Melrose Investor Presentation Deck

Made public by

sourced by PitchSend

28 of 35

Category

Industrial

Published

October 2023

Slides

Transcriptions

#1Engines Investor Event 17 & 18 October 2023 GKN AEROSPACE Our Mission: To be the most TRUSTED and SUSTAINABLE partner in the sky ENGINES | STRUCTURES MAKING THINGS FLY#2(N) GKN AEROSPACE 1 Disclaimer This presentation has been prepared by or on behalf of Melrose Industries PLC ("Melrose"). The information set out in this presentation is not intended to form the basis of any contract. By attending (whether in person, by telephone or webcast) this presentation or by reading the presentation slides, you agree to the conditions set out below. This presentation (including any oral briefing and any question-and-answer session in connection with it) is for information only. The presentation is not intended to, and does not constitute, represent or form part of any offer, invitation, inducement or solicitation of any offer to purchase, otherwise acquire, subscribe for, sell or otherwise dispose of, any securities or the solicitation of any vote or approval in any jurisdiction. It must not be acted on or relied on in connection with any contract or commitment whatsoever. It does not constitute a recommendation regarding any securities. Past performance, including the price at which Melrose's securities have been previously bought or sold and the past yield on Melrose's securities, cannot be relied on as a guide to future performance. Nothing herein should be construed as financial, legal, tax, accounting, actuarial or other specialist advice. The release, presentation, publication or distribution of this presentation in jurisdictions other than the United Kingdom may be restricted by law and therefore any persons who are subject to the laws of any jurisdiction other than the United Kingdom should inform themselves about and observe any applicable requirements. It is your responsibility to satisfy yourself as to the full observance of any relevant laws and regulatory requirements. Any failure to comply with applicable requirements may constitute a violation of the laws and/or regulations of any such jurisdiction. Nothing in this presentation constitutes investment advice and any recommendations that may be contained herein have not been based upon a consideration of the investment objectives, financial situation or particular needs of any specific recipient. None of Melrose, its shareholders, subsidiaries, affiliates, associates, or their respective directors, officers, partners, employees, representatives and advisers (the "Relevant Parties") makes any representation or warranty, express or implied, as to the accuracy or completeness of the information contained in this presentation, or otherwise made available, nor as to the reasonableness of any assumption contained in such information, and any liability there for (including in respect of direct, indirect, consequential loss or damage) is expressly disclaimed. No information contained herein or otherwise made available is, or shall be relied upon as, a promise, warranty or representation, whether as to the past or the future and no reliance, in whole or in part, should be placed on the fairness, accuracy, completeness or correctness of such information. Unless expressly stated otherwise, no statement in this presentation is intended as a profit forecast or estimate for any period and no statement in this presentation should be interpreted to mean that cash flow from operations, free cash flow, earnings or earnings per share for Melrose for the current or future financial years would necessarily match or exceed the historical published cash flow from operations, free cash flow, earnings or earnings per share of Melrose. Statements of estimated cost savings relate to future actions and circumstances which, by their nature, involve risks, uncertainties and contingencies. As a result, any cost savings referred to may not be achieved, may be achieved later or sooner than estimated, or those achieved could be materially different from those estimated. By attending the presentation to which this document relates and/or accepting this document you will be taken to have represented, warranted and undertaken that you have read and agree to comply with the contents of this notice. This presentation contains forward-looking statements concerning the financial condition, results of operations and businesses of Melrose. All statements other than statements of historical fact are, or may be deemed to be, forward-looking statements. Forward-looking