Uranium Market Update

Released by

1 of 23

Category

Energy

Published

January 2022

Slides

Transcriptions

#192 Ս YELLOW CAKE PLC PURE EXPOSURE TO THE URANIUM COMMODITY INVESTOR PRESENTATION February 2022#2Disclaimer This presentation (the "Presentation") is provided on a strictly private and confidential basis for information purposes only and does not constitute, and should not be construed as, an offer to sell or issue securities or otherwise constitute an invitation or inducement to any person to purchase, underwrite, subscribe for or otherwise acquire securities in Yellow Cake plc (the "Company"). By viewing this Presentation, you will be deemed to have agreed to the obligations and restrictions set out below. The information contained in this Presentation is being made only to, and is only directed at, persons to whom such information may lawfully be communicated. This Presentation may not be (in whole or in part) reproduced, distributed, stored, introduced into a retrieval system of any nature or disclosed in any way to any other person without the prior written consent of the Company. Without prejudice to the foregoing paragraph, this Presentation is being distributed only to, and is directed only at, persons who: (A) in the United Kingdom have professional experience in matters relating to investments who fall within the definition of "investment professionals" in Article 19(5) of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 (Financial Promotion) Order 2005, as amended, (the "Order") or are high net worth bodies corporate, unincorporated associations and partnerships and trustees of high value trusts or other persons falling within Articles 49(2)(a)-(d) of the Order (and the contents of this Presentation have not been approved by an authorised person for the purposes of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000) and who in each case are also Qualified Investors (as defined below); (B) in member states of the European Economic Area ("EEA") are qualified investors within the meaning of Article 2(1)(e) of the Prospectus Directive (Directive 2003/71/EC), as amended ("Qualified Investors"); (C) are residents of Canada or otherwise subject to the securities laws of Canada that are "permitted clients" as defined in National Instrument 31-103 - Registration Requirements, Exemptions and Ongoing Registrant Obligations; (D) in Australia, are sophisticated investors or professional investors as those terms are defined in sub- sections 708(8) and 708(11) of the Corporations Act; (E) in South Africa, are one or more of the persons or entities referred to in section 96(1) of the Companies Act; (F) in Hong Kong, are professional investors for the purposes of the Securities and Futures Ordinance (Chapter 571 of the Laws of Hong Kong); (G) in Singapore, are accredited investors or institutional investors as those terms are defined in Section 4A of the Securities and Futures Act (Chapter 289) of Singapore or (H) are any other person to whom this Presentation may lawfully be provided and all such persons are "relevant persons". Any investment or investment activity to which this communication relates is only available to and will only be engaged in with such relevant persons and all other persons should not act on this Presentation or any of its contents. It is a condition of you receiving this Presentation that you are a person to whom the Presentation may lawfully be provided and by viewing this Presentation you warrant and represent to the Company that you are such a person. While and past performance is not a guide to future performance this presentation refers to previous performances. No representations or warranties, express or implied are given in, or in respect of, this Presentation including the accuracy or completeness of the information herein and the information contained in this Presentation has not been independently verified. To the fullest extent permitted by law in no circumstances will the Company, 308 Services or any of their respective subsidiaries, shareholders, affiliates, representatives, partners, directors, officers, employees, advisers or agents be responsible or liable for any losses of any nature arising from the use of this Presentation, its contents, its omissions, reliance on the information contained within it, or on opinions communicated in relation thereto or otherwise arising in connection therewith by any person. 