earnings Tourism: Monthly Arrivals Workers' Remittances Current Account Balance Foreign Direct Investment Flows Balance of Payment Gross Official Reserves Exchange Rate Movements Index Fiscal Sector Government Revenue Government Expenditure Public Investment Budget Deficit Central Government Debt Monetary Sector Reserve Money Growth and Money Multiplier Broad Money Growth Credit to the Private Sector Net Credit to Government Credit to Public Corporations Net Foreign Assets Policy Interest Rates and Overnight Money Market Rates Treasury Bill Yields and the Yield Curve Market Interest Rates Financial Sector Banking Sector Indicators (i) Banking Sector Indicators (ii) Banking Density Non-Bank Financial Sector Indicators (i) Central Bank of Sri Lanka Economic Research Department Non-Bank Financial Sector Indicators (ii) Stock Market Performance#3Real Sector and Inflation Central Bank of Sri Lanka Economic Research Department#4-4 -2 2011 Growth Rate (%) N 0 2012 2013 Central Bank of Sri Lanka Economic Research Department 9 2014 10 10 8 8.7 8.6 2015 4.1 2016 2017 6.4 Real GDP Growth Annual Real GDP Growth Quarterly Real GDP Growth 5.1 4.2 2018 2019 33 2020 W -3.5 6.5 2021 -18 3.3 -13 Growth Rate (%) ώ -8 17 22 123 12 8.0 7.3 6.7 6.2 6.0 N 4.4 4.3 3.7 5.2 4.4 4.0 2.0 2.9 1.2 1.5 2016-Q1 2016-Q2 2016-Q3 2016-Q4 2017-Q1 2017-Q2 2017-Q3 2017-Q4 2018-Q1 2018-Q2 2018-Q3 2018-Q4 -3.5 -0.1 -0.30.9 -0.7 -1.8 Source: Department of Census and Statistics Note: Data are based on the base year 2015 GDP estimates of the Department of Census and Statistics. Data are based on latest GDP estimates made available on 28 June 2022 by the Department of Census and Statistics. 2019-Q1 2019-Q2 2019-Q3 2019-Q4 2020-Q1 -14.8 2020-Q2 2020-Q3 2020-Q4 2021-Q1 2021-Q2 2021-Q3 2021-Q4 2022-Q1 -5.8 -1.6 16.3#515 Sectoral GDP Growth Agriculture 30 Industry 11.2 10 9.2 6.4 6.3 5.2 5.2 2.9 3.9 3.41 1.2 0.3 -5 4.8 -2.8 -6.2 -4.4 -4.0 -3.6 -5.5 -6.6 -6.8 -10 Q1 Q2 2016 2017 2018 2019 Growth Rate (%) 21.6 20 16.4 13.6 10.1 13.5 13.3 8.4 10 8.5 6.0 7.6 5.5 5.5 2.9 2.0 -8.1 -7.6 Q3 Q4 2020 2021 2022 -4.2 -10 -4-7 -6.6 -7.3 -1.10.Z2.0 1.0 1.4 1.1 0.4 -3.1 -18.1 -20 -18.7 -30 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 ■2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 Services 10 8.3 5 4.8 4.84.8 4.0 5.3 4.5 83.5 2.85 3.7 4.3 3.0 3.4 3.0 0.7 1.3 0.5 о S -10 -15 Q1 -13.1 Q2 Q3 -1.7 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 5.0 4.23.6 4.3 2.5 1.0 Q4 2022 Source: Department of Census and Statistics Central Bank of Sri Lanka Note: Data are based on the base year 2015 GDP estimates of the Department of Census and Statistics. Data are based on latest GDP estimates made available on 28 June 2022 by the Department of Census and Statistics. Economic Research Department#65,000 Per Capita GDP 4,500 4,401 4,359 4,058 4,149 4,000 T 3,972 4,082 4,014 3,739 3,895 3,449 3,500 3,243 3,000 2,836 2,500 2,000 1,500 1,000 500 0 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 (Prov.) Sources: Department of Census and Statistics Central Bank of Sri Lanka Note: Data are based on the base year 2015 GDP estimates on latest GDP estimates made available on 28 June 2022 by the Department of Census and Statistics and updated with latest population data. Average annual exchange rates