#1Jammu and Kashmir Delimitation or Disempowerment? - IFTIKHAR GILANI#2PAKISTANI- ADMINISTERED KASHMIR Line of Control CHINA Siachen Glacier Aksai Chin (Chinese- Clash in Galwan Valley administered) Line of Actual Control INDIAN-ADMINISTERED KASHMIR JAMMU & KASHMIR PAKISTAN INDIA LADAKH BBC#3KASHMIR DIVISION HAVING DISTRICT BOUNDARIES KUPWARA BUARA MUILA CUAN DE BAL BADHAM PULINAMA KULICAM ANANTNAG#4JAMMU DIVISION HAVING DISTRICT AND TEHSIL BOUNDARIES#5Jammu and Kashmir, 2011 census, Religious Data ▶ Total population: 12,541,302 Muslims: 8,567,485 68.31% Hindus: 3,566,674 28.43% Sikhs: 234,848 1.87% Buddhists: 112,584 0.89%#6Kashmir Valley (District wise) District Total population Hindus %age Muslims %age Kupwara 870354 37128 4.26 823286 94.59% Budgam 753745 10110 1.34% 736054 97.65% Baramulla 1008039 30621 3.03% 959185 95.15% Bandipora 392232 8439 2.15% 382006 97.39% Srinagar 1236829 42540 3.43% 1177342 95.19% Ganderbal 297446 5592 1.88% 290581 97.69% Pulwama 560440 13840 2.46% 535159 95.48% Shopian 266215 3116 1.17% 262263 98.51% Anantnag 1078692 13180 1.22% 1057005 97.98% Kulgam 424483 4247 1.05% 418076 98.49% Total 6888475 168813 2.45% 6640957 96.4%#7Jammu Division ▸ Total Population: 5378539 Hindus: 3364616 Muslims: 1799232 62.55% 33.45%#8Jammu Districts District Total Population Hindus %age Muslims %age Kathua 616435 540063 87.61% 64234 10.42% Udhampur 554985 489044 88.11% 59771 10.76% Reasi 314667 153896 48.90% 156275 49.66% Jammu 1529958 1289240 84.26% 107489 7.02% Samba 318898 275311 86.33% 22950 7.19% Total 3334943 2747554 82.38% 410719 12.31%#9Pir-Panchal Districts District Total Hindus %age Muslims %age Population Poonch 476836 32604 6.83% 431279 90.44% Rajouri 642415 221880 34.53% 402879 62.71% Total 1119251 254484 22.73% 834158 74.52%#10Chinab Valley Districts District Total Hindus %age Muslims %age Population Doda 409936 187621 45.76% 220614 53.81% Ramban 283713 81026 28.55% 200516 70.67% Kishtwar 230696 93931 40.71% 133225 57.74% Total 924345 362578 39.22% 554355 59.97%#11Jammu Division is not homogenous, it comprises of: Muslims: 33.45% SC/Dalits: 20% Brahmins: 23% Rajput/Dogras: 12% Vaish: 5.5% Sikhs: 6%#12Ladhakh Division ➤ Total Population: 274289 Hindus: 33223 Muslims: 127296 12.11% 46.40%#13Ladakh (Leh and Kargil) District/ Hill Total Population Hindus %age Muslims %age Buddhists %age Council Leh 133487 22882 17.14% 19057 14.27% 88635 66.39% Kargil 140802 10341 7.34% 108239 76.87% 20126 14.29% Total 274289 33223 12.11% 127296 46.40% 108761 39.65%#14Based on population distribution Kashmir division had 46 seats and Jammu division 37 seats in the Jammu and Kashmir assembly. Total: 87 seats (4 of Ladakh, now excluded) SATLABAD AXANTIAG SOPORE JAMMU & KASHMIR ASSEMBLY SEGMENTS MAP GOGLARKAS CAFE E#15Jammu and Kashmir Reorganization Act adopted by Indian Parliament in August 2019 provides a new legislature with 90 seats#16On March 6, 2020 Government of India appoints Delimitation Commission - MINISTRY OF LAW AND JUSTICE (Legislative Department) NOTIFICATION New Delhi, the 6th March, 2020 at, oft, an eng, unfer S.O. 1015(E)-In exercise of the powers conferred by section 3 of the Delimitation Act, 2002 (33 of 2002), the Central Government hereby constitutes the Delimitation Commission for the purpose of delimitation of Assembly and Parliamentary constituencies in the Union territory of Jammu and Kashmir and the States of Assam, Arunachal Pradesh, Manipur and Nagaland, consisting of the following members, namely 2. (1) Justice (Retd.) Ranjana Prakash Desai Shri Sashil Chandra, Election Commissioner The State Election Commissioner of the concerned State or Union Territory appointed under clause (1) of article 243K or under clause (1) of article 243L of the Constitution, as the case may be Chairperson Member, (ex officio) Member, (ex officio) The appointment of Justice (Retd.) Ranjana Prakash Desai shall be for a period of one year from the date of the publication of this notification in the Official Gazette or till further orders, whichever is carlier. 