92 U YELLOW CAKE PLC Recipients of this Presentation are not to construe its contents, or any prior or subsequent communications from or with the Company or its representatives as investment, legal or tax advice. In addition, this Presentation does not purport to be all-inclusive or to contain all of the information that may be required to make a full analysis of the Company. Recipients of this Presentation should each make their own evaluation of the Company and of the relevance and adequacy of the information and should make such other investigations as they deem necessary. This Presentation contains "forward looking statements". These statements contain the words "anticipate", "believe", "intend", "estimate", "expect", "likely" and words of similar meeting. All statements other than statements of historical facts included in this Presentation including, without limitation, those regarding the Company's business strategy, plans and the future market environment are forward-looking statements. Such forward-looking statements are based on numerous assumptions regarding the Company's business strategies and the environment in which the Company will operate in the future. These forward-looking statements speak only as at the date of this presentation, and the Company, 308 Services and their shareholders, affiliates, representatives, partners, directors, officers, employees, advisers and agents, expressly disclaim any obligation or undertaking to update any forward-looking statements contained herein. No statement in this presentation is intended to constitute a profit forecast. By participating in this Presentation or by accepting any copy of this Presentation, you agree to be bound by the foregoing limitations. 1#3Yellow Cake Strategy To buy and hold physical uranium and to deliver maximum exposure to the resurging uranium market Investment Highlights Holds physical U308 No exposure to exploration, development, mining or processing risks Low-cost structure Access to US$100m p.a. of uranium at the spot price Liquid traded share 92 U כ YELLOW CAKE PLC 2#4Uranium market update January 2022 Spot Market Overview (1) 92 U כ YELLOW CAKE PLC Spot market volumes increased during January reaching 6.4 mlbs., compared to only 2.7 mlbs. for the month of December but still short of the November quantity of 7.5 mlbs. The volume increase seemed to be spot market buying in response to the social unrest in the Republic of Kazakhstan, the world's largest uranium producer ■ The spot U30 price also reflected the supply concerns having initially slightly declined to $42.00/lb. on 4 January from the December month-end price of $42.10/lb. but then rising to $45.25/lb. on 5 January, a one-day increase of almost 8% ■ Having reached a month high of $45.80/lb. (11-12 January), the price then slid ending the month at $43.00/lb. ◉ Longer term uranium price indicators showed either stability (Long-Term price remained at $40.50/lb.) or slight improvement (3- year forward price increased from $43.75/lb. up to $44.25/lb. while the 5-year forward price increased by 0.50/lb., ending the month at $45.25/lb. UxC Annual Spot Market Review (2) Total spot volume aggregated 101.8 mlbs. as compared to the 2020 level of 94.5 mlbs. Uranium producers bought a total of 13.0 mlbs. (12.8%) down significantly from the 2020 level of 29.8 mlbs. while utilities purchased 17.5 mlbs. (17.2%) also a decrease from the previous year's total of 18.6 mlbs. Intermediaries/Others (including financial entities) comprised the largest buying group acquiring 71.3 mlbs. (70% of the total) ■ During 2021, utilities sold only 1.7 mlbs. (1.7%) into the spot market while uranium producers sold 29.3 mlbs. (28.8%), more than double the 2020 volume of 12.6 mlbs. ■ Intermediaries/Others sold a total of 70.8 mlbs., representing 69.5% of the market aggregate Source: 1. Ux Weekly; "The Market"; 31 January 2022 2. Ux Weekly; "2021 Uranium Spot Market Review"; 24 January 2022 3#5Uranium market update January 2022 Kazatomprom(1) 92 U כ YELLOW CAKE PLC On 2 January 2022, civil unrest surfaced in Kazakhstan related to an increase in fuel prices, which in turn led to the declaration of a two-week nationwide state of emergency on 5 January Kazatomprom reassured its global uranium customers that uranium production and transport operations remained unaffected, although the nationwide rail service was impacted for a short period December quarter production volumes totalled 15.2 mlbs., a substantial increase from 4Q 2020 when