published by the CBSL used for the calculations. Central Bank of Sri Lanka Economic Research Department#70 20 Jan-19 20 % 90 60 40 40 Feb-19 Mar-19 80 Apr-19 120 108.8 104.2 100 116.5 Index of Industrial Production (IIP)* 96.9 106.1 107.5108.6 112.2 107.2 112.1 108.7108.5108.1 May-19 Jun-19 Jul-19 Aug-19 Sep-19 Oct-19 Nov-19 Dec-19 Jan-20 Feb-20 Mar-20 Central Bank of Sri Lanka Economic Research Department Apr-20 May-20 Jun-20 50.0 104.2 84.1 79.2 92.5 111.3 110.3 108.8107.8106.9 108.1 102.3 119.6 99.2 97.4 94.1 93.2 Jul-20 Aug-20 Sep-20 Oct-20 Nov-20 Dec-20 Jan-21 Feb-21 Mar-21 Apr-21 May-21 Jun-21 Jul-21 Aug-21 Sep-21 109.9 109.5 106.8107.4 105.7 100.2 Oct-21 Nov-21 Dec-21 Jan-22 Feb-22 Mar-22 Source: Department of Census and Statistics *Based on the Index of Industrial Production (IIP, 2015=100) 100.5101.4 107.3#810 9 % 7.9 8 7.6 7 9 5 4 3 T 2 1 Unemployment 8.8 8.4 8.3 7.7 6.5 6 5.8 5.4 4.9 4.7 4.8 4.4 4.2 4.3 4.4 4.4 4.2 4 ம் 5.5 55 5.1 0 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 Source: Department of Census and Statistics Central Bank of Sri Lanka Economic Research Department#950 50 46.8 Poverty Poverty Headcount Ratio 45 40 40 35 28.8 30 do 25 20 15 10 5 1995/1996 34.1 28.4 22.5 16 14.3 2002 2006/2007 2009/2010 2012/2013 2016 2019 Note: Based on official poverty line using HIES 2012/13 data Central Bank of Sri Lanka Economic Research Department Source: Department of Census and Statistics#1019 18 17 16 COLOR+32=0000105+32-0 11 % 10 9 Mar-16 Jun-16 Sep-16 Dec-16 Mar-17 Jun-17 Sep-17 Dec-17 Mar-18 Jun-18 Sep-18 Dec-18 Mar-19 Jun-19 Sep-19 Dec-19 Mar-20 Jun-20 Sep-20 Dec-20 Mar-21 Jun-21 Sep-21 Dec-21 Mar-22 Mar-16 4 + 3 2- 0 Jun-16 CCPI based Headline Inflation % 9.1 S 76 Headline (Y-o-Y) Central Bank of Sri Lanka Economic Research Department Headline (Annual Avg.) Core (Y-o-Y) Core (Annual Avg.) Source: Department of Census and Statistics *Based on the Colombo Consumer Price Index (CCPI, 2013-100) **Core Inflation is calculated by excluding volatile food, energy and transport categories from the CCPI Sep-16 Dec-16 Mar-17 Mal-1/ Jun-17 Sep-17 DEC-17 Mar-18 Mai-10 Jun-18 Sep-18 Dec-18- Mar-19 Mal-lg Jun-19 Sep-19 Dec-19 Mar-20 Jun-20 Sep-20 oz-das Dec-20 Mar-21 CCPI based Inflation* 15 18.7 14 11 D132 FO 10 86 Jun-21 Sep-21 Dec-21 Mar-22 6.5 CCPI based Core Inflation** 13.0#112 26 120 ∞ 24 22 20 18 16 14 2012 8 6 4 Mar-16 Jun-16 Sep-16 Dec-16 Mar-19 Jun-19 Sep-19 Dec-19 Mar-20 Jun-20 Sep-20 NCPI based Headline Inflation Dec-20 Mar-21 Jun-21 Sep-21 Dec-21 Mar-22 0 NCPI based Inflation* 10.6 4 2 Mar-16 Jun-16 Sep-16 20 21.5 18 16 16 - % - 12 10 8 6 Dec-16 Mar-17 Jun-17 Jun-17 Sep-17 14 NCPI based Core Inflation** Headline (Y-o-Y) Central Bank of Sri Lanka Economic Research Department Headline (Annual Avg.) Core (Y-o-Y) Core (Annual Avg.) Source: Department of Census and Statistics *Based on the National Consumer Price Index (2013-100) **Core Inflation is calculated by excluding volatile food, energy and transport categories from the NCPI Dec-17 Mar-18 Jun-18 Sep-18 Dec-18 Mar-19 Jun-19 Sep-19 Dec-19 Marzo Mar-20 Jun-20 Sep-20 Dec-20 Mar-21 Jun-21 Sep-21 Dec-21 Mar-22 8.2 17.3#1250 50 70 March 90 90 May 110 130 150 170 190 July September November January March All Items Central Bank of Sri Lanka Economic Research Department May July