#1IPC Integrated Food Security Phase Classification Evidence and Standards for Better Food Security and Nutrition Decisions Acute Food Insecurity Situation in Sindh, Balochistan and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa Results of IPC Acute Food Insecurity Analysis October 2021 IPC Global Partners With the support of ACTION AGAINST HUNGER care CILSS IGAD European Commission 8 Oxfam D O Save the Children AFood and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations FAMINE EARLY WARNING SYSTEMS NETWORK SICA unicef → FEWS NET FOOD SECURITY CLUSTER Strengthening Humanitarian Response Global NUTRITION CLUSTER WFP Sistema de la Integración Centroamericana for every child World Food Programme EUROPEAN UNION wfp.org Ukaid from the British people USAID FROM THE AMERICAN PEOPLE#2IPC ◉ Integrated Food Security Phase Classification Evidence and Standards for Better Food Security and Nutrition Decisions WHAT IS IPC A set of tools and procedures (protocols) for classifying the nature and severity of food insecurity A process for multiple stakeholders to share information and build technical consensus Inform strategic decision making that responds to needs in a more coordinated manner Three scales of IPC: Acute Food Insecurity (AFI), Chronic Food Insecurity (CFI) and Acute Malnutrition (AMN)#3. • IPC Integrated Food Security Phase Classification Evidence and Standards for Better Food Security and Nutrition Decisions OBJECTIVES OF IPC ACUTE FOOD INSECURITY ANALYSIS Assess the acute food insecurity situation in 25 districts across 3 provinces (Sindh, Balochistan and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa) Sindh: Badin, Dadu, Jamshoro, Mirpur Khas, Sanghar, Sujawal, Tharparkar, Thatta, and Umerkot Balochistan: Chagai, Kech, Kharan, Killa Abdullah, Loralai, Nushki, Panjgur, Pishin, and Washuk Khyber Pakhtunkhwa: Bajaur, Khyber, Kurram, Mohmand, North Waziristan, Orakzai, and South Waziristan • • Classify areas based on the prevalence of acute food insecurity Identify major contributing factors to acute food insecurity • Indicate implications for response planning#4FIAT Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations MONITORING OF FOOD SUPPLY, AGRICULTURAL LIVELIHOODS AND FOOD SECURITY IN THE CONTEXT OF COVID-19 & OTHER SHOCKS (HOUSEHOLD ASSESSMENTJULY-AUGUST 2021) BASAUR SALARZAL L KHAR UTMAN KHEL MAMUND NAWAGA AMBAR UPPER KURRAM MOHMAND BAIZAI PANDIALI PRANG GHAR KHWAZAI HALIMZAI YAKA GHUND LANDI KOTAL MULAGORI BARA KHYBER JAMRUD LOWER ORAKZAI CENTRAL ORAKZAI ORAKZAI KURRAM UPPER ORAKZAI CENTRAL KURRAMISMAILZA LOWER KURRAM SHEWA SPINWAM BIRMAL DATA KHEL GHULAM KHAN NORTH WAZIRISTAN MRAN SHAH RAZMAK SHAWAL DOSSALI MIR ALI GARYUM MAKIN LADHA TARZA SARAROGHA SERWAKA SOUTH WAZIRISTAN TOI KHULLA IRAN (ISLAMIC REPUBLIC OF) TAFTAN NOKRUND TUMP KECH CHAGAI OALBANDIN MASHKNEL SHAOGAR WASHUK WASHUK PANJGUR AMEEN PAROME GOWA KECH (TURBATI GICHK ARABIAN SEA GILGIT BALTISTAN KHYBER PAKHTUNKHAWA PAKISTAN ADMINISTERED ISIDE OF L.O.C BAJAUR MOHMAND KHYBER KURRAM ORAKZA NORTH WAZIRISTAN AFGHANISTAN SOUTH WAZIRISTAN DOBANDBARSHORES CHAMAN KILLA RANZA ABDULLAH SHAN Abbot PISHINAST ANAN GUSTAN NUSHKI BALOCHISTAN MARAN TOMULIKHARAN SAR KHARAN NAG KHAIRPUR ATHAN SHAH DADU SEHWAN SHAR LORALAI SINDH SHATOADPURSANGHAR SINGHORO JAMSHORO JAM NAWA THANO KOTR BULA KHAR THATTA ON BUX & MOREE SANGHAR Jatek SHOWAAB PITOKOT MAROUMERKOT KHAS MUHAMMAD ALMARY DIGRUN THATTA THORO SURNAL NEED TANDO BA AZ BADIN KA HORABAR BRANC BADIN SUJAWAL BUNDE BUNDER PUNJAB ISLAMABAD P.A.K CHINA INDIAN ADMINISTERED SIDE OF L.O.C INDIA ADMINISTRATIVE LIMITS Country Surveyed Districts DATA SOURCE FAO, GFSC - Province District Surveyed Tehsils N Date Created: 16 Sep 2021 Prepared by: Geospatial Team, FAO Pakistan 0 150 300 450 CHACHRO DISCLAIMER Kilometers THARPARKAR The boundaries and names shown and the designation used on this map do not imply official endorsement or acceptance by the United Nations. Dotted line represents appro- ximately the Line of Control in Jammu and Kashmir agreed upon by India and Pakistan. The final status of Jammu and Kashmir has not yet been agreed upon by the parties. Household Assessment Covered Districts: 25 Tehsils: 99 Households: 4625#5IPC Integrated Food Security Phase Classification Evidence and Standards for Better Food Security and Nutrition Decisions RESULTS OF IPC ACUTE FOOD INSECURITY ANALYSIS-BALOCHISTAN#6IPC Integrated Food Security Phase Classification Evidence and Standards for Better Food Security and Nutrition Decisions IPC ACUTE FOOD INSECURITY ANALYSIS-KEY FINDINGS-BALOCHISTAN Of the total rural population in 9 districts analysed in Balochistan Overall, an estimated 0.86 million people (25% of the rural population in current period (October 2021-March 2022) are classified in IPC Phase 3 (Crisis) and 4 (Emergency) and urgent action is required to protect livelihoods and reduce food consumption gaps of people in Crisis and Emergency phases of acute food insecurity. ➤ 1.33 