#1The Mosaic Company Modeling with New Disclosures Linking Price & Drivers to Financial Results For questions contact: Investor Relations @Mosaic Co.com Date: March 29, 2021 Mosaic#2Forward Looking Statements & Non-GAAP Financial Measures This document contains forward-looking statements within the meaning of the Private Securities Litigation Refom Act of 1995. Such statements include, but are not limited to, statements about proposed or pending future transactions or strategic plans and other statements about future financial and operating results. Such statements are based upon the current beliefs and expectations of The Mosaic Company's management and are subject to significant risks and uncertainties. The se risks and uncertainties include, but are not limited to: the economic impact and operating impacts of the Covid-19 pandemic, the potential drop in oil dem and / production and its impact on the availability and price of sulfur, political and economic in stability in Brazil or changes in govemment policy in Brazil, such as higher costs associated with the new mining rules or the implementation of new freight tables; the predictability and volatility of, and customer expectations about, agriculture, fertilizer, raw material, energy and transportation markets that are subject to competitive and other pressures and economic and credit market conditions; the level of inventories in the distribution channels for crop nutrients; the effect of future product innovations or development of new technologies on demand for our products; changes in foreign currency and exchange rates; international trade risks and other risks associated with Mosaic's international operations and those of joint ventures in which Mosaic participates, including the perfomance of the Wa'ad Al Shamal Phosphate Company (also known as MWSPC), the timely development and commencement of operations of production facilities in the Kingdom of Saudi Arabia, and the future success of current plans for MWSPC and any future changes in those plans; the risk that protests against natural resource companies in Peru extend to or impact the Miski Mayo mine, which is operated by an entity in which we are the majority owner; difficulties with realization of the benefits of our long term natural gas based pricing ammonia supply agreement with CF Industries, Inc., including the risk that the cost savings initially anticipated from the agreement may not be fully realized over its tem or that the price of natural gas or ammonia during the tem are at levels at which the pricing is disadvantageous to Mosaic; customer defaults; the effects of Mosaic's decisions to exit business operations or locations; changes in government policy; changes in environmental and other governmental regulation, including expansion of the types and extent of water resources regulated under federal law, carbon taxes or other greenhouse gas regulation, implementation of numeric water quality standards for the discharge of nutrients into Florida waterways or efforts to reduce the flow of excess nutrients into the Mississippi River basin, the Gulf of Mexico or elsewhere; further developments in judicial or administrative proceedings, or complaints that Mosaic's operations are adversely impacting nearby farms, business operations or properties; difficulties or delays in receiving, increased costs of or challenges to necessary governmental permits or approvals or increased financial assurance requirements; resolution of global tax audit activity; the effectiveness of Mosaic's processes for managing its strategic priorities; adverse weather conditions affecting operations in Central Florida, the Mississippi River basin, the Gulf Coast of the United States, Canada or Brazil, and including potential hurricanes, excess heat, cold, snow, rainfall or drought; actual costs of various items differing from management's current estimates, including, among others, asset retirement, environmental remediation, reclamation or other environmental regulation, Canadian resources taxes and royalties, or the costs of the MWSPC; reduction of Mosaic's available cash and liquidity, and increased leverage, due to its use of cash and/or available debt capacity to fund financial assurance requirements and strategic investments; brine inflows at Mosaic's Esterhazy, Saskatchewan, potash mine or other potash shaft mines; other accidents and disruptions involving Mosaic's operations, including potential mine fires, floods, explosions, seismic events, sinkholes or releases of hazardous or volatile chemicals; and risks associated with