Tüpraş Investor Presentation August 2019

Made public by

sourced by PitchSend

23 of 56

Creator

Tupras logo
Tupras

Category

Energy

Published

August 2019

Slides

Transcriptions

#1Tüpras TK-0018 T PROCKE EXT K-401 K-0048 Koc Investor Presentation August 2019#2Disclaimer This presentation contains forward-looking statements that reflect the Company management's current views with respect to certain future events. Although it is believed that the expectations reflected in these statements are reasonable, they may be affected by a variety of variables and changes in underlying assumptions that could cause actual results to differ materially. Neither Tüpraş nor any of its directors, managers or employees nor any other person shall have any liability whatsoever for any loss arising from use of this presentation. Investor Presentation www.tupras.com.tr Hizmete Özel / Confidential Hizmete Ozel/Confidential 2#3Content Investor Presentation www.tupras.com.tr CONTENT ● Refining Market Slides 4-10 • Turkish Market Slides 11-14 ● Company Overview Slides 15-19 Operations Slides 20-24 Key Financials Slides 25-39 • Outlook Slides 40-45 Appendix Slides 46-51 3#4产 <79246 OC 126D-013 OT ATM.RESISURGE DRUM REFINING MARKET#5Brent Crude Oil Prices ($/bbl) 100 90 80 70 60 54.5 50 40 30 20 10 0 Emery Jan-17 Feb-17 Mar-17 Source Platts As of August 7th. Investor Presentation www.tupras.com.tr REFINING INDUSTRY Apr-17 May-17 Jun-17 Jul-17 Aug-17 Sep-17 Oct-17 Nov-17 Dec-17 Jan-18 Feb-18 Mar-18 Apr-18 May-18 Jun-18 Jul-18 Aug-18 Sep-18 Oct-18 Nov-18 Dec-18 Jan-19 Feb-19 Mar-19 Apr-19 May-19 Jun-19 Jul-19 Aug-19 55.2 PROS • OPEC+ supply cut • Political instabilities in Middle East, Africa • and Latin America Impact of sanctions CONS • Increase in shale production in US . Inventory Levels Impact of trade disputes • Weak PMI in Europe and China 50#6Refinery Capacity Change (mb/d) 2012-2018 Net Capacity Additions by Region Europe -1.4 N. America 0.2 Japan -1.0 Other Other Asia Middle East India China 1.3 0.5 1.7 1.0 2.1 Expectations until 2024: ~78% of net capacity additions to come from Asia & Middle East Global utilization rate to decline from 82% (2018) to 79% (2024) Net capacity and demand in Europe to remain roughly unchanged Source:, Reuters, International Energy Agency, Tüpraş, sector reports and news. Investor Presentation www.tupras.com.tr REFINING INDUSTRY 1.2 2.7 2019-2024 Net Capacity Additions Asia & Middle East 0.5 1.9 2.0 1.5 ■ Other 0.5 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2019-2024 Additional Refinery Throughput vs. Demand 1.1 0.9 0.9 0.6 1.1 ■Refinery Throughput Refinery Products Demand 1.0 0.9 0.8 0.6 0.4 -0.1 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 6#7Middle Distillate Cracks ($/bbl) 20 Diesel -2016 2017 -2018 -2019 19.5 20 Jet Fuel 16.2 15.9* 15.5 14.9 15.0 14.3 15.0 16.1* 15 14.1 15.9 14.1 14.8 13.6 13.7 14.4 14.4 14.4 15 13.7 13.9 12.6 12.9 13.2 12.1 12.2 13.6 14.4 11.4 13.8 11.5 13.3 12.2 13.2 11.2 10.4 12.5 10 11.9 10.0 10 9.5 10.9 10.3 5 7.2 6.6 LO 5 0 0 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun July Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Source Platts : *As of August 7th Investor Presentation REFINING INDUSTRY www.tupras.com.tr 18.1 15.2 14.3 11.4 9.1 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun July Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec. 7#8Gasoline and High Sulphur Fuel Oil Cracks ($/bbl) 20 18.6 Gasoline 14.7 14.4 15 13.0 13.1 12.1 13.5 12.0 12.1 13.413.4* 10.6 10.2 10.0 10 9.0 50 0 2.9 1.7 9.4 -2016 2017 2018 2019 11.9 0 -5 -7.0 -5.0 -5.5 High Sulphur Fuel Oil -3.7 -6.9 -8.6 -8.5 -6.8 -9.1 -8.3 -9.1* -9.8 -10.2 -11.9 -12.5 -12.7 -11.3 -10.9 -12.2 9.6 -8.7 -10 9.7 5.5 5.0 -13.2 -15 3.5 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun July Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec