Third Quarter 2021 Investor Presentation

Made public by

sourced by PitchSend

14 of 42

Creator

Scotiabank logo
Scotiabank

Category

Financial

Published

August 24, 2021

Slides

Transcriptions

#1Investor Presentation Third Quarter 2021 August 24, 2021 ⚫ Scotiabank#2Caution Regarding Forward-Looking Statements From time to time, our public communications often include oral or written forward- looking statements. Statements of this type are included in this document and may be included in other filings with Canadian securities regulators or the U.S. Securities and Exchange Commission, or in other communications. In addition, representatives of the Bank may include forward-looking statements orally to analysts, investors, the media and others. All such statements are made pursuant to the "safe harbor" provisions of the U.S. Private Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995 and any applicable Canadian securities legislation. Forward-looking statements may include, but are not limited to, statements made in this document, the Management's Discussion and Analysis in the Bank's 2020 Annual Report under the headings "Outlook" and in other statements regarding the Bank's objectives, strategies to achieve those objectives, the regulatory environment in which the Bank operates, anticipated financial results, and the outlook for the Bank's businesses and for the Canadian, U.S. and global economies. Such statements are typically identified by words or phrases such as "believe," "expect," "foresee," "forecast," "anticipate," "intend," "estimate," "plan," "goal," "project," and similar expressions of future or conditional verbs, such as "will," "may," "should," "would" and "could." By their very nature, forward-looking statements require us to make assumptions and are subject to inherent risks and uncertainties, which give rise to the possibility that our predictions, forecasts, projections, expectations or conclusions will not prove to be accurate, that our assumptions may not be correct and that our financial performance objectives, vision and strategic goals will not be achieved. We caution readers not to place undue reliance on these statements as a number of risk factors, many of which are beyond our control and effects of which can be difficult to predict, could cause our actual results to differ materially from the expectations, targets, estimates or intentions expressed in such forward-looking statements. The future outcomes that relate to forward-looking statements may be influenced by many factors, including but not limited to: general economic and market conditions in the countries in which we operate; changes in currency and interest rates; increased funding costs and market volatility due to market illiquidity and competition for funding; the failure of third parties to comply with their obligations to the Bank and its affiliates; changes in monetary, fiscal, or economic policy and tax legislation and interpretation; changes in laws and regulations or in supervisory expectations or requirements, including capital, interest rate and liquidity requirements and guidance, and the effect of such changes on funding costs; changes to our credit ratings; operational and infrastructure risks; reputational risks; the accuracy and completeness of information the Bank receives on customers and counterparties; the timely development and introduction of new products and services; our ability to execute our strategic plans, including the successful completion of acquisitions and dispositions, including obtaining regulatory approvals; critical accounting estimates and the effect of changes to accounting standards, rules and interpretations on these estimates; global capital markets activity; the Bank's ability to attract, develop and retain key executives; the evolution of various types of fraud or other criminal behaviour to which the Bank is exposed; disruptions in or attacks (including cyber-attacks) on the Bank's information technology, internet, network access, or other voice or data communications systems or services; increased competition in the geographic and in business areas in which we operate, including through internet and mobile banking and non-traditional competitors; exposure related to significant litigation and regulatory matters; the occurrence of natural and unnatural catastrophic events and claims resulting from such events; the emergence of widespread health emergencies or pandemics, including the magnitude and duration of the COVID-19 pandemic and its impact on the global economy and financial market conditions and the Bank's business, results of operations, financial condition and prospects; and the Bank's anticipation of and success in managing the risks implied by the foregoing. A substantial amount of the Bank's business involves making loans or otherwise committing resources to specific companies, industries or countries. Unforeseen events affecting such borrowers, industries or countries could have a material adverse effect on the Bank's financial results, businesses, financial condition or liquidity. These and other factors may cause the Bank's actual performance to differ materially from that contemplated by forward- looking statements. The Bank cautions that the preceding list is not exhaustive of all possible risk factors and other factors could also