cyber security, including reputational loss; as well as other risks and uncertainties reported from time to time in The Mosaic Company's reports filed with the Securities and Exchange Commission. Actual results may differ from those set forth in the forward-looking statements. The Company does not undertake any duty to publicly update any forward-looking statements. NON-GAAP FINANCIAL MEASURES This document includes the presentation and discussion of non-GAAP diluted net earnings per share guidance, or adjusted EPS, non-GAAP depreciation, depletion and amortization, and non-GAAP adjusted EBITDA, referred to as non-GAAP financial measures. Generally, a non-GAAP financial measure is a supplemental numerical measure of a company's performance, financial position or cash flows that either excludes or includes amounts that are not normally excluded or included in the most directly comparable measure calculated and presented in accordance with U.S. generally accepted accounting principles, or GAAP. Non-GAAP financial measures should not be considered as substitutes for, or superior to, measures of financial performance prepared in accordance with GAAP. In addition, because non-GAAP measures are not detemined in accordance with GAAP, they are thus su sceptible to varying interpretations and calculations and may not be comparable to other similarly titled measures of other companies. Adjusted metrics, including adjusted EPS, adjusted gross margin, and adjusted EBITDA are calculated by excluding the impact of notable items from the GAAP measure. Notable items impact on gross margin and EBITDA is pretax. Notable items impact on diluted net earnings per share is calculated as the notable item amount plus income tax effect, based on expected annual effective tax rate, divided by diluted weighted average shares. Management believes that these adjusted measures provide securities analysts, investors, management and others with useful supplemental information regarding our performance by excluding certain items that may not be indicative of, or are unrelated to, our core operating results. Management utilizes the se adjusted measures in analyzing and assessing Mosaic's overall performance and financial trends, for financial and operating decision-making, and to forecast and plan for future periods. These adjusted measures also assist our management in comparing our and our competitors' operating results. We are not providing forward looking guidance for U.S. GAAP reported diluted net earnings per share, gross margin per tonne, or a quantitative reconciliation of forward- looking adjusted EPS, adjusted gross margin and adjusted EBIT DA because we are unable to predict with reasonable certainty our notable items without un reasonable effort. Historically, our notable items have included, but are not limited to, foreign currency transaction gain or loss, un realized gain or loss on derivatives, acquisition-related fees, discrete tax items, contingencies and certain other gains or losses. The se items are uncertain, depend on various factors, and could have a material impact on U.S. GAAP reported results for the guidance period. Reconciliations for Non-GAAP financial measures contained in this press release are found below. Reconciliations for current and 7 historical periods for consolidated adjusted EPS and adjusted EBITDA, as well as segment adjusted EBITDA and adjusted gross margin per tonne are provided in the Selected Calendar Quarter Financial Infomation performance data for the related periods. This infomation is being furnished under Exhibit 99.2 of the Form 8-K and available on our website at www.mosaicco.com in the "Financial Infomation - Quarterly Earnings" section under the "Investors" tab. Mosaic 2#3Contents ● ● ● Overview of Approach Sensitivities Based on Prior Year Actuals Managing Quarterly Expectations. Potash Segment Phosphate Segment Mosaic Fertilizantes Corporate & Other Mosaic 3#4Overview of Approach At their simplest, the fundamental drivers of our financial performance are volumes, prices, and costs. Complexities arise primarily in understanding the delay between the market prices you see and prices realized in our financial results. For revenues, sales may be priced a quarter before the product is delivered, depending upon the season and depth of order book. For raw material costs, purchases go through raw material inventory, are used in production, then realized when the product is delivered. Again, this could result in a delay of a quarter or more, depending upon the season, depth of order book and length of raw