Source Platts : *As of August 7th Investor Presentation www.tupras.com.tr REFINING INDUSTRY -20 -15.2 13.0 -13.2 Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun July Aug Sep Oct Nov Dec 8#9- Quarterly Crack Margin Comparison in 2015 – 2019 ($/bbl) Compared to Q2 2018, Mid-distillate (Diesel: -12%, Jet -22%) and Gasoline (-17%) performed weaker in Q2 while HSFO (+20%) cracks were stronger. Diesel Jet 16.8 15.9 15.4 14.6 13.9 Slow down in economic activities 13.8 13.8 13.4 Lower Asian air traffic Imports from Asia to High product flows 13.3 12.3 12.2 from Asia & US to 10.8 Europe kept markets well supplied Europe Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Gasoline 12.7 12.6 10.9 10.5 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 High Sulphur Fuel Oil Lighter shale gas processing leading to -5.8 increase in gasoline -9.9 -7.2 yields globally Lower supply due to decreased heavy crude availability -10.0 Lower naphtha demand -12.6 -12.4 due to decreased petrochemical driven 4.7 Higher HSFO demand in power generation replacing crude oil 4.5 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Investor Presentation www.tupras.com.tr consumption 2019 2019 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2019-2015 Min - Max 9#10Crude Price Differentials to Brent ($/bbl) Heavy crude differentials continued narrowing in Q2 with lower availability mainly due to OPEC+ cuts, Iran sanctions and limitations on Venezuelan supply. Ural and CPC differentials both widened in June due to ample oil supplies in the European Market. Arab Heavy 2 0 -2 -4 -6 -8 -10 -12 *Simple average of listed differentials Investor Presentation www.tupras.com.tr Basrah Heavy CPC Kirkuk Kuwait Libya Ural -Average* OPEC Cut Iran Decision Sanctions OPEC Cut Decision 10#11A TURKISH MARKET#12Turkish Consumption 2015-2018 (Million tons) Diesel Jet Fuel 2018 23.58 2018 4.99 -2.4% +10.4% 2017 24.17 2017 4.52 +8.3% +2.7% 2016 22.31 2016 4.40 +8.5% -3.9% 2015 20.56 2015 4.58 Gasoline Fuel Oil* 2018 2.34 2018 0.39 +1.8% -20.1% 2017 2.30 2017 0.49 +3.1% -15.7% 2016 2.23 2016 0.58 +6.5% -3.5% 2015 2.10 2015 0.60 *Bunker excluded. Investor Presentation www.tupras.com.tr REFINING INDUSTRY 12#13Turkish Market, 5M 2019 (Million tons) Diesel contracted in the first 5M of 2019. Diesel 2019 5M 9.28 2018 5M 10.03 Gasoline 2019 5M 0.91 2018 5M * Transit flight consumption included ** Bunker excluded Investor Presentation www.tupras.com.tr 0.90 Jet Fuel* -7.4% 2019 5M 1.86 +3.0% 2018 5M 1.80 Fuel Oil** +1.1% 2019 5M 0.21 +11.3% 2018 5M 0.19 13#14Turkey's Import / Export Balance (Net) (Million Tons) 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 4 Export 2.4 2.4 0 -4 -3.1 -3.2 -8 -12 Import -16 LPG Gasoline Investor Presentation www.tupras.com.tr REFINING INDUSTRY -12.0 Diesel -13.6 1.4 1.0 0.0 -0.4 Fuel Oil Jet 14#15Tupras LG-600 ProHang Tupras COMPANY OVERVIEW ras 1#16Tüpraş Shareholder Structure Koç Holding %77 DİTAŞ %79,98 Opet %40 Körfez Ulaştırma A.Ş. %100 *As of December 31st, 2018. Investor Presentation www.tupras.com.tr Aygaz %20 Energy Investments Inc. (SPV) COMPANY OVERVIEW %51 Opet %3 Tüpras Free Float %49 Publicly Traded *Distribution of Domestic/ Foreign Ownership of Tüpraş Shares Foreign Ownership 84% 16% Domestic Ownership 16#17Tüpraş Refining Assets & Distribution Network OPET Marmara Terminal 721,000 m3 İstanbul İzmir I İzmit Ankara Kırıkkale : 30.0 mn ton OPET LAntalya Terminal 19,392 m3 OPET Mersin Terminal 240,000 m3 Total Capacity Nelson Complexity : 9.5 Tüpraş Storage Cap. : 7.0 mn m³ OPET Storage Cap. : 1.0 mn m3 İzmit OPET Giresun Terminal 43,130 m3 Baku Turkey Storage Capacity Tüpraş : 50% Opet : 7% Batman Other Companies : 43% Crude Pipeline 11.3 MT Capacity • NC: 14.5 Storage Capacity: 2.99 mn m³ İzmir 11.9 MT Capacity NC: 7.66 Kırıkkale 5.4 MT Capacity • NC: 6.32 Storage