Investor Presentaiton

Made public by

sourced by PitchSend

17 of 39

Creator

PitchSend logo
PitchSend

Category

Pending

Published

Unknown

Slides

Transcriptions

#1An H Photo credit: Uruguay XXI. República Oriental del Uruguay Institutional Investor Presentation August 2023 Ministerio de Economía y Finanzas 1#21 Key Credit Highlights 17 Despite solid real GDP growth q/q in 2023Q1, business cycle indicators suggest decelerating economic activity in 2023, impacted by drought and lower external demand. 2 Steady improvement of public finances 2020, 2021, and 2022, delivering on fiscal targets; moderate widening of fiscal deficit in the first half of 2023, driven by cyclically softer tax revenues and public infrastructure investment. 3 4 5 6 In the context of a significant deceleration of inflation within the target band, Central Bank gradually started reducing short-term policy rate, while holding a contractionary monetary policy stance. Current account deficit is more than financed by FDI, amid real exchange rate appreciation and large international reserve buffers. The government forges ahead with structural and fiscally conservative reforms, including the recent social security reform law passed by Congress. Strengthening in the Government's balance sheet, through a reduction in the sovereign's debt and interest burdens and continued improvements in the currency and debt structure. 7 Uruguay becomes the top performer on ESG fundamentals among EM countries; string of recent rating upgrades and improvements in credit outlook by all five rating agencies, reflecting strong fundamentals and relatively low country risk.#31 The economy continued to expand in 2022; however, leading indicators suggest slower growth in 2023 3 Garza (Garza Mora Ardea) Photo credit: Leonardo Colistro.#41 Economic activity expanded strongly in 2022, although real GDP growth has since decelerated; Uruguay leads GDP per capita in Latin America. Annual real GDP change (1) (YOY, In %) 7 5 3 1.2 1 -1 -3 -5 -7 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023Q1 Nominal GDP per capita 2022 (2) (Current prices, US dollars) 20,017 20000 15000 10000 5000 H (1) Source: Central Bank of Uruguay. (2) Source: WEO April 2023 International Monetary Fund estimates on nominal GDP in dollars and population for 2022. Regional and country-specific information is aggregated or reported, as applicable. Each country's information may be calculated differently and aggregated by each source using various methodologies. Accordingly, this comparison is for illustrative purposes only and we do not purport to assert that the above information is actually comparable. 4#51 Goods exports hit a record high in 2022 on the back of higher commodity prices and strong agricultural production; inbound tourism was higher in 2023Q1 than in 2019Q1, before the global pandemic. Export of goods (1) (Annual, in millions of FOB USD) 14000 Commodities exports prices (2) (Index base 100-Jan 2017) 7000 2011 2015 Export of goods by destination (1) (% in total, 2022) 7.6 160 10,026 140 120 100 80 2019 June 23 Feb-17 Last 12 months 130.8 Sep-18 Apr-20 Nov-21 Jun-23 Inbound tourism(3) (Number of people visiting Uruguay, in thousands) First quarter of each year Pandemic Second quarter 3000 21.7 China 30.2 European Union 2000 Brazil Argentina United States 1000 12.3 Rest of the world 18.3 (1) Source: Central Bank of Uruguay. 2019 2020(*) 2021(*) 2022 2023 (2) Source: CPA Ferrere, based on Bloomberg and National Institute of Meat of Uruguay (INAC). Weighted average of soybeans, meat, rice, dairy products, and pulp export prices. (3) Source: Ministry of Tourism. (*) 2020 and 2021 are estimates based on migration data, made by Ministry of Economy and Finance. Quarterly breakdown is not available for these years. Tourism 5 statistics for 2023 correspond to data collected up until the second quarter,#61 Strong labor market indicators reflected in an upturn in real wage growth, higher formal employment creation and more people looking for jobs. Employment and real wages (1) Unemployment Insurance and formal job creation (2) Real wage (YoY % change) Number of insurance Employment rate beneficiaries, in thousands. (average of last 12 months) 200 59 59 160 58 2 120 -2 57 80 56 40 55 Contributing jobs to Social Security, in thousands. 