material inventory. ● ● Costs, excluding raw materials, are over 80% fixed in our production businesses, and our long-term operating targets can help you identify how we are driving our cost trends beyond the current year. In addition, our disclosures include: 1. Market Price Drivers ● ● 2. Cost Drivers (excluding raw materials of sulfur and ammonia) Known changes to the base costs of the prior year Published and tracked progress toward multi-year targets Costs estimates necessary to reconcile adjusted EBITDA to adjusted EPS ● ● ● Sensitivity of our earnings to changes in P and K price for all segments Historical data by product and geographic mix, to help you align to market prices Historical detail on raw material sourcing for phosphates, to help you assign appropriate costs 3. Volume Drivers Mosaic's expectations for global shipments by country. In normal periods, we would expect our volumes to reflect overall market growth. Volumes can be constrained by production capacity, and we will continue to disclose our operating capacity. ● ● Mosaic 4#5Understanding the lag between market pricing and financial results For Finished Products Customer agrees to transaction For Raw Materials Order is planned for production or shipment from inventory Time lines varies with finished goods inventory levels, seasonality and logistics tim ing. Raw material is purchased Raw material delivered into inventory Product delivered to customer and recognized Raw material from inventory used in production Production held in finished goods inventory Product delivered to customer and recognized The company generally holds 20 days of ammonia and 35 days of sulfur inventory. However, Covid-19 impacts on oil refining has resulted in lower sulfur inventory in 2020, -30 days. Mosaic LO 5#6Sensitivities using 2020 Cost Structure Based on 2020 Actuals Adjusted EBITDA (1) Sensitivity Average MOP Price / tonne (fob mine) Average DAP Price / tonne (fob plant) Average BRL/USD Average CAD/USD ■ I $1.56 bn ● Full year adj. EBITDA impact $10/mt price change = $65 million (2) $10/ mt price change = $105 million $0.10 change, unhedged = $13 million $0.01 change, unhedged = $13 million Based on 2020 conversion costs The EBITDA sensitivity to average MOP and DAP price/tonne includes Mosaic Fertilizantes -5% of the average MOP price per tonne impact to EBITDA relates to Mosaic Fertilizantes ~20% of the average DAP price per tonne impact to EBITDA relates to Mosaic Fertilizantes ~80% of Potash cash costs were fixed, excluding brine and CRT ~87% of Phosphates cash conversion costs were fixed (1) See Non-GAAP Financial Measures for additional information (2) Includes impact of CRT, which is expected to average 20-24% of Gross Margin excluding CRT in 2021, and 35% on a marginal basis 2020 Actuals $181 $310 5.15 1.35 Mosaic 6#7Mosaic's Posted Price Dashboard Link to Investor Market Education Historical Pricing Trends Mosaic Phosphate DAP MAP Potash Granular MOP Standard MOP Urea Granular Urea Market Average ¹ Tampa NOLA CFL Morocco Saudi Arabia China India C&F Brazil C&F NOLA NOLA Corn Belt Brazil C&F SE Asia C&F NOLA Brazil Publication Date: Mar 25, 2021 High Average Low 585 537 550 540 500 554 515 613 564 312 343 322 267 370 399 Raw Materials Phosphate Rock Morocco Ammonia - Contract Tampa C&F Sulphur - Contract Tampa C&F High-Analysis Phosphate Global Net Price² 86 545 96 586 543 550 552 560 559 521 627 575 318 357 333 281 405 412 105 545 96 585 540 550 546 530 556 518 620 570 315 350 328 274 388 406 96 545 96 389 Average vs. Prev Wk 585 539 549 522 522 558 496 625 582 316 351 313 270 382 409 96 445 96 Week Ending March 26th, 2021 399 Prev Yr 309 271 305 306 305 307 316 318 277 208 248 226 258 249 248 71 250 36 227 Weekly Change UOM $/MT $/ST $/ST $/MT $/MT $/MT $/MT $/MT $/ST $/ST $/ST $/MT $/MT $/ST $/MT $/MT $/MT S/LT $/MT 7#8Phosphates Potash Mosaic Fertilizantes Operating Driver Targets Cash cost of U.S. mined rock ($/tonne) Cash costs of conversion ($/tonne) Cash costs of production (excluding brine) - MOP ($/tonne) Cash brine management costs ($ in millions) Cash costs of rock (R$/tonne) Cash costs of conversion - Phosphates (R$/tonne) Total Selling, General & Administrative Expenses ($ in millions) Sales of Performance Products (in millions) (1) Includes volumes of K-Mag, Aspire, Microessentials and Sus-terra. 