#1WESTERN RESOURCE ADVOCATES PROTECTING THE WEST'S LAND, AIR & WATER S.B. 254 - REDUCING NEVADA'S GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS Presentation to Joint Meeting of the Senate Committee on Growth and Infrastructure and the Assembly Committee on Growth and Infrastructure Robert G. Johnston Senior Staff Attorney Western Resource Advocates March 12, 2019 1#2Existing Law (NRS 445B.380): • ● Requires Department of Conservation and Natural Resources to issue, at least every 4 years, a report including a statewide inventory of greenhouse gases (GHG) released in Nevada Reports have been issued for 2008 2012 2016 2#3SB 254: Requires annual reports which will include: . Annual Nevada greenhouse gas emissions by economic sector • A 20-year projection of annual Nevada GHG emissions Identification of policies that could achieve reductions in projected Nevada GHG emissions of: 28% by 2025, as compared to the 2005 level 45% by 2030, as compared to the 2005 level A qualitative assessment of whether the policies identified support long-term reductions of GHG emissions to zero or near-zero by 2050 3#4CONCLUSIONS FROM THE FOURTH NATIONAL CLIMATE ASSESSMENT Executive Summary of the Climate Science Special Report: Fourth National Climate Assessment, Volume I U.S. Global Change Research Program, Washington, DC, USA. Excerpts from "Highlights of the U.S. Global Change Research Program - Climate Science Special Report" at pp. 10-11. (Copy of Highlights included in the Appendix.) Available at https://www.globalchange.gov/browse/reports/executive-summary-climate-science-special-report-fourth-national-climate-assessment 4#5Global annually averaged surface air temperature has increased by about 1.8°F (1.0°C) over the last 115 years (1901-2016). This period is now the warmest in the history of modern civilization. • It is extremely likely that human activities, especially emissions of GHG, are the dominant cause of the observed warming since the mid-20th century. For the warming over the last century, there is no convincing alternative explanation supported by the extent of the observational evidence. The global atmospheric CO2 concentration has now passed 400 parts per million, a level that last occurred about 3 million years ago, when both global average temperature and sea level were significantly higher than today. 5#6• Annual average temperature over the contiguous United States has increased by about 1.8°F (1.0°C) for the period 1901-2016. • Over the next few decades (2021-2050), annual average temperatures are expected to rise by about 2.5°F for the United States, relative to the recent past (average from 1976-2005), under all plausible future climate scenarios. 60#7• The incidence of large forest fires in the western United State and Alaska has increased since the early 1980s and is projected to further increase in those regions as the climate changes, with profound changes to regional ecosystems. Annual trends toward earlier spring melt and reduced snowpack are already affecting water resources in the western United States and these trends are expected to continue. Under higher scenarios, and assuming no change to current water resources management, chronic, long-duration hydrological drought is increasingly possible before the end of this century. 7#8The magnitude of climate change beyond the next few decades will depend primarily on the amount of greenhouse gases (especially carbon dioxide) emitted globally. Without major reductions in emissions, the increase in annual average global temperature relative to preindustrial times could reach 9°F (5°C) or more by the end of this century. With significant reductions in emissions, the increase in annual average global temperature could be limited to 3.6°F (2°C) or less. 8#9UNITED STATES FIRST NATIONALLY DETERMINED CONTRIBUTION SUBMITTED UNDER THE PARIS AGREEMENT Available at https://www4.unfccc.int/sites/ndcstaging/Published Documents/United%20States%20of%20America%20First/U.S.A.%20First%20NDC%20Submission.pdf 6#10"The United States is strongly committed to reducing greenhouse gas pollution, thereby contributing to the objective of the Convention. In response to the request in Lima to communicate to the secretariat its intended nationally determined contribution towards achieving the objective of the Convention as set out in its Article 2-the stabilization of greenhouse gas concentrations in the atmosphere at a level that would prevent dangerous anthropogenic interference with the climate system―the United States intends to achieve an economy-wide target of reducing its greenhouse gas emissions by 26-28 per cent below its 2005 level in 2025 and to make best efforts to reduce its emissions by 28%." 