aggregate output reached 11.4 mlbs. Annual production improved by more than 12% year-on-year totalling 56.7 mlbs., as compared to 50.6 mlbs. for 2020 when uranium operations were curtailed in response to the COVID-19 pandemic ■ Production guidance for 2022 stands at 54.6-57.2 mlbs. which could be impacted by pandemic-related supply chain “challenges.” Kazatomprom stated "pandemic-related supply chain challenges have continued to result in limited access to certain key operating materials and equipment (production reagents, certain types of pipes and pumps, specialized equipment, drilling rigs) which had a material impact on the Company's wellfield development and production schedules in 2021, adding additional risk to production in 2022 and resulting in a wider range for the expected production volume." Source: 1. Kazatomprom 4Q21 Operations and Trading Update; 27 January 2022#6Uranium market update January 2022 Netherlands (1) 92 U כ YELLOW CAKE PLC In mid-December, the Netherlands announced the formation of its new government accompanied by a revised climate change commitment to at least 55% CO2 reduction by 2030 ■ The Dutch government aims to reduce CO2 emissions by 70% by 2035 and 80% by 2040 The climate change agenda included the construction of two new nuclear reactors budgeted at €5 billion United Kingdom (2) ☐ The UK government is to provide GBP100 million (USD134 million) in support of the proposed Sizewell C nuclear power plant project (two EPRs producing 3.2 Gwe of electricity) which remains under evaluation The government has committed to making a Final Investment Decision on at least one large-scale nuclear power station by December 2024 Brazil(3) Brazil has executed an agreement to initiate a siting study for a planned nuclear power plant to be operational by 2050 The country currently operates the two-unit Angra NPP with a third unit expected to be built on the existing site Russia (4) The Russian News Agency, TASS, reported that the Russian Natural Resources Ministry released a report on the state and use of mineral resources in Russia in 2020 which stated "It is possible that a shortage of uranium raw materials suitable for development in the current economic conditions may emerge in Russia by 2030-2035, which is due to the depletion of reserves of developed uranium deposits" Source: 1. 2. Energy Monitor; "The Netherlands opens the door to new nuclear with €5bn"; 27 January 2022 World Nuclear News; "Sizewell C gets financial backing from UK government": 27 January 2022 3. World Nuclear News; "Brazil looks to nuclear expansion"; 17 January 2022 4. TASS; "Russia may face uranium raw materials shortage by 2030-2035, ministry says"; 22 December 2022 5#7Yellow Cake corporate summary Corporate overview GBP share price and uranium price (1,3) 60 Last share price (1) £3.20 NAV per share(2) £3.36 50 Market cap (mm) (1) £586 Shares out. (mm) 183.7 Shares held in treasury (mm)(1) 4.2 52 week high £4.00 52 week low £2.16 Uranium Spot Price (US$/lb.) 40 40 30 20 Analyst coverage and rating Bank of America BERENBERG PARTNERSHIP SINCE 1590 Buy Buy CANTOR Fitzgerald Buy Canaccord Buy cg Genuity Capital Markets 10 92 U כ YELLOW CAKE PLC 4.50 4.00 3.50 3.00 2.50 2.00 1.50 1.00 0.50 0.00 0 Jan 21 Feb 21 Mar 21 Apr 21 May 21 Jun 21 Jul 21 Aug 21 Sep 21 Oct 21 Nov 21 Dec 21 Jan 22 Feb 22 Uranium Spot Price Blue chip shareholder register Kopernik Global Investors, LLC MMCAP Fund BRANDES INVESTMENT TRUST Amitell Yellow Cake Share Price URANIUM ROYALTY CORP GLOBAL X by Mirae Asset Shell Asset Management JD Squared URNM NORTH SHORE GLOBAL URANIUM HINING ETF Source: 1) Cap IQ on 16 February 2022 2) Yellow Cake's estimated net asset value on 15 February. See calculation details on slide 8 3) UxC LLC 16 February 2022 6 Yellow Cake Share Price (£)#8Market Cap (£) Yellow Cake has seen a significant increase in trading volumes since February 2021(1) ■ Main drivers for the increase are: -Increased number of shares on issue and increased market capitalisation 92 U כ YELLOW CAKE PLC - Increased retail volume 800.0mm 700.0mm 600.0mm 500.0mm 400.0mm 300.0mm 200.0mm 100.0mm Source: 0 Significant improvement in uranium market sentiment US$140m fundraise 2 March Feb 2021 Mar 2021 1) Cap IQ 15 February 2022 US$87m fundraise 21 June US$150m fundraise 27 November 0 Apr 2021 May 2021 Jun 2021 Jul 2021 Jul 2021 Aug 2021 Sep 2021 Oct 2021 Nov 2021 Dec 2021 Jan 2022 12.0mm 10.0mm 8.0mm 6.0mm 4.0mm 2.0mm 7 YCA Volume (shares)#9Proforma