#1Center for RURAL Pennsylvania A LEGISLATIVE AGENCY OF THE PENNSYLVANIA GENERAL ASSEMBLY Pennsylvania's Changing Population January 22, 2024 Kyle C. Kopko, Ph.D., J.D. Executive Director, Center for Rural Pennsylvania www.rural.pa.gov#2Center for • Rural Pennsylvania • Legislative research agency of the Pennsylvania General Assembly • (Act 16, 1987 & Act 12, 2009) Mandates Administer grants to conduct research on rural conditions. • Maintain a database on rural conditions and needs. Recent Legislative Hearings: Youth Mental Health, Broadband Access, Opioid Addiction and Overdose, Utility-Scale Solar Development, and more...#3Current & Forthcoming Center Reports Currently on Website Pennsylvania Population Projections 2050: A First Look • Pandemic-Associated Cyber Charter Enrollments and the Impacts on Rural School Districts in Pennsylvania • Community and Economic Impact of the Pennsylvania Wilds • Reversing Population Decline in Rural Pennsylvania enter for RURAL Pennsylvania October 202 Pennsylvania Population Projections 2050: A First Look • Student mental health report Report on college "promise" programs Spring/Summer 2024 • Caring for Pennsylvanians with Dementia • Solar Development on Farmland Public Libraries and Small Business Growth And more!#4Pennsylvania Rural and Urban Counties, 2020 Erie 339.0 Warren 43.6 McKean 41.3 Crawford Potter 15.2 Tioga 36.2 Bradford 52.3 Susquehanna 46.7 Wayne 82.9 70.5 Forest 16.3 Wyoming Mercer 164.5 Venango 74.8 Elk 37.5 Cameron 11.5 Clarion Clinton 42.2 Lycoming 92.9 Sullivan 13.0 65.6 Lackawanna 470.3 Pike 107.4 62.0 Jefferson Montour 68.2 Lawrence Clearfield 139.2 Columbia 134.0 Luzerne 365.7 Monroe Centre Union 276.7 240.3 Butler 70.4 245.7 Armstrong 142.5 100.4 135.1 Northumberland 199.9 Carbon 169.7 Snyder 120.9 Northampton Beaver 387.0 Indiana 100.7 Mifflin Schuylkill 183.7 Juniata 112.3 Lehigh 1,085.2 846.6 Allegheny 1,712.9 Cambria 60.1 193.9 Blair Huntingdon 233.6 50.4 Perry Dauphin Lebanon 83.1 545.5 Berks 500.7 395.9 Westmoreland 345.2 Bucks 1,069.9 Washington 244.3 Cumberland 475.7 Montgomery 1,773.3 Bedford Greene 62.4 Fayette 163.0 Somerset 69.0 Lancaster 585.9 47.0 Fulton Franklin 33.3 201.9 Adams 200.2 York 504.8 Chester 712.1 Delaware Philadelphia 11,959.6 3,137.6 Statewide Population Density = 291 Persons per Square Land Mile, 2020 19 Urban Counties - Population Density At or Above Statewide Rate 48 Rural Counties - Population Density Below Statewide Rate Data source: U.S. Census Bureau Center for RURAL Pennsylvania#5Population Change#6Stagnant Population Change, 1920 to 2050 (Projected) (In Millions) Rural PA 3.05 Rural PA 3.06 Rural PA 3.28 Rural PA 3.25 Rural PA 3.39 Rural PA 3.47 Rural PA 3.38 Rural PA 3.34 Rural PA 3.27 Rural PA 3.19 Rural PA 3.03 Rural PA Rural PA 3.03 2.92 Rural PA 2.83 Urban PA 5.89 Urban PA 6.71 Urban PA 6.87 Urban PA 7.74 Urban PA 8.27 Urban PA 87.4 Urban PA 8.59 Urban PA 8.63 Urban PA 8.89 Urban PA 9.23 Urban PA 9.61 Urban PA 9.84 Urban PA 9.96 Urban PA 10.01 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 (Proj) (Proj) Data sources: U.S. Census Bureau and the Pennsylvania State Data Center. Center for 2050 (Proj) RURAL Pennsylvania#7Pennsylvania's Population Shifts Towards the Southeast Data sources: U.S. Census Bureau and the Pennsylvania State Data Center. Estimated Population Centers in Pennsylvania, 1990 to 2050 (Projected) Franklin Mifflin Juniata Perry Snyder Northumberland. 