1550 W 1500 1450 41,268 1400 -4 54 1350 Jun-17 Jun-19 Jun-21 Jun-23 Oct-19 Sep-20 Aug-21 Jul-22 Jun-23 (1) Source: National Institute of Statistics. (2) Source: Social Protection Bank (Banco de Prevision Social). 6#71 Market-friendly business regulations, broad tax incentives and public road infrastructure projects underpin investment dynamics. Uruguay ranked #1 as “the safest country in Latin America to invest in" by Euromoney in 2022. • Uruguay offers a favourable environment and financial freedom for doing business. Foreign investors are granted the same incentives as local investors: there is no tax discrimination or restrictions for transferring profits abroad. Investor-friendly policies and regulations, respect for rule of law and trade Tax breaks for big-ticket construction projects and social housing ✓ Recent changes to the General Investment Promotion Regime (COMAP) providing more tax incentives encouraging employment creation (housing, offices and urbanization construction) and clean energy technologies. Investment projects submitted under promotion regimes (1) (USD million) 4,000 COMAP openness. Uruguay grants several incentives to 3,000 Great Economic Dimension Social Housing different types of activities, from industrial to commercial and services performed in the country. 2,000 Focus on attracting FDI to develop 1,000 sustainable sources of energy to export to the rest of the world. 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 (Jan-Jun) (1) Source: Ministry of Economy and Finance of Uruguay. The COMAP (by its acronym in Spanish) is the agency overseeing the investment promotion regime. 7#81 UPM completed the construction of the second pulp mill, on schedule, and started its production operations; announcement of a large FDI project for producing e-fuels to start in late 2024. UPM's pulp mill and Central Railway project (1) The construction of the new UPM plant was completed in December 2022 and the plant began operating in April 2023. UPM invested a total of approximately US$ 3.5 billion (4.8% of GDP) to build a 2.1 million-ton greenfield eucalyptus pulp mill in Durazno and a port terminal in Montevideo. The construction of the Central Railway is still ongoing. It will be running from Paso de los Toros city to the port of Montevideo (273 km long). FDI net capital inflows (2) (Rolling 4-quarters, in % of GDP) 6 4 2 -2 (1) Source: Ministry of Economy and Finance of Uruguay and UPM. (2) Source: Central Bank of Uruguay -4 2017Q1 2018Q3 2020Q1 2021Q3 5.4 2023Q1 ☐ ☐ On June 8, 2023, ANCAP announced a US$4 billion investment in infrastructure and facilities designed to produce e-fuels using green hydrogen and captured biogenic carbon dioxide, through a joint venture with HIF Global. Pursuant to ANCAP's announcement, the project is expected to produce 180,000 metric tons of e- gasolines per year using 710,000 tons of captured carbon dioxide produced by ANCAP's biofuel subsidiary and 100,000 tons of green hydrogen derived from electricity generation produced from expanded wind and solar sources. The construction is planned to start in late 2024.#91 Despite solid q/q real GDP growth in 2023Q1, leading indicators anticipate slower economic growth in 2023, weighed down by a severe drought and lower regional and global demand. Exports of goods (1) (YoY change in dollar amount, in %) 70 Industrial Production (2) (YoY real change, in %) 40 10 -20 -50 Oct-20 Jun-21 Tax revenue collection (3) (YoY real change, in %) 20 10 -10 Nov-20 Jul-21 20 י TT 5 TT -39.7 -10 Feb-22 Oct-22 Jun-23 Oct-20 Mar-22 Nov-22 Jun-21 Feb-22 0.6 Oct-22 Jun-23 Uruguay's Average Annual Rainfall (4) (Annual country average accumulated rainfall in mm) 2000 1500 1000 500 -2.5 Jul-23 2000 2006 2012 (1) Source: Ministry of Economy and Finance calculations based on data from the BCU. (2) Source: Ministry of Economy and Finance calculations based on data from the National Institute of Statistics. Data does not include production from the state-owned refinery. (3) Source: Tax Collection Office, Ministry of Economy and Finance. (4) Source: Inumet Historical Average 2018 2022 9#102 Fiscal discipline aligned with fiscal rule Cisnes en lago. Photo credit: Leonardo Colistro. 