Capacity: 2.51 mn m³ Storage Capacity: 1.27 mn m³ Base oil 400 k tons Investor Presentation www.tupras.com.tr COMPANY OVERVIEW Kirkuk Terminal Refinery Batman • 1.4 MT Capacity • NC: 1.83 Storage Capacity:0.27 mn m³ 17#18Nelson Complexity of Refining Companies 9,7 CANADA 11,6 USA Investor Presentation www.tupras.com.tr COMPANY OVERVIEW NWE 8,9 8,2 RUSSIA İzmit ref. 9.7 9,7 ¦⚫14,5 EAST TÜPRAŞ EUROPE 7,7 9,5 9,9 10,4 8,9' EAST ASIA CHINA MED 7,2 JAPAN MIDDLE mal 9,0 EAST 7,1 LATIN AMERICA 5,0 AFRICA SOUTH ASIA 7,9 AUSTRALLIA 18#19Tüpraş Subsidiaries OPET, Distribution, Tüpraş Share: 40% DİTAŞ, Marine Transport, Tüpraş Share: 79.98% Dpet NO SMOKING SAFETY FAST 1,635 stations as of 30 June 2019 800 Jada As of May 2019 Market share: 18.6% in white products; 28.5% in black products Körfez Ulaştırma, Railway Transport, Tüpraş Share: 100% FREE T.GONUL 3 Crude Oil Tanker: 480,859 DWT 1 Crude Oil - Product Tanker: 51,532 DWT 9 Product Tanker: 155,535 DWT" Tüpraş Trading UK, Trading, Tüpraş Share: 100%* Tupras Trading ISISER DC CO Investor Presentation www.tupras.com.tr * ~7% share in Turkish rail freight market ❖ ~780 kton of product and semi-product carried in H1 2019. ❖ Operates with 491 cistern wagons and 9 diesel locomotives. Trading Office in London will be an important step into wider integration with the global energy landscape by allowing to: 。 Closely monitor international market opportunities 。 Support import and export operations Create additional value from supply chain and sales activities * Tüpraş Trading UK is a direct branch of Tüpraş. 19#20207 OPERATIONS#21Crude Suppliers of Tüpraş In 2018, Tüpraş purchased 20 different types of crude oil from 12 countries, with gravities ranging between 19-47 API. Investor Presentation www.tupras.com.tr OPERATIONS Crude oil imports by region (%) 90 ■ Africa ■ America ■ Europe ■CIS ■Middle East 80 81 79 76 70 71 67 65 60 A 63 50 40 A 30 20 17 10 12 1315 10 13 '11 14 10 14 10 14 6 6 23 0 10 2.1 7 302 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 21#22Q2 Product Yields Investor Presentation www.tupras.com.tr 2018 2019 LPG Asphalt 14% 4% Asphalt 10% LPG 4% Gasoline 20% Gasoline 20% Fuel Qil Fuel Qil Black Black Kok 3% Kok 10 Prod. Prod. 3% Other 20.9% Light Distil. 2% Other 21.7% Light Distil. 3% Other 23.7% Naphtha 1.6% 1% 3.2% Other 1.6% 25.1% Naphtha 1% Mid. Mid. Distil Distil 52.2 Jet Jet 51.5 20% 16% % % Gasoil 32% Gasoil 36% White Products Production ΑΡΙ 78.0% 6.1 mn tons 30.98 White Products Production ΑΡΙ 77.4% 6.9 mn tons 32.39 22#23www.tupras.com.tr Capacity Utilization and Quarterly Production Volume 96.5% capacity utilization was achieved in Q2 2019 despite RUP maintenance. Quarterly Production (Million Tons) Capacity Utilization* (%) 5.2 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 6.9 6.7 6.2 *Capacity utilization calculation is based on 30 mn tons for Q1 2019 and onwards. Investor Presentation Crude Oil Semi Product Feedstock Total 115 108 105 103 7 4 7 99 96 97 4 92 94 9 9 5 4 7 78 87 11 85 107 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 2015 2016 2017 2018 Q1 18 Q2 18 Q3 18 Q4 18 Q1 19 Q2 19 67 23#24Sales (Million Tons) Tüpraş generated 29.8 million tons of total sales 2018. Jet fuel and diesel sales increased by 7.4% and 5.3% compared to 2017, respectively. 