1990 2010 2030 (P) 2000 -2050 (P) 2020 Dauphin 2040 (P) Cumberland York Center for RURAL Pennsylvania#8Erie 0.3% Projected Population Change, 2020 to 2050 Data Source: Pennsylvania State Data Center. Prepared by the Center for Rural Pennsylvania. Warren -11.1% McKean -8.1% Crawford -4.7% Potter -9.3% Tioga -9.8% Bradford -4.8% Susquehanna -13.4% Wayne -15.0% Forest -19.7% Mercer -5.1% Venango -10.6% Elk -15.4% Cameron -9.7% Lycoming -1.6% Sullivan -2.7% Wyoming -10.3% Lackawanna 0.8% Pike -24.3% Clarion Clinton 0.7% -4.7% Jefferson Montour Lawrence -6.6% Butler -7.5% Armstrong -15.6% Beaver -8.9% Indiana 10.9% Allegheny -1.8% Westmoreland -5.5% Clearfield -7.3% Centre 12.3% 3.2% Columbia Luzerne 3.6% -15.8% Union 15.0% Monroe -4.7% Northumberland Carbon -13.0% Snyder -1.3% -8.4% Northampton -2.1% Mifflin 4.6% Juniata Schuylkill -10.5% Lehigh 11.3% Cambria Blair -9.2% -6.4% Huntingdon 15.1% -2.8% Perry Dauphin -4.5% 11.3% Lebanon Berks 7.4% Bucks -7.5% 12.7% -16.0% Washington -10.0% Cumberland 14.1% Montgomery 0.2% Greene -4.8% Fayette -4.9% Somerset -11.2% Bedford -8.3% Lancaster 8.4% Chester Fulton Franklin -1.1% 0.5% Adams -12.0% York 4.0% 6.9% Delaware Philadelphia 14.7% 5.5% Statewide Population Change: 1.6% Population Decrease or No Change Population Increase Center for RURAL Pennsylvania#9Pennsylvania's Population Shifts Towards the Southeast Data sources: U.S. Census Bureau and the Pennsylvania State Data Center. Population in Southeastern Pennsylvania and Rest of Pennsylvania, 1920 to 2050 (Projected) (In Millions) 5.11 3.61 6.50 6.15 5.89 5.91 6.96 7.80 7.71 7.57 7.34 5.96 5:29 5.90 5.76 5.78 5.73 5.75 5.69 5.66 5.62 5.55 5.52 5.40 4.08 4.21 4.74 Southeastern Pennsylvania Rest of Pennsylvania 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 (Proj) (Proj) (Proj) Center for RURAL Pennsylvania#10An Older Pennsylvania#11Statewide Projected Total Population Over 65 Years, 1990 to 2050 (In Millions) 2010 2000 1.96 1990 1.83 1.92 2020 2.44 2040 2030 (Proj.) 3.03 (Proj.) 3.11 2050 (Proj.) 3.04 Data Source: Pennsylvania State Data Center. Prepared by the Center for Rural Pennsylvania. Center for RURAL Pennsylvania#1230.0% 27.5% 25.0% Percent of Under 20 Years Old and 65 Years Old and Older <20 22.5% 65+ 20.0% 17.5% 15.0% 12.5% United States 30.0% 27.5% 25.0% Urban Pennsylvania 22.5% <20 65+ 20.0% 17.5% 15.0% 12.5% 10.0% 10.0% 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 (Proj.) (Proj.) (Proj.) (Proj.) (Proj.) (Proj.) 30.0% 27.5% 25.0% <20 22.5% 65+ 20.0% 17.5% 15.0% 12.5% Pennsylvania 30.0% 27.5% 25.0% Rural Pennsylvania 22.5% <20 65+ 20.0% 17.5% 15.0% 12.5% 10.0% 10.0% 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 2050 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030 2040 (Proj.) (Proj.) (Proj.) (Proj.) (Proj.) 2050 (Proj.) Center for Data source: U.S. Census and Pennsylvania State Data Center. RURAL Pennsylvania#13Counties With More People 65+ Than People <20 Years Old 2020 (n=26) 2030 (proj.) (n=53) 2040 (proj.) (n=56) 2050 (Proj.) (n=49) Data sources: U.S. Census Bureau and the Pennsylvania State Data Center. Center for RURAL Pennsylvania#14Age Dependency Ratios, 1990 to 2050 (Projected) Age Dependency Ratio Formula Population <20 Years Old + Population 65+ Years Old Population 20 to 64 Years Old Rural and Urban Pennsylvania Rural PA Urban PA Pennsylvania and United States 2030 88.4% 2040 89.8% 2050 86.2% ...United States 2030 81.9% 2040 81.2% 2050 80.2% Pennsylvania 2040 80.7% 2030 2050 79.5% 80.0% 1990 76.5% 2000 73.2% 2020 72.7% 2000 73.8% 2020 75.8% 2030 79.7% 2040 78.6% 2050 78.4% 1990 72.3% 2000 73.0% 2010 69.5% 2020 71.7% 1990 70.8% 2010 67.4% Data sources: U.S. Census Bureau and the Pennsylvania State Data Center. 