adversely affect the Bank's results, for more information, please see the "Risk Management" section of the Bank's 2020 Annual Report, as may be updated by quarterly reports. Material economic assumptions underlying the forward-looking statements contained in this document are set out in the 2020 Annual Report under the headings "Outlook", as updated by quarterly reports. The "Outlook" sections are based on the Bank's views and the actual outcome is uncertain. Readers should consider the above-noted factors when reviewing these sections. When relying on forward-looking statements to make decisions with respect to the Bank and its securities, investors and others should carefully consider the preceding factors, other uncertainties and potential events. Any forward-looking statements contained in this document represent the views of management only as of the date hereof and are presented for the purpose of assisting the Bank's shareholders and analysts in understanding the Bank's financial position, objectives and priorities, and anticipated financial performance as at and for the periods ended on the dates presented and may not be appropriate for other purposes. Except as required by law, the Bank does not undertake to update any forward-looking statements, whether written or oral, that may be made from time to time by or on its behalf. Additional information relating to the Bank, including the Bank's Annual Information Form, can be located on the SEDAR website at www.sedar.com and on the EDGAR section of the SEC's website at www.sec.gov. 2#3Opening Remarks Brian Porter President & CEO Strong performance from all businesses International Banking earnings recovered to target levels Strong capital levels to support future growth Recognition for data innovation and digital initiatives 3#4Q3/21 Financial Results Raj Viswanathan Group Head & CFO 4#5Q3 2021 Financial Performance $MM, except EPS Q3/21 Y/Y Q/Q Reported Net Income $2,542 95% 4% • Pre-Tax, Pre-Provision Profit $3,660 (2%) (1%) • Diluted EPS $1.99 91% 6% Revenue $7,757 Expenses $4,097 2% 1% Productivity Ratio 52.8% 80 bps 60 bps Core Banking Margin 2.23% 13 bps (3 bps) PCL Ratio¹ 24 bps (112 bps) (9 bps) PCL Ratio on Impaired Loans¹ 53 bps (5 bps) (27 bps) Adjusted² Net Income $2,560 96% 3% Pre-Tax, Pre-Provision Profit $3,684 (1%) (1%) Diluted EPS $2.01 93% 6% • Revenue $7,757 1% • Expenses $4,073 3% Productivity Ratio 52.5% 110 bps 1% 60 bps YEAR-OVER-YEAR HIGHLIGHTS Adjusted EPS² up 93%; up 6% Q/Q Adjusted pre-tax, pre-provision profit² down 1% Adjusted revenue² up 1%, or up 5% excluding the impact of foreign exchange o Non-interest income up 3% or up 7% excluding the impact of foreign exchange 。 Net interest income down 1%, or up 3% excluding the impact of foreign exchange Core banking margin up 13 bps Adjusted expenses² up 3% (up 1% Q/Q) YTD adjusted operating leverage² of +1.6% Strong ROE² of 15.1% ADJUSTED NET INCOME² YEAR-OVER-YEAR ($MM) ADJUSTED NET INCOME 2,3 BY BUSINESS SEGMENT ($MM) (122) 1,801 (495) 104 2,560 (36) 1,083 1,308 433 397 600 332 513 53 493 Q3/20 Net interest Non-interest Income income PCLS Non-interest Taxes expenses Q3/21 Canadian Banking Global Wealth Management Global Banking and Markets International Banking 1 Includes provision for credit losses on certain assets - loans, acceptances and off-balance sheet exposures 2 Refer to Non-GAAP Measures on slide 38 for adjusted results Q3/20 Q3/21 5 3 Attributable to equity holders of the Bank#6Strong Capital Position CETI ratio of 12.2% · 12.3% +32 bps -11 bps -16 bps 1 -6 bps -5 bps -4 bps 12.2% Q2 2021 Reported Earnings less dividends RWA growth (ex. FX) Reversal of Increased SVaR Multiplier ownership in Chile ECL Transitional Capital Relief Other (net) Q3 2021 Reported Internal capital generation Strong internal capital generation of 21 bps RWA growth primarily from retail mortgages and business lending 22 bps impact from increase in SVaR multiplier and increased ownership in Scotiabank Chile Reported Leverage Ratio of 4.8% includes 19 bps benefit from OSFI's exclusion of sovereign-issued securities 1 Includes 9 bps benefit from OSFI's partial inclusion of stage 1 and 2 allowances 6#7Canadian Banking $MM Q3/21 Y/Y Q/Q Reported • Net Income¹ $1,079 152% 16% Pre-Tax, Pre-Provision Profit $1,528 15% 10% Revenue $2,795 12% 7% Expenses $1,267 8% 3% • PCLS $69 (91%) (52%) Productivity Ratio 45.3% (160 bps) (150 bps) Net Interest Margin 2.23% (3 bps) (3 bps) PCL Ratio² 7 bps (78 bps) (9 bps) PCL Ratio on Impaired Loans² 14 bps (22 bps) (13 bps) . Adjusted³ Net Income¹ $1,083 150% 16% Pre-Tax, Pre-Provision Profit $1,533 15% 9% • Expenses Productivity Ratio $1,262 8% 3% • 45.1% (160 bps) (150 bps) • • YEAR-OVER-YEAR HIGHLIGHTS Adjusted net income 1,3 up 150% (up 16% Q/Q) ○ Pre-tax, pre-provision profit up 15% o PCLs down 91% due to more favourable credit and macroeconomic outlook Revenue up 12% (up 7% Q/Q) 。 Non-interest income up 34% driven by continued rebound in fee income 。 