million people (39% rural population) in Phase 1 (Food Secure/Minimal Acute Food Insecurity) ➤ 1.20 million people (35% rural population) in Phase 2 (Stressed) 0.68 million people (20% rural population in Phase 3 (Crisis) and ➤ 0.17 million people (5% rural population is estimated to be in Phase 4 (Emergency) Out of 9 districts analysed • • 1 district (Nushki) is classified in IPC Phase 2 (Stressed), whereas remaining 8 districts (Chagai, Kech, Kharan, Killa Abdullah, Loralai, Panjgur, Pishin, and Washuk) are classified in IPC Phase 3 (Crisis). Chagai, Kharan, Loralai, Panjgur and Washuk are the areas with 30 percent or more population in IPC Phases 3 (Crisis), • Pishin and Kech both have 25 percent population in IPC Phases 3 (Crisis) and above. In the projected period (April-June 2022) 0.92 million people (27% of the rural population) are classified in IPC Phase 3 (Crisis) and 4 (Emergency). No change in phase classification of districts, however, a slight increase in number of people (60,438 or about 9 percent), facing Crisis levels of food#7IPC Integrated Food Security Phase Classification Evidence and Standards for Better Food Security and Nutrition Decisions IPC ACUTE FOOD INSECURITY ANALYSIS MAP FOR BALOCHISTAN CURRENT PERIOD (OCTOBER 2021-MARCH 2022) PROJECTED PERIOD (APRIL-JUNE 2022) KECH CHAGAI GWADAR WASHUK PANJGUR KILLA ZHOB SHERANI KILLA SAIFULLAH MÚSAKHEL ABDULLAH PISHIN QUETTA ZIA RAT HARNAI LORALAI BARKHAN MASTUNG SIBI KOHLU NUSHKI KACHHI LEHRI KALAT DERA BUGTI KHARAN NASIRABAD JHAL MAGSI SOHBATPUR KHUZDAR AWARAN LASBELA KECH CHAGAI GWADAR WASHUK PANJGUR KILLA ABDULLAH ZHOB SHERANI KILLA SAIFULLAH MUSAKHEL PISHIN ZIARAT HARNAI QUETTA LORALAI BARKHAN MASTUNG SIBI KOHLU NUSHKI KACHHI LEHRI KALAT DERA BUGTI KHARAN NASIRABAD JHAL MAGSI SCHBATPUR KHUZDAR AWARAN LASBELA Key for the Map IPC Acute Food Insecurity Phase Classification (mapped Phase represents highest severity affecting at least 20% of the population) 1 - Minimal 2 - Stressed 3 - Crisis 4- Emergency 5 - Famine Areas not analysed Evidence Level ** Medium#8IPC Integrated Food Security Phase Classification Evidence and Standards for Better Food Security and Nutrition Decisions RESULTS OF IPC ACUTE FOOD INSECURITY ANALYSIS-SINDH#9IPC Integrated Food Security Phase Classification Evidence and Standards for Better Food Security and Nutrition Decisions IPC ACUTE FOOD INSECURITY ANALYSIS-KEY FINDINGS-SINDH Of the total rural population in 9 districts analysed in Sindh • Overall, an estimated 2.33 million people (23% of the rural population in current period (October 2021-March 2022) are classified in IPC Phase 3 (Crisis) and 4 (Emergency) and urgent action is required to protect livelihoods and reduce food consumption gaps of people in Crisis and Emergency phases of acute food insecurity. ➤ 4.44 million people (43% rural population) in Phase 1 (Food Secure/Minimal Acute Food Insecurity) ➤ 3.46 million people (34% rural population in Phase 2 (Stressed) 1.69 million people (17% rural population in Phase 3 (Crisis) and 0.63 million people (6% rural population) is estimated to be in Phase 4 (Emergency) Out of 9 districts analysed 2 districts (Badin and Dadu) are classified in IPC Phase 2 (Stressed), whereas remaining 7 districts (Jamshoro, Mirpur Khas, Sanghar, Sujawal, Tharparkar, Thatta, and Umerkot) are classified in IPC Phase 3 (Crisis). • Jamshoro, Mirpur Khas, Sanghar, Sujawal, Tharparakar, Thatta and Umerkot have 20-30 percent population in IPC Phase 3 (Crisis) and above. In the projected period (April-June 2022) • 2.2 million people (22% of the rural population) are classified in IPC Phase 3 (Crisis) and 4 (Emergency). . No change in phase classification of districts, however, a slight reduction in number of people (130,800 or about 6 percent)#10IPCH Integrated Food Security Phase Classification Evidence and Standards for Better Food Security and Nutrition Decisions IPC ACUTE FOOD INSECURITY ANALYSIS MAP FOR SINDH CURRENT PERIOD (OCTOBER 2021-MARCH 2022) PROJECTED PERIOD (APRIL-JUNE 2022) KARACHI QAMBAR KASHMORE JACOBABAD SHIKARPUR SHAHDADKOT LARKANA DADU NAUSHAHRO FEROZE SHAHEED BENAZIRABAD JAMSHORO MATIARI THATTA SUKKUR KHAIRPUR TANDO ALLAHYAR TANDO MUHAMMAD KHAN SUJAWAL BADIN GHOTKI SANGHAR UMER KOT MIRPUR KHAS KARACHI THARPARKAR KASHMORE JACOBABAD SHIKARPUR QAMBAR SHAHDADKOT LARKANA SUKKUR DADU NAUSHAHRO FEROZE SHAHEED BENAZIRABAD JAMSHORO MATIARI KHAIRPUR GHOTKI SANGHAR TANDO ALLAHYAR UMER KOT MIRPUR KHAS Key for the Map IPC Acute Food Insecurity Phase Classification (mapped Phase represents highest severity affecting at least 20% of the population) 1 - Minimal 2 - Stressed 3 - Crisis 4- Emergency 5- Famine Areas not analysed Evidence Level ** Medium THATTA TANDO MUHAMMAD SUJAWAL KHAN BADIN THARPARKAR#11IPC Integrated Food Security Phase Classification Evidence and Standards for Better Food Security and Nutrition Decisions RESULTS OF IPC ACUTE FOOD INSECURITY ANALYSIS-KHYBER PAKHTUNKHWA#12IPC Integrated Food Security Phase