10 อ#112 Improvement in public finances since 2020 based on a strong commitment to fiscal discipline; the primary fiscal deficit has widened moderately in 2023 – mostly explained by an increase in public infrastructure investment and cyclically softer tax revenues. Central Government's fiscal balance (In % of GDP) -1 -3 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 Jun 2023* -5 Interest payments Primary balance -5.8 Overall balance -7 -4.1 -3.2 -3.9 Central Government overall deficit is budgeted at 3.2% of GDP in 2023, given projected real GDP growth of 1.3%. Source: Ministry of Economy and Finance of Uruguay and Central Bank of Uruguay, based on the Rendición de Cuentas 2022, submitted to Congress by end-June, 2023. Does not Include extraordinary inflows to the Social Security Trust Fund. (*) Last 12 months. Based on nominal GDP projection for the 12-month period ended June 2023. 11#122 The government has met the three pillars of the fiscal rule for three years in a row, underpinning fiscal credibility; targets for 2023 were set in the Annual Accountability Budget bill sent to Congress in June. Indicative target on structural fiscal balance, to account for business cycle fluctuations and one-off/temporary spending and revenue items. Structural balance (1) (In % of GDP) -1 Indicative target cap on real growth in primary expenditure in line with estimated potential real GDP growth Legally binding maximum level of annual net indebtedness in dollar amount. Net indebtedness (3) (USD mm) Primary spending (2) (Annual real change, in %) 3 Real primary spending growth Indicative target 4,000 Net Indebtedness Legal limit -2 2 -3 -2.7 1 -2.7 -4 -5 -6 2020 2021 Structural balance Indicative target 2022 2023* -1 2020 2021 2022 -0.6 2.1 3,000 2023* 2,000 1,000 2,860 2,370 2020 2021 2022 2023* Source: Ministry of Economy and Finance of Uruguay, based on the "Proyecto de Ley de Rendición de Cuentas 2022", submitted to Congress by end-June, 123 (1) (2) (3) (*) 2023. Structural balance refers to the fiscal outcome adjusted for fiscal items impacted by economic cycle fluctuations and one-off/temporary spending and/or revenues. Potential real GDP growth rate for 2023 estimated at 2,1% (i.e. the indicative target for real primary spending growth is 2.1%). For subsequent years, potential real GDP growth estimated at 2,8%. For 2023, the legal net indebtedness cap was increased from USD 2,200 million to USD 2,860 million due to the water deficit emergency, invoking the use of the legal escape clause in the fiscal rule. Government Net Indebtedness is defined as gross indebtedness (bond market issuance and disbursed loans) net of amortizations of market debt and loans, and the accumulation of Central Government's financial assets, during the fiscal year. Projections for 2023. 12#132 Foundations of the New Fiscal Framework Establishment of the Fiscal Advisory Council. Creation of the Expert Committee. Debt sensitivity analysis. Validation of Structural Balance calculations. Potential GDP. On September 29, 2021, the Fiscal Advisory Council (FAC) was established. The FAC is a technical, honorary and independent body composed of three members. It is tasked with assessing the overall implementation of the fiscal rule. The Expert Committee (EC) was created on December 29, 2021. The EC has eleven members representing Universities, consulting firms and think tanks. Will provide technical parameters to the Ministry of Economy and Finance used for the calculations and projections of the structural fiscal balance. On June 2022, a debt sensitivity analysis was conducted to quantify the uncertainty associated with the baseline debt projections. Key variables that drive debt dynamics are exposed to random shocks. These shocks are based on the historical behavior of each variable. A range of debt-to-GDP trajectories are obtained, which allows for an evaluation of the risk distribution around specific projection in the baseline scenario. On July 7, 2022, the