#1WHAT MATTERS TO BOSNIA AND HERZEGOVINA'S CITIZENS? Public Opinion Poll December 2021 NDI NATIONAL DEMOCRATIC INSTITUTE FOR INTERNATIONAL AFFAIRS#2METHODOLOGY 2 Ipsos Ipsos#3• METHODOLOGY DATA COLLECTION December 2 - 29, 2021 METHOD • Quantitative face-to-face survey within households . Computer Assisted Personal Interviewing (CAPI method) POPULATION • Population of Bosnia and Herzegovina aged 18+ SAMPLE FRAME • Address registry SAMPLE SIZE • • N=2,518 (1,564 in FBiH including oversample in Croat majority areas, 894 in RS) Data are weighted where necessary to reflect the true population allocation according to the 2013 census 3- Ipsos SAMPLING ERROR • +/- 2% on full sample • +/- 2.5% on FBiH sample • +/- 3.2% on RS sample SAMPLE TYPE Stratified sample STRATIFICATION • Within each entity the sample was stratified by region and settlement type STEPS OF RANDOM SELECTION • Step 1: Random selection of polling stations • Step 2: Random selection of households (random route technique) • Step 3: Random selection of respondents within HHI Ipsos#4PUBLIC MOOD & PRIORITIES Ipsos Ipsos#5Citizens are more likely than ever to see BiH moving in the wrong direction, with decline across all major groups since 2020. Is Bosnia and Herzegovina moving in the right or wrong direction? 5% 6% 5 Ipsos 90% ■Right direction Wrong direction ■DK / REF Base: Total N=2518 85% 11 % 4% 2020 Ipsos#6For the second year in a row, politicans are ranked high as a problem. Other social problems emanate from these two core issues. What are the biggest problems facing BiH? UNEMPLOYMENT 17% POLITICS / POLITICIANS 14% CORRUPTION 12% ECONOMY 5% CRIME 5% 5% SCANDALS LOW STANDARD 5% DEPARTURE OF YOUNG PEOPLE FROM THE COUNTRY 5% POLITICAL QUARRELS, DISAGREEMENTS, 6 Ipsos CONSTANT PRICE GROWTH 2% INTERETHNIC RELATIONS 2% PENSIONS 2% SECURITY, PEACE 2% OTHER (<2%) 12% DK/REF 12% Base: Total N=2518 Ipsos#7Respondents do not react strongly when asked to rate specific sources of personal fear. Deteriorating health and loss of income or employment seem most real to people. The political crisis, armed conflict, social issues, and natural disasters are less likely to provoke anxiety. Rate the level of fear that you or your family will be directly impacted by the following: Deteriorating health 24% 21% 23% 13% 16% Loss of income or employment 23% 21% 21% 14% 19% Ongoing political disputes 18% 22% 22% 14% 22% Armed conflict in BiH 16% 19% 21% 16% 26% Worsening social prejudice or inequality 15% 18% 27% 19% 17% Natural disaster like storms or floods 14% 19% 27% 18% 21% 7 Ipsos ■5 - the highest level of fear ■ 3 2 ■1 - the lowest level of fear Base: Total N=2518 Ipsos#8Support for EU accession is the most broad and intense that we have seen in years. Most importantly, Serb support is up sharply from one year earlier, from 55% to 64%. Do you support or oppose BiH accession to the EU? 7% 3% TOTAL SUPPORT 85% 6% 25% 60% ■Strongly support ■Somewhat support ■Somewhat oppose ■Strongly oppose 8 Ipsos 2020 76% Support 21% Oppose 2019 75% Support 21% Oppose 2018 77% Support 17% Oppose 2017 75% Support 21% Oppose 2016 72% Support 23% Oppose 2015 73% Support 24% Oppose Base: Total N=2518 BOSNIAK 6% SERB CROAT 4% ■DK / REF 64% 31% 92% 95% Ipsos#9Movement toward NATO membership is much more divisive, with strong support from Bosniaks and Croats, and firm opposition among Serbs Do you support or oppose BiH accession to NATO? 4% 19% 11% 17% 49% TOTAL SUPPORT 66% ■Strongly support ■Somewhat support ■Somewhat oppose ■Strongly oppose ■DK / REF 9 Ipsos 90% BOSNIAK 7% 12% SERB 82% 92% CROAT 6% Base: Total N=2518 Ipsos#10The influence of the EU, USA, and Turkey are perceived as more positive than domestic and regional actors, but this is driven by Bosniaks. 10 Croats agree that the EU plays a constructive role and are unexpectedly segregated on Croatia's role (Positive: 61%, Neutral: 16%, Negative: 5%, DK/REF: 18%). Parties are not seen as a positive influence, but the opposition are not as bad as ruling parties. Ipsos Please tell us the role the following actors play in the current political crisis. (Federation only) EU 44% 25% 23% 9% USA 38% 26% 25% 11% Turkey 38% FBiH opposition parties and leaders 17% 26% Croatia 14% 25% FBiH ruling parties and leaders 14% 16% Russia 7% 21% 30% 42% 21% 11% 15% 50% 11% 60% 61% 10% 11% Serbia 7% 22% 62% 10% Positive Neutral ■Negative DK/REF Base: Total FBiH N=1564 Ipsos#11Most in RS view Serbia and Russia as playing positive roles in the current crisis. 