2018 actual $38 $63 $66 $123 R$ 346 R$265 $341 2019 actual $41 $65 $74 $101 R$ 331 R$ 321 $354 2020 actual $37 $62 $56 $73 R$331 R$313 $372 4.0 2023 target $34 $51 $49 $0 R$315 R$291 $340 5.2 Mosaic 8#9Sales Volumes Ranges 12.0 10.0 8.0 * 6.0 * Potash Volumes 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Range: 7.8 9.4 million tonnes Ops Capacity: 9.7 million tonnes * 12.0 10.0 8.0 6.0 Phosphates Volumes |||| 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 Range: 8.1 9.8 million tonnes Ops Capacity: 9.9 million tonnes 12.0 10.0 8.0 6.0 Mosaic Fert Volumes 2014 2015 2016 2017 III Potash operating capacity excludes Colonsay and includes K3 starting with year-end 2019. Phosphates volumes reflect the curtailment of Plant City production beginning with 2018. * Mosaic Fert total capacity includes distribution and production capacity. 2018 2019 2020 Three-year Ave: 9.6 million tonnes Phosphate and potash sales volumes are expected to be constrained by operational capacity, as inventories going into 2021 are limited. Total Capacity: 12 million tonnes Mosaic 9#10Additional 2021 Modeling Assistance Estimated reconciling items EBITDA to EPS Adjusted Depreciation, Depletion & Amortization Net Interest Expense Non-Notable Adjustments Effective Tax Rate Capital Expenditure Expectations Sustaining Capital Growth Capital Total Capital Expenditure Estimate (1) See Non-GAAP Financial Measures for additional information $ in millions $910-$920 $180 - $190 $80 - $90 Mid 20's% $ in billions $0.75 - $0.80 $0.30 - $0.35 ~$1.10 Mosaic 10#11By Segment Considerations#12Potash ■ ■ ■ 1.60 1.50 1.40 1.30 1.20 1.10 1.00 0.90 Product mix: Standard product is the primary product sold under China and Indian contracts. Granular product is the primary product sold into North America and Brazil. Granular product is generally priced at a premium to standard, covering the slightly higher costs associated with the granulation process. In the short term, 80% of cash production costs are fixed. On average, Canadian Resource Taxes can be estimated by applying the rate of 20 to 24 percent of GM excluding CRT. Tonnes sold through Canpotexare priced net, with Canpotex responsible for transportation costs. Ergo, Canpotex revenues reflect net pricing. Tonnes sold in North America are priced delivered and both revenues and COGS include transport costs. Market vs. Realized MOP Prices ● ● ● Jan 17 Jul 17 Jan 18 Jul 18 Brazil CNF Index Jan 19 Jul 19 Realized Price Index Jan 20 Jul 20 Based on 2019 and 2020 monthly averages: Logistics costs / tonne = $78 N.A.; $83 Export ● ● Days lag pricing to revenue recognition: Average = 50 Range 25 to 75 ● Lag varies with seasonality and sentiment. The pace of buying and delivery increases when prices are rising. Fixed price contracts for China and India dampen correlations. Export logistics costs are not included in Mosaic's COGS or revenues. Mosaic 12#13Phosphates finished products ■ ■ Product mix DAP/MAP product relative prices can vary based on geographic supply / demand considerations. India is primarily a DAP market, while Brazil is primarily a MAP market. Micro Essentials is a MAP based product, with finished product prices closely tied to MAP prices. The company has significant flexibly in the manufacturing mix between MAP, DAP and MicroEssentials In the short term, 87% of cash conversion costs are fixed. ● ● Relative Product costs DAP contains more ammonia than MAP. On average, Mosaic uses .18 tonnes of NH3 per tonne of finished product. MAP contains more phosphoric acid, generally 52% P₂O5 vs. 46% for DAP. 2 MicroEssentials contains less phosphoric acid, averaging 41% depending upon the product mix, but contains incremental micronutrients. All product revenues are based on delivered prices, and both revenues and COGS include transport costs. Market vs. Realized DAP prices ● ● 1.40 1.30 1.20 1.10 1.00 0.90 0.80 0.70 Jan 17 Jul 17 Jan 18 Jul 18 Realized Price Index Jan 19 Jul 19 Jan 20 NOLA Barge Price Index Jul 20 Based on 2019 and 2020 monthly averages: Logistics costs / tonne = $42, fairly stable Days lag pricing to revenue recognition: Average = 38 Range 20 to 55 ● ● ● ● Lag varies with seasonality and sentiment. The pace of buying and delivery increases when prices are rising. Mosaic 13#14Phosphates ammonial ■ ▪ Ammonia is used to granulate phosphate products used in agriculture (DAP, MAP, & MicroEssentials) The Company has three sources of ammonia: 1. Contract with CF Industries for a minimum of 540,000 tonnes and maximum of 720,000 tonnes annually, and up for renewal in 2025 These tonnes are generally taken pro rata through the year, and changes in volumes taken under the contract require a 90 day notice. Contract pricing includes a capital charge component. The company views this contract as a hedge. 