#1COSTCO WHOLESALE ENTRANCE An Introduction to the Economy of Alaska Gunnar Knapp Professor of Economics Institute of Social and Economic Research University of Alaska Anchorage February 2012 STAL SH SMA#2There are important economic differences between different regions of Alaska. Alaska is a very large state. It is useful to think of Alaska in terms of six major regions: Southeast, Southcentral, Interior, Arctic, Northwest, and Southwest. These regions differ significantly with respect to their climate and natural resources—which contribute to significant differences in their economies. One of the main things that different regions of Alaska have in common economically—whether they are remote busy villages or Anchorage-is their high level of dependence on State and federal spending. Barrow a CHUKCHI SEA Northwest KOTZEBUE SOUND Kotzebue Northwest Nome Region NORTON SOUND Arctic Brooks Rang River Region River Koyuku Interior Yukon BEAUFORT SEA dhoe Bay Fairba Interior River Tanana Copper Southwest Region Southcentral Region Anchorage M A Southwest BAY Southcentral Arctic Circle- Southeast 2#3Alaska's geography creates and constrains opportunities for Alaska's economy. Alaska's geography-its location, climate, topography, and resources-have driven Alaska's economy in the past and define and constrain its opportunities for the future. Alaska has abundant natural resources-oil, minerals, forests, fish. In the twentieth and twenty-first centuries, Alaska's strategic location has contributed to the role of the military and more recently the international air cargo industry. Another Alaska natural resource--its natural beauty-represents an increasingly important natural resource. But Alaska's remoteness from major markets, cold climate, mountainous topography, and permafrost make Alaska a costly place to extract resources compared with other parts of the world. In areas with permafrost, buildings like this facility at Prudhoe Bay need to be built on pilings to keep the permafrost underneath them from melting.#4Alaska resource development-and who benefits from it-is driven by land ownership and the priorities of land owners. Almost all land in Alaska is owned by the federal government, the state government, or Native corporations. Different federal and state lands are managed by different agencies with different priorities ranging from preserving lands as wilderness to developing resources such as oil, timber and minerals. About 40% of Alaska is in federal conservation systems where resource development is somewhat restricted. About 15% is in "wilderness" where all resource development is restricted. Except on Native lands, almost any kind of resource development in Alaska involves dealing with federal or state landowners. Native corporations also vary in their priorities for resource development. Alaska Land Ownership Federal government 59% State government 28% Native corporations* Other owners 12% 1% *Native corporations were created by the Alaska Native Claims Settlement Act of 1971. The shareholders of these corporations are Alaska Natives. Chukchi Sea heral pattern of lands the a Native corporations own. does not include lands the ons have selected but the et approved for transfer. Bering Sea Deauront Sea Outer Aleutian Islands 9 Federal lands (white) State lands (grey) Is eci he Native lands (blue) vhi bro#5Alaska's population is about 710,000. Alaska ranks 47th among U.S. States in population. Alaska's population is about 1/5 of Oregon's, 1/10 of Washington's, and 1/50 of California's. Alaska's population is about the same as that of the Akron, Ohio metropolitan area. Alaska's population compared with other states Alaska's population compared with selected metropolitan areas California 37 million New York, NY 19 million Washington 6.7 million Seattle, WA Oregon 3.8 million Akron, OH 3.4 million 703 thousand Alaska 710 thousand Maine 1.3 million Montana 989 thousand Alaska's population compared with selected countries Alaska 710 thousand Finland 5.2 million Vermont 626 thousand Norway 4.7 million Wyoming 564 thousand Alaska 710 thousand Source: Statistical Abstract of the United States, 2012. Data are estimated populations for 2010. Iceland 309 thousand LO#6800,000 700,000 600,000 Alaska's population has grown dramatically since World War II. Alaska's population grew rapidly from about 100,000 just after WWII to about 225,000 at Statehood in 1959, about 550,000 in 1986 and about 710,000 today. Growth has been slower since the mid-1990s. Total Alaska Population 551,000 at peak of state spending boom in 1986 500,000 418,000 at completion of the pipeline in 1977 400,000 300,000 200,000 100,000 103,000 one year after WWII in 1946 1945 1950 224,000 at Statehood in 1959 1975 1980 1985 Source: Alaska Department of Labor and Workforce Development, Research & Analysis, Demographics Unit. 2010 710,000 in 2010 0#7-10,000 40,000 Natural increase and migration drive changes in Alaska's population. Alaska population change is the combined result of natural increase (births minus deaths) and net migration (people moving in minus people moving out.) Alaska's rapid population growth during the 1970s and early 1980s was driven by net in-migration: people moving to Alaska. The history of booms and busts in Alaska's economy can be seen by periods of net in-migration and periods of net- outmigration. Since the 1990s most of the growth in Alaska's population has been due to natural increase. Cold-war 30,000 construction and military build-up 20,000 10,000 1945 1950 1955 Alaska Population Natural Growth and Net Migration, 1946-2008 1975 -20,000 End of pipeline boom Source: Alaska Department of Labor and Workforce Analysis, Research & Analysis, Demographics Unit. -30,000 1980 Pipeline construction, 1974-77 1985 1990 State spending boom, early 1980s Severe 9661 2000 2005 national recession, 2009 & 2010 2010 Alaska recession after oil prices crashed in 1986 7#8There is no single or best way to measure or describe Alaska's economy. Two frequently-used measures are: . Employment: How many people are employed. Employment in Alaska is highly seasonal (many more people are employed in the summer than in the winter), so employment numbers are typically reported as annual average employment. Note that the state's official employment data don't count several important kinds of work, including people who are self-employed, commercial fishermen (who are technically paid a share of their boat's catch and are considered self-employed), and people engaged in unpaid work at home (cooking, cleaning, child care, gardening, mowing the lawn) or in subsistence hunting and fishing. Gross State Product (GSP): The estimated value of all goods and services produced in Alaska by the market sector of the economy.