September 2017 -Agriculture Producer's Price Index (PPI)* November January March May July September November January March May 2018 Manufacturing 2019 July September November January March May 2020 July September November January March May July September November January March 2021 2022 Electricity, gas, steam and air conditioning supply Source: Department of Census and Statistics *Based on the Producer's Price Index (PPI,2018 Q4=100) 102.6 172.5 166.0 164.1#13Central Bank of Sri Lanka Economic Research Department External Sector#140 US$ bn 2 4 19 8 10 12 14 5.5 4.84.7 2000 2001 2002 Earnings from Merchandise Exports Merchandise Exports - Annual Merchandise Exports - Monthly 12.5 11.911.9 11.1 11.4 10.6 10.5 10.4 9.8 10.3 10.0 8.6 8.1 7.6 6.9 7.1 6.3 5.8 5.1 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 Q1 Central Bank of Sri Lanka Economic Research Department 3.2 32 US$ mn 1,400 1,200 1,000 800 600 400 200 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 2019 2020 2021 2022 Sources: Central Bank of Sri Lanka and Sri Lanka Customs#150 US$ bn 15 20 25 Expenditure on Merchandise Merchandise Imports - Annual Imports Merchandise Imports - Monthly 14.1 13.5 11.3 10.3 10.2 8.9 8.0 10 7.3 6.06.16.7 5 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 Central Bank of Sri Lanka Economic Research Department 2,400 22.2 21.0 20.6 19.2 18.0 20.3 19.48 19.9 18.919.2 2,200 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 Q1 2022 16.1 2,000 55 5.7 US$ mn 1,800 1,600 1,400 1,200 1,000 800 T Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 2019 2020 2021 2022 Sources: Central Bank of Sri Lanka and Sri Lanka Customs#16Central Bank of Sri Lanka Economic Research Department -12 2000 2001 -10 2002 2003 -8 2004 US$ bn 9 2005 2006 2007 -4 2008 2009 -2 -1.8 2010 2011 0 -1.2 -1.4 -1.5 -2.2 -2.5 2012 -9.7 2013 2014 -3.1 -3.4 -3.7 -6.0 -9.4 2015 2016 -4.8 -7.6 Trade Balance -8.3 -8.4 -8.9 -9.6 2017 2018 2019 -10.3 2020 2021 Source: Central Bank of Sri Lanka Q1 2022 -8.0 -8.1 -6.0 -2.4#17US$ mn 5,000 4,500 4,000 3,500 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1,000 500 252 0 213 363 2000 2001 2002 2003 454 429 408 410385 342, 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 Earnings from tourism Arrivals and Earnings 1,715 2,431 Tourism Monthly Arrivals 2,500,000 280,000 4,381 240,000 3,925 2,000,000 3,607 3,518 200,000 2,981 1,500,000 1,000,000 Number Number 160,000 80,000 1,039 830 500,000 682 576 513 40,000 350 507 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022-Q1 0 Tourist arrivals (Right Axis) Sources: Central Bank of Sri Lanka and Sri Lanka Tourist Development Authority (SLTDA) Central Bank of Sri Lanka Economic Research Department 120,000 Mar Apr May 2019 2020 2021 Aug 2022 Nov Dec Source: SLTDA#18US$ mn 8000 7000 6000 5000 4000 Workers' Remittances 3,330 3000 2,918 2,502 2,161 1,968 2000 1,160 1,155 1,287 1,414 1,305 1000 ° Central Bank of Sri Lanka Economic Research Department 2011 4,116 5,145 7,242 7,164 7,104 7,018 6,980 7,015 6,717 6,407 5,985 2021 2022-Q1 Source: Central Bank of Sri Lanka 5,491 783#19Central Bank of Sri Lanka Economic Research Department 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 US$ bn Current Account Balance 0.0 -0.5 -1.0 -1.5 -1.1 -2.0 -2.5 -3.0 -3.5 -4.0 -4.5 -5.0 -0.2 -0.2 -0.1 -0.6 -0.7 -1.5 -1.4 -0.2 -1.1 -2.0 -1.9 -1.7 -1.8 -1.2 ག་པ། -3.9 -4.6 -4.0 -2.5 -2.3 -2.8 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 Source: Central Bank of Sri Lanka 2014 2015 2016 -1.3#20US$ mn Foreign Direct Investment Inflows 2,500 2,000 1,500 1,000 500 272 229 223 197 175 82 Central Bank of Sri Lanka Economic Research Department 1,066 889 734 604 601 516 1,382 1,437 1,635 1,910 2,139 1,160 1,189 1,078 784 670 2021 Sources: Central Bank of Sri Lanka, Board of Investment and Colombo Stock Exchange 2022-Q1 228#21-5.0 -4.0 2000 Central Bank of Sri Lanka Economic Research Department -3.0 2001 US$ bn -2.0 2002 -0.5 -1.0 2003 2.0 3.0 4.0 1.0 0.5 0.5 0.5 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.0 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 -0.2 2009 2010 -1.4 2011 2012 2013 Balance of Payments 0.9 Overall Balance 2.7 0.2 -1.1 -1.5 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 44 1.4 1.0 2019 -0.5 2020 2021 -1.1 2.1 0.4 -2.3 -2.3 -4.0 2022-Q1 Source: Central Bank of Sri Lanka#2210 10 9 8 7 US$ bn 160 5 4 3 2 1 о Gross Official Reserves* Dec-14 8 7 16 5 + Months 3 2 1 0 Mar-15 Jun-15 Sep-15 Dec-15 Mar-16 Jun-16 Sep-16 111111111 / / / / / / / \ ⠀ ⠀ ⠀ Gross Official Reserves Months of Imports (Right Axis) Central Bank of Sri Lanka Economic Research Department Source: Central Bank of Sri Lanka * Proceeds from the People's Bank of China (PBOC) swap equivalent to around US dollars 1.5 billion, which is subject to conditionalities on usability, are included in Gross Official Reserves since end 2021#23Rs. 2.60 2.40 2.20 2.00 1.80 1.60 1.40 1.00 1.20 亚 Dec-16 Mar-17 Jun-17 Sep-17 Dec-17 Central Bank of Sri Lanka Economic Research Department Mar-18 Jun-18 Sep-18 Dec-18 Mar-19 Jun-19 Sep-19 Dec-19 Mar-20 Jun-20 Sep-20 Dec-20 Mar-21 Jun-21 Sep-21 Dec-21 TTT Mar-22 1.90 Dec-16 Mar-17 Jun-17 Sep-17 Dec-17 Mar-18 Jun-18 Sep-18 Dec-18 Mar-19 Jun-19 Sep-19 Dec-19 Mar-20 Japanese Yen Jun-20 Sep-20 Dec-20 Mar-21 Jun-21 Sep-21 Dec-21 Mar-22 Rs. 4.40 3.90 3.40 2.90 2.40 Dec-16 Mar-17 Jun-17 Sep-17 Dec-17 Mar-18 Jun-18 Sep-18 Dec-18 Mar-19 Jun-19 Sep-19 Dec-19 Mar-20 Jun-20 Sep-20 Dec-20 Mar-21 Jun-21 Sep-21 Dec-21 Mar-22 06 Dec-16 Mar-17 Jun-17 Sep-17 Dec-17 Mar-18 Jun-18 Indian Rupee Sep-18 Dec-18 Mar-19 Jun-19 Sep-19 Dec-19 Exchange Rate Movements US Dollar Sterling Pound Euro Mar-20 Jun-20 Sep-20 Dec-20 Mar-21 Jun-21- Sep-21 Dec-21 Mar-22 Dec-16 Mar-17 Jun-17 Sep-17 Dec-17 Mar-18 Jun-18 Sep-18 Dec-18 Mar-19 Jun-19 Sep-19 Dec-19 Mar-20 Jun-20 Sep-20 Dec-20 Mar-21 Jun-21 Sep-21 Dec-21 Mar-22 Rs. Australian Dollar 240 225 210 195 180 165 150 135 120 105 Dec-16 Mar-17 Jun-17 Sep-17 Dec-17 Mar-18 Jun-18 Sep-18 Dec-18 Mar-19 Jun-19 Sep-19 Dec-19 Mar-20 Jun-20 Sep-20 Source: Central Bank of Sri Lanka Dec-20 Mar-21 Jun-21 Sep-21 Dec-21 Mar-22 385 Rs. 335#24Central Bank of Sri Lanka Economic Research Department Fiscal Sector#252 % of GDP 4 6 8 10 12 14 Government Revenue 18 16.8 16.6 16.6 16.3 15.8 16 15.5 15.2 14.9 14.9 14.5 2011 13.1 12.6 11.9 2015 11.6 11.2 13.2 12.8 12.6 12.6 11.9 2019 (a) 2020 Source: Ministry of Finance Note: Information from 2010 are based on rebased (2015 prices) estimates of GDP published by the Department of Census and Statistics on 28 June 2022. (a) According to the Ministry of Finance, the fiscal sector