#1BUILDING BACK BETTER CENTRAL SULAWESI: Planning For Resilient Infrastructure Post Earthquake Abdul Malik Sadat Idris Director of Water Resouces and Irrigation, Bappenas International Recovery Forum Kobe, 28 January 2020#2Outline: 1. Background: Understanding Risk and Central Sulawesi Earthquake 2. Planning Process for Rehabilitation and Reconstruction 3. Planning for Resilient Infrastructure 4. Enhancing Infrastructure Disaster Resilience for the Next Five Years 2#31. Background: Understanding risk - The Ring of Fire - EXPOSED POPULATION TO MULTI-HAZARDS 1-500,000 500,000.1-1,000,000 1,000,000.1-1,500,000 1,500,000.1-2,000,000 > 2,000,000.1 Tsunami fault traces TSUNAMI HAZARD (RUN UP) RP 475 YEARS (METRE) <1 1-3 3-10 10-20 >20 LANDSLIDE Low High SEISMIC HAZARD PGA RP 475 YEARS Low High Areas with high concentration of population exposure to geological hazards Source: UNESCAP, Asia-Pacific Disaster Report 2019 0 KILOMETRES 2000 4000 Concentration of population most exposed to seismic risks (earthquakes, landslides and tsunamis) are along the Pacific Ring of Fire (UNESCAP, 2018). The Ring of Fire hotspots with critical infrastructure exposure: Concentration of population are in growth centers or cities with a high risk of disaster → the potential for economic losses is also large. HOTSPOT 2 RING OF FIRE Earthquake, landslide and tsunami, typhoon tracks, North and East Asia, South-East Asia Population exposure High (disproportionate impact on poor) Economic stock exposure Very high Infrastructure: energy Infrastructure: transport Very high High Infrastructure: ICT Moderate 3#41. Background: Understanding risk - Exposed People and Assets - Number of lives and assets (USD) exposed to the risk of earthquake, tsunami, and landslides earthquake 86 million people 33,3 billion physical assets Source: BNPB, 2015 tsunami 3 million people 5 billion physical assets landslide 14 million people 5,5 billion physical assets Indonesia located in the ring of fire, with subduction path three times than Japan more than 1,800 disaster events in the period 2005 to 2015 Winlipe 62007 wingpe 62002 Distribution of earthquakes that occurred since 1600 (above) and tsunamis (below) Source: Prasetya, 2019#51. Background: Understanding risk - Central Sulawesi Earthquake - 4.340 dead and missing 172.635 evacuated 1,32 billion USD damage and losses 19,27% to GRDP Central Sulawesi Shake том WWW 2005 Coastal Area 13 For 20 Analysis as of This Moment Inland Area Landslide Liquefaction Flush Flood Liquefaction Liquefaction Land Subsidence wing of the during Gravity Flow 20-18 Tsunami Cascaded disasters#62. Planning Process: Coordination and Assistance Team for Rehabilitation and Reconstruction STEERING Committee + PERSON IN CHARGE IMPLEMENTING → TEAM >>>> Working Group 1 Disaster Risk-Based Regional Development ✓ Oversee the process of identifying disaster-prone areas (micro zonation), land carrying capacity based on disaster-prone areas, and inventory of needs for supporting infrastructure in the post-disaster areas ✓ Developing recovery and development plans Working Group 2 Regional Infrastructure Recovery ✓ Oversee the process of inventorying damage and recovery needs in the housing sector and basic infrastructure Developing recovery and development plans ✓ Working Group 3 Regional Economic Recovery and Socio-Cultural of Community ✓ Oversee the process of inventorying disasters impact on the socio-culture, community economy, and regional economy ✓ Developing recovery and development plans ✓ Working Working Group Group 4 5 Funding and Cooperation Oversee the process of activity budgeting and coordinate all financing collaboration activities with development partners related to post-disaster recovery and development programs Regulation and Institutional ✓ Supervise the regulation and institutional arrangements of regional and cross-sectoral governments in the post- disaster recovery and development process#72. Planning Process: Joint Commitment to Post-Disaster Rehabilitation and Reconstruction