#1Climate Change in Gilgit-Baltistan: impacts on humans and hazards David Petley Wilson Professor of Hazard and Risk Executive Director, Institute of Hazard, Risk and Resilience Durham University, United Kingdom Boulby Geoscience Facility W The Durham http:daveslandslideblog.blogspot.com University#2· · · • · Gilgit-Baltistan is very hazard prone Earthquakes Glacial lake floods. Melting permafrost Drought Landslides Avalanches Floods Dynamic but poor population means that risk is exacerbated and resilience is low#3Major faults in Pakistan (George Pararas-Carayannis) Central Iran block Persian Gulf Eurasian plate Lut block Quetta Earthquake 31 May 1935 Turan block Tarim block MKT Altyn Tagh fault Tibet block Karakurm fault MBT Banga MFT Herat fault Afghan block Chaman fault Balochistan MMT MBT Upper Indus S.R.T Pakistan Lower Middle. Indus Jaisalmer Punjab Arabian plate Cambay Murray ridge Kutch Gulf of Cambay Km 500 Miles 250 India#440 35 Himalayan Seismic Hazard (Bilham 2001) locking line 1885 1905 Islamabad 5 km 500 km S contraction uplift N Tibet Himalaya India locked locking line sliding Indian plate 20 mm/yr 100 km 30. Urban population ? 1803 2 million Delhi Kathmandu, 500,000 Lucknow 200,000 1947 1833 1934 1930 10 8.2 8 E 8.1 potential magnitude certain possible 8.0 9 + 2 potential slip, m 1950 25- 1819 2001 1897 Dhaka Bhuj Calcutta 70 75 80 85 90 95°E#5Pakistan seismic hazard map (before 2005) EXPLANATION Minic demage one simpanding Major damage zone comesponding to intensity above VR in MM scale Area within one-3. Determined certain faut system by printy Encontre Hot spring AFGHANISTAN Peshawar AMABAS Git Lahore VION Skardu Jammu &#6GSHAP seismic hazard model: Pakistan and Afghanistan Kabol⭑ Islamabad✶ Lahore Karachi PEAK GROUND ACCELERATION (m/s²) 10% PROBABILITY OF EXCEEDANCE IN 50 YEARS, 475-year return period 0 0.2 0.4 LOW HAZARD 0.8 1.6 2.4 3.2 4.0 MODERATE HAZARD HIGH HAZARD 4.8 VERY HIGH HAZARD#7PAKMET 2006 seismic hazard map for N. Pakistan 0.5 10 15 20 25 30 35 40 45 50 55 60 65 70 Ground Motion (m/ss) 70° TI 72' 73° 74° 30- 37° 36° 35- 34° 33 70° 78 36 36 35° 34 Tismaton 72' 73° 37 36' 35' 33' 7157 76° 100 Year Recurrence Period 0.5 1.0 1.5 2.0 2.5 3.0 3.5 4.0 4.5 5.0 5.5 6.0 6.5 7.0 Ground Motion (m/ss) 70° 717 72° 73' 747 75° 76° 37 367 500 Year Recurrence Period#860 Latest Pakmet seismic hazard map 67" 68° 69 70% 74 Kuzdar Gwadar Tubat Karachi 78 35 Muzaffarabad Islamabad Multan Lahore 10 PGA (m/s²) 30#9Very high levels of vulnerability#10Difficulties in providing assistance#118 00 °C 4 CAS Climate forecasts (IPCC 2007) NAS 8 °C 4 0 1900 1950 2000 2050 2100 8 4 TIB EAS 8 0 0 0 1900 1950 2000 2050 2100 1900 1950 2000 2050 2100 1900 1950 2000 2050 2100 SAS 8 °C 4 8- SEA 0 0 1900 1950 2000 2050 2100 1900 1950 2000 2050 2100#12IPCC 2007 forecast temperature and precipitation for 2099 Annual DJF JJA Temp Response (°C) Prec Response (%) Num of Models > 0 80°N 60°N 40°N 20°N 80°N 60°N 40°N 20°N 80°N- 60°N 40°N 20°N 80°N 60°N 40°N 20°N- 40°E 80°E 120°E 160°E 40°E 80°E 120°E 160°E 40°E 80°E 120°E 160°E 58° 0° 40°E 80°E 120°E 160°E 80°N 60°N 40°N 20°N 80'N- 