statistics of 2019 have been restated as announced in the Budget Speech for 2020 (b) Provisional Central Bank of Sri Lanka Economic Research Department 2021 8.7 8.3 2022 Q1 (b) 1.9 19#260 2000 5 2001 2002 % of GDP 2003 10 10 2004 2005 2006 15 2007 25 20 20 20.2 21.6 20.9 18.6 18.6 18.4 18.1 17.4 Government Expenditure Recurrent Expenditure Capital and Net Lending 8 7 6.5 18.2 6.1 6.7 5.9 16.9 16.1 6 5.8 5.6 5.7 5.5 14.7 15.2 15.5 5.2 14.1 13.7 13.7 13.4 13.6 5 4.64.6 4.74.7 12.612.1 12.3 4.2 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2020 2021 2019 (a) 2022 Q1 (b) % of GDP 2 3.5 1 O 3 4 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 Source: Ministry of Finance Note: Information from 2010 are based on rebased (2015 prices) estimates of GDP published by the Department of Census and Statistics on 28 June 2022. (a) According to the Ministry of Finance, the fiscal sector statistics of 2019 have been restated as announced in the Budget Speech for 2020 (b) Provisional Central Bank of Sri Lanka Economic Research Department 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 (a) 2020 4.4 5.7 5.1 4.54.5 4.4 3.9 3.1 2021 2022 Q1 (b) 0.5#27% of GDP 0 1 2 3 5 8 7 6.4 5.9 9 5.0 4.6 4.8 Public Investment 6.8 6.3 6.4 6.0 6.0 5.6 5.4 5.2 4.9 4.8 4.5 4. 4.6 4.6 4.1 2019 (a) 4.0 2020 2021 5.1 4.5 95 0.5 2022 Q1 (b) Source: Ministry of Finance Note: Information from 2010 are based on rebased (2015 prices) estimates of GDP published by the Department of Census and Statistics on 28 June 2022. (a) According to the Ministry of Finance, the fiscal sector statistics of 2019 have been restated as announced in the Budget Speech for 2020 (b) Provisional Central Bank of Sri Lanka Economic Research Department#282 % of GDP 2000 4 6 2001 8 12 14 10 9.5 10.4 2002 Budget Deficit 9.9 8.5 7.5 7.3 7.2 7.0 7.0 6.9 7.0 6.7 6.0 5.4 5.5 5.2 5.0 5554 5.1 2019 (a) 5.0 2020 9.0 Source: Ministry of Finance Note: Information from 2010 are based on rebased (2015 prices) estimates of GDP published by the Department of Census and Statistics on 28 June 2022. (a) According to the Ministry of Finance, the fiscal sector statistics of 2019 have been restated as announced in the Budget Speech for 2020 (b) Provisional Central Bank of Sri Lanka Economic Research Department 2021 2022 Q1 (b) 11.6 10.5 2.1#29Central Bank of Sri Lanka Economic Research Department 0 2000 20 2001 % of GDP 40 40 60 80 120 105.6 103.3 102.5 102.5 96.9 100 90.8 88.0 85.1 81.5 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 Central Government Debt 86.2 69.3 68.6 67.7 69.3 69.5 74.3 74.0 72.2 Source: Ministry of Finance Central Bank of Sri Lanka Note: Information from 2010 are based on rebased (2015 prices) estimates of GDP published by the Department of Census and Statistics on 28 June 2022. (a) Provisional 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 (Q1)(a) 99.5 95.4 81.9 78.4 93.2#30Central Bank of Sri Lanka Economic Research Department Monetary Sector#31-20 -10 50 Reserve Money Growth and Money Multiplier Reserve Money Growth (Y-O-Y) Money Multiplier 40 9 40 35.4 8 30 30 27.8 27.1 23.8 34.8 7 22.6 6 020 17.8 15.5 17.3 21.1 13.2 5 11.2 10 10 12.7 10.5 4 10.2 9.8 4.3 2.7 4.0 3 0 0.9 2 -3.7 Mar-16 Jun-16 Sep-16 Dec-16 Mar-17 Jun-17 Sep-17 Dec-17 Mar-18 Central Bank of Sri Lanka Economic Research Department Jun-18 -12.7 Sep-18 Dec-18 Mar-19 Jun-19 Sep-19 Dec-19 Mar-20 Jun-20 Sep-20 Dec-20 Mar-21 Jun-21 Sep-21 Dec-21 Mar-22 1 2000 2001 10 45.4 Source: Central Bank of Sri Lanka Note: The sharp depreciation of the Sri Lanka rupee in March 2022 remains the key reason for the augmentation of monetary and credit aggregates in rupee terms in March 2022. 