* The market sector of the economy is the part in which people work for pay. So Gross State Product (GSP) includes the value of what people produce in their paid work, but it excludes the value of unpaid work and subsistence hunting and fishing. *Technically, Gross State Product (GSP) is calculated as the total value of goods and services produced in Alaska, minus the cost of inputs purchased from outside Alaska.#9Total Alaska wage and salary employment is about 350,000. Total wage and salary employment has more than tripled since statehood, when employment was less than 100,000. There have been two periods when employment grew very rapidly: during the construction of the Trans-Alaska Pipeline (1974-77) and during the state spending boom of the early 1980s. Each of these periods was followed by a recession during which employment declined. Alaska employment growth slowed to almost zero after the national recession began in 2008. About 50,000 people are self-employed in Alaska (working for themselves in their own businesses). This includes commercial fishermen, who are not counted in regular wage and salary employment data. Estimated Total Alaska Employment 500,000 450,000 Pipeline construction boom, 400,000 1974-77 State spending 1980s boom, early 350,000 300,000 1 250,000 200,000 150,000 Alaska recession 100,000 50,000 End of pipeline boom after oil prices crashed in 1986 0 Self- Employment (including Fishing) Wage and Salary Employment Global financial crisis & national recession Note: Estimates are for average annual employment; summer seasonal employment is higher. Estimates include both full- time and part-time employment. Source: Bureau of Economic Analysis Estimates#10Employment in Alaska's biggest industries is measured in the tens of thousands of jobs. A quick indication of how "big" or significant an industry or project is for the Alaska economy is to look at how many people it employs. Job numbers in the tens of thousands are very big. Job numbers in the thousands are big. Job numbers in the hundreds are not very significant relative to the total economy. Alaska Employment* in 2007: Relative Magnitudes Total Alaska employment* Local government 348,000 38,400 Retail trade 36,000 Fishing 7,300 Seafood processing 9,200 Air transportation 6,300 Mining employment (excl. oil & gas) 2,000 Wood products manufacturing 400 *Note: Total includes estimated uniformed military and commercial fishing employment. Data are "annual average" employment; seasonal employment may be much higher in industries such as fish processing. 10#11Alaska's Gross State Product* was about $48 billion in 2008. A quick indicator of how "big" or significant a dollar value is for the Alaska economy is to compare it with the size of total Gross State Product. Dollar values in the billions or hundreds of millions are “big." Dollar values in the tens of millions or millions are much less significant relative to the total economy. The Scale of Alaska's Economy in Dollars: Some Relative Magnitudes Alaska Gross State Product (GSP) 2008 $47.9 billion Market Value of Alaska Permanent Fund 1/1/10 $35.2 billion Total Alaska employee compensation 2007 $20.2 billion Value of Alaska oil production FY09 $15.8 billion Total federal spending in Alaska FY08 $9.4 billion A million is NOT the same as a billion!!! A billion is 1000 million! 1,000,000 = 1 million 1,000,000,000 = 1 billion *Gross State Product (GSP) is the total value of goods and services produced in Alaska, minus the cost of inputs purchased from outside Alaska. 11#1250,000 45,000 40,000 Alaska Employment: Oil Industry & Retail Trade 1 Oil industry Retail trade 35,000 30,000 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 0 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 Source: BEA employment data millions of current $ 14,000 12,000 10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 2,000 Alaska Gross State Product: Oil Industry & Retail Trade Oil industry Retail trade The relative importance of different industries to Alaska's economy depends on how you measure it. Different measures give different pictures of the structure of Alaska's economy and the relative importance of different industries. These two graphs show employment and Gross State Product in two important Alaska industries: the oil industry and the retail trade industry (stores). Look at the dramatic difference! The retail trade industry employs far more people than the oil industry. But the oil industry creates much more value! Also, note how the value created by the oil industry increased dramatically from 2001 to 2007. We weren't producing more oil (production was declining!) But oil prices were increasing-so the value of production was increasing. 0 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 Source: BEA GSP data 2005 2006 2007 12#13Alaska's economy may be divided into basic and support industries. Basic and support industries are driven by different factors and grow or decline for different reasons. Basic industries bring money into Alaska. Oil and seafood are basic industries because they sell products to markets outside Alaska. Tourism is a basic industry because tourists spend money in Alaska. The federal government is a basic industry because the federal government spends money in Alaska. Basic industries are affected by factors such as resource abundance, world market conditions, competition from other regions, federal spending, and federal and state resource management policies. Support industries depend on spending of Alaska businesses and residents. Retail trade, services, and local government are support industries. Support industries are driven by basic sector income, and also by the extent to which Alaskans spend money in Alaska rather than Outside. Economists say the basic income is "multiplied" as it is re- spent within the Alaska economy, generating support income. As the Alaska economy grows, the share of money which is spent in Alaska grows, causing the support sector to grow. There are two ways the Alaska economy can grow: by growing basic industries, or by increasing the "multiplier" so that support industries grow. Much of Alaska's growth over the past four decades has been in support industries, and has come from increasing the multiplier. 