Classification Evidence and Standards for Better Food Security and Nutrition Decisions IPC ACUTE FOOD INSECURITY ANALYSIS-KEY FINDINGS-KHYBER PAKHTUNKHWA Of the total rural population in 7 districts analysed in Khyber Pakhtunkhwa Overall, an estimated 1.5 million people (30% of the rural population in current period (October 2021-April 2022) are classified in IPC Phase 3 (Crisis) and 4 (Emergency) and urgent action is required to protect livelihoods and reduce food consumption gaps of people in Crisis and Emergency phases of acute food insecurity. ➤ 1.7million people (35% rural population) in Phase 1 (Food Secure/Minimal Acute Food Insecurity) ➤ 1.8 million people (35% rural population) in Phase 2 (Stressed) 1.2 million people (24% rural population in Phase 3 (Crisis) and ➤ 0.3 million people (6% rural population is estimated to be in Phase 4 (Emergency) Out of 7 districts analysed · • All 7 districts (Bajaur, Khyber, Kurram, Mohmand, North Waziristan, Orakzai, and South Waziristan) are classified in IPC Phase 3 (Crisis). Mohmand, North Waziristan, Orakzai and South Waziristan have more than 30 percent population in IPC Phases 3 (Crisis) and above Bajaur, Khyber and Kurram have 20-25 percent population in IPC Phases 3 (Crisis) and above. In the projected period (May-June 2022) . 1.6 million people (32% of the rural population) are classified in IPC Phase 3 (Crisis) and 4 (Emergency). No change in phase classification of districts, however, a slight increase in number of people (97300 or about 8 percent), facing Crisis levels of food#13IPC Integrated Food Security Phase Classification Evidence and Standards for Better Food Security and Nutrition Decisions IPC ACUTE FOOD INSECURITY ANALYSIS MAP FOR KHYBER PAKHTUNKHWA CURRENT PERIOD (OCTOBER 2021-MARCH 2022) PROJECTED PERIOD (APRIL-JUNE 2022) CHITRAL UPPER DIR SWAT KOHISTAN SHANGLA LOWER DIR BAJAUR BATAGRAM MANSEHRA TOR MOHMAND MALAKAND BUNER GHAR AGENCY MARDAN ABBOTTABAD SWABI HARIPUR PESHAWAR KHYBER NOWSHERA KURRAM ORAKZAI FR KOHAT HANGU KOHAT KARAK FR BANNU NORTH WAZIRISTAN BANNU SOUTH WAZIRISTAN FR TANK TANK LAKKI MARWAT FR D.I.KHAN D. I. KHAN CHITRAL UPPER DIR SWAT Key for the Map KOHISTAN MANSEHRA IPC Acute Food Insecurity Phase Classification (mapped Phase represents highest severity affecting at least 20% of the population) 1 - Minimal 2 - Stressed 3 - Crisis 4- Emergency 5 - Famine Areas not analysed Evidence Level ** Medium SHANGLA LOWER DIRT BAJAUR BATAGRAM TOR MOHMAND MALAKAND AGENCY BUNER GHAR MARDAN ABBOTTABAD SWABI PESHAWAR HARIPUR KHYBER NOWSHERA KURRAM ORAKZAI FR KOHAT HANGU KOHAT KARAK FR BANNU NORTH WAZIRISTAN BANNU SOUTH WAZIRISTAN FR TANK TANK LAKKI MARWAT FR D.I.KHAN D. I. KHAN#14IPC Integrated Food Security Phase Classification Evidence and Standards for Better Food Security and Nutrition Decisions CONSOLIDATED FINDINGS FOR SINDH, BALOCHISTAN AND KHYBER PAKHTUNKHWA (CURRENT PERIOD) Around 4.66 million people (25% of the rural population) are estimated to be in IPC Phase 3 (Crisis) and 4 (Emergency) in 25 rural districts of Sindh, Balochistan and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, As per IPC AFI analysis conducted in October 2021 Out of 4.66 million people, 3.57 million people (19% of the rural population) are in Phase 3 (Crisis) and 1.09 million people, 6% of rural population) are in Phase 4 (Emergency) in the current period (October 2021-March 2022). Out of 25 analysed districts, only 3 districts (Badin, Dadu and Nushki) are classified in IPC Phase 2 (Stressed). Remaining 22 districts (Jamshoro, Mirpur Khas, Sanghar, Sujawal, Tharparkar, Thatta, Umerkot, Chagai, Kech, Kharan, Killa Abdullah, Loralai, Panjgur, Pishin, Washuk, Bajaur, Khyber, Kurram, Mohmand, North Waziristan, Orakzai, and South Waziristan) are in IPC Phase 3 (Crisis). The analysis of the projection period (April-June 2022), indicates the number of people in Crisis and Emergency phases is expected to increase slightly to 4.69 million (25% of the rural population in the 25 analysed districts). No change in area phase classification, 3 districts (Nushki, Badin and Dadu) are classified in IPC Phase 2 (Stressed), whereas remaining 22 districts will remain in phase 3 (Crisis). Around 300,000 additional people will be in IPC Phase 3 and above during the projection period.