30.3 31.5 Total Sales 29.8 28.7 Customer Groups Bitumen; Export; 14% 10% Military; 1% 5.8 5.5 4.2 6.5 22.2 24.8 25.7 25.6 Other; 6% ■Domestic Sales 5.3 22.2 29.8 mn tonnes LPG; 3% 16.9 Jet; 6% ■ Export Dist.; 50% THY Opet; 10% 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 Domestic Sales of Key Products 20.9 21.6 21.9 Sales to Distributors AKPET 4% OTHER 8% 18.9 3.4 3.5 2.9 TP POAŞ 27% 2.9 14.3 2.2 2.2 2.2 1% 2.0 ■ Diesel 1.9 4.5 4.5 4.9 BP 14.8 mn tonnes 13% 1.8 4.8 ■ Jet Fuel 3.9 ■Gasoline 9.2 10.8 11.3 11.9 ■Bitumen 6.7 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 SHELL 17% OPET 30% Investor Presentation OPERATIONS www.tupras.com.tr 24#25KEY FINANCIALS#26Margin Environment ($/bbl) Tüpraş' 3.5 $/bbl Net Refining Margin in H1 2019 was higher than 2.7 $/bbl Med Complex margin. Premium to the benchmark Mediterranean peers' refining margin due to: • Refined products deficit characteristic to the Turkish market . Access to cheaper sources of crude oil Med Complex 4.2 4.8 5.4 4.0 4.6 1.7 2.0 2.7 12 10 Month Annual 8 5.5 6 4 2.9 2.0 2 1.2 0 W -2 Jan-08 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Jan-12 Jan-13 Jan-14 Jan-15 Jan-16 Jan-17 Jan-18 Jan-19 . Ability to use heavier and sour crudes . Proximity to major suppliers . • Reduces transport costs Implemented cost reduction measures ● Energy efficiency programs. . Capacity to produce higher value added range of refined products • Direct pipeline connections with domestic clients ● High export capability Investor Presentation KEY FINANCIALS www.tupras.com.tr 16 Tüpraş Gross Margin Tüpraş Net Margin Mediterranean 14 14.7 12 12.9 11.9 11.2 10 10.6 9.6 8 11.0 9.3 8.1 6 4 20 3.2 2.5 6.5 6.0 5.3 4.8 4.6 4.0 3.5 2.7 1.7 2.0 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 H1 2019 26#27Income Statement (Million TL) We generated 1.5 bn TL EBITDA and 870 mn TL net income in Q2 2019. Q2 2019 Q2 6M 6M % % 2018 2019 2018 Net sales COGS Gross Profit Operating Expenses 23,953 20,081 19% 44,661 33,502 33% -22,282 -17,860 25% -41,998 -30,212 39% 1,671 2,221 -25% 2,662 3,290 -19% -420 -277 52% -793 -545 46% Income/Loss from other operations 82 -877 -309 -988 Operating Profit 1,333 1,066 25% 1,561 1,756 -11% Income/Loss from equity investment 47 86 -45% 110 138 -20% Operating Profit before financial income/loss 1,379 1,152 20% 1,671 1,894 -12% Financial income/expense -796 -227 -1,397 -497 Profit Before Tax 584 925 -37% 274 1,397 -80% Net Profit (excluding minority interest) 870 1,027 -15% 495 1,405 -65% EBITDA* Inventory Gain/Loss EBITDA CCS* 1,495 2,210 -32% 2,346 3,243 -28% 675 1,016 -34% 976 1,283 -24% 820 1,194 -31% 1,370 1,960 -30% * On CMB reports, EBIT includes extra items such as FX impacts of trade receivables and payables. In our EBITDA calculation, FX related items are excluded from EBIT as customary in international practices. Investor Presentation www.tupras.com.tr KEY FINANCIALS 27#28Financial Highlights Tüpraş generated 851 MTL EBITDA in Q1 2019. EBITDA (mn TL) Net Income (mn TL) * ■ Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 Q1 Q2 Q3 Q4 8,908 3,812 3,713 1,887 493 5,882 2,550 992 1,766 1,237 3,799 3,778 1,793 3,396 815 1,528 1,208 2,346 1,457 542 750 803 1,505 1,144 1,542 495 2,210 1,027 867 1,495 710 581 1,080 688 1,575 869 870 367 1,033 851 275 331 378 335 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2015 2016 2017 2018 -375 2019 1.8 Current Ratio & Net Debt / R. EBITDA Net Debt/ R. EBITDA Current Ratio 1.8 35% 1.3 1.3 1.1 1.2 1.3 1.0 1.1 1.1 Return on Average Equity** 22% 41% 37% 27% 2015 2016 2017 2018 Q2 2019 2015 2016 2017 2018 Q2 2019 *Excluding minority interest **Calculation based on rolling net income Investor Presentation www.tupras.com.tr 28#29Balance Sheet Analysis Tight balance sheet management improved working capital. Net Debt (Billion TL) 12.0 10.6 10.1 Redemption Schedule (Billion TL) Loan Eurobond 7.5 TL bond Investor Presentation www.tupras.com.tr 6.9 6.1 6.2 4.0 1.6 1.5 1.0 4.4 Dec-15 Dec-16 Dec-17 Dec-18 Mar-19 Jun-19 1 year 1-2 years 2-3 years 3-4 years 4-5 years Over 5 years 0.8 Working Capital Requirements (Billion TL) 4.7 -0.2 2.1 1.6 -0.7 • Proactive Financial Management Ensured diverse funding base with favorable rates • Working Capital continues to improve with better payable terms Dec-15 Dec-16 Dec-17 Dec-18 Mar-19 Jun-19 29#30Q2 Profit Before Tax Bridge (2018-2019) Decline in profit before tax was