13#14500 450 400 350 300 250 200 150 100 Employment (thousands of jobs) 0 1961 50 1964 1967 1970 1973 1976 1979 1982 Source: BEA Employment Estimates by SIC Code Estimated Alaska Employment, 1961-2001 Since statehood, most of Alaska's growth has been in support industries -particularly services. Since Alaska became a state in 1959, total employment in "traditional basic industries" (federal government, fishing, oil and gas, mining, & forest products) has changed very little. Almost all employment growth has been in "support industries"-particularly state and local government, trade and services. Part of the growth has come from "new basic industries"-particularly tourism and air cargo-which are difficult to separate from support industries such as services and transportation. Two employment graphs are shown below because the federal government changed its way of classifying industries starting in 2001 (from the "SIC" method to the "NAICS" method). It's difficult to compare the SIC data available for the period 1961-2001 with the NAICS data available for years after 1990. For this class, we'll only use the newer NAICS data. 1985 1988 1991 1994 1997 2000 Estimated Alaska Employment, 1990-2008 500 450 Other Other Services Trade Transportation I State and Local Government Employment (thousands of jobs) 400 Services 350 300 Trade 250 Transportation 200 150 100 Traditional Basic 50 State and Local Government Traditional Basic 0 1990 1992 1994 1996 Source: BEA Employment Estimates by NAICS Code#15Federal spending is extremely important to Alaska's economy. The federal government spent more than $12 billion in Alaska in FY2010. Alaska ranks first among U.S. states in federal expenditures per capita. Federal spending supports not just the military and federal civilian agencies, but also many other industries such as construction and health care. UAA Professor of Economics Scott Goldsmith has estimated that about 1/3 of Alaska jobs depend―directly or indirectly--on federal spending. $ millions 14000 12000 10000 8000 6000 Federal Spending in Alaska: 1981-2010 Note: The graph shows data reported by the Bureau of the Census. However, the data for 2009 and 2010 are likely significantly overestimated due to errors which the Bureau of the Census has acknowledged but not yet corrected. Examples of federal spending in Alaska in 2008 ($ million) Military procurement contracts Salaries and wages Medical assistance program Highway planning and construction Airport improvement program Indian housing block grants Procurement Direct Payments to Individuals and Others Wages and Salaries 1989 2206 693 383 186 80 Former Alaska Senator Ted Stevens used his political skill and power as one of the most senior members of the Senate to greatly increase federal spending in Alaska. Future federal spending will probably decline because Alaska's congressional delegation no long has as much power and there a lot of political pressure to cut total federal spending. 4000 2000 0 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 1993 1995 Grants to State and Local Governments 15#16Federal spending in Alaska is likely to level off or decline in the future. Federal spending in Alaska is high for several reasons. The federal government owns and manages a lot of land in Alaska. There are several large military bases, and military spending in Alaska increased sharply after 2002 partly because of the Iraq and Afghanistan wars. And former Alaska Senator Ted Stevens used his political skill and power as one of the most senior members of the Senate to direct a lot of federal spending to Alaska. Future federal spending will probably decline because Alaska's congressional delegation no long has as much power, there a lot of political pressure to cut total federal spending, and military spending is likely to decline as the US pulls out of Iraq and Afghanistan. Because federal government spending plays such a big role in Alaska's economy, a potential leveling off or decline of federal spending is a significant concern. 100% Federal Spending in Alaska, Defense & Non-Defense: 2002-2010 90% 80% 70% 60% 50% 40% 30% 20% 10% 0% Non- Defense Defense Ted Stevens#17The military plays an important role in Alaska's economy. The military has played an very important role in Alaska's history and economy. During World War II hundreds of thousands of troops were sent to Alaska. The army built the Alaska Highway and many other roads, airfields, and military bases, transforming Alaska's transportation infrastructure and economy. At statehood 35% of Alaska jobs were military. Since statehood, the number of military has declined, while the rest of the economy has grown. In 2006, there were about 23,000 active duty military in Alaska-representing about 7% of total jobs. With the deployments of many Alaska-based military units to Iraq and Afghanistan, in recent years Alaskans have become much more aware of the presence of the military in Alaska and their importance to our communities and economy. WWII: A wrecked P-38 in the Aleutians Eielson Air Force Base Military Employment as % of Total Employment 30% 25% 20% 15% 10% 5% Number of Active-Duty Military in Alaska 25% of jobs in 1969 were military 35,000 7% of jobs in 2006 were 30,000 military 25,000 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 Military Employment OS 2020 0% 1975 1977 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 0 17#18Contribution of Individual Resources to Total Alaska Resource Production Value Before Statehood (1868-1958) Fur 5% Fish 63% Copper 7% Gold 25% $40 Billion After Statehood (1959-2002) Mining 5% 84% Oil and Gas 11% Fish (In $2002) $350 Billion* (In $2002) *Excludes value of timber produced, since no data is available. Value of agriculture is a fraction of 1 percent of total resource value. Source: "Blinded by Riches," UA Research Summary No. 3 Alaska's economy has always depended heavily on natural resources. Before Alaska became a state in 1959, the fishing and mining industries-along with government accounted for most of the jobs and income in Alaska, directly or indirectly. The discovery of oil on Alaska's North Slope. in the 1960s drastically changed Alaska's economy. Alaska's oil production is so valuable that it now dominates Alaska's economy. 