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 M1 2009 ■2010 M2 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 M2b 2019 2020 2021 2022 Q1#3225 23 21 19 17 17.3 16.5 15 % 20 13 5 9 7 11 11 Mar-16 Jun-16 18.4 Sep-16 Dec-16 Mar-17 Jun-17 Central Bank of Sri Lanka Economic Research Department Sep-17 Broad Money Growth Broad Money (M2b) Growth (Y-O-Y) 21.4 21.3 20.3 16.8 16.7 14.9 13.1 13.0 11.4 8.7 7.4 8.4 13.2 14.0 Dec-17 Mar-18 Jun-18 Sep-18 Dec-18 Mar-19 Jun-19 Sep-19 Dec-19 Mar-20 Jun-20 Sep-20 23.4 21.5 21.5 19.2 17.7 18.2 Dec-20 Mar-21 13.2 Source: Central Bank of Sri Lanka Note: The sharp depreciation of the Sri Lanka rupee in March 2022 remains the key reason for the augmentation of monetary and credit aggregates in rupee terms in March 2022. Jun-21 Sep-21 Dec-21 Mar-22#33Rs. bn 8,000 7,500 7,000 6,500 6,000 5,500 5,000 4,500 4,000 3,500 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1,000 500 о Mar-12 Central Bank of Sri Lanka Economic Research Department Mar-13 Mar-14 Mar-15 Credit to the Private Sector Mar-16 Outstanding Credit Volume Mar-17 Mar-18 Mar-19 Private Sector Credit Growth (RHA) Source: Central Bank of Sri Lanka Note: The sharp depreciation of the Sri Lanka rupee in March 2022 remains the key reason for the augmentation of monetary and credit aggregates in rupee terms in March 2022. Mar-20 Mar-21 Mar-22 -10 -5 о 35 - 30 25 20 17.9 15 20 5 10 40 40#34Central Bank of Sri Lanka Economic Research Department 7,000 6,500 6,000 5,500 5,000 4,500 4,000 6J 3,500 ✓ 3,000 2,500 2,000 1,500 1,000 500 Mar-12 Jan-13 Nov-13 Sep-14 Central Bank Jul-15 May-16 Mar-17 Jan-18 Net Credit to the Government Commercial Banks Claims on Government (net) Note: The sharp depreciation of the Sri Lanka rupee in March 2022 remains the key reason for the augmentation of monetary and credit aggregates in rupee terms in March 2022. Nov-18 Sep-19 Jul-20 May-21 Source: Central Bank of Sri Lanka Mar-22#35Central Bank of Sri Lanka Economic Research Department Rs. bn 700 600 500 400 300 200 100 0 Mar-12 Sep-12 Mar-13 Sep-13 Mar-14 Sep-14 Mar-15 Sep-15 Mar-16 Sep-16 Mar-17 Sep-17 800 1,400 1,300 1,200 1,100 1,000 900 Source: Central Bank of Sri Lanka Note: The sharp depreciation of the Sri Lanka rupee in March 2022 remains the key reason for the augmentation of monetary and credit aggregates in rupee terms in March 2022. Mar-18 Sep-18 Mar-19 Sep-19 Mar-20 Sep-20 Mar-21 Sep-21 Mar-22 1,600 1,500 Credit to Public Corporations#36Central Bank of Sri Lanka Economic Research Department Rs.bn -800 -1000 -1200 -1400 -1600 -1800 -2000 -2200 Mar-12 Jun-12 Sep-12 Dec-12 Mar-13 Jun-13 Sep-13 Dec-13 Mar-14 Jun-14 Sep-14 Dec-14 Mar-15 Jun-15 Sep-15 Dec-15 Mar-16 -400 -600 Jun-16 Sep-16 Dec-16 Mar-17 -200 0 600 400 200 NFA of Central Bank NFA of Commercial Banks NFA of the Banking System Jun-17 Sep-17 Dec-17 Source: Central Bank of Sri Lanka Note: The sharp depreciation of the Sri Lanka rupee in March 2022 