2. Manufactured ammonia from Faustina, with an annual capacity of approximately 450,000 tonnes. This is the company's lowest cost source of ammonia, generally 40 mm BTU's of natural gas plus $70 / tonne of ammonia conversion costs, including ~$10 / tonne of depreciation. 3. Spot purchases to supplement the above sources. — The company averages 20 days of storage capacity for ammonia at the port and chemical plants. Ammonia is primarily transported from the port to the plants via pipeline. ● Market prices to benchmark should align to Port of Tampa delivered prices. Incremental transportation and storage costs are as follows: To get CF ammonia, or manufactured ammonia, from Louisiana to the port of Tampa is estimated to be $35/ tonne of ammonia. Incremental storage costs and transport from the port to the chemical plants is estimated to be - $35/ tonne of ammonia. ● Ammonia Pricing to Receipt (~20 days) Raw Material inventory (~20 days) 2 Finished Goods inventory (~42 days) Total days Pricing -> Realized (~82 days) Mosaic 14#15Phosphates sulfur The company uses sulfur to create sulfuric acid. The process is exothermic, and cogenerates electricity for the company's chemical plants and phosphate mines. The sulfuric acid is used to create phosphoric acid from the phosphate rock. At the plant, it takes approximately 1 tonne of sulfur and 3.6 tonnes phosphate rock to create 1 tonne of phosphoric acid. The company uses two sources of sulfur, molten and prilled. The company can take molten sulfur directly from gulf refineries and transportit cross gulf in special barges, then to the chemical plants in specially designed trucks. The molten sulfur must be heated to be kept in the liquid state. ● ● It takes ~.46 tonnes of phosphoric acid to create a tonne of DAP, ~.52 tonnes to create a tonne of MAP, and averages ~.38 tonnes to create a tonne of Micro Essentials. Prilled sulfur is delivered in the solid form, then melted for use. Because of the energy used to transform it to molten sulfur, the costs are about $50/tonne higher than molten by the time it is used in production, but may vary depending on the cost differential between prilled and molten. The company uses 10 - 20 percent prilled sulfur, depending upon availability of molten sulfur. The company has storage capacity for ~35 days of production for molten sulfur at the port and chemical plants, and ~15 days of prilled, however the company only used 10 to 20 percent prilled in production. In 2021, the company does not expect to use full storage capacity for sulfur due to the impact of Covid-19 on oil refining. If there is no need for use of prilled, the realization of prilled sulfur cost may be even further delayed, as the company can easily store solid sulfur. ● ● The market price benchmark for sulfur reflects the molten, delivered Tampa price. By the time it is realized in COGS, there is an additional $25 - $30/tonne cost of logistics. Sulfur Pricing to Receipt (~50 days) Raw material inventory (~30 days) Finished Goods Inventory (~42 days) Total days Pricing -> Realized (122 days) Mosaic 15#16Mosaic Fertilizantes finished product production. I I ■ I ■ ■ ■ ■ 1.30 1.20 1.10 1.00 0.90 0.80 0.70 0.60 Mosaic refers to this portion of Mosaic Fertilizantes as the B2B business The costs in this business are primarily BRL based, with 20% in USD related to raw materials of sulfur and ammonia. As a result, the segment is short BRL for months longer than 3 months. Approximately 50% of this exposure is hedged, with the unrealized gain / loss on these hedges flowing through the corporate segment. Once the finished product is priced, with pricing generally tied to the USD price of the global product, the production and distribution businesses combined are actually long BRL in the short term, and the company hedges netcash proceeds into USD. In 2020, the business had approximately R$4 billion in costs subject to local currency inflation, with reported 2020 IPCA inflation (the best proxy) at 4.5%. Mosaic Fertilizantes produces several phosphates products that generally trade relative to MAP prices. General ratios are: TSP = 80% MAP; SSP = 40% MAP Mosaic Fertilizantes also sells other products like animal feed, phosphoric acid, sulfuric acid and sulfur, as well as co products like gypsum. Our disclosures include produced volumes, which are typically recognized as sales on a one quarter lag. Only MAP uses ammonia, so the ammonia volumes used in production are significantly less than Mosaic's Florida phosphate operation. We also include MAP delivered prices to third parties in our performance data, to help track B2B realized sales price vs. market prices. Mosaic