3. The said Delimitation Commission shall delimit the constituencies, of the Union territory of Jammu and Kashmir in accordance with the provisions of part V of the Jammu and Kashmir Reorganisation Act, 2019 (34 of 2019) and the provisions of the Delimitation Act, 2002 (33 of 2002); (ii) of the States of Assam, Arunachal Pradesh, Manipur and Nagaland in accordance with the provisions of the Delimitation Act, 2002 (33 of 2002). [F. No. H-11019/3/2019-Leg II] Dr. G. NARAYANA RAJU, Secy. Uploaded by De. of Priming at Government of India Press Ring Road, Mayapur, New Delhi-110064 and Published by the Costeller of Publications, De-110054#17A year later the term of the Delimitation Commission was extended and confined only to Jammu and Kashmir - MINISTRY OF LAW AND JUSTICE (Legislative Department) NOTIFICATION New Delhi, the 3rd March, 2021 S.O. 1023(E).- In exercise of the powers conferred by section 3 of the Delimitation Act, 2002 (33 of 2002), the Central Government hereby makes the following amendments in the notification of the Government of India in the Ministry of Law and Justice (Legislative Department), number S.O. 1015(E). dated the 06 March, 2020, namely:- In the said notification.- (i) in the opening paragraph,- (a) the words, "and the States of Assam, Arunachal Pradesh, Manipur and Nagaland". shall be omitted; (b) for sub-paragraph (iii), the following sub-paragraph shall be substituted, namely:- "(iii) The State Election Commissioner, the Union territory of Jammu and Kashmir." (ii) in paragraph 2, for the words, "one year", the words, "two years" shall be substituted; (iii) in paragraph 3, sub-paragraph (ii) shall be omitted. [F. No. H-11019/3/2019-Leg.11] Dr. REETA VASISHTA, Addl. Secy. Note: The principal notification number S.O. 1015(E), dated 06 March, 2020 was published in the Gazette of India, Extraordinary, Part II, Section 3, Sub-section (ii) on 06 March, 2020.#18The leaders of 9 mainstream/pro-India political parties met Prime Minister Narendra Modi on June 24#19These leaders demanded: Return of Statehood Restoration of assemblance of autonomy ▶ Putting on stop to demographic changed in the event of abrogation of local citizenship law Restoration and election to regional assembly Setting up of a political structure#20Home Minister, Amit Shah, spelled out a roadmap in the order • Undertaking an exercise of Delimitation/redrawing boundaries for assembly constituencies Conducting elections on new demarcations Allowing the new assembly to adopt resolution to request New Delhi to return statehood Once exercise is completed Indian Home Ministry will draft and then present legislation to the Parliament Jammu and Kashmir parties asked to participate in the limitation exercise • National Conference, major party in the region, agrees to attend the Delimitation#21BJP ex-officio member of the Delimitation Commission demands that the area, not population, should be made criteria for new assembly constituencies in a bid to increase seats for Hindu majority Jammu division#22Area of Jammu and Kashmir - 42,241 sq. Km Area of Kashmir Division Area of Jammu Division - – 15,948 sq. Km - 26,293 sq. Km PAKISTAN PAKISTANI- ADMINISTERED KASHMIR Line of Control CHINA Siachen Glacier Aksai Chin (Chinese- Clash in Galwan Valley administered) Line of Actual Control INDIAN-ADMINISTERED KASHMIR JAMMU & KASHMIR INDIA LADAKH BBC Ladakh now a separate Union Territory has area of 59,146 sq. Km#23Average population per assembly segment in Kashmir - 149,749 Average population per assembly segment in Jammu - 145,365 Muslim representation in last assembly - 66.66% (58 members against 68.31% of Muslim population) Hindu community representation in last assembly - 31% (27 MLAs against 28.43% of Hindu population)#24The formula of making population as the criteria for demarking electoral constituencies is in