FAC concluded that the calculation of the structural fiscal balance presented in the 2021 Budget Review was in accordance with the official methodology. On February 22, 2023, the FAC published the report with the review of the calculation of the Structural Fiscal Result 2022. The Central Government's structural fiscal deficit stood at 2.5% of GDP in 2022, 0.7 percentage points lower than the headline balance. On June 2023, the EC evaluated data such as capital stock, amount of employment, and total factor productivity. With these variables in play, the estimated GDP growth projection was 2.8% for the next 10 years, higher than the 2.1% observed in February 2022. Implementation of the new fiscal institutional framework marks the first time that the Ministry of Economy and Finance has clear, well-defined metrics and indicative targets to assess its fiscal policy and promote accountability. Furthermore, estimates for unobservable values (structural fiscal balance) have the methodological validation of the independent Fiscal Advisory Council. Source: Ministry of Economy and Finance. (*) FSS-Social Security Trust Fund. 13#147 Central Government's funding needs and financing sources for 2023. Flow of funds (Annual, in USD million) 2023 (*) 2024 (*) FINANCING NEEDS 5,287 4,454 Primary Deficit¹/ 590 243 Interest Payments ²/ 1,935 2,048 Amortizations of Bonds and Loans ³/ 2,685 2,140 Change in Financial Assets 78 23 FUNDING SOURCES 5,287 4,454 Disbursements from Multilaterals and Fin. Instit. 450 350 Total Issuance of Market Debt/ Others (net) 5/ Memo Item: Government Net Indebtedness (GNI) (*) Preliminary. The sum of the components may differ from the totals due to rounding. 4,682 3,995 155 110 2,370 2,182 (1) Excludes extraordinary transfers to the public Social Security Trust Fund (SSTF). (2) Includes interest payments to the SSTF on its holdings of Central Government debt, but does not net out market price valuation gains on above-par bond issuances. (3) For 2023, includes the obligations coming due on a contractual basis and bonds repurchased and early redeemed through August 2023. (4) Includes bonds issued domestically and in international markets. (5) Captures other financial sources of cash inflows for the Treasury, as well as financing operations that do not impact gross debt statistics. Source: Ministry of Economy and Finance of Uruguay. 14#153 Enhancing the monetary policy framework and bringing down inflation Cardenal Copete Rojo (Paroaria Coronata) Photo credit: Leonardo Colistro. 15#163 Monetary policies focused on reducing inflation and anchoring inflation expectations within target band 1 2 Commitment to lower inflation Short-term Interest rate as policy instrument Enhanced 3 transparency in communication 4 Contractionary monetary policy stance 5 Financial De- Dollarization Source: Central Bank of Uruguay. Key focus is to lower inflation and anchor inflation expectations within the target band, in a lasting way. ■ New monetary policy instrument under inflation targeting regime. Designed to improve market signals and allows for fine-tuning of monetary policy at higher frequency. Higher frequency in Monetary Policy Committee (MPC) meetings, published minutes of MPC, relaunched inflation survey, among others. ■ Publication of Central Bank's inflation projections and survey of firms' inflation expectations. ■ As the pandemic eased and inflationary pressures build up, the Central Bank shifted towards a more contractionary monetary policy stance, increasing the reference rate by a cumulative 700 bps since September 2020, to 11.50%. In the April 2023 meeting, it reduced the reference rate by 25bps (to 11.25%), which was subsequently maintained in the May 2023 COPOM meeting. In the July 2023 meeting, the decision was a reduction of 50bps (to 10.75%), while in the August meeting the reduction was 75bps (to the current 10%). Rebuilding markets in local currency to mitigate financial dollarization and developing FX derivatives markets ■ More differentiation on taxes on interest gains on financial instruments, favouring local currency deposits and securities vis a vis dollar instruments. ■ Encouraging public enterprises to be active in FX derivatives markets. 