remains the key reason for the augmentation of monetary and credit aggregates in rupee terms in March 2022. Mar-18 Jun-18 Sep-18 Dec-18 Mar-19 Jun-19 1200 1000 800 Sep-19 Dec-19 Mar-20 Jun-20 Sep-20 Dec-20 Mar-21 Jun-21 Sep-21 Dec-21 Mar-22 Net Foreign Assets (NFA)#37Mar-16 5 % ୪୧ 160 Jun-16 7 8 9 10 Policy Interest Rates and Overnight Money Market Rates Sep-16 Dec-16 Mar-17 Jun-17 Sep-17 Dec-17 Mar-18 Jun-18 Sep-18 -Average Weighted Call Money Rate Central Bank of Sri Lanka Economic Research Department Dec-18 Mar-19 Jun-19 Sep-19 Dec-19 Mar-20 -Standing Deposit Facility Rate* Jun-20 Sep-20 Dec-20 Mar-21 Jun-21 Sep-21 Dec-21 Mar-22 -Standing Lending Facility Rate ** *Previously known as the Repo Rate ** Previously known as the Reverse Repo Rate Source: Central Bank of Sri Lanka 7.50 7.49 6.50#385 3 № 9 7 =1 11 13 15 Treasury Bill Yields and the Yield Curve Treasury Bill Yields (Primary Market)* Mar-16 Jun-16 Sep-16 Dec-16 Mar-17 Jun-17 Sep-17 Dec-17 Mar-18 Jun-18 Sep-18 Dec-18 Mar-19 Jun-19- Jun-19 Sep-19 Sep-19 91- Day Treasury bill -364- Day Treasury bill Central Bank of Sri Lanka Economic Research Department Dec-19 Mar-20 Mar-20 Jun-20 Jun-20 Sep-20 ༠༤:༠༠ང་ Dec-20 Mar-21 Jun-21 Sep-21 Dec-21 Mar-22 182- Day Treasury bill 4 6 % 8 10 12 14 16 3 18 Year 5 Year End 2019 End 2020 Secondary Market Yield Curve 7 Year 9 Year End 2021 11 Year 13 Year *Yield rates for some weeks are not available due to non-acceptance of bids or not offering of relevant tenors Mar-22 Source: Central Bank of Sri Lanka 15 Year#3920 10 + 9 16 8 12 14 16 Market Interest Rates Mar-16- Jun-16- Sep-16- Dec-16- Mar-17- Jun-17- Sep-17- Dec-17- Mar-18- Jun-18- Sep-18- Dec-18- Monthly Average Weighted Prime Lending Rate (AWPR) -Average Weighted Fixed Deposit Rate (AWFDR) Central Bank of Sri Lanka Economic Research Department Mar-19- Jun-19- Sep-19- 10.35 9.47 630 5.17 Dec-19- Mar-20- Jun-20- Sep-20- Dec-20- Mar-21- Jun-21- Sep-21- Dec-21- Mar-22- Average Weighted Deposit Rate (AWDR) -Average Weighted Lending Rate (AWLR) Source: Central Bank of Sri Lanka#40Central Bank of Sri Lanka Economic Research Department Financial Sector#41Rs. bn Banking Sector Indicators (i) Assets and Liabilities of the Banking Sector Stage 3 Loans of the Banking Sector 16,000 1200 14,150 14,000 12,879 1000 12,000 10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 2,000 10,727 11,438 0 2021 Q1 2022 Loans and Receivables ■Deposits Note: Data reported based on SLFRS. Central Bank of Sri Lanka Economic Research Department Rs. bn 8.4 9 8 7 800 6 4.7 5 600 4 400 200 0 Q1 2022 Gross Stage 3 Loans (Excluding undrawn portion) Gross Stage 3 ratio (Excluding undrawn portion) Net Stage 3 ratio (Including undrawn portion) Source: Central Bank of Sri Lanka 3 2 1 0#42Banking Sector Indicators (ii) Profitability Indicators Capital Adequacy Ratios 25 25 10 9,600 16.5 18 20.4 9,400 15.1 16 20 20 8 9,200 13.2 14 12.1 9,000 15 13.4 % di 4.2 di 3.5 10 4 60 12 12 8,800 % 10 8,600 8 8,400 60 1.6 5 2 8,200 1.1 8,000 0 0 7,800 8,240 2021 Q1 2022 Return on Equity (after tax) (LHS) Return on Assets (after tax) (RHS) Net Interest Margin (RHS) 7,600 2021 4 2 9,381 0 Q1 2022 Risk Weighted Assets Core CAR Total CAR Note: Data reported based on SLFRS. Central Bank of Sri Lanka Economic Research Department Source: Central Bank of