Net interest income up 5% from strong loan growth NIM down 3 bps o Mainly due to changes in business mix Adjusted expenses³ up 8% (up 3% Q/Q) YTD adjusted operating leverage³ +2.3% Loan growth of 7% o Residential mortgages up 10% o Business loans up 7% Deposit growth of 12% o Personal up 5%, non-personal up 26% ADJUSTED NET INCOME ¹³ ($MM) AND NIM (%) 2.26% 2.26% 2.26% 2.26% 2.23% 1,083 915 931 782 433 1 Attributable to equity holders of the Bank 2 Includes provision for credit losses on certain assets - loans, acceptances and off-balance sheet exposures 3 Refer to Non-GAAP Measures on slide 38 for adjusted results Q3/20 Q4/20 Q1/21 Q2/21 Q3/21 7#8Global Wealth Management $MM, except AUM/AUA Q3/21 Y/Y Q/Q Reported • Net Income¹ $390 21% 5% Pre-Tax, Pre-Provision Profit $523 20% 3% Revenue $1,335 18% 2% Expenses $812 16% 1% PCLS ($1) nmf nmf Productivity Ratio • 60.9% (80 bps) (40 bps) AUM ($B) $344 17% 4% AUA ($B) $587 17% 3% Adjusted² Net Income¹ $397 19% 5% • Pre-Tax, Pre-Provision Profit $531 18% 3% Expenses $804 17% 1% Productivity Ratio 60.2% (10 bps) (40 bps) • YEAR-OVER-YEAR HIGHLIGHTS Adjusted net income² up 19% o Canadian wealth management up 20% (ten consecutive quarters of double-digit Y/Y growth) o International wealth management up 16% (up 25% constant FX) Revenue up 18% o Higher mutual fund fees o Higher brokerage fees 。 Strong volume growth in Private Banking Adjusted expenses² up 17% (volume driven) YTD adjusted operating leverage² +3.7% o Seven consecutive quarters of positive operating leverage AUM up 17% and AUA up 17% o Strong net sales and market appreciation 1,2 ADJUSTED NET INCOME ¹² ($MM) AND ROE² (%) AUM AUA +17% +17% Y/Y Y/Y 344 571 587 17.9% 332 16.7% 16.8% 33 -9% 503 293 37 37 106 107 -1% 14.3% 14.3% Y/Y Y/Y 108 425 62 295 311 +21% +22% 465 480 256 Y/Y 395 Y/Y 332 333 363 378 397 Q3/20 Q2/21 Q3/21 Canada Q3/20 Q2/21 Q3/21 ■International 1 Attributable to equity holders of the Bank 2 Refer to Non-GAAP Measures on slide 38 for adjusted results Q3/20 Q4/20 Q1/21 Q2/21 Q3/21 ■ Performance Fees 8#9Global Banking and Markets YEAR-OVER-YEAR HIGHLIGHTS $MM Q3/21 Y/Y Q/Q Reported • Net income down 14% (down 1% Q/Q) Net Income¹ $513 (14%) (1%) Pre-Tax, Pre-Provision Profit $633 (32%) 1% Revenue $1,253 (19%) Expenses $620 (2%) • PCLS ($27) nmf (37%) Productivity Ratio 49.5% 940 bps (80 bps) PCL Ratio² (11 bps) (61 bps) 7 bps PCL Ratio Impaired Loans² 3 bps (10 bps) (2 bps) o Normalization in Capital Markets mainly due to lower fixed income revenues, partially offset by a releases in provisions for credit losses Revenue down 19% (flat Q/Q) 。 Net interest income down 3% (up 4% Q/Q) o Non-interest income³ down 24% (down 2% Q/Q) Average loan growth of 1% Q/Q 1 Attributable to equity holders of the Bank 2 Includes provision for credit losses on certain assets - loans, acceptances and off-balance sheet exposures 3 Refer to Non-GAAP Measures on slide 38 for adjusted results • Average deposits up 5% • Expenses remained flat • Productivity ratio³ improved 80 bps Q/Q 1,3 ADJUSTED NET INCOME ¹³ ($MM) AND ROE³ (%) 17.5% 14.6% 17.3% 17.4% 16.1% 600 543 517 513 460 Q3/20 Q4/20 Q1/21 Q2/21 Q3/21 9#10International Banking $MM Q3/21 Y/Y1 Q/Q¹ Reported Net Income² $486 nmf 17% Pre-Tax, Pre-Provision Profit $1,063 1% 1% Revenue $2,362 2% Expenses $1,299 4% • PCLs $339 (71%) (11%) Productivity Ratio 55.0% 90 bps 60 bps . Net Interest Margin 3.72% (27 bps) (23 bps) PCL Ratio³ 100 bps (233 bps) (18 bps) PCL Ratio Impaired Loans³ 208 bps 59 bps (73 bps) Adjusted 4 • Net Income² $493 nmf 17% Pre-Tax, Pre-Provision Profit $1,074 (2%) 1% Expenses $1,288 3% 4% Productivity Ratio 54.6% 230 bps 70 bps ADJUSTED NET INCOME 24 ($MM) AND NIM (%) 3.99% 3.97% 4.03% 3.95% . . HIGHLIGHTS1 Adjusted net income 2,4 of $493 million increased 17% Q/Q 。 PCLs down 11% Q/Q, supported by improved credit quality Pre-tax, pre-provision profit up 1% Q/Q; Pacific Alliance up 8% Q/Q Revenue up 2% Q/Q o Higher non-interest income offset by margin compression NIM down 23 bps Q/Q o Mainly driven by business mix and margin compression in Peru and Colombia Loans flat Q/Q or up 1% Q/Q excluding impact of divestitures o Commercial up 1% Q/Q 。 Mortgages up 2% Q/Q o Credit cards and Personal Loans down 3% Q/Q Pacific Alliance loan growth of 1% Q/Q Adjusted expenses up 4% Q/Q YTD adjusted operative leverage of -2.8% 3.72% • 493 398 429 283 53 Q3/20 Q4/20 Q1/21 Q2/21 Q3/21 1 Y/Y and Q/Q growth rates (%) are on a constant dollar basis, while metrics and change in bps are on a reported basis 2 Attributable to equity holders of the Bank 3 Includes provision for credit losses on certain assets - loans, acceptances and off-balance sheet exposures 4 Refer to Non-GAAP Measures on slide 38 for adjusted results 10 10#11Other (64) ADJUSTED NET INCOME 8 47 1, 2, 3 ($MM) 130 (7) • YEAR-OVER-YEAR HIGHLIGHTS Increase was driven by: Higher contribution from asset/liability management activities and lower COVID-19 related costs, partially offset by lower investment gains QUARTER-OVER-QUARTER HIGHLIGHTS Q3/20 Q4/20 Q1/21 Q2/21 Q3/21 • Decrease was driven by lower non-interest revenue о Lower investment gains о Lower income from associated corporations 1 Represents smaller operating segments including Group Treasury and corporate adjustments 2 Attributable to equity holders of the Bank 3 Refer to Non-GAAP Measures on slide 38 for adjusted results 11#12Risk Review Daniel Moore Group Head & CRO 12 12#13Credit Quality GILS ($MM) AND GIL RATIO¹ 81 bps 81 bps 84 bps 81 bps 73 bps 5,148 26 209 5,053 26 302 5,279 39 33 5,116 28 224 4,735 -286 1,209 1,067 235 1,049 1,040 921 3,704 3,676 3,949 3,757 3,551 Q3/20 Q4/20 Q1/21 Q2/21 Q3/21 HIGHLIGHTS GIL ratio improved 8 bps driven by low formations across all business lines GIL ratio is now below pre-pandemic levels NET WRITE-OFFS ($MM)² AND NET WRITE-OFFS RATIO³ 76 bps 62 bps . HIGHLIGHTS Lower write-offs Q/Q 47 bps 41 bps 43 bps 1,141 13 . 