statements are statements of future expectations that are based on management's current expectations and assumptions and involve known and unknown risks and uncertainties that could cause actual results, performance or events to differ materially from those expressed or implied in these statements. Forward-looking statements include, among other things, statements concerning the potential exposure of Melrose to market risks and statements expressing management's expectations, beliefs, estimates, forecasts, projections and assumptions including as to future potential cost savings, synergies, earnings, cash flow, return on average capital employed, production and prospects. These forward-looking statements are identified by their use of terms and phrases such as "anticipate", "believe", "could", "estimate", "expect", "intend", "may", "plan", "objectives", "outlook", "probably", "project", "will", "seek", "target", "risks", "goals", "should" and similar terms and phrases. There are a number of factors that could affect the future operations of Melrose and could cause those results to differ materially from those expressed in the forward-looking statements included in this presentation, including (without limitation): (a) changes in demand for Melrose's products; (b) currency fluctuations; (c) loss of market share and industry competition; (d) risks associated with the identification of suitable potential acquisition properties and targets, and successful negotiation and completion of such transactions; and (e) changes in trading conditions. All forward-looking statements contained in this presentation are expressly qualified in their entirety by the cautionary statements contained or referred to in this section. Readers should not place undue reliance on forward-looking statements. Each forward-looking statement speaks only as at the specified date of the relevant document within which the statement is contained. Melrose does not undertake any obligation to publicly update or revise any forward-looking statement as a result of new information, future events or other information. In light of these risks, results could differ materially from those stated, implied or inferred from the forward-looking statements contained in this presentation. Certain financial data has been rounded. As a result of this rounding, the totals of data presented in this presentation may vary slightly from the actual arithmetic totals of such data. The revenue and profit numbers included in this presentation are calculated using a foreign exchange rate of USD:GBP of 1.25:1 and, unless otherwise stated, growth metrics are at constant currency. Unless otherwise stated, metrics refer to adjusted measures as described in the glossary to the Melrose Industries PLC 2023 Interim Financial Statements and considered by the Board to be a key measure of performance.#3(N) GKN AEROSPACE Team and introductions Peter Dilnot CEO Matthew Gregory CFO FASD Joakim Andersson President, GKN Engines Russ Dunn CTO 2#4←N> GKN AEROSPACE Event overview Context Melrose evolved into a focused aerospace business post-demerger in April Aerospace Capital Markets Event outlined compelling organic equity case in May Started journey to aerospace re-rating based on sector and trajectory Interim results in September exceeded H1 expectations, raised 2023 full year guidance and initiated share buyback early Engines operating margin now expected to be 24% in 2023, ahead of plan New target of >30% operating margin post 2025 Event objectives To showcase in more detail the full quality of the Engines business by: Bringing the breadth and depth of capability to life in person - Introducing you to our world class leadership team Highlighting our design and manufacturing skills on the shopfloor Demonstrating our balanced portfolio of business models To give confidence on our trajectory and ability to meet stated targets 3#5(N) GKN AEROSPACE Key messages 1 2 3 GKN Engines has OEM-level capability and responsibility for selected engines which gives more technical and commercial advantages than normal for a Tier 1 supplier Leading independent Tier 1 partner to all major engine OEMs with lucrative and diverse RRSP¹ portfolio, providing balance and resulting opportunities Strong long-term demand for GKN proprietary breakthrough technologies which will shape new ways for the industry to improve Trading ahead of plan with the 2023 full year Engines margin guidance raised to 24% Significantly underpinning the 28% margin in 2025 and >30% beyond 1. Risk and revenue sharing partnerships 4#6KN GKN AEROSPACE ▶▶ Overview 7 OOO VOA VDA#7←N> GKN AEROSPACE Aerospace overview: unique Tier 1 technology supplier ܝ ܚ ܚ ܥ ܗ ܗ Established positions 4. on ALL of the world's high volume aircraft¹ >85% future Engines profit from aftermarket³ >70% revenue from sole source positions² Engines RRSP4 aftermarket entitlement on 100% of legacy narrowbody global flying hours 5 >650 global patents granted CH 1. All of the world's high-volume platforms based on Airbus and Boeing narrowbody/widebody fleets, plus F-35 and major rotorcraft 2. >70% sole source positions based on 2022 revenue mix 3. Expected profit split of Engines division in 2025 Risk and revenue sharing partnerships GKN Aerospace's 19 RRSPs are on engines that power 100% of legacy narrowbody hours through CFM56 and V2500 contracts Forecast (undiscounted) pre-tax future cash flow from 19 RRSP engines contracts (based on OEM projections) and using a foreign exchange rate of USD:GBP of 1.25:1 £20bn future cash flow from Engines RRSPs6 6#8←N> GKN AEROSPACE Aerospace overview: two market-leading divisions. Customers Technology End market 2023 operating margin Engines www. Engine OEMs 74% civil, 26% defence AND Structural engineered components; parts repair; commercial and aftermarket contracts Raised to 24% VDAVMAS VOAVNO TECL Structures Airframe OEMs Lightweight composite and metallic structures; electrical distribution systems; components 67% civil, 33% defence On track for 3% ARBUS Engines outperformed in H1 and guidance raised for full year New target of >30% post 2025 announced 7#9←N> GKN AEROSPACE Aerospace overview: 2025 targets significantly underpinned Engines Differentiated technology IP, growing aftermarket and RRSPS entering 'sweet spot' £1.8bn revenue £580m EBITDA £500m operating profit 28% operating margin 2023 2025 revenue CAGR¹ 11% £4.0bn revenue £870m EBITDA £700m operating profit 17-18% operating margin 1. Adjusted for c.£150 million of Structures revenue exited from planned site closure Structures Deep design and manufacturing capability; embedded OEM positions £2.2bn revenue £290m EBITDA £200m operating profit 9% operating margin Engines generates >70% of Aerospace profits in 2025 2023 2025 operating profit CAGR 36% 8#10<N> GKN AEROSPACE Exceptional engines business GKN components power 90% of all global flights ¹ 17 out of 19 RRSPs in aftermarket 'sweet spot' 1. GKN content on ~90% of civil aircraft engines 2. Based on flying hours for aircraft with over 100 passengers Target margins >30% post 2025 RRSP contracts cover * 70% * of all global flights ² First supplier of additive fabrication in serial production Only global player on both next-gen programmes 9#11(N) GKN AEROSPACE Unique position in the value chain as strategic partner to the OEMs OEM customers Strategic partners ¹ PRAITNEY DEPENDABLE ENGINES &GE Aerospace S SAFRAN ROLLS R Rolls-Royce ROYCE Commercial suppliers 100+ 1. Examples of companies in this segment GN GKN AEROSPACE MTU Aero Engines ITP Aero IHI Forging / casting houses¹ PCC structurals, Inc. AEROSPACE *ATI OEM customer / strategic partners OEMs need strategic partners to develop and fund new programmes Strategic partners contribute design, technology, risk sharing and financing Only a handful of such partners exist Higher margins due to aftermarket access Commercial suppliers Commercial suppliers contribute with capacity and process know-how > Competitive environment with lower margins Hundreds of players in commoditised segments Forging / casting houses Few large players with strong position Typically higher margins Challenging quality and delivery as industry recovers and ramps up 10 High barrier of entry to become a strategic partner#12(N) GKN AEROSPACE 1 2 3 Key messages OEM-level capability RRSPs portfolio with all major engine OEMs Proprietary GKN breakthrough technologies Exclusive supplier of military engines to Swedish government for over 90 years Integrated design understanding across full engine system Portfolio entering 'sweet spot' of highly profitable aftermarket phase GKN designed parts typically last full life of engine resulting in exceptional margins > Decades of predictable cash flow with total forecast inflow of £20 billion ¹ Additive fabrication entering serial production with potential to displace large forging and casting over time Only global player currently involved in both next-generation engine programmes 11 Ahead of schedule to deliver 28% margin in 2025 and >30% beyond 1. Forecast (undiscounted) pre-tax future cash flow from 19 RRSP engines contracts (based on OEM projections) and using a foreign exchange rate of USD:GBP of 