10#11UNITED STATES CLIMATE ALLIANCE https://www.usclimatealliance.org/ 11#12Current Members (22): California Colorado Connecticut Delaware Hawaii Illinois Maine Maryland Massachusetts Michigan Minnesota New Jersey New Mexico New York North Carolina Oregon Puerto Rico Rhode Island Vermont Virginia Washington Wisconsin 12 12#13Each member state commits to: Implement policies that advance the goals of the Paris Agreement, aiming to reduce greenhouse gas emissions by at least 26-28 percent below 2005 levels by 2025 Track and report progress to the global community in appropriate settings, including when the world convenes to take stock of the Paris Agreement, and Accelerate new and existing policies to reduce carbon pollution and promote clean energy deployment at the state and federal level. 13#14NEVADA'S PROGRESS IN REDUCING GREENHOUSE GAS EMISSIONS 14#15Nevada has significantly reduced its GHG emissions since 2005 Emissions (MMTCO₂eq) 60 60 50 40 30 20 10 Figure ES-2: Nevada Historical and Projected Gross Sector Emissions, 1990 - 2030 (MMTCO2eq) 0 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 Electricity Generation Residential, Commercial, and Industrial Waste Management Fossil Fuel Industry Transportation Industrial Processes Agriculture Forestry Source: Nevada Statewide Greenhouse Gas Emissions Inventory and Projections, 1990-2030, Nevada Division of Environmental Protection, 2016 Report. Available at https://ndep.nv.gov/uploads/air-pollutants-docs/GHG Report 2016.pdf 15#16CO2 emissions have declined while Nevada's population has increased NEVADA CO2 EMISSIONS & POPULATION GROWTH 2005-2016 Source: Source: EIA - Nevada Carbon Dioxide Emissions from Fossil Fuel Consumption (1980-2016). Available at https://www.eia.gov/environment/emissions/state/analysis/ 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 55 3,500,000 49.9 2,432,143 40 Million Metric Tons of CO2/Year 25 30 40 4 50 20 20 2,939,254 3,000,000 2,500,000 2,000,000 37.7 1,500,000 1,000,000 500,000 0 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 CO2 Emissions Nevada Population Nevada Population 16 16#17The Electric Power Sector has driven CO2 emission reductions NEVADA CO2 EMISSIONS - ELECTRIC POWER SECTOR 2005 v. 2016 Source: EIA - Nevada Carbon Dioxide Emissions from Fossil Fuel Consumption (1980-2016) -Coal & Natural Gas Emissions Available at https://www.eia.gov/environment/emissions/state/analysis/ Million Metric Tons of CO₂/Year 30 25 20 15 10 5 26.37 MMT 8.13 18.24 13.89 MMT 11.59 2.3 0 2005 2016 Coal Natural Gas 17#18Transportation Sector CO2 emissions have also declined since 2005 NEVADA CO2 EMISSIONS - TRANSPORTATION SECTOR 2005 v. 2016 Source: EIA - Nevada Carbon Dioxide Emissions from Fossil Fuel Consumption (1980-2016). Available at https://www.eia.gov/environment/emissions/state/analysis/ Million Metric Tons of CO2/Year 18 16 14 12 10 8 6 4 2 16.7 MMT 15.0 MMT 0 2005 2016 18#19The Transportation Sector is now the largest source of CO2 emissions NEVADA CO2 EMISSIONS BY SECTOR Source: EIA - Nevada Carbon Dioxide Emissions from Fossil Fuel Consumption (1980-2016). Available at https://www.eia.gov/environment/emissions/state/analysis/ 2005 Total Emissions = 49.9 MMT 2016 Total Emission = 36.7 MMT Residential Sector, Commercial Sector, 4% 4% Industrial Sector, 6% Electric Power Sector, 53% Transportation Sector, 33% Electric Power Sector, 38% Residential Sector, 6% Commercial Sector, 6% Industrial Sector, 9% Transportation Sector, 41% 19#20WESTERN RESOURCE ADVOCATES PROTECTING THE WEST'S LAND, AIR & WATER QUESTIONS? Robert Johnston Senior Staff Attorney Western Resource Advocates 550 West Musser Street, Suite I Carson City, NV 89703 [email protected] 775-461-3677 About Western Resource Advocates - Founded in 1989, Western Resource Advocates is dedicated to protecting the West's land, air and water. Western Resource Advocates' Clean Energy Program works in the Interior West to transition electricity production away from fossil fuels towards clean, renewable energy, and advance energy efficiency in order to prevent catastrophic climate change, improve air quality, and protect public health. 