219 983 1 8 173 Significant reduction in International Banking 750 1 33 632 674 -25 Write-offs in Canadian Banking and Global Banking and Markets are well below historical averages 266 -26 201 227 910 801 450 379 448 Q3/20 Q4/20 Q1/21 Q2/21 (1) Q3/21 International Banking Canadian Banking Global Banking and Markets Global Wealth Management 1 As a percentage of period end loans and acceptances 2 Net write-offs are net of recoveries 3 As a percentage of average net loans and acceptances 13#14Credit Performance TOTAL ACLs ($MM) AND ACL COVERAGE RATIO1 125 bps 125 bps 116 bps 109 bps 96 bps 7,820 7,810 7,403 181 220 182 6,893 1,957 1,994 -177 6,232 1,776 153 1,938 1,759 . 5,445 5,682 5,596 4,778 4,320 . Q3/20 Q4/20 Q1/21 Q2/21 Q3/21 Performing Loan ACLs Impaired Loan ACLS Other² 136 bps TOTAL PCLs ($MM)³,4 AND PCL RATIO • 73 bps 2,181 149 -2 49 bps 33 bps . 24 bps 752 1,131 3 330 62 764 4 496 1,278 215 20 736 525 145 396 380 (2) 339 (1) (43) .69 (27) Q3/20 Q4/20 Q1/21 Q2/21 Q3/21 International Banking Canadian Banking Global Banking and Markets Other4 HIGHLIGHTS $6.2 billion in total ACLS (22% above pre-pandemic levels) Performing loan ACLs decreased 10% from the prior quarter Total ACLS represents ~9 quarters of net write-offs Total ACL coverage ratio of 96 bps (vs 82 bps pre-pandemic) HIGHLIGHTS Total PCL ratio of 24 bps decreased 112 bps Y/Y and 9 bps Q/Q The Q/Q improvement was driven by lower impaired PCLs in International and Canadian Banking 1 ACL coverage ratio defined as period end total ACLS (excluding debt securities and deposits with financial institutions) divided by gross loans and acceptances 2 Includes ACLs on off-balance sheet exposures and ACLs on acceptances and other financial assets 3 Includes provision for credit losses on other financial assets in International Banking (Q1/20: -$1 million, Q2/20: $1 million, Q4/20: -$1 million), in Global Banking and Markets of $1 million (Q3/20: $1 million, Q4/20: -$1 million), in Global Wealth Management (Q3/20: -$1 million) and in Other (Q1/20: $1 million, Q2/20: -$2 million, Q4/20: $2 million) 4 Other includes provisions for credit losses in Global Wealth Management of -$1 million (Q2/20: $2 million, Q3/20: $1 million, Q4/20: $3 million, Q1/21: $4 million, Q2/21: -$2 million) 14#15PCLs - Impaired and Performing HIGHLIGHTS PCLs ($MM) Q3/20 Q4/20 Q1/21 Q2/21 Q3/21 All-Bank Impaired 928 835 Performing 1,2531 2961 Total 2,1811 1,1311 YEAR-OVER-YEAR 762 1,192 841 2 (696) (461) 764 496 380 Lower PCLs driven mainly by lower performing PCLs. Total PCLs of $380 million was down 83% and 23% Q/Q Canadian Banking О Performing PCLs net reversal of $461 million Impaired 317 Performing 435 Total 752 238 214 242 135 92 1 (97) (66) 330 215 145 69 International Banking Impaired 573 561 528 941 703 Performing 705 1751 (3) (545) (364) Total 1,278 7361 525 396 339 Global Wealth Management Impaired 1 5 (3) (3) Performing 11 2 Total 11 3 14 (1) 1 2 4 (2) (1) • Global Banking and Markets Release driven by a more favourable credit quality and macroeconomic outlook and migration Impaired PCLs of $841 million was driven largely by International Retail Banking due to credit migration in Colombia and Peru QUARTER-OVER-QUARTER • Impaired PCLs decreased $351 million, driven largely by International Retail Banking Performing PCLs declined to ($461) million due to the lower migration to stage 3 Impaired 38 Performing 34 1111 281 Total 1491 621 552 15 12 10 6 (55) (33)1 20 (43) (27) Other _1 1 Includes provision for credit losses on other financial assets in International Banking (Q1/20: -$1 million, Q2/20: $1 million, Q4/20: -$1 million), in Global Banking and Markets of $1 million (Q3/20: $1 million, Q4/20: -$1 million), in Global Wealth Management (Q3/20: -$1 million) and in Other (Q1/20: $1 million, Q2/20: -$2 million, Q4/20: $2 million) 15 15#16Closing Remarks Brian Porter President & CEO Year-to-date earnings are substantially higher than the same period in FY19 Economic activity in major markets continues to strengthen Positioned well for long term growth 116 16#17Appendix 17#18Net Income and Adjusted Diluted EPS Net Income ($MM) and Q3/20 Q2/21 Q3/21 EPS ($ per share) Net Income attributable to common shareholders $1,332 $2,289 $2,426 Dilutive impact of share-based payment options and others ($43) $13 $9 Net Income attributable to common shareholders (diluted) $1,289 $2,302 $2,435 Weighted average number of common shares outstanding 1,211 1,213 1,215 Dilutive impact of share-based payment options and others 34 10 Weighted average number of diluted common 1,245 1,223 1,223 shares outstanding Reported Basic EPS $1.10 $1.89 $2.00 Dilutive impact of share-based payment options and others ($0.06) ($0.01) ($0.01) Reported Diluted EPS $1.04 $1.88 $1.99 Impact of adjustments on diluted earnings per share¹ $0.02 $0.02 Adjusted Diluted EPS $1.04 $1.90 $2.01 Refer to Non-GAAP Measures on Slide 38 for adjusted results Quarterly diluted common shares outstanding may be impacted by dilutive effect of put options sold by the bank in the following legal entities: - Colpatria - BBVA Chile - Canadian Tire Financial Services 18#19Adjusting Items Q3/20 Q2/21 Q3/21 I 6 26 26 24 Adjusting Items (Pre-Tax) ($MM) Acquisition-Related Costs