1.25:1#13<N> GKN AEROSPACE 1 2 3 Exceptional business attributes OEM-level capability RRSPs portfolio with all major engine OEMs Proprietary GKN breakthrough technologies Barrier to entry Structurally growing demand Diversified, established position Defensible technical advantage, IP Strong customer pull Long-term relevance 30yrs+ 12#14(N) GKN AEROSPACE 1 2 3 Unique value proposition OEM-level capability RRSPs portfolio with all major engine OEMs Proprietary GKN breakthrough technologies 1. Based on aircraft with over 100 passengers A A A V A Defence knowledge transfers to civil Full systems understanding helps customers. Integration knowledge improves GKN parts performance Surge in aftermarket demand/profit coincides with our RRSPs hitting 'sweet spot' Compelling economics and returns lasting over 30 years Diversified portfolio covering 70% of all global flying hours ¹ 13 Huge OEM interest and value from additive fabrication as it addresses forging and casting bottleneck Gains position on next-generation engine RRSPS Positions GKN to play meaningful and rewarding role in future sustainable aviation#15<N> GKN AEROSPACE Multiple business models provide a balanced Engines portfolio Sales 55% Civil RRSP partnerships Provides entitlement to aftermarket revenue and profit Original equipment + Aftermarket Sales 10% Government partnerships Unique, system-level capability Original equipment + Aftermarket Repairs Sales 10% Significant growth opportunity Aftermarket 14 Sales 25% Commercial contracts. A balanced business with strong foundation as a strategic partner Balances profile of portfolio and supports partnerships' focus Original equipment#16KN GKN AEROSPACE ▶▶ RRSPs: portfolio and mechanics MER 7 CRED VOA VDA#17<N> GKN AEROSPACE RRSPs: strong aftermarket demand + Flying hours above pre-pandemic levels and structurally growing + OEM new build rates constrained by supply chain with record order backlogs + Legacy aircraft working for longer, requiring ongoing aftermarket support + Shop visits and LLP1 replacements forecast to grow over next 5+ years + MRO shop capacity strained and requiring growth investment - supply/demand dynamic and inflation drives higher pricing 1. LLP Life-limited parts Mature RRSP aftermarket dynamic is positive for GKN Engines 16#18<N> GKN AEROSPACE RRSPs: engine lifecycle ¹ 1 Entry into service OEM decision to Programme invest launch Technology development 7 years - Market requirements - New methods - New materials - Airframe integration - Engine specification Light investment Product development 7 years - Define engine - Meet requirements - Validation - programmes Certification programmes Heavy investment OE production 15 years 1. Slide shows a typical RRSP lifecycle 2. Remaining two RRSPS reach cash generation phase in next five years - Produce engine - Improve engine Production ends Turns cash positive Aftermarket services 30 years - Fleet management - Engine upgrades - Overhaul - Repair High profit and cash 17 of 19 RRSPs already in cash generation phase² 17#19<N> GKN AEROSPACE RRSPs: GKN unique portfolio Light investment CFMI RISE P&W GTF next-gen Heavy investment Only global player on both next-gen programmes Turns cash positive PW 1500G/1900G PW 1100G-JM Fundamentally excellent engine platform with issues being addressed High profit and cash GEnx Trent XWB Widebody in strong position as long-haul traffic recovers CFM56 V2500 >90% of future cash flows from the top 6 programmes Only RRSP partner on both key mature narrowbody engines 18#20←N> GKN AEROSPACE RRSPs: unique portfolio and position Structural demand increase Engines in aftermarket 'sweet spot' Volume Price Scope Aftermarket >2019 levels in 2023; strong structural growth thereafter GKN parts typically last life of engine Returns OE Aftermarket Exceptional profitability Share of programme aftermarket profit GKN support and overhead Exceptional margin % Time Light investment Next-gen x 2 £m 750 650 550 450 350 250 150 50 -50 Unusual harvesting period Actual ■Forecast Heavy investment 1980 1983 1986 1989 1992 Decades-long cash mountain Turns cash positive 1995 1998 2001 19 x RRSPs High profit and cash £20bn 19 2004 2007 2010 2013 2016 2019 2022 2025 2028 2031 2034 2037 2040 2043 2046 2049 2052 2055 2058#21<N> GKN AEROSPACE RRSPs: aftermarket mechanics Aftermarket flows Illustrative example of programme partners with 5% share GKN: OEM parts typically last life of engine; limited aftermarket work 5% share of programme aftermarket profit¹ GKN support and overhead Exceptional margin % Partner X: supplies OEM parts that need aftermarket replacement 5% share of programme aftermarket profit¹ In-house support and overhead L + + Strong margin % Supply of replacement parts Cost of goods sold GKN has less RRSP aftermarket revenue than equivalent share partners, but structurally higher margin (%) 1. Programme profit recognised in revenue as income from RRSP contract 20#22←N> GKN AEROSPACE £m 750 650 550 450 350 250 150 50 -50 RRSPS: cash mountain Actual GKN Engines RRSP net cash inflow ¹ 1. 