2010 67.9% 2020 71.3% 1990 70.5% 2000 69.6% 2010 66.7% Center for RURAL Pennsylvania#15Components of Population Change#16180,000 170,000 Births 1990 171,532 160,000 150,000 Births 140,000 Deaths 130,000 120,000 Deaths 110,000 1990 121,081 100,000 1990 91 32 93 কু 25 % دو 39 % Number of Births and Deaths in Pennsylvania, 1990-2020 *Preliminary births and deaths. Data source: Pennsylvania Department of Health. Deaths 2000 130,092 50 20 Births 2000 Births 145,874 2010 142,370 03 OF 60 80 50 20 So 8 Deaths 2020 155,551 Births 2020 130,730 Births 2022* Deaths 2010 130,298 123,473 12 13 15 18 02 67 21 2022* Center for RURAL Pennsylvania Deaths 2022* 147,168#17Natural Population Change (Births Minus Deaths) by County, 2010-2019 Data source: Pennsylvania Department of Health. Erie 2,111 Warren -961 McKean -1,152 Crawford Potter 217 Tioga -182 Bradford 88 Susquehanna -902 Wayne -592 -1,979 Forest -579 Mercer €3,027 Venango -1,257 Elk -959 Cameron 202 Lycoming -311 Sullivan -561 Wyoming -376 Lackawanna 5,184 Pike -743 Clarion Clinton 102 Lawrence $2,587 Butler -279 Jefferson Luzerne -702 Clearfield 2,052 Centre 2,838 Montour Union 80 Columbia -8,464 -1,092 Monroe 525 305 -1,696 Armstrong 1,999 Snyder 864 Northumberland 2,331 Carbon 2,203 Northampton -816 Beaver 4,586 Indiana -795 Mifflin 286 Juniata Schuylkill 5,958 Lehigh 8,402 Allegheny -5,794 Cambria €5,441 245 Blair Huntingdon $2,925 -466 Westmoreland 908 Perry Dauphin 9,306 Berks Lebanon 1,572 Bucks -429 9,225 -13,989 Washington 5,522 Cumberland 2,760 Montgomery 13,506 Greene -692 Fayette €4,455 Somerset €2,834 Bedford Lancaster 21,724 Chester } SPhiladelphia -911 Fulton Franklin -62 3,001 Adams -180 York 8,772 15,982 Delaware 11,486 $78,435 More Deaths than Births (Neg. Natural Change) More Births than Deaths (Pos. Natural Change) Center for RURAL Pennsylvania#18Total Fertility Rates by County, 2016-2020 Erie 1.65 Warren 2.02 McKean 1.68 Potter 2.12 Tioga 1.75 Bradford 2.02 Susquehanna 1.88 Wayne 1.75 Crawford 1.84 Forest 1.58 Wyoming 1.70 Venango 1.83 Elk 1.93 Cameron 1.69 Mercer 1.77 Lycoming 1.69 Sullivan 1.82 Lackawanna 1.62 Pike 1.56 Clarion Clinton 1.72 1.59 Jefferson Lawrence 1.85 Butler 1.64 1.99 Clearfield 1.82 Centre 1.15 Montour Columbia 1.39 Luzerne 1.74 Monroe Union 1.74. (1.98. 1.54 Armstrong 1.79 Beaver 1.69 Allegheny 1.50 Westmoreland 1.61 Snyder 1.76 Northumberland 1.85 Carbon 1.72 Northampton 1.55 Indiana 1.64 Mifflin 2.28 Juniata Schuylkill 1.80 Lehigh 1.78 Cambria 1.77 Blair 1.72 Huntingdon 1.66 2.18' Perry Dauphin 2.00 1.85 Lebanon 1.91 Berks 1.78 Bucks 1.61 Washington 1.69 Cumberland 1.66 Montgomery 1.65 Greene 1.78 Fayette 1.82 Somerset 1.91 Bedford 1.96 Lancaster 2.01 Fulton 1.90 Franklin 1.93 York Chester 1.73 Adams 1.67 1.78 Delaware 1.72 Philadelphia 1.57 Total Fertility Rate Replacement Level = 2.10+ Below Replacement Level At or Above Replacement Level According to the CDC, the total fertility rate (TFR) estimates the number of births that a hypothetical group of women would have over their lifetimes, based on age-specific birth rates in a given year. Replacement level for the TFR is the level at which a given generation can exactly replace itself (generally considered to be 2.1 births per woman). Data for Pennsylvania counties are for women aged 15 to 44 years old. Data sources: Pennsylvania Department of Health and the U.S. Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC). Top Five States with the Highest Total Fertility Rates, 2016-2020 1. South Dakota = 2.13 2. Utah = 2.05 3. North Dakota = 2.03 4. Nebraska = 2.02 5. Alaska 1.99 = 39. Pennsylvania = 1.67 Center for RURAL Pennsylvania#19Migration In and Out of Pennsylvania, 2022 Data source: 2022, 1-year Average, American Community Survey Public Use Microsample Data, U.S. Census Bureau. Florida 34,174 New North Carolina 10,645 Virginia 11,610 Other States 92,345 Outside U.S. 56,876 In-Migration to PA 327,035 New York 46,506 New Jersey 38,963 Maryland 23,787 Delaware 11,669 Other States 104,002 Out-Migration from PA 278,697 Texas 11,843 North Carolina 12,071 Maryland 12,924 Jersey 32,987 California 13,710 New York 26,962 Virginia 18,355 Ohio 11,763 Florida 15,531 Net-Migration +48,338 California 19,009 Center for RURAL Pennsylvania#20Comparison to the U.S.#21United States Population, 1990 to 2050 (Projected) (In Millions - Graph Not to Scale) 1970 203.21 1960 179.32 1950 1940 151.33 1920 1930 123.20 132.17 106.02 2020 2010 308.75 308.75 2000 281.42 1990 248.71 1980 226.55 2030 (Proj) 345.07 2040 (Proj) 355.31 2050 (Proj) 360.64 United States Rural PA 2.83 Rural PA 2.92 Rural PA 3.03 Rural PA 3.03 Rural PA 3.05 Rural PA 3.06 Rural PA 3.28 Rural PA 3.25 Rural PA 3.39 Rural PA 3.47 Rural PA 3.38 Rural PA 3.34 Rural PA 3.27 Rural PA 3.19 Urban PA 5.89 Urban PA 6.71 Urban PA 6.87 Urban PA 7.74 Urban PA 8.27 Urban PA 87.4 Urban PA 8.59 Urban PA 8.63 Urban PA 8.89 Urban PA 9.23 Urban PA 9.61 Urban PA 9.84 Urban PA Urban PA 9.96 10.01 1920 1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000 2010 2020 2030... 2040... U.S. Projection are based on the 2020 Census and created in 2023. Data sources: U.S. Census Bureau and the Pennsylvania State Data Center. Center for 2050... RURAL Pennsylvania#22County Population Change 2020 to 2050 (Projected), Includes Only Counties with Population Projections to 2050 Note: Data from multiple sources using different methodologies. Population Decrease or No Change Population Increase Rural Counties Population, 2020 (Millions) Population, 2050 (Millions) % Change, 2020-2050 55.6 Urban Counties 140.7 Total Counties 196.3 65.1 171.5 236.6 17% 22% 21% # Counties with Decrease or No Change 619 42 661 # Counties with Increase 595 220 815 Center for Total # Counties 1,214 262 1,476 RURAL Pennsylvania#23Labor Force Implications#2440.0% 35.0% <35 Years Old 30.0% 25.0% 20.0% 15.0% 2000 35.5% 10.0% 55+ Years Old 2000 14.3% 5.0% % Rural Pennsylvania Employees Under 35 and 55 Years Old and Older, 2000 to 2022 <35 Years Old 2022 32.2% <35 Years Old 55+ Years Old 55+ Years Old 2022 27.5% Aging Workforce and Shrinking Labor Force (Data sources: Longitudinal Employer-Household Dynamics, U.S. Census Bureau and Pennsylvania Department of Labor and Industry). 