16#173 Headline inflation has fallen sharply (to lowest level in 18 years), on the back of decelerating tradeable and non-tradable inflation, unwinding of supply effects from the drought and a restrictive monetary policy. Headline inflation (1) (YoY, in %) Tradable inflation (2) (YOY, in %) Administered prices inflation (2) (YoY, in %) Weight in CPI Basket: 40.6% 16 22.8% 12.0 12 -Headline inflation Core inflation 12 8 4 8.0 1.05 4.0 2.5 Jul-20 Jul-21 Jul-22 Jul-23 Jul-20 Jul-21 Jul-22 Jul-23 Non-tradable inflation (2) (YOY, in %) Fruits and vegetables inflation (2) (YOY, in %) 12 33.7% 55 2.9% 28.9 Inflation target band 4.8 4 4 8 4 40 7.6 25 10 -5 Jul-20 Apr-21 Jan-22 Oct-22 Jul-23 -20 Jul-20 Jul-21 Jul-22 Jul-23 Jul-20 Jul-21 Jul-22 Jul-23 (1) Source: National Institute of Statistics and Central Bank of Uruguay. (2) Source: Central Bank of Uruguay. Core inflation excludes fruit and vegetables as well as administered prices. 17#183 Inflation data is in line with the scenario projected by the Central Bank; July 2023 had the largest downward surprise inflation (-0.76) since 2012. Central Bank's projected inflation path and inflation expectations (2) (YoY, in %) 12 Estimated Surprise inflation component (2) (Difference between MoM headline inflation and MoM median inflation expectation for corresponding month, in %) 0.8 10 8 6 4 Inflation target band Central Bank's projected I 0.6 Inflation path as of I June 2023 L 0.4 0.2 Inflation Expectation by end-2023 6.25 0.0 -0.2 Monthly inflation above market expectation for that month -0.4 Monthly inflation below market -0.6 expectation for that month 2 -0.8 -0.76 Jun.-20 Sep.-21 Dec.-22 Mar-24 Jun-25 Jul-21 Mar-22 Nov-22 Jul-23 (1) Source: Source: Central Bank of Uruguay. Quarterly forecasts of the baseline scenario as of June 2023. Median inflation expectations based on Central Bank's market survey as of July 2023. (2) Source: Central Bank of Uruguay. 18#193 In the context of receding inflationary pressures, Central Bank is gradually reducing the short-term policy rate, while holding a contractionary monetary policy stance; the nominal exchange rate showed relatively low volatility over the last three years. Monetary Policy Rate (MPR) and interbank interest rate (1) (In %) 12 11 MPR Interbank interest rate (average) Nominal exchange rate (2) (Uruguayan pesos per dollar, daily) 44 10 8 7 0 5 4 3 Apr-20 Implementation of the MPR regime May-21 Jun-22 40 10.0% Jul-23 36 Feb-21 Dec-21 37.79 Oct-22 Aug-23 Nominal exchange volatility in LatAm (3) (Quarterly average of the absolute value of daily percent changes) 1.6 1.2 0.8 0.4 0.0 2019Q2 Colombia Chile Brazil Mexico Peru Uruguay 2020Q2 2021Q2 2022Q2 20232Q2 (1) Source: Central Bank of Uruguay. Before September 2020, the monetary policy instrument was growth in M1 monetary aggregate. (2) Source: Central Bank of Uruguay. (3) Source: own calculations based on Bloomberg. Regional and country specific information is as aggregated or reported, as applicable. Each such country information may be calculated differently and aggregated by each respective source using various methodologies. Accordingly, this comparison is for illustrative purposes only and we do not purport assert that the above information is actually comparable. 19#204 Stable current account; banking sector with low exposure to the region 20 Photo credit: Uruguay XXI.#214 Current account deficit fully financed by FDI, on the back of a resilient balance of goods and services... Current account balance and FDI (Rolling 4-quarters, in % of GDP) CAB 5.0 FDI 4.0 CAB + FDI 3.0 2.0 1.0 0.0 -1.0 -2.0 -3.0 -4.0 2017Q3 Source: Central Bank of Uruguay. Goods and services balances (Rolling 4-quarters, in % of GDP) 9 5.4 Balance of Services Balance of Goods 7 -Trade Balance of Goods and Services 5.7 2.6 5 3 1 T 1.0 4.7 -2.8 -1 2020Q2 2023Q1 2017Q3 2020Q2 2023Q1 21#224 ... despite real exchange rate appreciation; large international reserve buffers are a significant external backstop. Real Effective Exchange Rate of Uruguay (1) (Index base 100 = average 2017) 140 -Multilateral excluding Arg and Bra 130 -Multilateral -Regional 120 110 100 90 80 My 96.5 International reserves in Latam (2) (As of end 2023Q2, in % of GDP)* 30 20.2 20 87.7 10 79.9 70 Jun-17 Jun-18 Jun-19 Jun-20 Jun-21 Jun-22 Jun-23 (1) Source: Central Bank of Uruguay. (2) Source: International Monetary Fund. Reserves of Brazil and Mexico correspond to May 2023. Reserves of Peru correspond to July 2023. The GDP used is an average of the nominal GDP 2022 and 2023 from WEO April 2023. 