driven by weaker cracks, narrower differentials and RUP maintenance. Million TL 925 275 -422 -371 374 -311 113 584 Q2 2018 PBT Production Differentials RUP Maintanence Crack Margin FX and Interest Other Q2 2019 PBT Investor Presentation www.tupras.com.tr 30#312018 Profit Before Tax Bridge 2018 PBT was lower mainly due to Crude Oil Differential and Crack Margin impacts. With the help of FX based pricing, FX losses incurred from payables were recovered with Inventory Gains. Million TL 4,474 2017 2,129 311 660 293 1,779 164 3,724 Inventory Gain Crack Margin Crude Oil Differential Production FX Other 2018 Investor Presentation KEY FINANCIALS www.tupras.com.tr 31#32Dividend (TL) 18 Earings per Share Gross Dividend Total Payout 16 One of the highest dividend 14 yield in BIST 12 10 8 6 10.18 4500 15.22 14.83 15.15 3500 13.60 2500 1500 7.16 6.50 6.20 5.83 4.96 4 3.93 4.78 3.85 500 3.24 2.94 2.98 2 2.31 2.50 1.73 1.58 0 -500 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2012/2013 EPS includes the tax incentive. Investor Presentation www.tupras.com.tr KEY FINANCIALS 32#33Investments (Million $) 9.5 Nelson complexity High white product yield Process more heavier and sour crudes • Run all refineries with 100% capacity utilization • 6.5 bn USD investments since privatization Avg. 943 mn$ 1,213 Ongoing Projects Avg. 278 mn$ 628 974 959 Avg. 220 mn$ 400 355 274 344 213 186 177 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 185 138 2017 2018 70 2019Q1 Investor Presentation KEY FINANCIALS www.tupras.com.tr Revamp of Crude Unit ⚫ FCC Modernization ⚫ New Sulphur Units Energy Saving Projects Optimization of conversion units 33#34H1 2019 Results H1 2.7 Refining Margins ($/bbl) Med Margin Tüpraş Net Margin 3.5 Med FY Exp Tüpraş FY Target 012 3 4 5 6 7 +3.5 $/bbl net refining margin in H1 2019. Investor Presentation www.tupras.com.tr KEY FINANCIALS 80 H1 Capacity utilization (%) 95.0 95% total capacity utilization in H1 2019. 0 20 40 60 80 100 Operationals Production Sales 28 30 13.7 14.4 H1 2019 Target 14.4 mn tons of sales and 13.7 m tons of production in H1 2019. Capex (mn $) 70 mn$ CAPEX in H1 2019. 200 70 H1 2019 Target 34#35Tüpraş Balance Sheet Investor Presentation www.tupras.com.tr Million TL 30.06.2019 31.12.2018 Diff. Diff. (%) Current Assets 29,731 20,962 8,769 42 Cash & C. Equivalents 9,889 5,983 3,907 65 Receivables 8,700 5,429 3,271 60 Derivatives 270 176 95 54 Inventories 8,384 6,765 1,620 24 Pre-paid expenses 256 109 148 136 Other Current Assets 2,230 2,502 -271 -11 Long Term Assets 26,550 19,074 7,477 39 Financial Assets & Subsidiaries 1,308 1,271 37 3 Fixed Assets 20,260 12,397 7,863 63 Derivatives 140 168 -28 -17 Pre-paid expenses 257 378 -121 -32 Deferred Tax 3,131 3,566 -435 -12 Other Long Term Assets 1,455 1,293 162 13 Total Assets Short Term Liabilities 56,281 40,036 16,245 41 26,992 15,950 11,042 69 Financial Loans 4,063 4,113 -50 -1 Payables 17,949 7,663 10,286 134 Derivatives 193 236 -43 -18 Provisions 206 80 126 156 Other ST Liabilities 4,581 3,857 724 19 Long Term Liabilities 16,264 14,140 5,203 15 Financial Loans Payables & Provisions 15,968 13,836 2,132 15 259 257 2 1 Derivatives Other LT Liabilities 28 42 -14 -34 9 5 4 91 Total equity attributable to equity holders of the parent 12,885 9,825 3,060 31 Minority Interests Total Liabilities & Equity 140 56,281 121 19 16 40,036 16,245 41 35#36Creating Competitive & Sustainable Shareholder Value Tüpraş has one of the highest Corporate Governance Ratings. Board Stakeholders Transparency Shareholders Overall 0 25 50 75 Investor Presentation www.tupras.com.tr KEY FINANCIALS 92.9 Foreign Currency Long Term Fitch Ratings MOODY'S S&P Global Ratings Tüpraş BB- (Neg.) B1 (Negative) Türkiye BB- (Neg.) B1 (Negative) B+ (Stable) 99.5 Koç Holding B1 (Negative) BB- (Stable) 94.0 95.5 94.8 100 Analyst Recommendations 27% 73% Buy