1868 Value of Alaska Resource Production, 1868-2002 (In 2002 Dollars) 1868-1958: $40 billion Peak Value Gold 1905 Peak Value Copper Peak Value Salmon 1916 1948 1959 1959-2002: $350 billion Peak Value Oil Source: Terrence Cole and Pamela Cravez, "Blinded By Riches," UA Research Summary No. 3 1981 2002 18#19The oil industry is extremely important to Alaska's economy. Along with federal spending, Alaska's economy is driven by the oil industry. Although only only a few thousand people are directly employed by oil companies, many more work in oil- related jobs such oilfield service activities, oilfield construction projects, and pipeline operations. The State of Alaska is extremely dependent on oil revenues, mostly from oil royalties and severance taxes which oil companies pay to the state. Oil accounts for about 85% of the "unrestricted" revenue available to the State for spending for general purposes. Thus the oil industry pays for a very large share of state government and local government employment. UAA Professor of Economics Scott Goldsmith has estimated that about 1/3 of Alaska jobs can be attributed directly or indirectly—to the oil industry. Prudhoe Bay, on Alaska's North Slope, is the largest oil field ever discovered in North America-and a huge industrial complex. 19#200.0 00 2.5 Alaska's oil production is declining. Alaska oil production began with the Cook Inlet oil fields (near Anchorage!) in the 1960s. But it was the North Slope oil fields that made Alaska a major oil producer. North Slope oil production began after the Trans-Alaska Pipeline was completed in 1977, and grew very rapidly to a peak of about 2 million barrels per day in 1988. Production has since fallen by more than two-thirds, to 0.6 million barrels per day in 2011, as oil has been pumped out of the huge Prudhoe Bay and Kuparuk fields. Alaska Oil Production, Historical and Projected 1.5 millions of barrels per day 0.5 1.0 2.0 1959 1962 1965 1968 1971 1974 1977 1980 1983 1986 1989 Historical: 1959-2011 1992 1995 Projected: 2012-21 | North Slope Cook Inlet 20 20#21Alaska's oil production is likely to continue to decline. Production from new, smaller fields that are under development or are under evaluation for potential development is not expected to be enough to offset the continuing rapid decline in currently producing fields. North Slope Historical and Forecasted Oil Production (from the Alaska Department of Revenue's Fall 2011 Revenue Forecast) Millions of barrels per day 1.1 1.0 History Forecast 0.9 0.8 0.7 Under Evaluation 0.6 0.5 0.4 Under Development 0.3 0.2 Currently Producing 0.1 0.0 2001 2003 2005 2007 2009 2011 2013 2015 2017 2019 2021 21#22$/barrel (expressed in 2011 dollars) • • Oil prices are among the most important factors affecting Alaska oil production, state revenues, and the Alaska economy. Oil prices directly affect how much revenue the State gets from the oil industry. Oil prices affect how profitable oil development is for the oil companies, and their willingness to invest in new development. $120 Average Annual Price of Crude Oil (adjusted for inflation) $100 Oil prices are extremely volatile! Here is how oil prices (adjusted for inflation) have changed since North Slope oil production began in 1977: $53/barrel in 1977 $80 $60 $40 $20 $0 60 $104/barrel in 1980 $31/barrel in 1986 $42/barrel in 1990 $20/barrel in 1998 $104/barrel in 2008 1976 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 Source: Average annual price, West Texas Intermediate crude oil, from U.S. Energy Information Administration, www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/international/oil price.html $65/barrel in 2009 $95/barrel in 2011 The State's revenues and economy have been dramatically affected by these oil price changes.#23$/barrel (expressed in 2011 dollars) It's very difficult to predict future oil prices. Historically, people have frequently predicted we have entered a new era of permanently higher oil prices. But historically, oil prices have fluctuated widely, and have been very difficult to predict. In the early 1980s, "real" oil prices (adjusted for inflation) were at record high levels. Many people assumed oil prices would stay high. But oil prices fell to very low levels by 1986, leading to a severe recession in Alaska. The bottom line: Future oil prices are highly $120 $100 $80 $60 $40 $20 $0 40 uncertain. Average Annual Price of Crude Oil (adjusted for inflation) Source: Average annual price, West Texas Intermediate crude oil, from U.S. Energy Information Administration, www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/international/oilprice.html Oil prices are driven by both demand and supply! The sharp drop in oil prices in 2009 was caused by the sharp decline in demand due to a global economic recession. Costs of alternative energy forms, such as natural gas, coal, and nuclear energy, set an upper limit on oil prices over the long-term. 23#2412000 The State of Alaska's oil revenues have fluctuated widely. In the first five years of North Slope oil production (1978-1982) Alaska's oil revenues rose dramatically because both oil prices and oil production rose dramatically. A rapid growth in state spending led to a huge economic boom. Then oil revenues began a long period of decline, as oil prices declined and (after 1988) oil production also declined. The steep drop in state oil revenues in 1987 led to a sharp reduction in state spending and a severe recession in Alaska. Oil revenues fell even more during the late 1990s, leading to major concerns about the future of state revenues and the Alaska economy. State General Fund (Unrestricted) Revenues (adjusted for inflation) 10000 8000 Revenues (millions of 2011 dollars) 4000 2000 0 6000 FY78 FY80 FY82 FY84 FY86 FY88 FY90 I Non-Oil Revenues 1 Oil: Other oil revenues 1 Oil: Production taxes Oil: Royalties → Average Oil Price (ANS West Coast) FY06 FY08 FY10 $0 $20 $40 $60 $80 $100 Oil price ($/barrel) $120 And then everything changed! Oil prices soared and in the mid 2000s the state also increased production tax rates on the oil industry. Suddenly and unexpectedly, Alaska was rich again-with record oil revenues in 2008! Revenues have fallen since then but remain very high. 24#25Projections of future state revenues really are highly uncertain! This graph shows the Department of Revenue's 10-year projections for state revenues for a six-year period-and what actually happened. Note that the projections for the future changed widely from year to year! Note that usually the projections were pretty close to actual revenues for the year the projections are made in (except in FY 2008) but they were usually way off by the second year of the projections. millions of dollars 12000 10000 8000 6000 4000 2000 0 State General Fund (Unrestricted) Revenues: Alaska Department of Revenue 10-Year Projections FY17 FY18 Actual Revenues Fall 2004 Projections Fall 2005 Projections Fall 2006 Projections Fall 2007 Projections Having lots of oil revenue is great-most states would love to have our oil revenue! Bit it does make Fall 2008 Projections it hard to plan for Fall 2009 Projections the future, because the oil revenue varies so widely and is so hard to predict. 