22#234 Banking sector remains well-capitalized, with high liquidity levels and low exposure to the region, yet with still-high deposit dollarization. Solvency and dollarization of the banking system Number of times of minimum regulatory capital 2.0 1.5 Banking system's exposure to non-residents (To the non-financial sector, % of total) (1) Dollarization of Deposits of the Private Sector (% of total) 84 60 42 40 20 80 2001 Deposits Loans 20 18.1 76 1.0 72 Mar-15 Mar-17 Mar-19 Mar-21 Mar-23 Source: Central Bank of Uruguay. 10 2001 8.4 2023* 5.0 2023* (1) End-period; data for deposits includes only private non-financial sector. (*) As of May 2023. 23#245 IIIII Photo credit: Uruguay XXI Government-led structural reforms BABA 24#255 Government forges ahead with structural and fiscally- conservative reforms: "keeping the high-beam headlights on" Urgent Consideration (UC) Law(1) Approved on July 9th, 2020 ■Changes in the tax code for small businesses. ■Changes in the regulatory framework for energy markets. Commission of experts of the Pension Reform submitted the diagnosis on March 23rd 2021 and has 90 days onwards to present a comprehensive reform to Congress. ■ Draft of new fiscal 2020-2024 Budget Law 2021 Budget Review Approved on December 18th, 2020 New governance for public enterprises: performance targets and accountability. Environmental and ESG-focused policies (Helsinski Principles). ■ Implementation of new fiscal institutionality. Approved on November 3rd, 2022 ■ Fullfillment of the three pillars of the Fiscal Rule in 2021 Proposes additional expenses for three specific areas: education, I+D and citizen security. Provides for further public policies to foster the long-term growth of the Social Security Reform Approved on April 27th, 2023 Parametric changes to all schemes. Established a common system for all the schemes that exist in the country. ■ Creation of an independent regulatory agency that oversees the entire regime. Mechanisms to encourage voluntary savings. (1) On March 27th, 2022, a public referendum was held on whether to repeal, or uphold, 135 articles of the Urgent Consideration Law voted in 2020. The majority of the population (51,3%) voted in favour of upholding them. Source: Ministry of Economy and Finance of Uruguay. framework. 25 25#26Social Security reform: focusing on long-term fiscal sustainability and improving equity of the pension system Social Security Reform ■ The reform plans to consolidate all retirement regimes, converging into a single system. Ten years after the approval (2033) the convergence will start, with the old pension system rules. weighing 50% and the new one 50%. The new system will gradually replace the old one, and the influence of the systems will be modified by 5% each year. So, the new system will fully take effect by 2043. ■ The approved reform gradually increases the retirement age to 65 years ■The minimum amount of worked years to retire stands at 30, although contributing for 35 or 38 years will result in early retirement at 64 or 63, respectively. ■ The calculation for pensions will include the best 20 years of income. ■ Allows current retirees to participate in the labor market and contribute to the pension system, alleviating fiscal pressures and expanding labor supply. ■ Increases benefits for vulnerable groups improving the equity of the system 26 26#276 Photo credit: Uruguay XXI. Resilient debt structure and sustainable financing strategies อ 27 27#286 The government debt-to-GDP ratio has decreased since the onset of the pandemic shock, while debt management strategies and relative price effects have significantly reduced the dollarization of debt Gross and net debt stock of the Central Government (As of end-period, in % of GDP) 