#1The Future of Texas 60×30TX Higher Education ★ Texas Higher Education 60x30TX February 22, 2017 Coordinating Board Raymund A. Paredes, Ph.D. Texas Commissioner of Higher Education Prosperity Requires Being Bold* Texas prosperity and innovation depends on extensive and meaningful collaboration among P-12, higher education, and the workforce. If we want to keep good, high-paying jobs in Texas, we must collaborate to produce an educated and well-trained workforce. * Prosperity Requires Being Bold: Integrating Education and the Workforce for a Bright Texas Future, the Tri-Agency Report to the Office of the Governor, November 2016. 60x30TX 2 1#2Texas must improve college readiness for all levels of postsecondary education - TSIA 29.95% met the college-readiness standard in all three areas - SAT 32% met the college-readiness standard in all areas - ACT 26% met the college-readiness standard in all areas (dropped 1 percentage point from 2015) - College readiness for African Americans is 8% and 12% for Latinos 60x30TX Estimated rate of recent high school graduates enrolling in higher education Enrollment in any Enrollment in home State state state California 58.5% 51.2% Texas 57.7% 51.1% New York 70.0% 56.4% Florida 62.8% 55.4% Illinois 60.2% 41.4% Nationwide 61.7% 50.0% Data shows estimated rate of 2011-2012 high school graduates attending degree granting postsecondary institutions in 2012 Source: National Center for Educational Statistics 60x30TX 3 4 2#360x30TX 60x30TX Higher Education Attainment Texas is losing ground nationally 37% 34% 43% 43% 42% 42% 40% TEXAS UNITED MINNESOTA STATES NEW ILLINOIS CALIFORNIA FLORIDA YORK 41% 38% 25- to 34-year-olds with associate degree or higher 55- to 64-year-olds with associate degree or higher Source: American Community Survey Public Use Microdata Sample 2015 Completion Rates: Public Universities 10 20 30 40 50 70 Six-Year Graduation Rates for Texas Public Universities 49.6% 60 0 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2015 6 59.3% 3 5#4Completion Rates: Public Two-Year Colleges Outcomes over Time for Full-Time Students, Public Two-Year Colleges 60x30TX 31.8% 26.6% 9.6% Awarded Certificate 11.4% 3.0% Awarded Associate Awarded Bachelor's 0.3% Transfer to a senior institution (4- 14.9% year) 11.0% 3.9% With 3 years 4.3% Fall 2011 Cohort (64,542 students) Within 4 years Eighth Grade Cohort Educational Outcomes 20 of 100 Texas 8th Graders complete a postsecondary credential within 11 years 14 of 100 Hispanic 8th Graders complete a postsecondary credential 13 of 100 African American 8th Graders complete a postsecondary credential 11 of 100 Economically disadvantaged 8th Graders complete a postsecondary credential Source: 2016 Texas Higher Education Almanac 60x30TX 100 of 8th graders enrolled in fall 2003.. DO DO DO received a CERTIFICATE DO DO graduated from 69 public high school 53 enrolled in higher education 20 received a higher education degree or certificate OF THESE 20° DO DO DO 15 received an ASSOCIATE DEGREE received a BACHELOR'S DEGREE OR HIGHER 7 8 4#5Why is 60x30TX so important? Americas Divided Recovery: College Haves and Have-Nots By: Anthony P. Carnevale, Tamara Jayasundera, Artem Gulish 60x30TX GEORGETOWN UNIVERSITY Center on Education and the Workforce McCourt School of Public Policy Overview 9 GEORGETOWN UNIVERSITY Center on Education and the Workforce McCourt School of Public Policy . • The modern economy continues to leave Americans without a college credential behind. Over 99 percent of job growth in the recovery went to workers with more than a high school education. • Workers with a high school diploma or less saw virtually no jobs growth. 60x30TX 10 5#6Job growth by education level GEORGETOWN UNIVERSITY Center on Education and the Workforce McCourt School of Public Policy • Out of the 11.6 million jobs created in the post- recession economy, 11.5 million went to workers with at least some college education. Graduate degree holders gained 3.8 million jobs, bachelor's degree holders gained 4.6 million jobs, and associate degree holders gained 3.1 million.* Employment of workers with a high school diploma or less only grew by 80,000 jobs. * No national data exists for certificate holders. 60×30TX 11 Workers with a bachelor's degree have added 8.4 million jobs, but workers with high school diplomas or less added only 80,000 jobs Employment Change (millions) -6 -8 10 Recession 8 6 Gained 187,000 jobs Lost 5.6 million jobs Lost 1.8 million jobs Recovery Gained 8.4 million jobs during the recovery Gained 3.1 million jobs during the recovery Gained 80,000 jobs during the recovery Dec-07 May-08- Oct-08- Mar-09- Aug-09- Jan-10- High school or less Ol-unr Nov-10- Apr-11 Sep-11- Feb-12- Jul-12- Dec-12 May-13 Oct-13 Mar-14 Aug-14 Jan-15 Jun-15 Nov-15 Apr-16 Associate's degree or some college Bachelor's degree or higher Source: Georgetown University Center on Education and the Workforce analysis of Current Population Survey (CPS) data, 2007-2016. Note: Employment includes all workers age 18 and older. The monthly employment numbers are seasonally adjusted using the U.S. Census Bureau X-12 procedure and smoothed using a four-month moving average.. 60x30TX 12 6#7Change in workforce composition GEORGETOWN UNIVERSITY Center on Education and the Workforce McCourt School of Public Policy •⚫ The recession and recovery have hastened a long- term change in the composition of the American workforce. • The Great Recession decimated low-skill, blue-collar and clerical jobs. The recovery added primarily high-skill, managerial and professional jobs. • For the first time, workers with a Bachelor's degree or higher make up a larger share of the workforce (36%) than those with a high school diploma or less (34%). 