20#21APPENDIX 21#22Highlights of the U.S. Global Change Research Program Climate Science Special Report The climate of the United States is strongly connected to the changing global climate. The statements below highlight past, current, and projected climate changes for the United States and the globe. Global annually averaged surface air temperature has increased by about 1.8°F (1.0°C) over the last 115 years (1901-2016). This period is now the warmest in the history of modern civilization. The last few years have also seen record-breaking, climate-related weather extremes, and the last three years have been the warmest years on record for the globe. These trends are expected to continue over climate timescales. This assessment concludes, based on extensive evidence, that it is extremely likely that human activi- tles, especially emissions of greenhouse gases, are the dominant cause of the observed warming since the mid-20th century. For the warming over the last century, there is no convincing alternative explanation supported by the extent of the observational evidence. In addition to warming, many other aspects of global climate are changing, primarily in response to hu- man activities. Thousands of studies conducted by researchers around the world have document- ed changes in surface, atmospheric, and oceanic temperatures; melting glaciers; diminishing snow cover; shrinking sea ice; rising sea levels; ocean acidification; and increasing atmospheric water vapor. For example, global average sea level has risen by about 7-8 inches since 1900, with almost half (about 3 inches) of that rise occurring since 1993. Human-caused climate change has made a substan- tial contribution to this rise since 1900, contributing to a rate of rise that is greater than during any preceding century in at least 2,800 years. Global sea level rise has already affected the United States; the incidence of daily tidal flooding is accelerating in more than 25 Atlantic and Gulf Coast cities. Global average sea levels are expected to continue to rise-by at least several inches in the next 15 years and by 1-4 feet by 2100. A rise of as much as 8 feet by 2100 cannot be ruled out. Sea level rise will be higher than the global average on the East and Gulf Coasts of the United States. Changes in the characteristics of extreme events are particularly important for human safety, infrastruc- ture, agriculture, water quality and quantity, and natural ecosystems. Heavy rainfall is increasing in Intensity and frequency across the United States and globally and is expected to continue to in- crease. The largest observed changes in the United States have occurred in the Northeast. 22 22#23Heatwaves have become more frequent in the United States since the 1960s, while extreme cold temperatures and cold waves are less frequent. Recent record-setting hot years are projected to be- come common in the near future for the United States, as annual average temperatures continue to rise. Annual average temperature over the contiguous United States has increased by 1.8°F (1.0°C) for the period 1901-2016; over the next few decades (2021-2050), annual average temperatures are expected to rise by about 2.5°F for the United States, relative to the recent past (average from 1976-2005), under all plausible future climate scenarios. The Incidence of large forest fires in the western United States and Alaska has increased since the early 1980s and is projected to further increase in those regions as the climate changes, with profound changes to regional ecosystems. Annual trends toward earlier spring melt and reduced snowpack are already affecting water re- sources in the western United States and these trends are expected to continue. Under higher scenar- ios, and assuming no change to current water resources management, chronic, long-duration hydro- logical drought is increasingly possible before the end of this century. The magnitude of climate change beyond the next few decades will depend primarily on the amount of greenhouse gases (especially carbon dioxide) emitted globally. Without major reduc- tions in emissions, the increase in annual average global temperature relative to preindustrial times could reach 9°F (5°C) or more by the end of this century. With significant reductions in emissions, the Increase in annual average global temperature could be limited to 3.6°F (2°C) or less. The global atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO) concentration has now passed 400 parts per million (ppm), a level that last occurred about 3 million years ago, when both global average tempera- ture and sea level were significantly higher than today. Continued growth in CO₂ emissions over this century and beyond would lead to an atmospheric concentration not experienced in tens to hundreds of millions of years. There is broad consensus that the further and the faster the Earth system is pushed towards warming, the greater the risk of unanticipated changes and impacts, some of which are poten- tially large and irreversible. The observed increase in carbon emissions over the past 15-20 years has been consistent with higher emissions pathways. In 2014 and 2015, emission growth rates slowed as economic growth became less carbon-Intensive. Even if this slowing trend continues, however, it is not yet at a rate that would limit global average temperature change to well below 3.6°F (2°C) above preindustrial levels. 23 23