Fertilizantes produced potash is generally sold to the local market (near the mine). Of the phosphate tonnes produced in Brazil, approximately 20 percent are sold through the distribution business in Brazil. As we send fewer tonnes from Florida, this is expected to increase in 2021, to around 25 percent. Market vs Realized Prices Jan-18 Jul-18 - Jan-19 MAP cfr Brazil index Jul-19 Jan-20 MAP Realized Price Index Jul-20 Based on 2019 and 2020 monthly averages: Mosaic priced MAP on a delivered basis, inclusive of transportation costs from the plant to the customer. The chart shows realized pricing lagging market price, similar to Florida DAP Days lag pricing to revenue recognition: Average = 45 Lag varies with seasonality and sentiment. The pace of buying and delivery increases when prices are rising. Mosaic 16#17Mosaic Fertilizantes distribution ■ ■ ■ ■ ■ Mosaic refers to this portion of Mosaic Fertilizantes as the B2C business. Costs and finished product are generally tied to the USD price of the global product. However, with margins, the business is actually long BRL in months 0-4, and the company hedges net cash proceeds into USD. ● - After sale of product, where prices are pegged to the USD prices but the company received BRL, the company is long BRL in months 0 through 3. The business's fixed costs consist of warehouses and blending facilities, while variable costs include raw materials of N, P and K granular products and logistics costs. ● On average, 50% of our exposure to BRL changes is hedged in the medium term, with close to 100% hedged in the short- term (our net cash balances). Mosaic's B2C business primarily sells blends, which historically have been comprised of: Phosphates Potash Nitrogen ● 45%; approximately 30% from Brazil production and 70% from North American production. 35%; 100% from Canpotex 20%; from third party suppliers The distribution logistics costs average approximately $60/tonne. The phosphates from North American production includes Micro Essentials, which has higher distribution margins than commodity products. The company targets distribution margins of -$25/tonne on commodities, but margins can be impacted by changes in prices on inventory and product mix. Distribution volumes are closely tied to seasonal volumes in Brazil, with the peak season occurring in the third quarter. Mosaic 17#18There are four primary categories of revenues and expenses you need to understand in this segment 1. Profit in inventory (PII) This offsets intersegment profit before sales to final third party customers. For example: Phosphates segment will recognize sales and profits for Micro Essential products sold through transfer pricing to our Brazil distribution business, but those revenues and profits will be unwound in the corporate segment until that product is sold to independent third parties. 2. 3. Corporate & Other 4. - There is no Pll recorded for intra segment sales from production to distribution within Mosaic Fertilizantes Pll is seasonal, negative when Brazil is building inventory before their seasonal peak in the third quarter, and positive when inventory from intersegment sales is being drawn down. Unallocated SG&A This is primarily corporate functions not directly aligned with segments. 2020 is higher than normal run-rate due to investments in consulting for Supply and North American transformation. Distribution businesses in China and India These businesses sold 2.0 million tonnes of products in 2020, over 60% supplied from Canpotex. We have Pll for Phosphate products and Potash products sold to Mosaic Fertilizantes or our China and India distribution businesses. - Unrealized gain or loss on derivatives in COGS This primarily relates to medium term hedges on BRL, and is excluded from adjusted EBITDA and adjusted EPS. *Other also includes Stream Song in this segment. Mosaic 18#19Demand Growth vs. Mosaic's Volumes Mm tonnes Global K shipments Mosaic tonnes sold Percent share Global P shipments Mosaic tonnes sold (1) Percent share ● 2015 61.7 7.93 12.85 ● 67.6 9.35 13.83 ● 2016 60.8 7.78 12.80 70.3 9.68 13.77 2017 65.0 8.60 13.23 71.6 9.46 13.21 2018 67.0 8.78 13.10 Mosaic expects to be capacity constrained (5) Considerations for 2021 phosphates volumes: Mosaic expects to be capacity constrained. Over time, expect improved efficiencies and recovery rates to increase operating capacity The majority of new greenfield projects have completed their ramp up 72.2 8.39 11.62 (2) (1) Phosphates tonnes sold reflect finished tonnes only. (2) 2018 was the first full-year Plant City phosphates production was