60°N 40°N 20°N .0 80°N- 60°N 80°N- 60°N 40°N 20°N- °° 40°E 80°E 120°E 160°E 40°E 80°E 120°E 160°E 40°N 38° 20°N 40°E 80°E 120°E 160°E 40°E 80°E 120°E 160°E 80°N- 60°N 40°N 20°N 40°E 80°E 120°E 160°E 10°C 7 5 4 3.5 3 2.5 2 1.5 1 0.5 ° -0.5 -1 50% 30 20 15 10 5 0 -5 -10 -15 <-20 -30 <-50 21 Modelt 19-20 17-18 14-16 8-13 5-7 3-4 1-2 ° Forecast warming is 3.3 C (S. Asia) to 3.7 C (Tibet) Also increased extreme precipitation, but maybe less overall#13Likely impacts of warming Gilgit-Baltistan More drought, for longer periods Challenges in agricultural productivity Increased flood potential Increased landslide / rockfall potential Need for adaptation#14Global warming and the monsoon 60E 65E 70E 75E 80E 85E 90E 95E 100E 105E 60E 65E 70E 75E 80E 85E 90E 95E 100E 105E 40N 40N 40N 40N 35N 35N 35N 30N 30N 30N 35N 30N 25N 25N 25N 25N 20N T 20N 20N 20N 15N 15N 15N 15N 10N 10N 10N 10N 5N 11 SH 5N 5N EQ 60E 65E 70E 75E 80E 85E 90E 95E 100E 105E 10 EQ NG 03 EQ 60E 65E 70E 75E 80E 85E 90E 95E 100E 105E 5N EQ -6.-5. -3. -2 -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. -6.-5. -4. -3. -2. -1. 0. 1. 2. 3. 4. 5. 6. Change in daily rainfall (mm/day) Change in monsoon daily rainfall (mm/day) Scenario = Doubling of CO2 From: May 2004#15Summary of S. Asian monsoon and climate change During warming over the last 50 years, monsoon rainfall has reduced Possible increase in drought risk 4.0 Precipitation intensity 2.0 0.0 .2.0 Precipitation amount Monsoon area .4.0 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 From: Zhou et al. 2008#1680 60 1990-2000 ■ 2000-2009 Total glacial lakes expansion (ha/year) 40 -20 -40 40 40 20 20 60 100 gg Impact on glacial lakes Gardelle et al 2011 +20% +30% +13% +7% +10% +33% +24% +23% -11% +33%. -44% -36% 0 1 2 3 +19% +3% Hindu Kush Karakorum Spiti Lahaul Garhwal West Nepal Everest Bhutan#17Cumulative number of fatalities Climate hazards - the human cost of landslides worldwide 90000 80000 70000 Landslides from the 60000 Wenchuan earthquake 50000 40000 30000 Landslides from the Kashmir earthquake 20000 82,439 10000 0 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 Date Other disasters 2002-2009 (CRED database) Earthquake: 429,877 Storm: 166,410 River flood: 37,860 Volcano: 221#18Number of fatalities 900 800 Trend in occurrence for the Himalaya region 700 Fatalities 600 500 120 R2 = 0.7705 100 80 60 60 400 R2 = 0.4394 Landslides 300 40 200 100 0 0 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 20 Number of NFLs#19Global fatal rainfall-induced landslides - 2006 to 2009#2040N 38N Himalayan Arc - 2004 to 2009 36N 34N 32N 30N 2BN- 26N- 24N 22N 20N 66E 69E 72E 75E 78E 84E 87E 90E 9.3E 96E 99E (c) GPCC 2010/9/5 1 10 25 50 75 100 150 200 300 400 600 800 1000#21Attabad landslide - an example of a disaster in Gilgit-Baltistan#22mbry#23W Durham University Slope identified as unstable in 2003#24Empty#25Empty#261. Progressive failure over >7 years 2. Catastrophic failure event in Jan 2010 with no trigger 3. Emplacement of rockslide onto lake sediments triggered secondary high velocity mudflow event#27Empty#28Empty#291858 landslide dam Imagery