Hold 36#37Financial Policy Financial Discipline: Risk management policies focusing on areas such as leverage, liquidity, counterparty risk, commodity, interest rate and currency exposure. Leverage & Liquidity Counterparty Risk Policy Interest Rate & Fx Proactive in liquidity risk management & targets/limits for financial ratios: Net financial debt/EBITDA Net financial debt/Equity Current ratio Share of long term debt Deposit is kept within bank-based limits. Credit rating assessment and strong capital base. Cap on the maximum deposit allocated to a single bank. Threshold for deposits subject to banks shareholders' equity. The fixed/floating profile of financial debt. Proactive management of FX risk with derivative instruments Zero FX exposure target. Inventory Hedging Policy: Commodity Hedging Policy Operational hedge: Optimum stock policy & forward pricing mechanism. Financial hedge: Expected inventory exposure for the year end is hedged by using derivatives. Hedging ratio increasing throughout the year. Crack Margin Hedging Policy: Financial hedge: Crack margin (gasoline, diesel, jet fuel, fuel oil) risk mitigation by using derivatives. Statistical mechanical approach: Historical average prices + standard deviations. Hedge ratio between %0-%50 with up to 1 year hedge tenor. Investor Presentation www.tupras.com.tr KEY FINANCIALS 37#38FX Exposure Management (30 June 2019) Tüpraş continues to employ strict FX policies to mitigate currency risks stemming from volatility. • A significant portion of the Group's crude oil and refined product purchases are denominated in US Dollars. In addition, the Group finances its capital expenditures mostly through borrowings denominated in US Dollars. • Natural Hedge: The Group is able to mitigate some of the impact of volatility in exchange rates through natural hedges: crude oil and refined product inventories are US Dollar denominated assets. • Cash flow Hedge: RUP Facility financing loans designated as hedging instruments of highly probable export revenues. • As a general Koç Holding financial policy, Group companies are allowed to keep foreign exchange positions within certain limits. * Cash flow hedge accounting: 899 mn $ Investor Presentation www.tupras.com.tr Consolidated Assets Consolidated Liabilities Million $ Cash 1,057 Receivables & Other Assets 97 Stock 1,406 Forward & CFH 2,082 +2 mn $ Payables 2,193 ST Financial Loans 528 • RUP: 179 • Other: 349 LT Financial Loans 1,919 RUP: 688 Eurobond: 700 Other Loans: 531 38#39Tüpraş: Growing, Resilient, Profitable Tüpraş is a compelling investment case with strong sales growth, resilient and profitable operational and financial structure. KFC . Growing Operating in a diesel short market (supplies 45% of the market), along with strong jet growth Well poised to capture future opportunities including IMO 2020 with its output complexity • Continuous investment in logistics, infrastructure and trading capabilities Resilient Strong balance sheet with no immediate rollover requirement. • Secure receivables portfolio, tight working capital management Pricing mechanism in place to address commodity and FX fluctuations Profitable • Benefits from full system optimization given high complexity, procurement and logistics flexibility • Prudent hedging practices to ensure stable earnings outlook High dividend pay-out ratio annually Investor Presentation www.tupras.com.tr 39#40OUTLOOK#412019 Refinery Maintenance Schedule Duration Unit Quarter Reason Status (weeks) Plt 100 CDU Q4 2-3 Periodic İzmir Plt 9200 CCR Q1 3 RUP Q1&Q2 11 İzmit Plt 2 Crude Oil & Vacuum Q4 7-8 Periodic Plt 7 FCC Q4 5-6 Periodic Completed RUP Maintenance Preparation and planning phase: 2018 Maintenance Start: Feb 26 Completed Catalyst changes Checks on distillation columns, heat exchangers and furnaces Detailed planned maintenance Kırıkkale Plt 100/1100 Crude Oil & Completed as of 13 May 2019 Batman Q1 10 Completed Vacuum Investor Presentation www.tupras.com.tr 41#422019 Expectations Med Complex Margin Tüpraş Net Margin Med Complex margin expectation in 2019 is 3.75 -4.25 $/bbl. Net Tüpraş refinery margin expectation in 2019 is 6.0 - 7.0 $/bbl. Operations . Capacity utilization target is 95-100%. Production: ~28 million tons • Total sales: ~30 million tons Investment Investor Presentation www.tupras.com.tr Refining investments expectation is revised as ~200 Million $. 