25#26The Alaska Department of Revenue is projecting that state revenues will decline gradually in the future. But what will actually happen is highly uncertain! This graph shows the Alaska Department of Revenue's projections for State revenues through FY 2021- as of Fall 2011. They are projecting (guessing) that oil prices will average slightly higher in 2012, causing revenues to increase, but that future revenues will decline as production declines. But the future projections are highly uncertain-because we don't know what will happen to oil prices! 12000 State General Fund (Unrestricted) Revenues: Actual (through FY 11) and Projected (beginning FY 12) millions of dollars 10000 Actual revenues 8000 6000 I Non-Oil Revenues Oil: Other oil revenues Oil: Production taxes Oil: Royalties 4000 2000 0 1978 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 Department of Revenue projections 26#27Alaska has very large natural gas resources ―but no way yet to get them to market. There are enormous natural gas resources on Alaska's North Slope-comparable in energy value to Alaska's oil resources. These gas resources have not been developed because there is no pipeline to bring them to market. Over the past decade there has been a lot of talk and excitement about building a gas pipeline. There has also been a lot of debate about where the pipeline should go. The two main options are pipeline through Canada to the American midwest, or a pipeline to Valdez where the gas could be converted into liquified natural gas (LNG) and shipped to markets in Asia. But a gas pipeline is not a sure thing! Building a gas pipeline raises extremely complex economic, financial, political and legal issues. Building a gas pipeline would be extremely expensive-potentially more than $20 billion (about half the value of Alaska's Permanent Fund)-based on cost estimates that are already several years old. Because of the high cost and the great uncertainty about future natural gas prices, developing North Slope natural gas in inherently risky. Anyone taking on this risk-the gas producers, the pipeline owners, gas customers, or the State-will want a large share of the profits. This makes it hard to reach a deal to build a pipeline. A recent steep decline in US natural gas prices, due to the rapid development of Lower 48 shale gas resources, has greatly reduced the likelihood that a pipeline to the midwest could be economically viable. But exports of LNG from Alaska to Asian markets would face competition from many other potential lower-cost LNG suppliers, such as Russia, Indonesia and even the US lower 48 states. Some people argue that no gas pipeline option is economically viable: that there isn't any way to profitably develop North Slope natural gas resources at the moment. Even if a gas pipeline is built, it will probably be at least ten years before construction would start. 27 27#28Alaska Seafood Industry Alaska's seafood industry is very large and very diverse. Many different kinds of boats-ranging from very small to very large-harvest many different kinds of fish. These are processed into many different kinds of products which are sold in markets all over the world. This makes it difficult to generalize about the Alaska seafood industry. The most important species for the Alaska seafood industry in terms of volume and value-are pollock, salmon, halibut and crab. There are important differences between these fisheries in resource conditions, market conditions, the types and scale of boats that are used, who participates in the fisheries, and who manages the fisheries. HUA ULTE 28#29Alaska Seafood Industry Economic Importance Alaska's seafood industry is world-scale. The value of fish harvests was about $1.7 billion in 2008. More than a billion dollars in value is added in fish processing. The seafood industry is particularly important for rural Alaska. Fishing is the most important source of income, taxes, infrastructure and utilities for coastal communities--and an important part of Alaska culture. However, many fishermen and the majority of fish processing workers are non-residents, and most of the large companies in the seafood industry are based outside Alaska. Savoonga Nome Alaska fish processing plants Fairbanks Anchorage Eagle River Indian Average annual fishing employment is about 9000 and average annual fish processing employment is about 7000. The number of people working in the seafood industry is much higher because many of the jobs are seasonal. Norton Sound Emmonak Umlakleet Son Hooper Bay Marshall Kenai Toksook Nikiski Mekoryuk • Bethel Chefornak- Kuskokwim St. Paul St. George *7 Kipnuk Quinhagak Bay Dillingham Soldotna, Kasilof Valder Togiak Ninilchik. Cordova Haines Clarks Point Seward Naknek Ekik Bristol Bay S. Naknek, Egegik King Homer Sterling Salmon Yakutak Gulf of Alaska Gustavus Kodiak Port Mollar Uganik Akutan Chignik Larsen Bay Elfin Cove Pelican Sitka Kake Port Armstrong Excursion Inlet Juncau Hoonah Wrangell Coffman Cove -Ketchikan Dutch Harbor - Unalaska False Pass Beaver Inlet Sand Point King Cove Petersburg Craig Metlakatla Map source: Alaska Division of Community Advocacy web site: http://www.dced.state.ak.us/cbd/seafood/seafoodprocessors.htm. 29 29 Adak Atka#30Seafood Industry Challenges Unlike many other places, most Alaska fish resources are healthy and not over- fished. However, falling prices caused a sharp decline in value during the 1990s, particularly in the salmon