#15IPC Integrated Food Security Phase Classification Evidence and Standards for Better Food Security and Nutrition Decisions IPC ACUTE FOOD INSECURITY ANALYSIS MAP FOR PAKISTAN Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations IPC ACUTE FOOD INSECURITY ANALYSIS (OCTOBER 2021) IRAN (ISLAMIC REPUBLIC OF CHAGAI KECH GWADAR WASHUK PANJGUR AFGHANISTAN KILLA ABDULLAH IPC Integrated Food Security Phase Classification Evidence and Standards for Better Food Security and Nutrition Decisions CHINA GHIZER CHITRAL GILGIT HUNZA NAGAR GILGIT BALTISTAN KHYBER PAKHTUNKHWA DIAMIR KOHISTAN UPPER DIR SWAT (PAKISTAN ADMINISTERED SIDE OF L.O.C) GHANCHE LOWER DIR BAJAUR MOHMAND MARDAN TOR AGENCY KHYBER KURRAM ORAKZAI FR HANGU KOHAT FR KARAK NOWSHERA HARIPUR, KOHAT PAK ISLAMABAD SUDHNOTI ASTORE SKARDU BATAGRAM MANSEHRA GHAR MUZAFFARABAD NEELUM BUNER HATTIAN BALA SWABI INDIAN ADMINISTERED SIDE OF L.O.C POONCH, KOTLI ATTOCK RAWALPINDI MIRPUR NORTH BANNU WAZIRISTAN BANNU CHAKWAL JHELUM MIANWALI BHIMBER GUJRAT SOUTH FR LAKKI TANK MARWAT KHUSHAB WAZIRISTAN TANK MANDI BAHAUDDIN SARGODHA SIALKOT GUJRANWALA NAROWAL D. I. KHAN FR PUNJAB HAFIZABAD DJ.KHAN BHAKKAR CHINIOT ZHOB SHERAN SHEIKHUPURA NANKANA SAHIB LAHORE JHANG FAISALABAD KILLA SAIFULLAH LAYYAH KASUR MUSAKHEL TOBA TEK SINGH OKARA PISHIN ZIARAT QUETTA HARNAI MASTUNG NUSHKI KALAT KHARAN BALOCHISTAN AWARAN KACHHI DERA MUZAFFARGARH LORALAI GHAZI KHAN KHANEWAL VEHARI BARKHAN MULTAN SIBI LODHRAN KOHLU LEHRI DERA BUGTI NASIRABAD JHAL MAGSI SOHBATPUR JACOBABAD KASHMORE SHIKARPUR GHOTKI QAMBAR SHAHDADKOT KHUZDAR LARKANA SUKKUR NAUSHAHRO DADU FEROZE KHAIRPUR SINDH SHAHEED BENAZIRABAD MATIARI LASBELA JAMSHORO TANDO KARACHI ARABIAN SEA THATTA THATTA SANGHAR RAJANPUR ALLAHYAR UMER KOT RAHIM YAR KHAN TANDO MUHAMMAD KHAN MIRPUR KHAS BADIN THARPARKAR SUJAWAL BAHAWALPUR SAHIWALA PAKPATTAN BAHAWALNAGAR INDIA Key for the Map IPC Acute Food Insecurity Phase Classification (mapped Phase represents highest severity affecting at least 20% of the population) 1 - Minimal 2- Stressed 3 - Crisis 4 - Emergency 5- Famine Areas not analysed Evidence Level ** Medium#16IPC Integrated Food Security Phase Classification Evidence and Standards for Better Food Security and Nutrition Decisions COMPARISON WITH PREVIOUS IPC ACUTE FOOD INSECURITY ANALYSES Current IPC AFI Analyses (March - June 2021) and (October 2021 - March 35 2022) 30 30 30 30 30 30 30 25 25 25 25 25 25 25 20 20 20 20 20 15 100 10 сл 5 сл 5 5 5 5 5 5 0 5 сл Mar-21 Oct-21 Mar-21 Oct-21 Mar-21 Chagai Kech Oct-21 Mar-21 Oct-21 Oct-21 Mar-21 Kharan Nushki Ph 3 Ph 4 Panjgur Current IPC AFI Analyses (1 January - 31 May 2020) and (1 October 2021 - 30 April 2022) 50 40 35 35 30 25 25 25 25 30 25 30 25 25 25 20 20 20 20 20 20 5 15 10 5 15 5 15 15 15 10 5 15 15 15 15 10 10 10 5 Mar-21 Oct-21 2020 2021 2020 2021 Washuk Bajaur Khyber Current IPC AFI Analyses (March - June 2021) and (October 2021 - March 2022) 20 25 15 20 25 30 30 30 25 25 25 20 20 20 20 20 15 20 25 00000000 5 Mar-21 Badin 10 5 5 5 5 Oct-21 Mar-21 Oct-21 Mar-21 10 10 5 5 5 Oct-21 Mar-21 Oct-21 Mar-21 Tharparkar Mirpur Khas Sanghar E Ph 3 n Ph 4E Ph3 & 4 Oct-21 Umerkot 2020 2021 2020 2021 2020 2021 2020 2021 2020 2021 Kurram Mohmand North Waziristan LPh3 LPh4 Ph3&4 Orakzai South Waziristan • Varied trend of food insecurity in 18 districts also covered in previous IPC analyses Context of October analysis, particularly in Sindh and Balochistan was also different compared to previous IPC analyses Acute food insecurity has: Increased in Panjgur and Washuk, Mohmand, North Waziristan and South Waziristan Reduced in Kech, Nushki, Orakzai, Badin, Mirpur Khas and Umerkot No change in other 7 districts (Chagai, Kharan, Bajaur, Khyber, Kurram, Sanghar and Tharparkar) ➤ Also changes in proportion of population in IPC phase 3 and 4#17IPC Integrated Food Security Phase Classification Evidence and Standards for Better Food Security and Nutrition Decisions RESULTS OF IPC ACUTE FOOD INSECURITY ANALYSIS FOR DROUGHT AFFECTED DISTRICTS#18IPC Integrated Food Security Phase Classification Evidence and Standards for Better Food Security and Nutrition Decisions IPC ACUTE FOOD INSECURITY ANALYSIS MAP WITH DROUGHT AFFECTED DISTRICTS OVERLAID IPC ACUTE FOOD INSECURITY ANALYSIS Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (OCTOBER 2021) IPC IRAN (ISLAMIC REPUBLIC OF CHAGAI KECH GWADAR WASHUK PANJGUR AFGHANISTAN CHITRAL GHIZER Integrated Food Security Phase Classification Evidence and Standards for Better Food Security and Nutrition Decisions HUNZA NAGAR GILGIT KHYBER PAKHTUNKHWA DIAMIR UPPER DIR KOHISTAN GILGIT BALTISTAN (PAKISTAN ADMINISTERED SIDE OF L.O.C) SWAT LOWER DIR BAJAUR BATAGRAM ASTORE NEELUM GHANCHE SKARDU MANSEHRA TOR KHYBER SWABI NOWSHERA HARIPUR KURRAM ORAKZAI FR KOHAT HANGU KOHAT MOHMAND MARDAN, AGENCY GHAR MUZAFFARABAD BUNER HATTIAN BALA P. AK POONCH ISLAMABAD SUDHNOTI KOTLI ATTOCK RAWALPINDI NORTH BANNU WAZIRISTAN BANNU SOUTH TANK MARWAT WAZIRISTAN TANK FR KARAK CHAKWAL JHELUM MIANWALI MIRPUR BHIMBER GUJRAT FR LAKKI KHUSHAB MANDI BAHAUDDIN SIALKOT NAROWAL SARGODHA GUJRANWALA D. I. KHAN FR D.I.KHAN BHAKKAR KILLA SAIFULLAH ZHOB SHERANI MUSAKHEL NUSHKI KILLA ABDULLAH PISHIN QUE SUETTA MASTUNG ZIARAT HARNAI LORALAI BARKHAN KOHLU KACHHI LEHRI KALAT DERA BUGTI KHARAN NASIRABAD JHAL MAGSI SOHBATPUR JACOBABAD KASHMOR BALOCHISTAN SHIKARPUR AWARAN QAMBAR KHUZDAR SHAHDADKOT GHOTKI LARKANA SUKKUR USHAHRO DADU FEROZE KHAIRPUR, SINDH, SHAHEED BENAZIRABAD SANGHAR MATIARI LASBELA JAMSHORO TANDO ARABIAN SEA KARACHI THATTA▼ PUNJAB HAFIZABAD CHINIOT SHEIKHUPURA NANKANA SAHIB LAHORE FAISALABAD JHANG LAYYAH KASUR TOBA TEK SINGH OKARA SAHIWALA KHANEWAL PAKPATTAN DERA MUZAFFARGARH GHAZI KHAN