42#43Competition # 1 (SOCAR-STAR Refinery) STAR Refinery (Total Cap. 10 mn ton) Production 2019 mn ton Credit 3.3 Billion $ Equity 2.4 Billion $ Total Goldman Sachs has acquired a 13% stake in SOCAR Turkey for $1.3 billion. Goldman Sachs has the right to resell 10% of its stakes to Socar, and the remaining 3% to 'Sermaye Investments Limited' owned by SOCAR within 6 years at the same price. • 3.3 billion $ credit agreement. First 4 years grace period total 15-18 years term. Project finance is supplied to company (1.5 Billion $). Tüpraş Star Total Turkish Demand Balance LPG 1.1 0.3 1.4 4.1 -2.7 Petchem Feeds 0.2 2.6 2.8 Gasoline 6.1 6.1 2.4 3.7 5.7 Billion $ Investment • It is expected to be operational as of 2019. Jet Fuel 5.2 1.6 6.8 5.2 1.6 Diesel 10.7 4.5 15.2 26.5 -11.3 Coke 0.8 0.7 1.5 4.6 -3.1 Star Refinery Production Numbers (k ton) Diesel 4,500 Jet Fuel 1,600 Fuels Sulphur 158 Petrocoke 698 LPG 260 Petrochemical Feedstock Naptha 1,600 Mixed xylene 460 Reformate 524 Investor Presentation www.tupras.com.tr OUTLOOK Fuel Oil 1.8 1.8 1.3 0.5 Bitumen 3.1 3.1 3.1 43#44Competition # 2 (Regional Competition) ● Tüpraş is competing with 71 refineries in the Mediterranean and Black Sea markets. • Mediterranean regional product balance is also affected from Middle East, North West Europe and Asia. Mediterranean Black Sea Investor Presentation www.tupras.com.tr France Croatia Spain Portugal Italy Albani Greece Turkey Morocco Algeria OUTLOOK Tunisia Libya Egypt 54 Refineries 7.8 mn bpd Moldova Ukraine Romania Bulgaria Syria Israel Turkey 17 Refineries 1.8 mn bpd Russia Georgia 44#45Marine Bunker Specification Changes and Its Effects IMO 2020: the sulphur cap for marine bunkers is reduced from 3.5% to 0.5% (5000ppm) - effective from 1 Jan 2020. HSFO Replacement Expected in 2020, million b/d Gradual Change in Marine Bunker Fuels, thousand b/d 3.5 Chart Title 0.6 0.5 1.1 14 1.3 CO 6 3 0 Current HSFO HSFO HSFO Scrubbers Non-compliance 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 ULSFO MGO ■Compliant HSFO ■Non-compliant HSFO ■ULSFO ■ MGO ■LNG Compliance can be met with: • Marine Gasoil (Diesel) Ultra Low Sulphur Fuel Oil (ULSFO) Scrubbers LNG Source Market Reports Investor Presentation www.tupras.com.tr OUTLOOK Expectations 2020 and beyond: MGO (Diesel) is expected to be the no.1 choice in 2020 ULSFO/blend becomes more widespread through the years as availability & compatibility issues get resolved Compliant HSFO use grows as scrubber numbers rise from ~2,000 after Jan 1st, 2020 (some ports started bans on open-loop scrubbers thus this projection might change) 45#46Appendix#47RUP feedstock and production (000 Tons) Raw Materials Products Natural Gas 246 Diesel Gasoline LPG Vacuum Resid 1,214 2.883 522 69 Total Production 4,250 Atm. Resid 3,036 Total Feed 4,496 Investor Presentation www.tupras.com.tr APPENDIX PetroCoke 690 Sulphur 86 47#48Tüpraş Production Flow and Yield Breakdown • Increased conversion capacity . Strong integration among refineries Investor Presentation APPENDIX www.tupras.com.tr Number Capacity Key units of units (m3/d) Flow Diagram LPG MEROX Yields (%) LPG 3.5% HYDROCRACKER 4 18200 ISOMERISATION 3 6400 CRUDE OIL CRUDE OIL 8 97000 ISOMER. VACUUM 8 42320 NAFTA SPLITTER GASOLINE NAPHTHA 22.0% UNIFINER REFORMER Benzen Saturation JET FUELOİL } 16.5% KERO/ DIESEL HDS UNIFINER REFORMER 7 16900 FCC 52 FCC Benzin HDS KERO/DIES EL (HDS) 10 37300 FCC ب کا کرد VACUMM DİST. DIESEL 33.9% HYDROC. 