practice all over India S. State/UT No. No. of Total Area parliamentary Population (kms) (Lok Sabha) (2011) constituencies Average Population Average area per per parliamentary parliamentary constituency constituency 19,98,12,341 2,40,928 24,97,654 3,011.6 1. Uttar 80 Pradesh 2. Madhya 29 7,26,26,809 3,08,245 25,04,372 10,629.134 Pradesh 3. Assam 14 4. Jharkhand 14 5. NCT of 7 3,12,05,576 78,438 3,29,88,134 79,714 1,67,87,941 1,483 22,28,969 5,602.72 23,56,295 23,98,277 5,693.85 211.85 New Delhi#25Despite Kashmir Valley having more population has same number of 10 districts as Jammu division Hence, both divisions have same number of District Development Councils KUPWARA BANDIPORA BARAMULA PUNCH GANDERBAL SRINAGAR BADGAM PULWAMA SHOPIAN KULGAM ANANTNAG RAJAURI RAMBAN REASI JAMMU KISHTWAR DODA UDHAMPUR SAMBA KATHUA KARGIL LADAKH#26- Therefore in light of the DDC pattern there is likelihood of distributing 45 seats each to the Jammu and Kashmir valley divisions. - There is proposal to reserve 18 seats for Scheduled Casts/Dalits/Lower Caste Hindus and Scheduled Tribes or tribal groups - The reserved seats are distributed between the two regions - There is fear that this exercise will decrease the number of Muslims in the assembly because from the reserved seats no Muslim, particularly from Kashmir, will be able to contest.#27There are instances elsewhere in India when Dalit or Scheduled Casts seats have been kept in General category and Muslim majority seats in reserved so that no Muslim is able to contest and win elections. It seems the same formula is being applied to Jammu and Kashmir for complete political disempowerment of local Muslims Appendix Table 2.2: State Assembly Electoral Constituency/Tahsil, Reserved for Scheduled Castes with relative share of Muslim Population Tahsil Name Total Population SCs Muslim Population Population STS Population Uttar Pradesh: Reserved Assembly Constituency SCs Pop as % of Total Population Muslims as % of Total Population Hapur 773899 220996 181026 11 23.4 28.6 Najibabad 605199 297892 139227 418 23.0 49.2 Nagina 625366 264523 134807 2004 21.6 42.3 Koil 1373814 368210 283384 203 20.6 26.8 Khalilabad 605777 194538 123577 192 20.4 32.1 Mankapur 530697 95791 87701 9 16.5 18.1 Jansath 767827 280764 125816 0 16.4 36.6 Faridpur 383771 88280 61607 16.1 23.0 Uttar Pradesh: Un-Reserved Assembly Constituencies Marihan 189950 6167 93575 617 49.3 3.2 Ghorawal 225824 10198 100869 8 44.7 4.5 Lalganj 287983 17125 122031 189 42.4 5.9 Hardoi 975970 85110 391950 98 40.2 8.7 Misrikh 764302 65750 289823 19 37.9 8.6 Sandila 828047 120541 309395 75 37.4 14.6 Haidergarh 507962 72085 182517 61 35.9 14.2 Bakshi Ka Talab 276134 33062 98476 93 35.7 12.0 Tahrauli 151202 4688 53302 57 35.3 3.1#28Reduced number of Muslims in bureaucracy Out of 24 secretaries only 5 are Muslims Out of 58 top serving officers: 12 are Muslims (17.24% Muslims) In the Second tier of civilian bureaucracy: Muslims are 220 (42.06%) out of 523 Police services: out of 66 top police officers 7 (10.6%) are Muslims Second tier of Police service out of 248: 108 (43.54%) are Muslims#29In view of the lower number of Muslims in the state bureaucracy already, now the new scheme of demarking assembly constituencies and reserving seats will further decrease Muslims, particularly from Kashmir, in political structures, thereby, will complete their disempowerment#30Genuine peace is possible by empowering people Only peace of a graveyard is possible by disempowering people. Pushing people's back to the wall is a recipe for disaster. John Hume, an architect of Northern Ireland's Good Friday peace agreement, once said that "Even a small faction of dissatisfied population can be a perpetual security threat." Therefore, for the sake of peace, it is imperative to remove dissatisfaction and evolve a people's centric approach to settle the issue of Jammu and Kashmir forever to the lasting peace of South Asia.#31THANK YOU