11 Almost half see the EU as a constructive player - though Bosniaks contribute to this, a plurality of Serbs agree. The RS opposition is considered more helpful than the ruling parties and leaders. The USA lacks credibility in RS. - Ipsos Please tell us the role the following actors play in the current political crisis. (Republika Srpska only) Serbia Russia EU 49% RS opposition parties and leaders 44% 70% 63% RS ruling parties and leaders 29% 9% Turkey 26% USA 17% 20% 35% 11% 7% 11% 16% 9% 11% 13% 29% 10% 13% 27% 17% 48% 51% 14% 25% 14% 12% Croatia 15% 34% 35% 16% ■Neutral ■Negative ■DK/REF Base: Total RS N=894 Ipsos ■ Positive#12Almost six-in-ten say they would certainly vote if elections are held next autumn, indicating high turnout intention. Those least likely to vote cite futility, apathy, and distrust. Q3. How likely is it that you would vote if elections are held next autumn? Q3A. If probably/certainly would note vote/DK: Why is it that you will not vote or are not sure about voting? 58% 26% No one to vote for 20% Nothing will change 18% Probably/certainly 4% would not vote/DK No trust in politicians / politics No confidence in the validity of the election 9% 9% 10% Does not want to vote 8% 3% Does not vote 7% Does not know who to vote for 6% Do not follow politics and political events 5% All politicians are the same 4% Other 8% DK/Ref 7% 12 Ipsos ■I would certainly vote I would probably vote ■I probably would not vote ■I certainly would not vote ■DK / REF Q3 base: Total N=2518; Q3A base N=415 Ipsos#13POLITICAL CRISIS & ETHNIC STRIFE 13 Ipsos Ipsos#14There is general agreement that the substance of the law on genocide denial was right and Dodik's reaction is wrong. People see Dodik's reaction as a convenient way to dodge responsibility for poor performance and corruption. Bosniaks agree most strongly with these statements. Do you agree or disagree with the following statements about the law promulgated by the High Representative? Blocking state institutions does no good for anyone The substance of the law is correct: glorification of war crimes has no place in our politics 48% 26% 13% 8% 6% 42% 26% 13% 10% 10% This issue is a smokescreen for politicians to avoid dealing with real economic problems and corruption 38% 27% 15% 10% 10% BiH has faced many political crises- we will get through this and continue as before 34% The law has caused more problems that it solved 33% 26% 18% 15% 8% 28% 35% 16% 9% 7% 20% 13% 9% 27% 11% The current political crisis is the worst since the war 30% The HR should not have authority to impose such a law 24% 21% 18% The substance of the law is correct but the timing was wrong 19% 28% 18% 22% 13% My ethnic group is threatened in BiH today 18% 29% 23% 23% 7% 14 Ipsos Completely agree Somewhat agree Somewhat disagree Completely disagree ■DK/REF Base: Total N=2518 Ipsos#15There is general agreement that the substance of the law on genocide denial was right and Dodik's reaction is wrong. People see Dodik's reaction as a convenient way to dodge responsibility for poor performance and corruption. Clear majorities of Serbs agree as well. ... Republika Srpska only. Blocking state institutions does no good for anyone 46% The law has caused more problems that it solved 41% 30% 9% 5% 10% 25% 13% 8% 13% The HR should not have authority to impose such a law 38% 19% 16% 12% 16% This issue is a smokescreen for politicians to avoid dealing with real economic problems and corruption 35% 27% 13% 7% 18% BiH has faced many political crises- we will get through this and continue as before 32% The substance of the law is correct: glorification of war crimes has no place in our politics 29% The current political crisis is the worst since the war 24% 29% 39% 12% 5% 12% 31% 11% 11% 19% 22% 11% 14% The substance of the law is correct but the timing was wrong 17% 27% 14% 19% My ethnic group is threatened in BiH today 14% 28% 24% 24% 23% 10% 15 Ipsos ■Completely agree Somewhat agree Somewhat disagree Completely disagree ■DK/REF Base: Total RS&BD N=954 Ipsos#16Bosniaks express the most worry about each of these outcomes, followed by Croats then Serbs. However, the intensity of concern is low across the board. 16 Ipsos How worried are you that: The ethnic tensions facing BiH at this time might lead to armed conflict. The ethnic tensions facing BiH at this time might lead to the dissolution of the state. 19% 35% Bosniak Bosniak 19% 24% 17% 34% 21% 25% ■Very worried 14% 12% ■Somewhat worried 22% 19% Serb Serb 29% ■Somewhat not worried 35% 25% ■Not worried at all 23% 14% Croat 31% 29% 22% Base: Total N=2518 11% Croat 37% 25% 25% Ipsos#17A majority believes that the international community should take a hard stance against Dodik and his threats, but this is driven by Bosniaks and Croats. Serbs are more likely to view Dodik's moves as an internal matter with no role for the international community. What is your view of the international community response to Dodik's moves to withdraw from state institutions and transfer jurisdiction to the RS? 7% 15% 21% 57% 9% Bosniak 10% 3% 24% Serb 18% 43% 15% 17% Croat 19% 2% ■The international community should