RAJANPUR www RAHIM YAR KHAN TANDO ALLAHYAR UMER KOT MIRPUR MUHAMMAD KHAS KHAN BADIN THARPARKAR THATTA SUJAWAL VEHARI MULTAN BAHAWALNAGAR LODHRAN BAHAWALPUR INDIA CHINA Drought affected districts, June 2021 (Source: Pakistan Meteorological Department) INDIAN ADMINISTERED SIDE OF L.O.C Sindh Severe drought Badin, Mirpur Khas, Moderate drought Dadu, Khairpur, Key For The Map IPC Acute Food Insecurity Phase Classification 1- Minimal 2- Stressed 3- Crisis 4- Emergency 5- Famine Areas not analyzed Evidence Level ** Medium Drought affected districts in Sindh and Balochistan Moderate Severe Sanghar, Sujawal, Tharparkar, Thatta, Umerkot Balochistan Chagai, Gawadar, Kech, Larkana, Karachi, Naushehro Feroz, Shaheed Benazirabad, Sukkur Harnai, Mastung, Kharan, Panjgur, Washuk Nushki, Pishin, Kalat, Quetta#19IPC Integrated Food Security Phase Classification Evidence and Standards for Better Food Security and Nutrition Decisions ESTIMATED FOOD INSECURE POPULATION IN DROUGHT AFFECTED DISTRICTS • Out of 26 drought affected districts notified by PMD in June, 2021, this IPC analysis covers 15 districts (8 out of 9 in Sindh and 7 out of 9 in Balochistan). • Around 2.74 million people (23% of the rural population) are estimated to be in IPC Phase 3 (Crisis) and 4 (Emergency) of which 2.02 million are in Phase 3 (Crisis) and 0.72 million are Phase 4 (Emergency) in the current period (October 2021-March 2022) in the 15 drought affected districts focused in this IPC analysis. • 2.16 million people in 8 drought notified districts in Sindh (Badin, Dadu, Mirpur Khas, Sanghar, Sujawal, Tharparkar, Thatta, and Umerkot) and 0.59 million people in 7 notified districts in Balochistan (Chagai, Kech, Kharan, Nushki, Panjgur, Pishin, and Washuk) are in IPC Phase 3 and Phase 4. • 3 districts are classified in IPC Phase 2 (Stressed) and remaining 12 districts are classified in IPC Phase 3 (Crisis). • Gradual improvement in drought conditions since June 2021 due to multiple spells of rainfall, particularly in Sindh. In November 2021, only 5 districts of Balochistan (Chagai, Kech, Kharan, Panjgur and Washuk) were under moderate while 3 (Awaran, Kalat and Quetta) under mild drought conditions, as per PMD. • In Sindh, due to the persistent rains in previous months, drought conditions have become normal.#20IPC Integrated Food Security Phase Classification Evidence and Standards for Better Food Security and Nutrition Decisions KEY DRIVERS OF ACUTE FOOD INSECURITY General and food inflation (Rising food prices) • Loss of employment/income related to COVID-19 pandemic • Drought (Sindh and Balochistan) Livestock diseases (Sindh and Balochistan) • Inadequate rainfall (KP-NMDs) • Conflict/insecurity (KP-NMDs)#21IPC Integrated Food Security Phase Classification Evidence and Standards for Better Food Security and Nutrition Decisions Pre-existing high incidence of poverty and malnutrition 1. Population in these districts have experienced multiple shocks (drought or inadequate rainfall, covid-19 related reduction in income, high food prices, livestock diseases etc 2. Multiple shocks adversely affected the livelihoods/income of the rural population in these districts KEY FINDINGS 6. Rising food prices (inflation) would adversely impact on rural households. 7. Poor/borderline levels of food consumption 11. Markets are fully functional but long distance to access food markets 12. Households have accumulated high debts to meet their food and essential non-food needs 3. Households have high reliance on agriculture (livestock) based livelihood sources 8. High food insecurity based on FIES 13. Poor access to improved sanitation 4. Limited purchasing power, low levels of cereals production and livestock losses contributed to poor food consumption 5. Subsequent effects on livelihoods and food security situation 9. Households engaged in medium/high level food based coping strategies to meet their food needs 10. Households also adopted livelihood based crisis and emergency coping strategies 14. Food access, affordability and utilization are major issues#22IPC Integrated Food Security Phase Classification Evidence and Standards for Better Food Security and Nutrition Decisions KEY RECOMMENDATIONS FOR RESPONSE IPC analysis indicates a need for immediate emergency response actions to help save lives and livelihoods of people in Emergency (IPC Phase 4) and Crisis (IPC Phase 3). Improve access to food through appropriate modalities such as food or cash and voucher assistance to reduce the food consumption gaps and to protect asset depletion for the populations classified in Emergency (IPC Phase 4) and Crisis (IPC Phase 3). Timely provision of quality seeds for high-yielding crops and vegetables, and toolkits, especially to subsistence level farmers. In drought prone areas drought resilient crop varieties need to be introduced to ensure sufficient production Training on climate-smart crop and fodder production, including guidance on kitchen gardening. Scale up livestock