0.0% 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 Rural Pennsylvania Labor Force, 2000 to 2022 (In Millions) Center for RURAL Pennsylvania 2000 to 2022 Avg. 1.67 Million 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 1.63 1.65 1.67 1.66 1.69 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 1.70 1.71 1.72 1.75 1.73 1.69 1.69 1.70 1.69 1.66 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 1.66 1.65 1.63 1.63 1.63 2020 2021 2022 1.62 1.59 1.59#25Labor Force Participation Rates by County, 2022 Bucks 53.7% Labor Force Participation Rates Number of people in labor force divided by total population. Note: the 2022 labor force is the 12- month not seasonally adjusted average. Data sources: U.S. Census Population Estimates and Pennsylvania Department of Labor and Industry. Erie 47.4% Warren 46.1% McKean 41.6% Crawford Potter 43.7% Tioga 45.8% Bradford 46.3% Susquehanna 53.1% 45.3% Wayne 43.7% Forest 25.8% Venango 42.4% Elk 48.2% Cameron 44.5% Mercer 43.3% Lycoming 48.3% Sullivan 43.1% Wyoming 51.4% Lackawanna 48.3% Pike 42.4% Clarion Clinton 45.1% Luzerne 44.4% Jefferson Montour 44.5% 48.2% $49.8% Columbia Lawrence 46.2% Butler 50.0% Armstrong 48.2% Beaver 49.5% Indiana 43.6% Allegheny 51.2% Cambria Westmoreland 49.9% Clearfield 51.1% Monroe 49.4% Centre 45.1% 48.7% Union 45.5% Northumberland Carbon 50.0% Snyder 49.2% 46.0% Northampton 51.8% Mifflin 45.0% Juniata Schuylkill 45.2% Lehigh 52.8% 54.1% 42.2% Blair Huntingdon 49.2% 44.2% Perry Dauphin 54.0% 51.2% Lebanon 51.2% Berks 48.9% Washington 49.8% Cumberland 50.8% Montgomery 53.3% Greene 44.5% Fayette 43.9% Somerset 44.3% Bedford 50.0% Lancaster 51.2% Fulton Franklin 48.7% 49.4% Adams 52.0% York 51.5% Chester 53.3% Delaware 51.7% Philadelphia 46.2% Statewide Rate = 49.6% At or Below Statewide Rate Above Statewide Rate Rural and Urban Labor Force Participation Rates, 2012 to 2022 2019 2012 51.1% 2013 51.0% 2014 50.6% 2015 50.9% 2016 51.2% 51.6% 2017 51.1% 2018 51.1% 2020 50.6% 2021 50.0% 2022 50.5% 2012 49.3% 2013 49.0% 2014 48.4% 2015 48.5% 2016 48.5% 2017 2018 2019 48.3% 48.1% 48.0% 2020 47.9% • Rural 2021 47.0% 2022 47.1% • Urban Center for RURAL Pennsylvania#26Implications for Broadband#27Census Blocks With and Without Access to Cable, Fiber or Licensed Fix Wireless Internet Access, Updated Sept. 2023 Broadband Access Shaded Areas are Census Blocks With Access to Cable, Fiber or Licensed Fixed Wireless. White Areas are Census Blocks Without Access to Cable, Fiber or Licensed Fixed Wireless % Rural and Urban Households in Census Blocks Without Access to Cable, Fiber or Licensed Fixed Wireless Internet Access, 2023 Data sources: 2020 Census and the FCC Broadband Map. Data last updated on Sept. 26, 2023. 92,573 Households (7%) % Rural Households 20,146 Households (1%) % Urban Households Center for RURAL Pennsylvania#28No Home Internet Connection Percentage of Households Without Internet Connection, 2015 and 2022 2015 23% 2022 10% 2015 18% Rural Households With No Urban Households With No Households With Internet Internet, Connection, 2022 Internet Connection, 2022 2022 Avg. Age of Householder 68.4 68.6 52.3 Avg. # Persons in Household 1.6 1.6 2.4 Household Income $26,579 $28,038 $77,027 Poverty Rate 27% 28% 11% % With Children in Household 8% 7% 27% % Living Alone 64% 69% 28% % Householder Person of Color 7% 31% 23% 2022 7% % Householder with No High School Diploma 21% 27% 5% % Homeowners 65% 56% 70% % Householder Not in Labor 74% 71% 33% Force Rural Urban % No Vehicle Available 28% 41% 8% Data sources: 2015 and 2022, 1-Year Average, American Community Survey, Public Use Microdata Sample U.S. Census Bureau. Center for RURAL Pennsylvania#29Center for RURAL Pennsylvania A LEGISLATIVE AGENCY OF THE PENNSYLVANIA GENERAL ASSEMBLY Thank You Dr. Kyle Kopko, Executive Director, [email protected]