2 4700 Lube Oil COKER 1 8200 More than one distillation and production units LUBE OIL 0.5% COKER Bitumen NAPHTHA BITUMEN & FUEL OİL 19.9% 8 SPLITTER OTHER 3.8% LPG MEROX 6 48#49European Pump Price Comparison Gasoline (Krş / Lt) Diesel 10 (Krş / Lt) 1000 Pump No Tax Distr. Marg. Tax 889 898 1000 854 809 820 791 900 733 865 878 847 801 782 800 739 750 604 709 700 601 600 554 595 596 406 504 524 540 434 409 516 529 528 349 398 500 500 272 330 400 300 63 78 69 55 63 64 61 250 62 65 47 200 395 360 347 324 292 294 266 263 273 286 275 211 210 233 236 242 100 0 0 TR TR Spa. Ger UK Eu19 Fra. Gre. Ita. Spa. Ger. EU19 Gre. Fra. Ita. UK Not: Prices valid on 11 February 2019. Investor Presentation www.tupras.com.tr APPENDIX 49#50Tüpraş - ESG Environmental Responsibility In 2018 Amount of water recycled: 20.8 mn m³ Water recycle ratio: 69.5% Amount of solid waste recycled: 28.9 ktons Solid waste recycle ratio: 88.6% Energy cost saved: 36 million $ Greenhouse Gas Emission Reduced: 244 ktons CO2е Environmental Training Provided: 10,391 person-hrs Social Support Gender Equality HeForShe (Global cooperation with UN Women and Fenerbahçe Sports Club) I Support Social Gender Equality for My Country- (collaboration with Koç Holding) ➤ Father Support Program in Batman Refinery Education ➤ Operational sponsorship for TEGV's¹ «Firefly Mobile Learning Units Project» (262,627 students in 10 years) Scholarship fund for TEV² : «Our Energy For Equality Never Ends>> Culture & Sports ➤ Young Musicians on World Stages ➤ Support for the Batman Disabled Sports Club Association and Batman Tüpraşspor Football Club Investor Presentation ESG www.tupras.com.tr 1 Education Volunteers Foundation of Turkey 2 Turkish Education Foundation Governance Excellence One of the highest Corporate Governance Ratings³ Board 92.9 Stakeholders 99.5 Transparency 94.0 Shareholders 95.5 Overall 94.8 0 25 50 75 100 Foreign Currency Fitch Ratings MOODY'S S&P Global Ratings Long Term Tüpraş BB- B1 Türkiye BB- B1 B+ Koç Holding B1 BB- 50 3 Provided by CMB compliant SAHA Corporate Governance and Rating Services Inc. (October 2018)#51Koç Holding Turkey's Leading Investment Holding Company Turkey's largest industrial and services group in terms of revenues, exports, employees, taxes paid and market capitalization. . Turkey's Leading Investment Holding Company • The only Turkish company in Fortuna 5001. • 20% CAGR in consolidated profit2 the last five years. Pioneer in its Sectors Leading positions with clear competitive advantages in sectors with long-term growth potential such as energy, automotive, consumer durables and finance. Notes Data as of YE18, 2018 GDP reflects the projection of Turkish government's New Economic Program. (1) 2018 Report (2) In TL terms between 2014-18 Investor Presentation www.tupras.com.tr APPENDIX Combined Revenues/ GDP 8% Total Exports / Turkey's Exports 10% Total MCap on Borsa Istanbul 16% 51#52Tüpras Koc

Download to PowerPoint

Download presentation as an editable powerpoint.

Related

Q3 2020 Investor Presentation image

Q3 2020 Investor Presentation

Energy

New Fortress Energy Q3 2023 Investor Presentation image

New Fortress Energy Q3 2023 Investor Presentation

Energy

Helix Energy Solutions Company Update image

Helix Energy Solutions Company Update

Energy

2nd Quarter 2020 Investor Update image

2nd Quarter 2020 Investor Update

Energy

Helix Energy Solutions 2006 Annual Report image

Helix Energy Solutions 2006 Annual Report

Energy

Investor Presentation image

Investor Presentation

Energy

Investor Presentation image

Investor Presentation

Energy

Premium Rock, Returns, Runway 3Q 2022 Earnings image

Premium Rock, Returns, Runway 3Q 2022 Earnings

Energy