industry, which faced an economic crisis. Since 2002 prices and value have been increasing again. The management of many fisheries is being "restructured" to restrict the number of boats participating and to create fishing rights which may be bought and sold. This process is very controversial, because it significantly affects who participates in and benefits from Alaska fisheries. Real Ex-Vessel Value of Alaska Seafood Harvests 2,500 2,000 Competition from salmon farming led to a sharp drop in salmon prices in the 1990s. Fish farming is growing rapidly worldwide, but is banned in Alaska. millions of 2008 dollars 1,500 1,000 500 1960 1965 1970 Source: National Marine Fisheries Service Groundfish Shellfish Halibut Herring Salmon FRIENDS DON'T LET FRIENDS EAT FARMED FISH SUPPORT ALASKA'S WILD FISHERIES 30 30#31Red Dog Mine Mining Alaska has several large operating zinc, gold, silver and coal mines, and a number of smaller mines. Several very large mining prospects in southwestern Alaska, including the Pebble and Donlin Creek copper and gold deposits, are under evaluation and may be developed in the next few years. The total annual value of Alaska mineral production is more than $1 billion. Total direct employment in mining is about 1500 jobs. Although Alaska has significant mineral resources, high costs of extraction and transportation and volatile prices make it difficult for Alaska mining projects to compete in world markets. State revenues from mining are only about 1% as high as state revenues from oil. The Red Dog mine, north of Kotzebue, is Alaska's largest mine and the world's largest zinc mine. The land is owned by an Alaska Native corporation, NANA Regional Corporation. The Red Dog mine employs about 500 people, many of them Alaska Natives who are shareholders of NANA. The Fort Knox mine, north of Fairbanks, is Alaska's largest operating gold mine. Fort Knox Mine 31#32The Pebble Mine A major new potential mining project in Alaska is the proposed Pebble mine, which would develop copper and gold from a very large deposit in southwestern Alaska. The Pebble Partnership, a consortium of mining companies, is working to develop the project. This involves extensive studies and a long and complicating permitting process. This Pebble mine is generating a lot of controversy-and is likely to generate more-- because other resource values in this area, including fisheries and wilderness, are also very high. In particular, the Pebble project is in headwaters of Bristol Bay drainage—home to Alaska's most valuable salmon fishery and many sport-fishing lodges. Red Dog Prudhoe Bay E PEBBLE WEST 1 GOLD DISCOVERY PEBBLE EAST 25 GOLD DISCOVERY ALASKA Illinois Creek Nixon Fork Fort Knox • Fairbanks Pogo Usibelli Paxen Donlin Creek Anchorage Pebble Chuitna Kenai Dillingham Iliamna Ceal Seward Homer Tok 38 PORPHYRY DISCOVERY IP ANOMALY McCarthy 37 Cordova SKARN DISCOVERY 308 PORPHYRY DISCOVERY Source: Northern Dynasty Minerals Ltd presentation on Pebble project, downloaded March 14 2006 from: http://www.hdgold.com/i/ndm/NDM_Feb06_BMO_RAD.pdf 32 32#33Conflict over Resource Development The debate over the Pebble Mine is similar to many other debates which have occurred in Alaska's history between advocates of developing Alaska's resources and advocates of protecting Alaska's environment. These debates raise fundamental questions about what kind of future we want for Alaska, and whether or not we can develop our natural resources and also protect our environment. Alaska's constitution says that Alaska's resources are to be managed for the "maximum benefit" of Alaskans. But not all Alaskans agree about what "maximum benefits" means. Truth About Pebble ▸ Home About Pebble About Us Take Action News and Media Sig RENEWABLE RESOURCES COALITION About Us Pebble Mine Pebble Mine- Bristol Bay, Alaska The Pebble Open Pit Gold & Copper Mine puts at risk the most spectacular and abundant ecosystem in North America. The real threat to Alaska's fishing and hunting ecological systems is not ANWR, but rather the proposed development of an open pit mining district at the headwaters of the two most famous salmon producing river drainages in Alaska --the Mulchatna/ Nushagak River drainage and the Newhalen / Kvichak River drainage, both of which feed into the renowned Bristol Bay. The proposed Pebble Mine, which would be the first of many, would include the largest dam in the world, larger than Three Gorges Dam in China, and made of earth not concrete, to hold back the toxic waste created in the mining process. Where To? Go The Pebble Project The Coalition News NEW STATEWIDE ORGANIZATION FORMS TO SUPPORT PEBBLE PROJECT Truth About Pebble, a non-profit citizens' organization with board members from across Alaska, was unveiled today with plans to inform and educate Alaskans about the proposed Pebble Project represents one of North America's most significant deposits of strategic metals. Its development will create jobs, boost Alaska's economy, and more. See A Clean Environment The Pebble Project is investing in modern 21 st century resource development technologies to help protect the environment and wildlife. when producing mineral resources. The Pebble Project is committed to utilizing advanced environmental research and technologies in order to protect our environment. More... Here are two websites-one from an organization which opposes developing the Pebble mine and one which supports it. 33 33#34Tourism About 1.7 million visitors came to Alaska in the summer of 2008, more than half of them on cruise ships. Total employment attributable to tourism is estimated-by various methods-at about 25,000. The number of tourists visiting Alaska each year was growing steadily for many years until the recession caused a sharp drop in tourism in 2009. In the long-run, tourism is likely to continue to grow-creating demands for new facilities and recreational opportunities for visitors, as well as conflicts over crowding and land use. Summer Visitor Volume to Alaska, 2001-2008 1,714,100 1,707,400 1,632,000 1,631,500 1,447,400 1,275,000 1,310,100 1,202,800 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 Source:Alaska Visitor Statistics Program V Interim Visitor Volume Report, Summer 2008, http://www.commerce.state.ak.us/oed/toubus/pub/AVSP_2008.pdf 34#35Trade and Services Much of Alaska's employment growth over the past 40 years has come in support