protection and management interventions such as vaccination and deworming campaigns to prevent diseases, and access to fodder, multi-nutritional feed and pastures can help in preventing distress sale. Construction and rehabilitation of water infrastructure for agriculture and livestock for better conservation and management. Resilient water infrastructure can help in reducing the impact of recurring floods and droughts. Support livelihood diversification activities (including training on 'online business opportunities and management') for local communities to increase income-generation and employment opportunities Inclusion of women in economic growth activities (agriculture and non-agriculture) to improve their livelihoods. Capacity building of communities on processing and preservation of the seasonal produce to enable them to earn higher income from processed fruits and vegetables and meet food requirements in the lean seasons.#23IPC Integrated Food Security Phase Classification Evidence and Standards for Better Food Security and Nutrition Decisions RISK FACTORS TO MONITOR Prices of essential food items- The increasing prices of essential food and non-food items is a major risk to the food security of households which is also expected to erode their purchasing power that needs to be monitored. Afghan situation- The current situation in Afghanistan can stimulate cross border displacement. The displacement is expected to put enormous pressure on the local market structures, labour market, and natural resources that can negatively affect the food security dimensions. Climatic conditions (La Nina and drought) -the climatic conditions are crucial to monitor, which may impact on agricultural production and livelihoods, and may also cause outbreak of livestock diseases. Livestock diseases- Livestock diseases such as Foot and Mouth Disease (FMD), Peste des Petits Ruminates (PPR), and Hemorrhagic septicemia (HS) outbreak is likely to increase due to seasonal change. Border fencing & closure- The livelihood opportunities have reduced for those engaged in informal trade due to closure of border with Afghanistan and Iran. The border fencing has resulted in the stoppage of informal trade and access to markets at both sides of the border. The community at the border now has to travel long distances to reach the market which increased their food cost and adversely affects their livelihoods. This factor needs to be monitored in the projected phase. Loss of employment- Due to economic instability, exchange rate, fuel prices and cost of production are increasing which may cause loss of employment and may affect livelihoods. The COVID-19 situation - Although the incidence rate has declined significantly in Pakistan but the situation still needs to be monitored because of surge in the cases globally due to new variants.#24IPC Integrated Food Security Phase Classification Evidence and Standards for Better Food Security and Nutrition Decisions IPC ACUTE FOOD INSECURITY ANALYSIS PARTNERS Government Ministries/Departments INGOS/NGOS/UN Organizations • Ministry of National Food Security & Research • WHH • Ministry of Planning, Development & Special Initiatives • Concern Worldwide . Ministry of National Health Services, Regulations and Coordination ACF • CARE . Pakistan Agriculture Research Council • SIF • National Disaster Management Authority (NDMA) • ACTED • Provincial Disaster Management Authority (PDMA), Sindh, Balochistan and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa • HANDS • Provincial Bureaus of Statistics, Sindh and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa Islamic Relief • . ⚫ Agriculture Department, Sindh, Balochistan and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa BRSP • FRD • Livestock Department, Sindh, Balochistan and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa • FRDP • TKF • UN Agencies (FAO, WFP, UNICEF) • Technical Support by IPC Global Support Unit (GSU) Food and Agriculture Organization of the ACTION AGAINST United Nations HUNGER FEWS NET FOOD SECURITY CLUSTER Global NUTRITION CLUSTER Oxfam (SC) SICA unicef WFP World Food CONCERN care Save the Children Centroamericana for every child Programme worldwide HANDS wp.org TRDP هيندر SECOURS ISLAMIQUE FRANCE ACTED#25LA NIÑA CONDITIONS AND SEASONAL AGRO-CLIMATE OUTLOOK FOR PAKISTAN#26. • LA NIÑA CONDITIONS Pakistan is one of the countries identified as at high risk of humanitarian impact from La Niña as per the latest advisory/alert for November 2021 - March 2022. In case of Pakistan, drier than normal conditions are likely to occur between November 2021 and January 2022 in Southwest of Pakistan. Close monitoring of regional and national level forecasts, and consideration of anticipatory or early actions is recommended. Drought Monitor November, 2021 06N PON SGB Extreme Severe Moderate Mild Drought Drought Drought Drought Normal ©NDMC, Pakistan Meteorological Department Slightly Moderately Severe Extreme Wet Wet