Sri Lanka#43Banking Density by Province* 2009 2022 Q1 Northern 9.9 Northern 21.9 North Central 12.6 North Western 10.7 Central 11.5 Western 18.3 Sabaragamuwa 11.3 Souther 13.2 UVQ 11.6 North Central 15.9 Eastern 10.2 North Western 13.4 Central 14.3 Western 19.7 Sabaragamuwa 13.2 Souther 16.2 UVG 14.7 Eastern 16.4 Central Bank of Sri Lanka Economic Research Departmer *Banking Density by Province is calculated based on the mid-year population estimates published by the Department of Census and Statistics#44Rs. bn Non-Bank Financial Sector Indicators (i) Assets of the LFC & SLC Sector Total Deposits and Borrowings of the LFC & SLC Sector* 8.0 7.9 1,800 8 800 783.3 756.7 748.6 716.8 7.6 7.6 1,600 686.7 1,400 7.2 1,200 7 700 600 530.7 480.6 500 1,000 800 600 400 5.9 5.6 Rs bn 400 314.3 300 200 200 996.1 1,211.9 1,355.0 1,431.3 1,432.7 1,401.7 1,487.7 1,589.8 100 0 5 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 Q1 Total Assets (Net) Central Bank of Sri Lanka Economic Research Department -Share of the financial system (RHA) 0 2015 463.8 438.7 396.0 405.6 370.8 328.0 325.9 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 Q1 ■Total Deposits ■Borrowings Source: Central Bank of Sri Lanka * Deposits are only mobilised by the LFCS LFC: Licensed Finance Companies SLC: Specialised Leasing Companies#45Non-Bank Financial Sector Indicators (ii) Profitability Indicators of the LFC and SLC Sector Non-Performing Advances ୪୧ % 45 25 19.8 20 15 14.7 16.7 180 160 20.5 140 120 10.6 13.9 11.0 16 14 12 9.1 10 10 11.4 100 8.5 10 10.9 8.2 7.1 8.9 5.6 8.1 7.9 7.7 7.6 5 5.0 4.6 5.4 Rs bn 7.7 80 5.9 5.7 5.3 60 60 8 6 4.2 3.4 40 4 40 2.7 2.4 1.9 1.6 1.6 3.6 1.2 2 2.8 3.0 20 2.7 1.8 0 1.7 47.4 53.0 65.9 93.0 127.6 161.1 138.6 120.0 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 Q1 0 0 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 Q1 Return on Assets Return on Equity Note: Net Interest Margin Above ratios are calculated by annualising the financials commencing from 1st April of each year. Central Bank of Sri Lanka Economic Research Department % Gross NPA (Rs.bn) Gross NPA Ratio (%) Net NPA Ratio (%) Source: Central Bank of Sri Lanka#46Index 16,000 15,000 14,000 13,000 12,000 11,000 10,000 9,000 8,000 7,000 6,000 5,000 4,000 3,000 2,000 1,000 S&P SL 20 Index Stock Market Performance Share Price Indices and Market Capitalisation (a) Net Foreign Inflows to the Secondary Market 200 3,000 2,000 6,000 150 115.5 5,000 100 58 4,000 50 2.3 Rs.bn Mar-16 Jun-16 Mar-19 Jun-19 Sep-19 Dec-19 Mar-20 Jun-20 Sep-20 Dec-20 Mar-21 Jun-21 Sep-21 Dec-21 Mar-22 -250 -300 Market Capitalisation (RHA) All Share Price Index US$ mn 1,000 -150 -200 2015 -50 -37.3 -100 2016 2017 -127.2 -5.7 -64.6 Source: Colombo Stock Exchange (a) The CSE was not functioning during the period from 23 March 2020 to 6 May 2020 due to the prevailed conditions of the country with the spread of COVID-19 Central Bank of Sri Lanka Economic Research Department 2018 2019 -275.5 -262.7 2020 2021 2022 Q1#47The set of graphs above summarises macroeconomic and financial market trends in Sri Lanka. These graphs do not contain source data. An extensive set of data is available on the CBSL website. Information for the First quarter of 2022 is provisional. Central Bank of Sri Lanka Economic Research Department