Dates Feb 22, 2005- Aug 19, 2006) 2010 ChesSpot Image Intigo 2010 DigitalGlebe lat 36 298067 on 74 793900 elev 2835 m Google#30Wenchuan Risk Table Yang et al 2010 Table 1 Standard for breach risk evaluation of Quake lakes Influence factors Endangered lives in downstream area (thousand) Risk level Extremely high risk High risk Medium risk Low risk >1000 500-1000 100-500 <100 Materials and structure Mostly soils, Soils with massive of landslide dam loose rubble, medium Massive rubble with soils, Mostly massive rubble, with structure loose structure dense structure gaps Maximum probable 10³ 104-105 10³-10+ <103 storage capacity (1000 m³) Quake lake catchment >1000 100-1000 50-100 <50 area (km²) Landslide dam height (m) >100 50-100 25-50 <25#31Management of the hazard Initial management response was the construction of a spillway. - - - Original intention: 30 metres deep Actual depth at time of overtopping: 15 metres Final spillway was very narrow and unlined#32Evacuations • After the landslide, Focus installed sirens in 15 villages People in most hazardous areas relocated into camps Boat service established on lake, but enormous hardship upstream One month before overtopping NDMA evacuated 15,000 people downstream of barrier#33Water depth (metres) 20 20 0 01/01/2010 40 120 Water level rise 100 Water depth (m) Height of lowest point of completed spillway 00 80 60 60 29/01/2010 26/02/2010 26/03/2010 23/04/2010 Date 21/05/2010 18/06/2010 16/07/2010 -1 0 1 2 + 50 CO 6 7 8 Rate of filling (metres per day) 3#34Water depth (metres) Overtopping behaviour 120 Water depth (m) 117.5 Height of lowest point of completed spillway 115 112.5 110 107.5 105 102.5 100 21/05/2010 28/05/2010 04/06/2010 11/06/2010 18/06/2010 25/06/2010 02/07/2010 09/07/2010 16/07/2010 23/07/2010 30/07/2010 0 -1 N 5 CO 6 7 8 Rate of filling (metres per day)#35Spillway evolution#36Empty#37Empty#38Management problems Karakoram Highway remains blocked After recent floods, Gilgit-Baltistan was cut off to north and south Loss of productive land Loss of cash crop markets. Landslide hazard remains - Progressive failure - GLOF - - - Seismic event Landslide into lake#39Conclusions · · · • · Earthquakes Glacial lake floods. Melting permafrost Drought Landslides Avalanches Floods Urgent need to: @ @ 2000 shan Peshawar Khyber Pakhtunkhwa 10/26/2010 2011 Gilgit, Pakistan Gilgit-Baltistan ایبٹ باد Abbottabad Azad Kashmir - improve disaster risk reduction - monitor and evaluate - undertake basic research - capacity build Pakistan-controlled Kashmir A US Dept of State Geographer 2011 Google 2011 Europa Technologies 2011 Mapabe.com Srinagar 35°37'46.96 N 75 02 45.87 E elev 3526 m Shaksgam Valley 2010 Google India-controlled Kashmir Eye alt 536 85 km#40@ @ 14 2000 shan Khyber Pakhtunkhwa Peshawar 10/26/2010 3 x 2011 Conclusions Gilgit, Pakistan Gilgit-Baltistan Pakistan-controlled Kashmir Azad Kashmir US Dept of State Geographer 2011 Google ©2011 Europa Technologies 2011 Mapabc.com श्रीनगर Srinagar 35°37'46.96 N 75°02'45.87 E elev 3526 m o ایت باد Abbottabad Shaksgam Valley N 2010 Google India-controlled Kashmir Eye alt 536.85 km