Integration Costs International Banking Global Wealth Management Amortization of Intangibles 40 34 Canadian Banking International Banking Global Wealth Management Net Loss/(Gain) on Divestitures Other Total (Pre-Tax) Adjusting Items (After-Tax and NCI) ($MM) Acquisition-Related Costs 2572 12 11 10 2529 (44) (44) 22 - - 26 11 2578 - - 24 Q3/21 After-Tax Q3/20 Q2/21 Tax NCI and NCI Integration Costs 24 International Banking 19 Global Wealth Management 5 2 Amortization of Intangibles 18 19 Canadian Banking 4 International Banking 8 Global Wealth Management 6 Net Loss/(Gain) on Divestitures (43) 19 24969 6 18 1 4 4 7 1 7 Other (43) 4 Total (After-Tax and NCI) (1) 19 6 01 18 1 Excludes amortization of intangibles related to software (pre-tax) 2 Excludes amortization of intangibles related to software (after-tax) 19 19#20Other Items Impacting Financial Results (Pre-Tax) ($MM)¹ 1 Q3/20 Q4/20 Q1/21 Q2/21 Q3/21 International Banking Impact of closed divestitures 1 3 4 Total 1 3 4 Global Wealth Management Performance fees 84 Total 84 Other SCENE loyalty program Total (66) - (66) Total (Pre-Tax) 1 3 18 (After-Tax and NCI) ($MM)¹ Q3/20 Q4/20 Q1/21 Q2/21 Q3/21 International Banking Impact of closed divestitures 2 3 (1) Total 2 3 (1) Global Wealth Management Performance fees Total Other SCENE loyalty program Total Total (After-Tax and NCI) Impact on diluted earnings per share 62 32 62 (49) - (49) - 2 12 (1) - $0.01 - - Items on this page have not been formally adjusted for determining the Bank's Adjusted Net Income and Adjusted Diluted EPS 20 20#21Digital Progress: All-Bank • Canada: Continued growth in mobile users driven by continuous improvement of the Scotiabank mobile application • Pacific Alliance: Strong growth in Self-Serve Transactions, particularly in Peru and Mexico +7% Digital Adoption (%)¹ 7,524 7,310 7,830 +500 bps Active Digital Users (#000) 6,316 5,276 +48% 54% 50% 49% 43% 2018 2019 2020 Q3/20 Q3/21 36% +1,800 bps +16% 2018 2019 2020 Q3/20 Q3/21 Active Mobile Users (#'000)² 5,903 6,470 5,591 4,513 3,559 Digital Sales (%) 36% 37% 28% 22% 2018 2019 2020 +82% 2018 2019 2020 Q3/20 Q3/21 +600 bps +100 bps 43% Self-Serve Transactions 76% 80% 89% 89% 90% (%) +1,400 bps +2,100 bps Q3/20 Q3/21 1CB Digital Adoption definition was updated in Q1/21 to reflect new addressable customer base, excluding indirect-channel acquisitions 22018 and 2019 use historical estimation based on available mobile user data for Colombia and Chile 2018 2019 2020 Q3/20 Q3/21 21#22Digital Progress: Canada Digital Adoption (%)¹ +4% Active Digital 3,329 3,599 3,847 3,826 3,985 +300 bps Users (#'000) +20% 55% 55% 58% 46% 50% 2018 2019 2020 Q3/20 Q3/21 +1,200 bps +10% 2018 2019 2020 Q3/20 Q3/21 Active Mobile Users (#'000) 3,073 2,991 3,304 2,396 2,666 +38% Digital Sales (%) 2018 2019 2020 Q3/20 Q3/21 +500 bps 26% 26% 25% +5 bps 20% 16% -100 bps Self-Serve Transactions (%) 84% 87% 92% 93% 93% +900 bps 2018 2019 2020 Q3/20 Q3/21 2018 2019 2020 Q3/20 Q3/21 Definitions Digital Sales (% of retail unit sales using Digital platforms, excluding auto, broker originated mortgages and mutual funds) Digital Adoption (% of customers with Digital login (90 days) / Total addressable Customer Base) Digital Users: # of customers who logged into website and/or mobile in the last 90 days Mobile Users: # of customers who logged into mobile in the last 90 days Self-serve Transactions: % of Financial transactions through Digital, ABM, IVR 1CB Digital Adoption definition was updated in Q1/21 to reflect addressable customer base, excluding indirect-channel acquisitions 22 22#23Digital Progress: Pacific Alliance +10% Digital Adoption (%) 3,677 +600 bps Active Digital Users (#'000) 3,484 3,846 2,717 1,947 50% 46% 44% 35% +97% 2018 2019 2020 Q3/20 Q3/21 26% +2,400 bps +22% 2018 2019 2020 Q3/20 Q3/21 Active Mobile Users (#000)¹ 2,830 3,166 2,601 1,847 1,163 +172% Digital Sales (%) +700 bps 55% 2018 2019 2020 Q3/20 Q3/21 +300 bps 51% 48% 29% +3,600 bps 19% Self-Serve Transactions 86% 85% 88% 69% 73% (%) +1,900 bps 2018 2019 2020 Q3/20 Q3/21 2018 2019 2020 Q3/20 Q3/21 Definitions Digital Sales (% of retail unit sales using Digital platforms) Digital Adoption (% of customers with Digital login (90 days) / Total addressable Customer Base) Digital Users: # of customers who logged into website and/or mobile in the last 90 days Mobile Users: # of customers who logged into mobile in the last 90 days Self-serve Transactions: % of Financial transactions through Digital, ABM, IVR, POS 12018 and 2019 use historical estimation based on available mobile user data for Colombia and Chile 23 23#24Economic Outlook in Core Markets Real GDP Growth, Actuals and Consensus Forecasts (2021-22) Real GDP (Annual % Change) 2010-19 Country 2020 2021F 2022F Average Canada 2.2 -5.3 6.2 4.2 U.S. 2.3 -3.4 6.2 4.3 Mexico 2.7 -8.3 5.9 3.0 Peru 4.5 -11.1 9.9 4.1 Chile 3.3 -5.8 8.1 3.0 Colombia 3.7 -6.8 6.3 3.8 PAC Average¹ 3.6 -8.0 7.6 3.5 Source: Bloomberg, as of August 20, 2021 1 Simple average. 