idled. (3) Mosaic's weighting in North America meant volumes were significantly impacted by North American weather. (4) Considerations for 2021 potash volumes: 2019 65.2 7.84 12.02 (3) 70.7 8.18 11.57 2020 67.5 9.40 13.92 72.5 8.53 11.76 2021 68.0 - 70.5 Note (4) 76.0 78.0 Note (5) Mosaic 19#20Finished Product Tonnes Phosphates Segment Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Potash Segment Mosaic Fertilizantes Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Distribution of Sales by Quarter 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 23% 25% 26% 26% 20% 26% 28% 26% 19% 21% 33% 28% 24% 27% 22% 26% 23% 25% 26% 26% 18% 22% 34% 26% 23% 28% 27% 22% 19% 27% 28% 26% 17% 20% 39% 23% 22% 27% 27% 25% 24% 28% 30% 19% 17% 23% 37% 24% 22% 26% 24% 27% 20% 27% 24% 28% 20% 24% 34% 22% Average 23% 27% 25% 25% 21% 27% 27% 25% 18% 22% 35% 25% Mosaic 20#21Global Phosphate Shipment Forecasts by Region February 2021 DAP/MAP/NPS*/TSP Mil Tonnes China India Other Asia/Oceania Europe and FSU Brazil Other Latin America North America Other Total 2019 2020E 17.8 18.3 18.4 11.3 9.4 6.6 8.4 3.9 9.8 5.2 72.5 11.4 9.7 7.0 9.7 4.5 9.8 Low High 2021F 2021F 5.2 10.8 10.2 7.1 9.9 4.5 10.0 5.1 75.5 76.0 18.6 11.2 10.4 7.3 10.2 4.8 10.3 5.3 78.0 Comments Source: IFA, CRU and Mosaic (regional figures may not sum to total due to rounding) Domestic phosphate shipments in 2020 increased for the first time in five years, and higher ag commodity prices are expected to spur further grow th in 2021. This reversal removes the largest headw ind to global phosphate shipments. Domestic DA P/MAP production in 2020 declined by nearly 0.4mmt (as per CPFIA data), illustrating the continued structural changes taking place in their industry, w hile CPFIA's producer DA P/MAP inventory figures show ed a drop of nearly 1.1mmt y-o-y at the end of December. DAP/MA P/TSP exports in 2020 w ere nearly 0.8mmt low er y-o-y. Despite the rally in international prices, we expect 2021 export volume to remain constrained, driven in part by a further modest increase in domestic demand. 2020 shipments were revised higher on solid Q4 imports (as well as being rebased higher to include additional NP products). DAP imports ended the year up by nearly 700kt to 6.3mmt, w hile production fell by over 600kt to 4.1mmt. This, along with a strong domestic sales pace pushed total DAP inventories down by ~1.3mmt y-o-y. Looking ahead to 2021, higher international prices and the potential for limited additional subsidy could see MRPs increase sharply and curb demand, and we have low ered our shipment and import forecasts to reflect this. We continue to look for further guidance on the subsidy, w hile farm economics and the monsoon outlook continue to look favorable. Farm economics continue to be conducive to a more meaningful rebound in demand, particularly given the strength of ag commodity prices and generally benign weather. Fertilizer demand, how ever, continues to lag due to continued issues with labor movement restrictions, and we have pared back our demand grow th expectations to reflect this. Shipments in Europe/FSU are expected to continue to see moderate y-o-y grow th in 2021, led by grow th in Russia, w hile demand in the EU is expected to be stable. Dry conditions continue to be monitored in Germany/Poland. Strong imports in Q4 have resulted in a further upward revision to our 2020 shipment estimate. DA P/MA P/NPS/TSP imports were nearly 1mmt higher y-o-y, while channel stocks were little-changed (i.e. higher imports were a demand-pull paradigm). The ag sector continues to be lifted by higher prices and still-w eak FX, and purchasing activity continues to run ahead of historical norms. We expect this robust demand pattern to persist through 2021. Similar to Brazil, favorable farm economics resulted in strong grow th in 2020 (note the rebased figures include additional NP products). Our forecast for 2021 continues to show a slow er, yet still robust demand grow th across most countries. Normal spring and fall weather, increased acreage, low er imports (down -25% y-o-y) and improved farmer balance sheets (in part due to improving crop prices) led to a recovery of on-farm demand in 2020. This strong demand allow ed channel inventories to clear and put availability in the spotlight as the market turned to 2021. The recent rally in ag commodity prices portends strong on-farm demand in 2021 and w ith a depleted channel is expected to necessitate an increase in shipments y-o-y. We have revised our 2020 estimate higher due to the inclusion of additional NP products. Demand grow th is expected to be constrained in 2021 due to higher prices curbing demand, most notably in Africa. Rebased global shipments are estimated to have increased 3.0mmt or 4.2% in 2020, to 75.5mmt. Our forecast range for 2021 is rebased and revised higher to 76-78mmt with a point estimate of 77.3mmt. This represents demand grow th of 2.4% y-o-y. *NPS products included in this analysis are NP and NPS products with a combined N and P2O5 nutrient content of 45 units or greater. 