Wet Wet 26#27Balochistan SEASONAL AGRO-CLIMATE OUTLOOK FOR DECEMBER 2021-MAY 2022 ⚫ Central Balochistan is expected to receive 2 to 3 spells of light to moderate rainfall during the start of March and April. • Rains in the end of March and start of April may have a negative impact on the crop growth as they will be in their maturity stages. • North-Eastern Balochistan may receive 2-3 spells of light to moderate (with few heavy downpours in start of March and April) rainfall starting from the 3rd decade of February till the end of the period. • Wheat crop in this area may benefit from the anticipated precipitation during this time period. However, the rain during the maturity stages may affect the crop. Sindh Upper Sindh is expected to receive few spells of light to moderate rainfall during 1st & last decade of February, first week & mid of March, 1st decade of April, 1st & 2nd decade of May. • Wheat is the major crop in the area which is in its vegetative stages and these rains would be beneficial for the crops. • Lower Sindh may receive 3-4 spells of light to moderate rainfall mainly during 1st & last decade of February, first week & mid of March, 1st decade of April, 1st & 2nd decade of May. • Rabi crops like wheat, sugarcane etc. in this area are well ahead in comparison to the rest of the country. Therefore, these rains may affect the harvesting activities of the standing crops in the region.#28SEASONAL AGRO-CLIMATE OUTLOOK FOR DECEMBER 2021-MAY 2022 Khyber Pakhtunkhwa Upper Khyber Pakhtunkhwa is expected to receive 2-3 spells of light to moderate rainfalls during March and 1st decade of May. During this period, few spells of light rainfall is also anticipated. The expected rains would be beneficial till March as the crop is in vegetative and reproductive stages. While the wheat crop is maturing in April and May, rainfall may have an impact on the crop's eventual output. • Lower Khyber Pakhtunkhwa is expected to receive 3 major events of light to moderate (with spells of heavy downpour during the end of March and start of April) rainfall from March till May. Punjab The Potohar Region may receive several light to moderate rainfall spells (with few heavy downpours during 1st decade of March and 3rd decade of April) during the period. During February, wheat in the region is generally in reproductive stages, the rain will benefit it while in April, crop is in grain formation/final stages, accordingly cloudiness or rain conditions may cause bad impacts on the crop in terms of dry matter production. Central Punjab would receive 3-4 spells of light to moderate (with few spells of light downpour) rainfall from the end of February till the end of May. The rainfall during the early stages of the crop is helpful; however rainfall during the month of May, when the crop reaches its maturity, may affect the final yield of the crop. • Southern Punjab would receive 4-5 mild rainfall episodes (with a few moderate spells) within the stated time, according to the general trend. Rainfall during the season may assist the crop by increasing soil moisture availability during the reproductive stages of the wheat crop.#29PRECIPITATION FORECAST (IRI-MODEL) FOR DECEMBER 2021-APRIL-2022 IRI Multi-Model Probability Forecast for Precipitation for December-January-February 2022, Issued November 2021 80°N <= White indicates Climatological odds indicates dry season (no forecast) Precipitation Forecast (IRI-Model) for December 2021-April-2022 Global Circulation Models indicate week La-Niña conditions in the equatorial Pacific Ocean and neutral Indian Ocean Dipole (IOD) during December-January-February. IRI model suggests probability of: •Below normal rainfall in some northern and western districts of Balochistan, southern districts of KP and eastern districts of Punjab during December 2021-February 2022. •Above normal rainfall in most parts of Sindh, whereas eastern part of Punjab will receive below normal rainfall during January-March 2022. •Below normal rainfall in Balochistan districts bordering with Afghanistan during February-April. 70'N 60°N 50'N 40°N 30°N 20'N 10°N •The deficiency in rainfall will cause water stress for Rabi (winter season) crops, particularly in rain-fed areas. •Prolong smoggy and foggy conditions in plain and urban areas. •Enhanced concentration of urban pollution during dry winter months. 