60x30TX 13 • . GEORGETOWN UNIVERSITY Center on Education and the Workforce McCourt School of Public Policy Job change by occupation Management added the largest number of jobs of any occupation during the recovery (1.6 million). Healthcare professional and technical occupations added the second most jobs (1.5 million). 60x30TX 14 7#8Conclusion GEORGETOWN UNIVERSITY Center on Education and the Workforce McCourt School of Public Policy The United States is in the midst of two different job recoveries. • Workers with at least some postsecondary education now make up 65 percent of the total employment. • Bachelor's degree holders now earn 57 percent of all wages. • Workers with a high school diploma or less must earn postsecondary credentials in order to compete effectively in growing high-skill career fields. 60x30TX 15 60x30TX Builds on Past Achievements 60x30TX 60x30TX EXCELLENC CLOSING the GAPS SUCCESS 16 8#9• • The Texas Higher Education Strategic Plan Global economy requires Texas to have an educated and adaptable workforce 60x30TX has four student-centered goals ⚫ Success requires collaboration • Higher education • K-12 education ● 60x30TX Workforce 17 60x30 By 2030, at least 60 percent of Texans ages 25-34 will have a postsecondary credential or degree. Achieving the 60x30 goal is critical for Texas to remain globally competitive and for its people and communities to prosper. 60x30TX 18 9#1060x30TX 60×30TX 60x30 Texas's economic future requires more postsecondary trained / educated workers • • In 1973, 28% of all U.S. jobs required postsecondary education/skills.* By 2020, 65% of all new jobs will require this level of education.* Currently, 40% of Texans aged 25-34 have a certificate, associate degree or higher. *Source: Georgetown Center on Education and the Workforce. Higher Education Attainment Texas is losing ground nationally 35% 36% 42% 38% 52% 42% 51% 42% 47% %59 40% 40% TEXAS UNITED MINNESOTA NEW ILLINOIS CALIFORNIA FLORIDA STATES YORK 25- to 34-year-olds with associate degree or higher 55- to 64-year-olds with associate degree or higher Source: American Communities Survey Public Use Microdata Sample 2013 20 39% 37% 10 19#1160x30TX 60x30TX slae 60x30TX: Educated Texans Produce Economic Growth Higher Education Pays Off MILLIONS $4 2013 Dollars $3 $1,978,115 $2,098,092 $2 $1,612,562 $1,188,623 $1 $3,130,118 $0 High School Dropout High School Some College, Diploma No Degree Associate Degree Bachelor's Degree Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey, 2011, 2012, and 2013. Texas' 3-year average inflation-adjusted earnings summed for Texans ages 25 to 64 by educational attainment for those working more than 32 hours per week and 49 weeks per year. COMPLETION Goal: By 2030, at least 550,000 students in that year will complete a certificate, associate, bachelor's, or master's from an institution of higher education in Texas. If reached, Texas will award a total of 6.4 million certificates or degrees during the 15 years of this plan. 22 21 11#12COMPLETION What is college? ..... What is counted? College is enrollment / completion at a Texas 2- year, 4-year, or health-related institution. . • Level I certificate . • Level II certificate • Associate degree Bachelor's degree • Master's degree 60×30TX བ་དང COMPLETION Targets to achieve this goal. 23 • Increase the number of Hispanic students completing a certificate or degree to 285,000 by 2030. • Increase the number of African American students completing a certificate or degree to 76,000 by 2030. • Increase the number of male students completing a certificate or degree to 275,000 by 2030. • Increase the number of economically disadvantaged students completing a certificate or degree to 246,000 by 2030. • Increase the percentage of all Texas public high school graduates enrolling in a Texas institution of higher education by the first fall after their high school graduation to 65 percent by 2030. 60x30TX 24 12#13MARKETABLE SKILLS Goal: By 2030, all graduates from Texas public institutions of higher education will have completed programs with identified marketable skills. What is a marketable skill? Students exit from any degree program with a variety of skills. Marketable skills include interpersonal, cognitive, and applied skill areas, are valued by employers, and are primary or complementary to a major. 60×30TX 25 MARKETABLE SKILLS "Getting a better job" In a 2015 national study, 85 percent of surveyed college freshmen identified "getting a better job" as the most important reason for attending college. 60x30TX 26 13#14ફો STUDENT DEBT Goal: By 2030, undergraduate student loan debt will not exceed 60 percent of first-year wages for graduates of Texas public institutions. Texas could experience greater shortages in important fields if student loan debt spikes to the point at which a majority of students choose programs based entirely on potential income. 60x30TX ડ્રો 60x30TX STUDENT DEBT A balanced triangle Funding College or University Be Efficient State Fund Wisely Time-to-Degree Financial Literacy State Grants Student Be Financially Informed 27 28 14#15ડ્ર STUDENT DEBT Targets to achieve this goal. Decrease the excess semester credit hours (SCHs) that students attempt when completing an associate or a bachelor's degree. Work to limit debt so that no more than half of all students who earn an undergraduate degree or certificate will have debt. 60x30TX 29 "The strength of Texas' economy is our workforce, and a skilled and educated workforce gives Texas a competitive advantage... Texas will be better because of our new focus on 60x30TX and our brightest years are yet to come." - Gov. Greg Abbott 60×30TX 15