80 Gross debt Currency and maturity composition of debt (As of end-period) Debt in foreign currency (% of total) 80 -Average time to maturity (in years, RHS) 16 Net debt 61.3 57.4 60 60 40 20 56.2 54.6 40 20 12.6 12 45 8 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2007 2011 2015 2019 2023Q2 Q2 Source: Debt Management Unit, Ministry of Economy and Finance of Uruguay 28#296 Uruguay has the lowest sovereign risk premia in Latin America, keeping contained interest payments as a share of GDP. Interest payments (1) (in % of GDP) 3.0 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 Sovereign risk premia in LATAM (2) (EMBI spread, in bps; as of August 29th, 2023) 800 -MEX BRL COL -PER PAN -URY 2.3 650 -CHL 500 350 200 50 Uruguay 93 Feb-20 Apr-21 Jun-22 Aug-23 (last 12 months) 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 1) Source: Ministry of Economy and Finance of Uruguay. 2) Source: Bloomberg. Regional and country-specific information is aggregated or reported, as applicable. Each country's information may be calculated differently and aggregated by each source using various methodologies. Accordingly, this comparison is for illustrative purposes only and we do not purport to assert that the above information is actually comparable. 29 20#306 Cornerstones of debt management strategy and sustainable financing goals for 2023. Increase local currency funding in domestic 7 and international markets, while developing secondary markets (liquidity, points in the curve, price formation and more market-makers). Keep refinancing risk contained through LM operations, precautionary liquidity buffers and contingent credit lines. Diversify sources of funding and continue broadening the investor base, particularly ESG-focused accounts. Align sovereign funding strategies (in bond market issuance and multilateral loans) with achieving ambitious environmental targets to address climate change and nature conservation. 130#317 Strong ESG foundations 31 Photo credit: Uruguay XXI#3220 40 Serbia Uruguay Costa Rica Romania Malaysia 60 7 Emerging Markets' ESG Score Uruguay is the top global performer on ESG fundamentals in emerging markets. (Index, 100 = best performance; as of end-July, 2023) 80 Uruguay (#1) Georgia Armenia Trinidad... UAE Mexico Dominica... Senegal Ecuador Bahrain Colombia South... Namibia Brazil Mongolia Peru Rwanda Kazakhstan Sri Lanka Uzbekistan Guatemala Cote... Azerbaijan China Turkey Lebanon -50 -100 -150 -200 Change in index weight when moving from Conventional EMBI to ESG-Adjusted EMBI (In basis points; as of July 31th, 2023) 200 150 Uruguay 100 50 Hungary Romania Saudi Arabia Chile Philippines Colombia Costa Rica Peru Qatar Jordan Ukraine Ecuador Jamaica Kuwait Georgia Trinidad And Tobago 60 countries (1) Source: J.P. Morgan Chase & Co. Disclaimer: "Information has been obtained from sources believed to be reliable but J.P. Morgan does not warrant its completeness or accuracy. The Index is used with permission. The Index may not be copied, used, or distributed without J.P. Morgan's prior written approval. Copyright 2021, J.P. Morgan Chase & Co. All rights reserved." Regional and country-specific information is aggregated or reported, as applicable. Each country's information may be calculated differently and aggregated by each source using various methodologies. Accordingly, this comparison is for illustrative purposes only and we do not purport to assert that the above information is actually comparable. Senegal Armenia Uzbekistan Tunisia Suriname Papua New Guinea Azerbaijan Gabon Zambia South Africa Kenya Egypt Turkey Mexico 32#337 Uruguay has a relatively low poverty rate and gender inequality, and the highest share of middle-class people in LatAm. Poverty compared to LatAm (1) (In % of total population, year 2021)* 40 30 20 10 Share of middle class people compared to LatAm (3) (Year 2021, in % of total population)* 60 58.5 4.8 50 MEX COL SLV BOL ECU ARG BRA DOM PRY PER CRI PAN CHL URY (*) Except for Mexico (2020), El Salvador (2020) and Chile (2020). Poverty rate for Argentina is not including because only considers urban areas 40 Gender inequality compared to LatAm (2) (Inequality Index, 2021) 0.5 0.4 0.3 0.2 30 Lower gender inequality 20 0.24 10 0.1 COL BOL PAN BRL PER ECU MEX ARG URY CHL URY ARG CHL CRI BRA PRY BOL DOM PER COL MEX SLV ECU 1) Source: ECLAC 2) Source: United Nations Development Program (UNDP), Human Development Reports 2021; Gender Inequality Index is a composite measure reflecting inequality in achievement between women and men in three dimensions: reproductive health, empowerment and the labour market. 