negotiate with Dodik to find a solution to the crisis ■The international community should take a hard stand against Dodik and his threats. ■This is an internal matter and the international community has no role in it. ■DK/REF 63% 77% 17 Ipsos Base: Total N=2518 Ipsos#18REPUBLIKA SRPSKA 18 Ipsos Ipsos#19The prospect of RS withdrawal from state institutions finds weak support across the entity. Support for withdrawal and transfer of competencies is a bit deeper in East RS (sum+ 40%), where Dodik is more popular than in North RS (sum+ 31%). But neither the population at large nor Serbs in particular rally to this position. Do you support or oppose Dodik's announcement that RS would withdraw from state institutions and transfer competencies to the RS government? (indirect tax administration, armed forces and the high judicial and prosecutorial council) 28% 8% 18% 20% ■Strongly support Somewhat support 26% ■Somewhat oppose Serbs: 42% Support sum 37% Oppose sum ■Strongly oppose ■ DK / REF 19 Ipsos Base: Total RS N=894 Ipsos#20Counterarguments that focus on likely job losses and possible armed conflict won't fundamentally change the debate but could blunt support for the move. 20 Messages pushing back on the withdrawal and transfer are more persuasive in East RS than in North RS, suggesting a possible path to undermine support in Dodik's base. Ipsos (If Strongly/Somewhat Support): Please tell us whether the following arguments impact your support for RS withdrawal from state institutions. A withdrawal from state institutions would further inflame the situation in BiH and might lead to armed conflict If such a withdrawal happens, about 51% 36% 32% 17% 19% 19% 12% 13% 13% 25% 43% 19% North RS East RS 7,000 RS citizens 10% 25% would lose their 54% 20% 1214% 46% 19% jobs with state institutions ■Much less likely to support It makes no difference Little less likely to support ■DK/REF Base: RS N=305 40% 36% 17% 6% North RS East RS Ipsos#21Support for RS independence is fairly weak. Do you support or oppose RS declaring independence? . As on the previous question, support is stronger in East RS and among Serbs than in the overall RS population, but nowhere near majorities. 21 Ipsos 26% Strongly support 9% 20% 19% ■Somewhat support 26% Somewhat oppose Strongly oppose DK / REF North RS East RS Support 33 39 Serbs: 43% Support - sum 33% Oppose - sum Oppose 42 49 Base: Total RS N=894 Ipsos#22RS independence supporters tend to turn down counter- arguments. Greater awareness of negative impact could dampen support somewhat. These messages are also significantly more impactful in East RS than in the North, providing a rhetorical touchstone in Dodik's base. 22 Ipsos (If Strongly/Somewhat Support): Please tell us whether the following arguments impact your support for RS independence. As an independent state, RS would be recognized by very few countries and this isolation would have a devastating impact on economic viability and travel RS would not really be independent as it would be totally reliant on Serbia and Russia for economic and military support 51% 46% 35% 25% 14% 10% 12% 9% 23% 49% 20% 7% North RS East RS 60% 48% 31% 20% 13% 12% 17% 55% 17% 8% 10% 11% Much less likely to support It makes no difference ■Little less likely to support ■DK/REF Base: RS N=316 North RS East RS Ipsos#23Keeping the peace and building the economy are much more important than whatever Dodik's concept of "Serb unity" might be, and people want their parties and leaders to focus on these priorities. RS respondents regard peace (72%) and economy (69%) over Serb unity (49%) - though Bosniaks and Croats contribute to this. 23- Ipsos Please tell us whether you agree/disagree with each of the following statements. Keeping the peace is much more important than "Serb unity" and RS parties should start focusing on that 43% The economy is much more important than "Serb unity" and RS parties should focus on that 42% 29% 14% 3% 27% 14% 5% "Serb unity" is just a political phrase used to take the public's attention away from corruption in the RS 30% 22% 20% 12% Opposition parties in RS should stand up to Dodik and work to protect both the RS and the stability of the state structure 26% 23% 15% 17% Opposition parties should have resisted the decision to block state institutions - the ruling parties are only manipulating them 24% 23% 16% 16% Dodik's response to the genocidal denial law is a legitimate effort to protect Serb interests 22% 25% 21% 12% Serb unity is the most important thing; political parties in RS should stick together and protect the RS no matter what happens ■Strongly agree 21% 28% 20% 14% Somewhat agree ■Somewhat disagree ■Strongly disagree Base: Total RS N=894 Ipsos#24THANK YOU FOR YOUR TIME! February 2022 NDI NATIONAL DEMOCRATIC INSTITUTE FOR INTERNATIONAL AFFAIRS