2. ■OE delivery forecast² ~ 3 ■AM current fleet forecast³ ■AM delivery forecast4 Significant upturn in cash flow underway 1980 1982 1984 1986 1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006 2008 2010 2012 2014 2016 2018 2020 2022 2024 2026 2028 2030 2032 2034 2036 2038 2040 2042 2044 2046 2048 2050 2052 2054 2056 2058 2060 Net present values of future expected cash flow 5 £5.5bn Pre-tax Original equipment (OE) delivery forecast represents the OE sale of expected future engine deliveries on current programmes 3. Aftermarket (AM) current fleet forecast includes AM on delivered engines Calculated using industry forecasts with conservative assumptions 21 > 17 programmes now in cash generation phase; remaining two programmes turn cash positive in next five years > Cash and profits now rising as engines are in profitable aftermarket phase > GKN parts typically last life-of-the- programme, limited future cost of sales after engine is sold Expecting to invest up to 10% of NPV in next generation of engines, no significant funding before 2030 > Our RRSP share is recorded as revenue with minimal costs in aftermarket phase, leading to higher margins over time > Maturity of our programmes means that commercial, technology and warranty risk has reduced and continues to do so over time > GKN expecting to invest in next-generation engines (e.g. CFM RISE and next-gen GTF); investment and returns not modelled 4. Aftermarket (AM) delivery forecast represents associated AM of expected future engine deliveries on current programmes 5. Calculation as per Capital Markets Event on 17 May 2023. Using a foreign exchange rate of USD GBP of 1.25:1 and calculated using a discount rate of 7.5% which is between a debt related discount rate and a GKN Aerospace pre-tax weighted average cost of capital#23KN ▶▶ GKN AEROSPACE Financial trajectory 7 OOO VOA VDA#24<N> GKN AEROSPACE 2023 Engines revenue Multipronged strategy to deliver full business potential Governmental partnerships Repairs Commercial contracts £1.3bn Civil RRSP partnerships 24% operating margin 1 RRSP market growth 2 Growth initiatives 17% sales CAGR to 2025 3 Business improvement 2025 Engines revenue Repairs Commercial contracts Governmental partnerships £1.8bn 28% operating margin Industry-leading Engines division positioned to achieve exceptional growth 23 Civil RRSP partnerships#25(N) GKN AEROSPACE On track for 28% operating margin in 2025, over 30% beyond Operating margin % 2023 upgrade Full-year revenue 24% 22% 2023 £1.3bn ~4% RRSP market growth 1 ~1% Growth initiatives 2 ~1% Business improvement 3 28% 2025 £1.8bn 2% + Further improvement 4 30% + beyond 1 2 3 4 RRSP portfolio continues to mature and is entering highly profitable aftermarket phase. Revenue from repair business doubles, contributing to significant increase in profit Remaining restructuring and operational excellence programmes finalised 24 Further improvement beyond 2025, primarily driven by aftermarket Strong Engines margin to become industry-leading#26(N) GKN AEROSPACE Clear momentum to achieve margin targets Operating margin % Gap to target narrowed by a third 22% Original 2023 28% ENLLA Reinforced 2025 ~2% 2023 outperformance Drivers for upgrade 24% -4% Upgraded 2023 Gap to 2025 Strong aftermarket performance Restructuring benefits ahead of schedule. Operating margin % Strong trajectory on margin expansion 18% 2019 4% 2020 16% 2021 -8% 24% 2023 -4% 28% 2025 25 Margin higher than 2019, with recovery from COVID-19 impact -4% further improvement to 2025 target, equivalent to only ~2% per annum#27KN ▶▶ GKN AEROSPACE GTF 7 OOO VOA VDA#28(N) GKN AEROSPACE GTF situation overview Situation GKN Engines has long-standing positive relationship with P&W and RRSP partners through multiple engines including highly successful V2500 GTF is fundamentally an excellent engine with leading architecture and fuel economy, plus a long order backlog GTF has early service learnings that are typical of engines in this stage of lifecycle, however, time on wing better than V2500 at this point in the programme lifecycle Main legacy issue is around durability in harsh operating environments, and this is