24 224#25Macroeconomic Scenarios Select Macroeconomic Variables used to estimate Expected Credit Losses Base Case Scenario Next 12 months Canada Real GDP growth, Y/Y % change Alternative Scenario - Alternative Scenario - Optimistic Pessimistic Alternative Scenario - Pessimistic Front Loaded As at July 31, 2021 As at April 30, 2021 As at July 31, 2021 As at April 30, 2021 As at July 31, 2021 As at April 30, 2021 As at As at July 31, 2021 April 30, 2021 5.3 7.8 7.1 74 9.9 1.2 12 2.8 -5.7 -3.5 Unemployment rate, average % 6.5 6.7 5.8 6.1 9.0 9.3 11.9 12.2 US Real GDP growth, Y/Y % change 6.7 8.2 8.5 10.3 3.6 4.8 Unemployment rate, average % 4.7 5.0 4.3 4.5 6.5 6.7 879 -0.5 0.9 7.8 8.0 Global WTI oil price, average USD/bbl 65 62 71 70 58 54 62 52 50 Next 12 months Quarterly breakdown of the projections for the above macroeconomic variables: Base Case Scenario Calendar Quarters Calendar Quarters Average Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 July 31 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 2021 2021 2022 2022 2021 2021 2021 2021 2022 Average April 30 2021 Canada Real GDP growth, Y/Y % change 6.4 5.2 4.7 5.1 5.3 14.1 6.6 5.3 5.2 7.8 Unemployment rate, average % 7.3 6.7 6.2 5.9 6.5 7.7 7.0 6.4 5.9 6.7 US Real GDP growth, Y/Y % change Unemployment rate, average % 7.1 7.7 6.8 5.1 6.7 11.8 6.6 7.3 7.0 8.2 5.4 4.9 4.5 4.1 4.7 5.8 5.3 4.8 4.2 5.0 Global WTI oil price, average USD/bbl 65 Source: Scotiabank Economics, forecasts as of June 11, 2021 55 65 66 66 65 60 61 55 65 61 62 62 25 25#26Revenue Growth 1 May not add due to rounding Canadian Banking1 +3% 2,707 859 International Banking¹, 2, 3 (Growth rates are constant FX) -12% 2,795 957 +11% 2,986 699 68 -32% 2,362 463 .43 -27% 1,848 1,838 -1% 2,219 1,856 -6% Q1/20 (Pre-Pandemic) Retail Banking Q3/21 Business Banking Global Wealth Management 1,5 +15% 1,335 148 -17% Q1/20 (Pre-Pandemic) Q3/21 Latin America C&CA Asia Global Banking and Markets 1,4 -1% 1,157 1,269 1,253 178 405 340 -16% 204 264 +29% 1,187 +21% 979 660 649 -2% Q1/20 (Pre-Pandemic) Canada Q3/21 International Q1/20 Q3/21 (Pre-Pandemic) Business Banking Global Equities FICC 2 Y/Y growth rates are on a constant dollar basis 3 On a constant dollar basis, and excluding the impact of divestitures and the one month reporting lag in Q1/20, revenue growth in International Banking was -5% Y/Y (Latin America -4%, C&CA -13%, Asia +40%) 4 GBM LatAm revenue contribution and assets are reported in International Banking's results 5 On a constant dollar basis, and excluding the impact of divestitures and the one month reporting lag in Q1/20, Global Wealth Management revenue growth was 19% Y/Y and International Wealth Management revenue growth was 2% Y/Y 26#27Loan Growth by Business Line Canadian Banking +9% 381 International Banking1 (Growth rates are constant FX) 351 +12% 64 57 6 -24% 151 8 68 -4% 71 78 0%2² 138 75 75 +5% Global Banking and Markets 10 -7 -29% 97 46 243 215 23 18 -12% +13% 40 38 +4% Q1/20 (Pre-Pandemic) Q3/21 Q1/20 (Pre-Pandemic) Q3/21 Residential mortgages Personal loans Credit cards Business Q1/20 (Pre-Pandemic) -6% 91 Q3/21 Strong loan growth driven by residential mortgages and business lending, partially offset by reductions in credit cards and personal loans 1 Y/Y growth rates are on a constant dollar basis Loans flat to Pre-Pandemic levels at constant dollars, with higher commercial and residential mortgages balances offset by lower personal and credit card loans Excluding the impact of divestitures and on a constant dollar basis, Loans increased 3% Y/Y Decline vs Pre-Pandemic levels due to liquidity in public debt markets as well as the impact of foreign currency translation 27#28Deposit Growth 1 May not add due to rounding 2 Growth rates are on a constant dollar 3 Includes deposits from banks Canadian Banking1 248 79 +20% International Banking 1,2,3 (Growth rates are constant FX) 298 +2%4 107 +36% 111 103 72 67 +3%5 191 +12% 169 39 36 +1%5 Q1/20 Q3/21 Q1/20 (Pre-Pandemic) Q3/21 Global Banking and Markets¹,3 +37% (Pre-Pandemic) Global Wealth Management 1,6 29 155 113 15 21 +31% 38 19 +29% 19 +33% 14 Q1/20 (Pre-Pandemic) Q3/21 Q1/20 (Pre-Pandemic) Q3/21 Personal Non-Personal 4 Excluding impact of divestitures and on a constant dollar basis, deposits increased 8% Y/Y 5 Excluding impact of divestitures and on a constant currency basis, non-personal deposits increased 6% Y/Y and personal deposits increased 11% Y/Y 6 On a constant dollar basis, Global Wealth Management deposits increased 33% Y/Y 28#293.00% 2.50% 2.00% 1.50% 1.00% 0.50% 0.25% 0.00% 2007 2008 0.50% 0.40% 0.30% 0.20% 0.19% 0.10% 0.00% 2007 2008 0.44% 0.90% 1.00% 2009 2010 1 Provision for credit losses on certain assets - loans, acceptances and off-balance sheet exposures 2011 2012 2012 2009 2013 2013 0.80% 0.60% 0.40% 0.20% 0.12% 0.00% 2007 2008 0.24% 2009 0.23% 0.37% 0.35% 2010 2011 2010 0.59% Historical PCL Ratios on Impaired Loans ALL BANK¹ 0.56% 0.47% 0.50% 0.49% 0.49% 0.45% 0.34% 0.36% 0.40% 0.42% 0.43% 0.32% CANADIAN BANKING' 0.28% 0.28% 0.29% 0.23% 0.23% 0.23% 0.24% 0.18% INTERNATIONAL BANKING¹ 2017 1.27% 1.24% 1.26% 1.21% 1.29% 1.30% 0.86% 0.75% 0.75% -Average (2007 - Q3/21) Q1/21 2018 1.49% 1.50% Q2/21 Q3/21 29 29 0.29% Q1/21 2019 0.32% 2020 Q1/21 Q2/21 0.80% 0.53% Avg: 44 bps Q3/21 0.23% 0.27% 0.14% Avg: 26 bps Q2/21 2.81% 2.08% Avg: 120 bps Q3/21#30Canadian Retail: Loans and Provisions' MORTGAGES 4 4 1 1 0 0 1 2 2 1 1 1 1100 AUTO LOANS 216 224 96 84 85 94 99 105 106 91 99 39 89 81 78 35 Q4/19 Q1/20 Q2/20 Q3/20 Q4/20 Q1/21 Q2/21 Q3/21 LINES OF CREDIT² Q4/19 Q1/20 Q2/20 Q3/20 Q4/20 Q1/21 Q2/21 Q3/21 CREDIT CARDS 169 164 1,002 896 72 80 87 79 62 70 381 385 445 400 410 322 288 33 70 73 74 65 60 57 32 379 377 401 312 321 310 204 Q4/19 Q1/20 Q2/20 Q3/20 Q4/20 Q1/21 Q2/21 Q3/21 