3) Source: Inter-American Development Bank; Middle class defined as percentage of population that lives in households with per capita income between USD 12,4 and USD 62 a day. 33#347 Uruguay is a bastion of institutional, political, and social stability in LatAm, ranking alongside most developed nations Democracy index (1) (Score from 1 to 10, year 2022) 10 Adherence to the Rule of Law (2) (Numerical score out of 1, year 2022) 0.8 8 6 4 2 "Full Democracy" 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.0 Civil Unrest (3) (Index out of 10, first quarter of 2020) 10 Political Stability and Absence of Violence/Terrorism (4) (Percentile rank, 2021) 100 8 6 4 2 80 60 40 20 O IL Sources: (1) The Economist Intelligence Unit (2023); (2) World Justice Project (2022); (3) Verisk Maplecroft (2020); (4) Worldwide Governance Indicators, World Bank (2021). Regional and country specific information is as aggregated or reported, as applicable. Each such country information may be calculated differently and aggregated by each respective source using various methodologies. Accordingly, this comparison is for illustrative purposes only and we do not purport assert that the above information is actually comparable. 34#357 In June 2023, Fitch raised Uruguay's credit rating to “BBB”; all five rating agencies now place Uruguay at least one notch above the investment grade threshold, for the first time on record. Uruguay's sovereign credit ratings (1) (As of July 31th, 2023) Baa1/BBB+ /BBB (high) Baa2/BBB /BBB Baa3/BBB- /BBB (low) Investment Grade Latest credit rating actions Fitch Ratings MOODY'S STANDARD & POOR'S RATINGS SERVICES MCGRAW HILL FINANCIAL On June 7, 2023, Fitch raised the long-term foreign and local currency sovereign credit ratings on Uruguay to 'BBB' from 'BBB-'. The outlook is stable. On May 17, 2023, Moody's Investor Service affirmed Uruguay's long-term foreign and local currency sovereign credit ratings at Baa2 and upgraded the outlook from stable to positive. On April 26, 2023, S&P Global Ratings raised the long-term foreign and local currency sovereign credit ratings on Uruguay to 'BBB+' from 'BBB'. The outlook is stable. DBRS On November22, 2022, DBRS-Morningstar upgraded Uruguay's Long-Term Foreign and Local Currency-Issuer Ratings to BBB. The outlook is stable. R&I Outlook: R&I S&P Moody's DBRS Fitch (Stable) (Stable) (Positive) (Stable) (Stable) On October 21, 2022, R&I upgraded the Foreign Currency Issuer Rating to BBB+. The outlook is stable. Source: Moody's, S&P, R&I, DBRS-Morningstar and Fitch. Agency ratings are not a recommendation to buy, sell or hold any security, and they may be revised or withdrawn at any time by the issuing organization. Each agency's rating should be evaluated independently of any other agency's rating, as each agency has different evaluation criteria. 35#36República Oriental del Uruguay THANK YOU

Download to PowerPoint

Download presentation as an editable powerpoint.

Related

Q4 & FY22 - Investor Presentation image

Q4 & FY22 - Investor Presentation

Financial Services

FY23 Results - Investor Presentation image

FY23 Results - Investor Presentation

Financial Services

Ferocious - Plant Growth Optimizer image

Ferocious - Plant Growth Optimizer

Agriculture

Market Outlook and Operational Insights image

Market Outlook and Operational Insights

Metals and Mining

2023 Investor Presentation image

2023 Investor Presentation

Financial

Leveraging EdTech Across 3 Verticals image

Leveraging EdTech Across 3 Verticals

Technology

Axis 2.0 Digital Banking image

Axis 2.0 Digital Banking

Sustainability & Digital Solutions

Capital One’s acquisition of Discover image

Capital One’s acquisition of Discover

Mergers and Acquisitions