SULAWESI TENGAH Provincial Master Plan Central Sulawesi Governor Regulation No. 10, 2019 April 12, 2019. Palu City KOTA PALU Rehabilitation and Reconstruction Plan for Each District/City Sigi District KABUPATEN SIGI Donggala District KABUPATEN DONGGALA Parigi Moutong District KABUPATEN PARIGI MOUTONG MALIU NTUVU No 360/294.a/BPBD/2019 (March 25, 2019) No. 3/2019 (February 28, 2019) Source: Rehabilitation and reconstruction plan/action plans for each district/city affected by the disaster; Bappenas 2019 RISI RASA SONGU LARA MOMBANGU No. 8/2019 (January 31, 2019) No. 2/2019 (March 6, 2019)#82. Planning Process: Development Partner Support and Works Division Infrastructure Reconstruction Sector Loan (IRSL) "Emergency Assistance for Rehabilitation and સી. Central Sulawesi Rehabilitation and Reconstruction Project (CSRRP) Indonesia Disaster Resilience Initiative Project (IDRIP) Infrastructure and public facilities housing and water resources housing disaster resilience ADB THE WORLD BANK THE WORLD BANK#93. Resilient Infrastructure: The Strategy Infrastructure Strategy "Build Back Better" From 3 points of view 1 Recovery Needs from each Infrastructure 2 Constraints (Cost, Time, Social acceptance) 3 DRR (Disaster Risk Reduction) with all infrastructure Liquefaction To decrease groundwater level (1) Horizontal boring (2) Concrete lining of irrigation channel (3) Deep wells (4) Palu River Improvement (5) Utilization of ground water for new settlement Tsunami Village (4) Padly d (6) (Wet) (3) New settlement (5) Hazard Analysis > Tsunami ➤ Nalodo ➤Seismic shake ➤ Sediment disaster ➤ Flood Seismic Shake Building Inspection Board: ✔ Design check ✔ Inspection during construction ✔ Inspection after construction ✓ Soil strength ✓ Foundation type ✓ Structural Design ✓ Programming To secure road network redundancy Danggala Pork (Pant Prohibited zone Restricted zone Controlled zone Promoted Utilization of debris) zone Balanga Memorial Park Liquefaction areal Probable Tsunami Inundation Area 50-80 m Evacuation road Beach & Mangrove Elevated Coastal Road Tsunami resistant building "Ground floor is not allowed to live Source HCA 2019 S Pelobo Memorial Park Liquefaction area) Palu City Airport Existing Outer Ring Road (New) Jona Oge Memorial Park#103. Resilient Infrastructure: Considering all Hazards Points to consider Infrastructure facilities Earthquake Tsunami Liquefaction Sediment Flood Road Coastal area only Avoidance Disaster Risk Disaster Risk Bridge Coastal area only Avoidance Disaster Risk Disaster Risk Harbor Sea Dike River Dike Coastal area only Irrigation Coastal area only Water Supply/Sewerage Coastal area only Disaster Risk Disaster Risk Disaster Risk Disaster Risk Disaster Risk Disaster Risk system Architecture Coastal area only Avoidance Disaster Risk Disaster Risk Public facility Avoidance Avoidance Disaster Risk Disaster Risk Communications ⚫ Avoidance Avoidance Disaster Risk Disaster Risk Broadcasting#113. Resilient Infrastructure: National and International Panel Experts Involvement 16 January 2019 26 June 2019 July 2019 7-9 August 2019 9 October 2019 17 December 2019 CD Panel Meet Meet National Expert Team Panel Meeti National Workshop⠀ ⠀⠀ Liquefaction FGD Special Study Tsunami ! Recommendations 1. The construction of elevated roads as the main logistics route in Central Sulawesi Province 2. Reducing the risk of tsunami hazard in the Palu coastal area needs to be to be combined with green infrastructure (coastal vegetation) 3. Tsunami disaster risk reduction process should consider the possibility of future threats → Do further research to understand the previous events and to anticipate the future events. 