PCL as a % of avg. net loans (bps) Loan Balances Q3/21 Spot ($B) % Secured Mortgages $270 100% 1 Includes Wealth Management. PCL excludes impact of additional pessimistic scenario 2 Includes Home Equity Lines of Credit and Unsecured Lines of Credit 3 Includes Tangerine balances of $8 billion and other smaller portfolios 482% secured by real estate; 12% secured by automotive Q4/19 Q1/20 Q2/20 Q3/20 Q4/20 Q1/21 Q2/21 Q3/21 PCLs on Impaired Loans as a % of avg. net loans (bps) Auto Loans Lines of Credit² Credit Cards Total $40 $32 $6 $3493 100% 64% 2% 94%4 30#31International Retail: Loans and Provisions MEXICO 550 591 CHILE CARIBBEAN & CENTRAL AMERICA 556 428 Markets with Greater 279 321 457 329 280 191 246 228 181 248 Impaired Avg. 160 238 Impaired Avg. 142 bps Impaired Avg. 234 bps 326 300 261 221 187 Weighting to 251 250 267 276 bps 178 253 243 154 175 190 81 70 62 205 179 Secured 163 87 231 221 204 216 54 67 58 165 170 195 170 1 Q4/19 Q1/20 Q2/20 Q3/20Q4/20 Q1/21 Q2/21 Q3/21 Q4/19 Q1/20 Q2/20 Q3/20 Q4/20 Q1/21 Q2/21 Q3/21 1 Q4/19 Q1/20 Q2/20 Q3/20 Q4/20 Q1/21 Q2/21 Q3/21 Markets with Greater Weighting to Unsecured PERU 2,436 COLOMBIA 1,552 1,588 1,338 Impaired Avg. 664 bps Elevated impaired PCLs in Peru and Colombia are driven by the expiry of deferral programs and the higher unsecured balances. This has been appropriately provided for in prior quarters. 939 Impaired Avg. 906 bps 1,290 1,322 1,152 970 1,194 473 471 738 471 439 361 579 1,065 542 143 764 726 636 361 470 395 424 Q4/19 Q1/20 Q2/20 Q3/20Q4/20 Q1/21 Q2/21 Q3/21 Q4/19 Q1/20'Q2/20 Q3/20 Q4/20 Q1/21 Q2/21 Q3/21 420 406 385 245 287 PCL as a % of avg. net loans (bps) PCLs on Impaired Loans as a % of avg. net loans (bps) Average Impaired PCL % (Q4/19-Q3/21) Loan Balances Q3/21 Mexico Peru Chile Colombia Caribbean & CA Total² Secured ($B) $11 $3 $20 $2 $9 $45 Unsecured ($B) $2 $5 $5 $3 $2 $18 Spot Total ($B) $13 $8 $25 $5 $11 $63 1 PCL excludes impact of additional pessimistic scenario 2 Total includes other smaller portfolios 31#32Retail 90+ Days Past Due Loans CANADA1 Q1/20 Q2/202 Q3/202 Q4/202 Q1/212 Q2/212 Q3/212 Mortgages 0.21% 0.21% 0.19% 0.15% 0.17% 0.16% 0.13% Personal Loans 0.63% 0.72% 0.63% 0.51% 0.54% 0.51% 0.41% Credit Cards 1.02% 1.12% 0.81% 0.70% 0.98% 0.75% 0.57% Secured and 0.25% 0.26% 0.23% 0.19% 0.22% 0.18% 0.15% Unsecured Lines of Credit Total 0.29% 0.30% 0.26% 0.21% 0.23% 0.21% 0.18% Q1/20 Q2/202 Q3/202 Q4/202 Q1/212 Q2/212 Q3/212 Mortgages 2.65% 3.05% 2.94% 2.70% 2.76% 2.67% 2.60% Personal Loans 3.89% 4.04% 4.02% 4.19% 5.79% 5.29% 4.42% Credit Cards 3.26% 3.35% 2.72% 2.61% 7.08% 5.83% 3.14% Total 3.22% 3.36% 3.18% 3.05% 4.05% 3.69% 3.09% INTERNATIONAL 1 Includes Wealth Management 2 Does not reflect impact of payment deferral programs 32 32#33International Banking: Pacific Alliance 1,2,3 FINANCIAL PERFORMANCE AND METRICS ($MM) Q3/21 Q2/21 Q3/20 Q/Q Y/Y Revenue ($MM) 1,728 1,709 1,833 5% 2% Expenses ($MM) 797 807 846 3% 0% PTPP ($MM) 931 902 987 8% 4% Net Income ($MM) 442 358 63 28% 847% NIM 3.80% 4.04% 4.04% (24 bps) (24 bps) Productivity Ratio 46.1% 47.2% 46.1% (107 bps) 15% Colombia GEOGRAPHIC DISTRIBUTION4,5 32% 3% Colombia Mexico 31% Chile REVENUE $1.73B 37% 22% Chile NET INCOME 1,3 $442MM Peru 1 Attributable to equity holders of the Bank 2 Y/Y and Q/Q growth rates (%) are on a constant dollar basis, while metrics and change in bps are on a reported basis 3 Refer to Non-GAAP Measures on slide 38 for adjusted results 4 For the 3 months ended July 31, 2021 5 May not add due to rounding 39% 9% Mexico Colombia 40% 21% Chile Peru AVG EARNING ASSETS $131B 31% Mexico 19% Peru 33#34Sectors Most Impacted by COVID-191 Most Impacted Sectors as a % of Total Loans Canada Real Estate: Office and Retail C&CA 9% $B %IG 4.1% Mexico 4.0% 4.0% 3% Office REIT 1.2 72% 3.6% 3.5% U.S. 5% $9.2B 59% Office Real Estate 3.8 54% 12% Other (1.4% of total loans) Retail REIT 1.1 98% Q3/20 Q4/20 Q1/21 Q2/21 Q3/21 1% Retail Real Estate 3.0 45% Europe 12% Latin America Total² 9.2 59% Europe Canada Hospitality and Leisure Other 1% 31% 10% Total Loans $650.9B Energy E&P and Oilfield Services: 1.1% Real Estate Office = and Retail: 1.4% $B %IG Hotels 3.5 17% $4.5B (0.7% of total loans) Cruise Lines 0.3 0% 17% Transportation - Air 28% C&CA Gaming 0.7 1% Travel: 0.3% U.S. Total² 4.5 13% Hospitality and Leisure: 0.7% Total COVID-19 High Impact: 3.5% 1 Sectors which have experienced the greatest disruption in normal business activities and impact to revenue due to the COVID-19 pandemic (including, but not limited to, government-mandated closures) relative to other sectors 2 May not add due to rounding 4% 9% Mexico Latin America Canada Transportation: Mexico 17% Latin America 6% 6% Air Travel $B %IG C&CA 8% $2.1B Aircraft Finance 0.7 96% (0.3% of total loans) Airlines 0.3 3% 15% 48% Airports 1.1 45% Other Europe Total² 2.1 57% 34#35COVID-19 Response in Core Markets United Canada Mexico Peru Chile Colombia Policy Action Policy Rate Cuts¹ States 150 bps 150 bps 300 bps1 200 bps1 125 bps1 250 bps (March 1, 2020 - June 1, 2021) Current Policy Rate 0.25% 0.25% 4.50% 0.50% 0.75% 1.75% 2021 Nominal Neutral Rate² 2.00% 2.00% 6.00% 3.50% 3.50% 4.85% Fiscal & Financial Measures 17.5% 22.3% 0.7% 20.0%³ 34.6%³ 2.8% (% of GDP) Liquidity program Wage and payroll Selected support programs Key Measures Payment deferral programs Small business and sectoral programs Vaccine Coverage4 825% 443% 144% 204% 253% 67% (% of possible population covered) Vaccine Deployment5 135.10 105.61 57.22 46.01 137.50 60.22 (Vaccine doses administered per 100 people) COVID-19 Incidence Rate5 (Cumulative confirmed cases per 100k people) 3,850 10,934 2,343 6,456 8,503 9,536 Sources: Scotiabank Economics, Duke University, Johns Hopkins University, Our World in Data and national reports as of August 12, 2021, unless otherwise indicated. 