10'S 50°E 60°E 70'E 80°E 90'E 100°E 110°E 120°E 130°E 140°E 150°E Probability (%) of Most Likely Category Below Normal Normal Above Normal 160*E 170*E 40 45 50 60 70+ 40+ 40 45 50 60 70+ 29#3080°N- 70°N 60°N 50°N 40 N- 30'N- 20 N- 10'N- 0 10'S PRECIPITATION FORECAST (IRI-MODEL) FOR JANUARY 2021-APRIL-2022 IRI Multi-Model Probability Forecast for Precipitation for January-February-March 2022, Issued November 2021 White indicates Climatological odds indicates dry season (no forecast) 80°N- IRI Multi-Model Probability Forecast for Precipitation for February-March-April 2022, Issued November 2021 White indicates Climatological odds indicates dry season (no forecast) 70°N 60°N- 50°N 40°N - 30°N 20°N 10°N 0° 10'S 50°E 60°E 70°E 80°E 90°E 100°E 110°E 120°E 130°E 140°E 150°E 160°E 170'E 50°E 60°E 70°E 80°E 90°E 100°E 110°E 120°E 130°E 140°E 150°E 160°E 170°E Below Normal Probability (%) of Most Likely Category Normal Above Normal Probability (%) of Most Likely Category Below Normal Normal Above Normal 40 45 50 60 70+ 40+ 40 45 50 60 70+ 40 45 50 60 70+ 40+ 40 45 50 60 70+ 30#31IPC Integrated Food Security Phase Classification Evidence and Standards for Better Food Security and Nutrition Decisions IPC ACUTE FOOD INSECURITY ANALYSIS MAP WITH DROUGHT AFFECTED DISTRICTS OVERLAID Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations IRAN (ISLAMIC REPUBLIC OF IPC ACUTE FOOD INSECURITY ANALYSIS CHAGAI KECH GWADAR WASHUK PANJGUR (OCTOBER 2021) AFGHANISTAN IPC CHITRAL GHIZER Integrated Food Security Phase Classification Evidence and Standards for Better Food Security and Nutrition Decisions HUNZA NAGAR GILGIT GILGIT BALTISTAN (PAKISTAN ADMINISTERED SIDE OF L.O.C) KHYBER PAKHTUNKHWA DIAMIR UPPER DIR KOHISTAN SWAT LOWER DIR BAJAUR BATAGRAM MANSEHRA TOR ASTORE NEELUM GHANCHE SKARDU KHYBER SWABI NOWSHERA HARIPUR KURRAM ORAKZAI FR KOHAT HANGU KOHAT MOHMAND MARDAN, AGENCY GHAR MUZAFFARABAD BUNER HATTIAN BALA P. AK POONCH ISLAMABAD SUDHNOTI KOTLI ATTOCK RAWALPINDI NORTH BANNU WAZIRISTAN BANNU SOUTH TANK MARWAT WAZIRISTAN TANK FR KARAK CHAKWAL JHELUM MIANWALI MIRPUR BHIMBER GUJRAT FR LAKKI KHUSHAB MANDI BAHAUDDIN SIALKOT NAROWAL SARGODHA GUJRANWALA D. I. KHAN FR D.I.KHAN BHAKKAR KILLA SAIFULLAH ZHOB SHERANI MUSAKHEL NUSHKI KILLA ABDULLAH PISHIN QUE SUETTA MASTUNG ZIARAT HARNAI LORALAI BARKHAN KOHLU KACHHI LEHRI DERA BUGTI KALAT KHARAN NASIRABAD JHAL MAGSI SOHBATPUR JACOBABAD BALOCHISTAN SHIKARPUR AWARAN KASHMOR QAMBAR KHUZDAR SHAHDADKOT GHOTKI LARKANA SUKKUR USHAHRO DADU FEROZE KHAIRPUR, SINDH, SHAHEED BENAZIRABAD SANGHAR MATIARI LASBELA JAMSHORO TANDO ARABIAN SEA KARACHI THATTA▼ PUNJAB HAFIZABAD CHINIOT SHEIKHUPURA NANKANA SAHIB LAHORE FAISALABAD JHANG LAYYAH KASUR TOBA TEK SINGH OKARA SAHIWALA KHANEWAL PAKPATTAN DERA MUZAFFARGARH GHAZI KHAN RAJANPUR www RAHIM YAR KHAN TANDO ALLAHYAR UMER KOT MIRPUR MUHAMMAD KHAS KHAN BADIN THARPARKAR THATTA SUJAWAL VEHARI MULTAN BAHAWALNAGAR LODHRAN BAHAWALPUR INDIA CHINA INDIAN ADMINISTERED SIDE OF L.O.C Key For The Map IPC Acute Food Insecurity Phase Classification 1- Minimal 2- Stressed 3- Crisis 4- Emergency 5- Famine Areas not analyzed Evidence Level ** Medium Drought affected districts in Sindh and Balochistan Moderate Severe As per PMD in November 2021, in Balochistan, 5 districts (Chagai, Kech, Kharan, Panjgur and Washuk) were under moderate while 3 districts (Awaran, Kalat and Quetta) are under mild drought conditions, In Sindh, due to the persistent rains in previous months, drought conditions have become normal.#32KEY MESSAGES • As per latest alert/advisory, La Niña conditions are likely to prevail till January 2022 in south western parts of Pakistan, which mainly include areas of Sindh and Balochistan Below normal rainfall is expected in some northern and western districts of Balochistan, southern districts of KP and eastern districts of Punjab during December 2021-February 2022 as per IRI model based forecasts • If La Niña conditions continue for long, it would adversely affect the crop yield and production of staple crop (wheat) in the affected areas Around 3.2 million people (in IPC Phase 3 and above) in Sindh and Balochistan would be more vulnerable by the prolonged La Niña conditions. Around 4.66 million people (in IPC Phase 3 and above) would be vulnerable in case La Niña conditions also spread to Khyber Pakhtunkhwa in addition to Sindh and Balochistan • Situation needs to be monitored regularly, particularly with updated information on La Niña conditions during first quarter of 2022#33PROPOSED RECOMMENDED ACTIONS FOR FURTHER DISCUSSION • Conduct regular monitoring of drought conditions in Balochistan. Food Security sector (WFP, FAO) normally conducts joint monitoring and analysis with the local governments on the effect of ENSO conditions on crops, locust breeding etc. The global clusters/sectors leads are requested to ask their counterparts in countries to continue this practice and report to the HCT. • Include NDMA, PDMA and Met department in discussion to align understanding of the pending risk and expected La Niña impacts for Pakistan. • Promote the centrality of protection in planning and delivering the response to the drought affected populations. Strengthen communication with communities' mechanisms to raise awareness of the affected people about the impact of the upcoming risk. Support advocacy and outreach for increased financial resources availability for anticipatory action in dry condition risk areas of Pakistan. • Ensure full participation of UN agencies and NGOs through the HCT to develop a preparedness and response plan in Q1 2022 if La Niña conditions continue.