addressed through Block D upgrades which are now incorporated in both MRO upgrades and new engine deliveries Current issue relates to P&W manufacturing process problem with some powdered metal production between Q4 2015 and Q3 2021 Global fleet management plan created by P&W to inspect GTFs that are potentially impacted - cost of required work estimated by P&W at c.US$1.5 billion over four years Current MRO capacity and spare parts availability will result in significant queue times while aircraft waiting on ground for required work – resulting customer compensation estimated by P&W at US$4.5 - US$5.5 billion GTF remains well positioned to sustain its position as engine of choice on longer-range A320 fleet in years ahead Fundamentally excellent engine, issues being resolved 27#29(N) N> GKN AEROSPACE GTF implications Melrose impact GKN has 4% share on PW1100G Based on RTX guidance potential cash cost to Melrose is c.£200 million, but it should not be assumed these are all programme costs GKN has conservative assumptions on GTF performance given its early stage of lifecycle and positive cash contribution never expected before 2027 Therefore, no change needed to Melrose profit or balance sheet guidance Market consequences MRO shop capacity and spare parts challenges Legacy engines fly longer with potentially additional 'life extending' shop visits Increase demand for aftermarket services and parts on legacy engines Industry-wide pricing increases likely for aftermarket given supply and demand issues 28 No change to profit or balance sheet guidance required due to conservative accounting policies This unchanged guidance excludes any potentially positive impacts from the likely market consequences described above#30←N> GKN AEROSPACE Architecture for the future Geared turbofan > Ultra-efficient, light-weight, low-speed fan > Low pressure compressor and low pressure turbine speed optimised Conventional turbofan > Fan speed constrained by low pressure spool > Low pressure compressor and low pressure turbine speed constrained by fan 1. 17% lower fuel burn than predecessor SAF = Sustainable Aviation Fuel 0100 75% Gear 3 stage low pressure compressor 3 stage low pressure compressor reduced noise footprint 8 stage high pressure compressor 2 stage high pressure turbine 10 stage high pressure compressor P 100% 3 stage low pressure turbine 2 stage high pressure turbine 7 stage low pressure turbine compatible with SAF1 29#31(N) N> GKN AEROSPACE GKN Aerospace RRSP content on GTF UM Fan spacer LP shaft Fan case mount ring • Firewall Intermediate case Turbine exhaust case GKN makes structural components that last life of engine 4% share on PW1100G, 7% share on PW 1500G/PW 1900G PW 1500G/ PW 1900G (24k) ✓ √ √ √ √ V PW 1100G (30k) V ✓ ✓ 30#32<N> GKN AEROSPACE PW 1100G evolution Block D - key improvements to date Hot section durability Expanded rotating part lives External component reliability Oil system sealing Durability focused improvements GTF Advantage Greater capability Advanced hot section Reduced operating temperature Seamless integration Future higher thrust variant Current deliveries and MRO upgrades incorporate Block D configuration 31#33<N> GKN AEROSPACE Number of engines 16,000 14,000 12,000 10,000 8,000 6,000 4,000 2,000 0 PW 1100G engine outlook In service & in storage Order book Block D & beyond Source: AW IN, Airbus Global Market Forecast with share estimates Forecast Total Extremely strong demand for GTF engines 32 >15,000 engines expected, majority of which will be GTF Advantage engine Market leading fuel efficiency makes GTF valuable, especially for longer range A320 usage and A321XLR

Download to PowerPoint

Download presentation as an editable powerpoint.

Related

ILPT Q2 2023 Financial Results image

ILPT Q2 2023 Financial Results

Industrials

Investor Presentation September 2023 image

Investor Presentation September 2023

Real Estate

Strategic Expansion in the Resilient Data Centre Segment image

Strategic Expansion in the Resilient Data Centre Segment

Real Estate

Economic Impact of NOS4A2 in Rhode Island image

Economic Impact of NOS4A2 in Rhode Island

Television & Film Industry

Strategic Entry into Japan's Data Centre Market image

Strategic Entry into Japan's Data Centre Market

Industrials

GIDC Gujarat Industrial Development image

GIDC Gujarat Industrial Development

Industrials

WF Hebei Wenfeng Industrial Co. Corporate Presentation image

WF Hebei Wenfeng Industrial Co. Corporate Presentation

Financial

Dadra & Nagar Haveli Industrial Policy Pitch image

Dadra & Nagar Haveli Industrial Policy Pitch

Financial