1 As of August 12, 2021, in Mexico, Chile and Peru, respectively, 50 bps, 25 bps and 25 bps of these cuts had been rolled back. Further rate increases are expected across the PACs during the remainder of 2021. 2 Canada, US, Colombia: Scotiabank Economics estimates; Mexico, Peru, Chile: central bank estimates. 3 Includes pension withdrawals and deposit relief. 4 Internationally comparable Duke University data adjusted for national reports; excludes doses via COVAX. Colombia includes public and private donations. 5 As of August 11, 2021. Source: Our World in Data. 35#36(# of days in quarter) Trading Results 35 30 30 25 20 20 15 10 10 0 5 ZERO TRADING LOSS DAYS (Q3/21) TRADING REVENUE AND ONE-DAY TOTAL VAR (Q3/21) <3 5 6 7 8 9 10 15 20 20 Q3/21 Daily Trading Revenues ($MM) Millions 50 40 30 20 10 0 -10- -20 -30 25 >25 3-May-21 Average 1-Day Total VaR Q3/21: $ 12.3 MM Q2/21: $16.7 MM Q3/20: $30.5 MM 14-Jun-21 21-Jun-21 28-Jun-21 5-Jul-21 10-May-21 17-May-21 31-May-21 24-May-21 1-day total VaR 7-Jun-21 12-Jul-21 19-Jul-21 26-Jul-21 Actual Daily Revenue 36#37Impact of Foreign Currency Translation Average Exchange Rate Q3/21 Q/Q Y/Y US Dollar/Canadian Dollar Mexican Peso/Canadian Dollar Peruvian Sol/Canadian Dollar Colombian Peso/Canadian Dollar Chilean Peso/Canadian Dollar 0.814 2.4% 11.4% 16.265 0.4% (2.1)% 3.152 7.6% 24.2% 3,050.455 6.4% 11.6% 594.658 4.1% 1.7% Impact on Net Income¹ ($MM except EPS) Q/Q Y/Y YTD/YTD Net Interest Income (65) (168) (408) Non-Interest Income² (7) (120) (239) Total Revenue (72) (288) (647) Non-Interest Expenses 49 130 316 Other Items (Net of Tax) 19 73 172 Net Income (4) (85) (159) Earnings Per Share (diluted) (0.07) (0.13) Impact by business line ($MM) Canadian Banking (3) (4) International Banking2 (42) (93) Global Wealth Management (1) (5) (13) Global Banking and Markets (7) (33) (64) Other² 7 (2) 15 Net Income (4) (85) (159) 1 Includes the impact of all currencies. Includes the impact of foreign currency hedges. 37 37#38Non-GAAP Measures The Bank uses a number of financial measures to assess its performance. Some of these measures are not calculated in accordance with Generally Accepted Accounting Principles (GAAP), which are based on International Financial Reporting Standards (IFRS) as issued by the International Accounting Standards Board (IASB), are not defined by GAAP and do not have standardized meanings that would ensure consistency and comparability among companies using these measures. The Bank believes that certain non-GAAP measures are useful in assessing ongoing business performance and provide readers with a better understanding of how management assesses performance. These non-GAAP measures are used throughout this report and defined below. Adjusted results and diluted earnings per share The following table presents reconciliations of GAAP Reported financial results to non-GAAP Adjusted financial results. The adjustments summarized below are consistent with those described in the Bank's 2020 Annual Report. For a complete description of the adjustments, refer to the Non-GAAP Measures section in the Bank's 2020 Annual Report: Adjustments impacting current and prior periods: • Amortization of acquisition-related intangible assets, excluding software Adjustments impacting prior periods only: • Acquisition and divestiture-related costs - Include costs related to integrating acquired operations and net (gain)/loss on divestitures Valuation-related adjustments, recorded in Q1 2020 - Relate to the inclusion of an additional scenario in the measurement of allowance for credit losses, fair value methodology change relating to uncollateralized OTC derivatives, and a software-related impairment loss 38#39Investor Relations Contact Information John McCartney, Senior Vice-President 416-863-7579 [email protected] Sophia Saeed, Vice-President 416-933-8869 [email protected] Mark Michalski, Director 416-866-6905 [email protected] Rene Lo, Director 416-866-6124 [email protected] 39

Download to PowerPoint

Download presentation as an editable powerpoint.

Related

Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group 2021 Financial Overview image

Sumitomo Mitsui Financial Group 2021 Financial Overview

Financial

Organic Capital Generation and IFRS Transition Outlook image

Organic Capital Generation and IFRS Transition Outlook

Financial

Acquisition of Marshall & Ilsley Corp. image

Acquisition of Marshall & Ilsley Corp.

Financial

SMBC Group's Financial and Credit Portfolio image

SMBC Group's Financial and Credit Portfolio

Financial

Blue Stripe Fund Summary image

Blue Stripe Fund Summary

Financial

BRI Performance Highlights and Green Initiatives image

BRI Performance Highlights and Green Initiatives

Financial

Latvia Stability Programme Report image

Latvia Stability Programme Report

Financial

International Banking Volume & Growth Summary image

International Banking Volume & Growth Summary

Financial