industries- particularly trade and services. Trade and service jobs now account for about half of total Alaska employment. Alaskans are much more likely to work in a retail store or a hospital than on an oil rig or a fishing boat. The growth in trade and services has led to a decline in average Alaska wages—because wages tend to be lower in trade and services than in other industries. Employment (thousands of jobs) 500 450 400 350 300 250 200 150 100 50 Estimated Alaska Employment, 1990-2008 Other Source: BEA Employment Estimates by NAICS Code Services Trade Transportation State and Local Government Traditional Basic COSTCO WHOLESALE ENTRANCE ENTER WALMART ** WE SELL FOR LESS! EXIT 35 35#360 millions of dollars 20,000 15,000 10,000 5,000 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 25,000 1992 40,000 35,000 30,000 1994 1996 1998 45,000 Alaska Permanent Fund Market Value (fiscal year end-balance) Alaska's Permanent Fund In 1976, Alaskans voted for a constitutional amendment mandating that part of the state's oil revenues must be deposited in a Permanent Fund.* These Permanent Fund savings have been invested in a diversified portfolio of assets including stocks, bonds and real estate. With new deposits and growth in the value of investments, the total value of the Permanent Fund grew to $40 billion by 2011. The value of the Permanent Fund fell sharply in 2002 and 2009 due to market downturns, but rebounded quickly. We can't spend the principal of the Permanent Fund-only the realized earnings. As the Permanent Fund has gotten bigger, these realized earnings have gotten bigger. Between 1998 and 2003, they exceeded the State's oil revenues. ** *The amendment requires that "at least 25 percent of all mineral lease rentals, royalties, royalty sales proceeds, federal mineral revenue-sharing payments and bonuses received by the state be placed in a permanent fund, the principal of which may only be used for income-producing investments." **Realized earnings are stock dividends, bond interest, real estate rent and the income made or lost by the sale of any of these investment assets.#37Permanent Fund Dividends Beginning in 1982, the legislature began to distribute part of the realized earnings of the Permanent Fund to Alaskans as "Permanent Fund Dividends." After an initial $1000 payment to all Alaskans in 1982, Permanent Fund Dividend annual payment amounts have been based on a formula roughly equal to half of the Permanent Fund average realized earnings over the previous five years, divided by the number or eligible Alaskans. When the fund's stock, bond and real estate investments have done well, Permanent Fund dividends have gone up-and vice $2,500 $2,000 $1,500 $1,000 $500 $0 60 versa. Alaska Permanent Fund Dividend Annual Payments T Source: Alaska Permanent Fund Corporation website About half the realized earnings of the Permanent Fund are used for dividends and the other half have been kept in the fund for "inflation-proofing." The Permanent Fund Dividend program is very popular among Alaskans. It means that Alaskans benefit directly from the past oil revenues and the Permanent Fund. But it also means that the money isn't. available for other uses such as helping to pay for state government. 37#38638761 The Rural Alaska Economy The economy of rural Alaska-particularly villages in western and interior Alaska-is very different from that of urban areas that account for most of Alaska's population. These population of "village Alaska" is overwhelmingly Alaska Native. Residents get much of their food from subsistence. Costs are very high, and basic infrastructure such as housing and water are far below the standards of urban Alaska. There are few jobs, and a very high share of jobs are in local government, education and health care. The economy is heavily dependent on federal and state transfers. A major economic challenge facing Alaska is how to create economic opportunities in these areas. There are no easy or obvious answers. % Alaska Native (1999) Unemployment rate (2000) Two Rural Census Areas Anchorage Wade Hampton Yukon- Koyukuk 8.1% 94.7% 63.3% 4.7% 17.8% 15.4% Adults Not In Labor Force (1990) 26.7% 44.3% 39.5% $4,000 $5,900 $7,100 % of population below poverty level (1997) 6.7% 39.4% 24.2% Transfer payments per person (1999) Many Alaska villages are accessible only by small planes, boats or snowmachines. Freight costs are heavily subsidized by the U.S. Postal Service's "bypass mail" program. 38 88#39Subsistence Subsistence--Alaska's original economy--remains an important part of the economy of rural Alaska. People in rural Alaska get much of their food from subsistence. Subsistence is a vital part of Alaska Native culture. Subsistence is difficult to quantify: it doesn't show up in measures of Alaska's cash economy, such as employment or Gross State Product data. Subsistence faces challenges, including a limited resource base and growing demands from sport and commercial users. A longstanding and important political debate is continuing over the relative roles of the federal and state governments in Alaska subsistence policy. Subsistence salmon drying Estimated annual wild food harvest (pounds per person) Nome census area 519 Bethel census area 592 Subsistence harvesting of Beluga whales NPS Photo A woman at a subsistence "fish camp"-an important part of summer family life in much of village Alaska 39#40Native Corporations The Alaska Native Claims Settlement Act of 1971 (ANCSA) created both "regional" and "village" Native corporations. There is a regional Native corporation for each of twelve Alaska regions. Some of the regional Native corporations have become very large and profitable businesses with many subsidiaries in Alaska and other states. Some of the most financially successful Native corporations, such as Cook Inlet Regional Corporation (CIRI) and Arctic Slope Regional Corporation have paid large dividends to their shareholders. Others have not been as successful and have paid very small dividends. Even the most successful Native corporations have found it difficult to create jobs in rural Alaska. Cumulative Dividends Per Shareholder, Alaska Native Regional Corporations, 1971-2003* $40,431 $113,468 Arctic Slope $8,353 $8,319 $460 NANA Doyon Bering Straits Calista $49 $6,908 $9,895 Cook Inlet Ahtna $5,469 $10,682 Bristol Bay $11,564 Chugach Alaska Sealaska $1,249 Aleut Corporation