11#123. Resilient Infrastructure: Elevated Logistic Road with Tsunami Mitigation Measures Function West-side-end 1201 Figogle B A 2018 Jalan Cumi-Cumi Palu IV bridge Jalan Rajamoli A B NEWS-03 + B' A 4km MLMS+0.3 3.5-45 14 East-side Elevation should be as low as possible 3.0 4.0 Tsunan evacuation bu 2nd stories A' B' evacuation buhang Source: JICA, 2019#133. Resilient Infrastructure: Joint Research for Tsunami Mitigation Measures JICA 32 Kementerian PPH Bappenas Experimental Series and Model Experiment flume Model Test for Tsunami Measures Purpose: Validity check for elevated road height as a tsunami countermeasure. Confirmation of tsunami mitigation effect by mangrove and inland trees. Tsunami Experiment Facility Experimental Station for Coastal Engineering - Buleleng Bali a Litbang Panta Kememenan UPR Mangrove Inland Trees Elevated Road Costal Protection Parameter Scenario Measuring instrument Slope Length=40m,Width=1m, Height=1m кар Banyuwang Sing dagt Gog BLAIS BALE Purwo National Park Dep Tanda Elevated Road Wave Target Mangrove Zone Costal Protection Inland Trees Elevated Road 1:100 3.5m, 4.5m, 5.5m Total Without, With (35m) With 27 Series Without, With (25m) Without, With (MSL+5.0, 6.5m) Gradjagan cm Mangrove Inventry Survey Mangrove Model Data review and analysis Participation of Japanese Experts Prof.Arikawa (Chuo Univ.) in Laboratory UPR#143. Resilient Infrastructure: Preparing for Potential Future Events Based on the megathrust potential data from the results of the 2017 National Earthquake Center (PusGeN) study, Priority areas for tsunami disaster risk mitigation are: • · The southern coast of the Indonesian Archipelago with priority for the city of Padang and its surroundings: Megathrust Mentawai-Pagai with potential M8.9 South Coast of Bengkulu-West Java including the Sunda Strait region: Megathrust Enggano-Sunda Strait-West Java (Sunda Gap) with the potential of each M8.8 or can be simultaneous with M> 9 South Coast of East Java - Nusa Tenggara: Megathrust Central Java - East Java and Bali with potential M8,9 North Coast of North Sulawesi: Megathrust Northern Sulawesi Trench with potential M8.5 5°0'0"N 10°0'0"N 15°0'0"N 0°0'0" 10°0'0"S 5°0'0"S 4,650 m 2,500 m Om -2,500 m -5,000 m -7,500 m . Coastal Area of Buru-Seram Island, Halmahera and Papua with potential M8.0 -10,000 m -10,977 Megathrust. Mentawai-Pagai M 8.9; -3.02; b=0.63 Megathrust Enggano M8.4; 5.57; b=1.05 Megathrust Selat Sunda M 8.7; a 5.99; b=1.15 95°0'0"E Megathrust Aceh-Andaman M 9.2 4.42; b=0.83 Megathrust Nias-Simelue M 8.7; a 4.48; b=0.88 Megathrust Batu M 7.8; a 4.59; b=0.89 Megathrust Mentawai-Siberut M 8.9; a 4.25; b=0.85 Megathrust North Sulawesi M 8.5; a=4.82; b=0.92 Megathrust Philippine M 8.2; a 4.70; b=0.83 Megathrust Papua M 8.7; a 5.16; b-0.96 Megathrust West-Central Java M 8.7; a 5.55; b=1.08 100°0'0"E 105°0'0"E 110°0'0"E Legenda Subduksi Megathrust East Java Megathrust Sumba Sesar M 8.7; a-5.63; b=1.08 M 8.5; a=5.63; b-1.11 Segmentasi Subduksi 115°0'0"E 120°0'0"E 125°0'0"E 130°0'0"E 135°0'0"E 140°0'0"E N Study of potential in areas predicted to cause future tsunamis with earthquake magnitudes> M8.0 250 km 750 km 1250 km 1750 km Source: Prasetya et al, 2019#154. Enhancing Infrastructure Disaster Resilience for the Next Five Years: Mainstreaming the Issue Disaster Management has become mainstream in the 2020-2024 RPJMN Disaster Management Activities are included in the Development Agenda (PN) 2, Development Agenda (PN) 5, and Development Agenda (PN) 6 in the 2020-2024 RPJMN Document Major Projects (MPS) related to Disaster Management: Post Disaster Rehabilitation and Reconstruction in Central Sulawesi, Banten and West Nusa Tenggara Provinces → Part of PN 2 Coastal Protection for 5 Urban North Coast of Java →→ Part of PN 5 Strengthening the Integrated Multi Hazards Mitigation System → Part of PN 6#16National Priority Strengthening Economic Resilience for Quality Growth Developing Areas to Reduce Inequality Improving Human Resources Quality and Competitiveness Mental Revolution and Culture Development PP 1: Basic Service Infrastructure Strategy and Targets า Strengthening Infrastructure to Support Economic Development and Basic Services Building the Environment, Enhancing Disaster Resilience and Climate Change Strengthening Political, Legal, Defense, and Security Stability and Transforming Public Services#17Terima kasih 17