21#22Global Potash Shipment Forecasts by Region February 2021 Muriate of Potash Mil Tonnes KC12. China India Indonesia & Malaysia Other Asia W. Europe E. Europe & FSU Brazil Other L. America North America Other Total 2019 2020 15.8 16.2 4.0 3.9 4.4 4.8 5.8 10.5 2.6 2.8 5.1 63.8 4.1 4.4 4.8 6.0 11.4 9.2 10.1 2.7 2.8 Low High 2021F 2021F 16.1 4.5 4.4 4.6 4.7 6.1 11.7 2.7 2.9 16.4 67.5 68.0 4.8 4.7 4.8 5.0 6.3 12.0 10.2 10.4 3.0 3.1 70.5 Comments Source: IFA, CRU and Mosaic (numbers may not sum to total due to rounding) China MOP imports recovered in H2 2020 and ended the year dow n only 3% y-o-y, while port inventories declined meaningfully in Q4 (and w ere <3.0mmt at the end of January 2021). Strong agricultural fundamentals, boosted by high crop prices, are expected to support potash demand in 2021. We revised our shipment forecast to higher in 2021, with domestic production stable at ~7.5mmt (though sales slightly higher than that) and imports dow n slightly at 8.6mmt (as suppliers may be unw illing to commit large volumes at the C-settled contract price). India MOP imports reached the 2nd highest level in a decade and exceeded 5.0mmt in 2020 (up 24% or 1.0mmt y-o-y), due to an excellent monsoon and kharif season. How ever, a low ersubsidy allocation and expectations of higher MRP (and with P taking a larger share of farmer w allet) may result in low er potash demand this year and greater nutrient use imbalance. We have cautiously revised our forecast low er for ¹21. We expect MOP imports to continue to recover more meaningfully in 2021, driven by the strength of palm oil prices (currently -3900 Rngt/tonne) and generally benign weather. Tight palm oil supply/demand fundamentals continue due to disappointing production (-4% y-o-y in January 2021) and low inventories (-25% y-o-y), particularly in Malaysia. Import demand in the region is estimated to be broadly flat in 2020, versus our previous expectations of moderate grow th. Preliminary trade statistics suggested that higher imports in Vietnam and Thailand were offset by low er imports from Japan and other small markets. Demand prospects in the area remain positive, how ever, and we expect moderate grow th in 2021 on improved farm economics and good weather. Shipments in 2020 appear to have come in slightly ahead of our expectations and we have slightly increased our forecast for 2021. Our estimate/forecast for 2020 and 2021 are unchanged. Russian demand continued to grow, and agricultural expansion there and a few other key markets in the region, coupled with elevated w heat prices, are expected to support higher potash demand in 2021. The strength of the Brazilian market w as exceptional and supported by very favorable farm economics in 2020. The overall fertilizer market is estimated to have grown to 37.8mmt and MOP shipments surged to a record 11.4mmt last year. We expect Brazilian MOP shipments to expand another 4% in 2021 on top of the 8% increase in 2020. Fertilizer sales for both the corn and soybean crops are ahead of last year's pace and we expected strong farm economics, driven by elevated crop prices, to sustain shipment grow th in 2021. Potash demand has yet to recover to its peak level of ~3.1mmt a few years ago, but we continue to expect imports to grow gradually, underpinned by strong agricultural fundamentals. Strong demand continued into Q4 and tight market situation resulted in rising prices and an uptick in offshore imports to bring the full-year total to 1.7mmt, in line with 2019. Positive acreage prospects (90+ million acres of both corn and soybean) in 2021 and strong farm economics are expected to result in healthy demand. We have pared back our estimate for 2020 slightly, w hich has carried through to a slightly low er forecast for 2021. Our estimate of global shipments in 2020 has been revised nearly 2mmt higher on a stronger-than-expected Q4 and other adjustments, representing nearly 6% y-o-y grow th. We expect shipments to increase again in 2021, though at a more moderate 2.2% or 1.5mmt. We have thus increased our 2021 forecast range from 66-68 to 68-70mmt, with a point estimate of 69.0mmt. 22