Koniag CIRI Many of the regional corporations have large headquarters office buildings in Anchorage. corp 40 40#41millions of dollars Spending as much as—or more than-we earn. For most of the 1990s, the State of Alaska's expenditures were higher than its revenues. The State paid for the difference by taking money out of a special savings account that the legislature had put aside. Until several years ago, a lot of people worried about what we would do when that savings account ran out of money: it looked like we would have to cut back on state spending, raise taxes, or reduce dividends. When oil prices and oil revenues increased dramatically the past few years, people stopped worrying about that problem. We started spending a lot more money-but luckily we also saved a lot of money, particularly since 2008. State "General" Expenditures and General Fund Revenues 6000 5000 4000 3000 2000 1000 0 FY78 FY80 FY82 "General" expenditures General fund revenues FY84 FY86 FY88 FY90 FY92 FY94 FY96 FY98 FYOO FY02 FY04 FY06 But people are worrying again. Even if oil prices stay high, if oil production keeps going down, eventually state oil revenues will go down. And cutting state spending won't be easy. When you hire more troopers and teachers and University faculty, give public employees pay raises, build more public facilities that need to be maintained, and so on, it's hard to cut back. We may soon be back with the same old problem of spending more than we are earning, and dipping into savings which could run out in a few years. 41#42Alaska's Fiscal Challenge Alaska faces a long-term fiscal problem. As Alaska's population grows, demand for State services will inevitably grow. At the same time, the oil revenues which have paid for most State services are likely to decline as oil production declines-regardless of what happens to oil prices. Alaska's investment earnings from the Permanent Fund were growing until the recent financial crisis. These investment earnings could in theory become a new "permanent" source of state revenues. But Alaskans have come to expect that those earnings will be used to pay for Permanent Fund dividends—rather than for government. Alaskans pay significant property taxes and/or sales taxes to local governments which help support both local governments and their local schools. But Alaskans have been unwilling to accept broad-based taxes—such as income or sales taxes-to pay for the costs of State government. Basically, we get our State government for free (and we expect it to send us money in the form of dividends). Eventually, when oil revenues decline, Alaskans will face a difficult choice. Either we will have to reduce spending, impose broad-based taxes on Alaskans, use some or all of the Permanent Fund earnings to pay for state expenditures rather than dividends—or spend from the capital of the Permanent Fund (which would require a constitutional amendment). Most likely we'll do some of each. No other state has both high oil revenues and a huge Permanent Fund. Most States would love to have Alaska's fiscal problem. It is not an economic challenge but a political challenge?#43The "Alaska Disconnect" Alaska's fiscal structure-specifically the fact that Alaskans do not pay any significant broad-based taxes-leads to a problem which has become known as the "Alaska Disconnect." If economic developments creates more jobs, Alaska's population grows. As the population grows, Alaskans need more schools and teachers for their children and the other services that state and local governments provide. Although the new Alaskans pay local sales and property taxes which support local services, they don't pay broad-based state taxes to cover the cost of state-funded services such as education and roads. The new jobs create new costs for the state but not corresponding new revenues. As a result, except for oil development (which pays high state taxes), many kinds of economic development make the state's financial situation more difficult. 43#44Alaska Economic Development Policy Alaskans and their politicians and long debated how to bring "economic development" to Alaska. Government can create jobs by spending money—and has done this throughout Alaska's economic history. But the federal and state governments have a poor track record in creating sustainable, profitable private-sector economic development by spending money. A number of government-funded projects, such as the Delta Barley and Point McKenzie Dairy agriculture projects, and the Alaska Seafood International plant in Anchorage, ended in complete failure. It's difficult for government to create profitable private sector development by spending money! Alaskans also exhibit conflict about whether they really want resource development. Almost every resource development opportunity-mining, logging, cruise ships, sport fishing lodges, fish farming-is opposed by local residents or other resource users who prefer to keep things as they are. The $50 million Alaska Seafood International Plant in Anchorage was sold to a church group for $25 million. 44#45Alaska's economic future is uncertain. There are positives, negatives and unknowns. Positives include the potential for further development of Alaska's large and varied resource base (oil, natural gas, coal, minerals, fish and forests), the growing value of Alaska's scenic resources for tourism, the information revolution which is making it possible for companies and people based in Alaska to do business anywhere in the world, and the earnings of the Permanent Fund. Negatives include declining oil production, the likelihood that federal spending in Alaska will decline significantly, and continued global competition from other natural resource producers. We don't know how resource discoveries, market prices, and political and technological changes may affect Alaska's economic future. 45#46Surprises Many of the most important events which have changed Alaska's economy have been almost completely unexpected. Examples include World War II, the 1964 earthquake, the discovery of the giant Prudhoe Bay oil field, the Exxon Valdez oil spill, the dramatic rise in oil prices in 1979 and in the mid 2000s, and the recent world economic crisis. There are probably more surprises in Alaska's future, which may have similarly unanticipated and dramatic effects. What will they be? ?? ED FE FAISEO RCADE CAFF LUANG 160 46