estimated net asset value as at 15 February 2022 92 U כ YELLOW CAKE PLC Investment in Uranium Units Uranium oxide in concentrates (“U3O8″)(1) (A) lb. 18,805,601 U3O8 fair value per pound (2) (B) US$/lb. 43.25 U3O8 fair value (A) x (B) = (C) US$ mm 813.3 Cash and other net current assets/(liabilities)(3) (D) US$ mm 20.9 Net asset value in US$ mm (C) + (D) = (E) US$ mm 834.3 Exchange Rate (F) USD/GBP 1.3522 Net asset value in £ mm (E)/(F) = (G) £ mm 617 Number of shares in issue less shares held in treasury(4) Net asset value per share (H) (G)/(H) 183,671,232 £/share 3.36 Source: 1) Comprises 15.8 million lb of U3Og held on 31 December 2021, plus 2.02 million lb of U3Og to be bought back from Kazatomprom in terms of the Repurchase and Buyback Option Agreement with Kazatomprom for delivery by April 2022, as described in Yellow Cake's quarterly operating update of 31 January 2022, plus 0.95 million lb of U₂Og to be purchased from Kazatomprom, subject to contract, expected to be delivered by June 2022 2) Fair value is based on the daily spot price published by UXC, LLC on 15 February 2022 3) Includes cash and other current assets and liabilities of US$153.6 million as at 31 December 2021, less a cash consideration of US$92.6 million to be paid to Kazatomprom on delivery of 2.02 million lb of U30g by April 2022, less a cash consideration of US$45.2 million to be paid to Kazatomprom (subject to contract) in respect of 0.95 million lb of U3O8, expected to be delivered by June 2022 4) Net asset value per share on 15 February 2022 is calculated assuming 187,740,730 ordinary shares in issue less 4,069,498 shares held in treasury 8#10Strategic relationship with Kazatomprom allows for value accretive growth 92 U כ YELLOW CAKE PLC Option Agreement with Kazatomprom, the world's largest and lowest cost producer (1) ■ 10-year Framework Agreement with Kazatomprom ■ Yellow Cake has the right to purchase up to US$100m of U30 annually ■ Term of the option agreement extends to 2027 ■ Purchase price is locked in based on the prevailing spot price at the time Yellow Cake elects to make a purchase under the Agreement ■ The Company can also purchase uranium from other sources if advantageous Source: 1) World Nuclear Association, Uranium and Nuclear Power in Kazakhstan (February 2021) 9#1192 U כ Yellow Cake uranium purchases Kazatomprom Purchases Since IPO ■ 8.1mlb. at US$21.01 /lb. - July 2018 ■ 350klb. at US$23.30 /lb. - August 2018 ■ 1.3mlb. at US$25.88/lb. - May 2019 ■ 3.5mlb. at US$28.95/lb. - June 2021 ■ 2.0mlb. at US$32.23 /lb. - December 2021 ■ 950klb. at US$47.58 /lb. - Delivery in Q2 2022 (subject to contract) YELLOW CAKE PLC 2021 Spot Market Purchases ■ 1.4mlb. at an average price of US$29.88/lb. ■ 2.0mlb. at US$46.32/lb. - November 2021 10#12Nuclear is a key element of global energy supply One of the cleanest sources of energy Climate change and ESG becoming a global focus point Nuclear energy provides reliable baseload power Nuclear is increasingly being recognized as a contributor to a lower carbon future 92 כן YELLOW CAKE PLC 11#13Tonnes CO2e/GWh Nuclear is a clean reliable base load energy source Lifecycle emissions of natural gas generation are 15 times greater than nuclear ■ Lifecycle emissions of coal generation are 30 times greater than nuclear 92 U כ YELLOW CAKE PLC 1,200 1,000 800 600 400 200 Lignite Summary of Lifecycle GHG Emission Intensity Coal Oil Natural Gas Solar OV Biomass Source: 1) Comparison of Lifecycle Greenhouse Gas Emissions of Various Electricity Generation Sources, World Nuclear Association, July 2011 Nuclear Hydroelectric Wind 12#14Increased focus on climate change and ESG Investor-led climate action steering committee ☐ Represents over 600 global investors and US$65 trillion in assets ■ Issued letters to 167 global businesses with market cap of $10.3 trillion, requesting they commit to net-zero business strategies Climate Action 100+ 92 U כ YELLOW CAKE PLC Nearly a quarter of the world's largest companies have made net zero commitments Carbon Neutral by 2030 Carbon Neutral by 2040 VISA Carbon Neutral by 2050 GLENCORE Nestle MULBERRY BBC sky pwc Microsoft BARRATT DEVELOPMENTS PLC NHS Coca-Cola EUROPACIFIC PARTNERS HIGHLAND SPRING HM Revenue an & Customs pepsi (Henkel) AVIVA INVESTORS QANTAS equinor CATHAY PACIFIC DELL BARCLAYS bp American Airlines vodafone TOTAL 12#15Increasing national commitments to carbon neutrality include nuclear Commitments to carbon neutrality(1) ■ Canada - 2050 ■ China - 2060 92 U כ YELLOW CAKE PLC ◉ European Union - 2050 ■ France - 2050 ■ Japan - 2050 ■ United Kingdom - 2050 ■ U.S.A. - 2050 Carbon Free Energy Initiatives ■ Canada, China, Finland, France, Japan, Poland, Russia, the United States and the United Kingdom provided statements in the UNECE report in support of its findings on nuclear power's contributions to climate action ■ The United Nations Economic Commission for Europe (UNECE) highlighted nuclear power as an important source of low-carbon energy that can contribute to attaining carbon neutrality ☐ ■ Under the proposed taxonomy rules, nuclear projects permitted until 2045 will be classified as green, on the condition that countries can safely dispose of the toxic waste and do not create significant harm to the environment (2) Source: 1) Carbon Neutrality by 2050: the World's Most Urgent Mission 2) Technical assessment of nuclear energy with respect to the 'do no significant harm' criteria of Regulation (EU) 2020/852 ('Taxonomy Regulation'), (August 2021) 14#16Future demand for uranium is growing 92 U YELLOW CAKE PLC Global nuclear reactor fleet will continue to grow, especially in China, India and the Middle East China 18 reactors under construction, 35 planned India 8 reactors under construction, 12 planned Russia 3 reactors under construction, 27 planned UAE 2 operating reactors, 2 reactors under construction Investment in uranium Operable reactors (1) Reactors under Planned construction(1) reactors (1) Proposed reactors (1) World Nuclear Reactor Fleet 437 57 97 325 China Reactor Fleet 53 18 35 168 Source: 1) World Nuclear Association, World Nuclear Power Reactors & Uranium Requirements (February 2022) 15#17Small Modular Reactors are advancing 92 U YELLOW CAKE PLC Reactor Name Commercial Operation Development Stage Nuscal NuScale 2027 Licensing GE/Hitachi BWRX-300 2027 Licensing Holtec SMR-160 Rosatom RITM-200 2028 Licensing Constructed Rosatom BREST Built Ready Tsinghua University HTR-PM 2026 Constructed CNNC ACP-100 2026 Built Ready Rolls Royce UK-SMR 2029 Terrestrial Energy IMSR-400 2028 Source: 1) Press search and company websites Kaeri SMART Design Licensing Built Ready 16#18Long-term contracts need to be replaced Contract covering has the potential to create a rapid tightening of the spot market Future contracted coverage rates of US and European utilities 140% 116% 120% 103% 104% 99% 100% 98% 80% 60% 40% 20% 93% 84% 72% 61% 55% 92 U כ YELLOW CAKE PLC 70% 71% 67% 57% 42% 39% 21% 14% 0% 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 US Utilities Coverage EU Utilities Coverage Source: 1) US Energy Information Administration: Maximum anticipated uranium market requirements of owners and operators of U.S. civilian nuclear power reactors, 2021-2030, at end of 2020 (May 2021, Table 12) 2) Euratom Supply Agency Annual Report 2020 (2021) 17#19Global supply cuts 92 U YELLOW CAKE PLC Production curtailments have removed an estimated 77.6mlb. U3Og from the market since 2014(1) North America ■ Cameco has removed ~30mlb. from the market Kazakhstan (CIS) ■ Kazatomprom since 2018, has limited its uranium production to 80% of its nameplate capacity Supply curtailment is expected to continue through 2023 Sub Saharan Africa ■ Paladin idled both of its operations ■ Orano lowered the output of both of its mines in 2016 Source: 1) MineSpans (September 2021) U30% (mlb.) Idled uranium mine capacity (cumulative) Metal contained, mlb. U3O8 North America CIS (10) (3) (5) (6) (30) (50) 501 Oceania (22) (28) Sub-Saharan Africa China (59) (59) (70) (65) (78) (90) 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021e 2022e 18#2092 U כ Global uranium supply side is concentrated YELLOW CAKE PLC U₂O production is concentrated with the top 5 companies producing 59% of the total supply in 2020(1) Global production by company attributable share (mlb. U3O8, 2020) Mining assets Global production by mine (#, majority owned, 2020) (mlb. U30, 2020) Kazatomprom Orano Uranium One Navoi CGNPC 29.3 Top 5 Total 72.7 Other World Source: 1) MineSpans (September 2021) 11.6 11.1 12.0 122.9 8.7 19 Cigar Lake 10.1 3 Husab 0000 Olympic Dam Katco Inkai 8.6 8.0 7.4 7.0 Top 5 Total 41.1 50.2 19 Other 50 World 81.8 122.9 19#21Uranium supply-demand balance Uranium (mmlb) 250.0 200.0 150.0 100.0 50.0 92 U כ YELLOW CAKE PLC 0.0 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 Probable Project Operation On Hold Axis Title Closed Operation Operation Secondary supply Demand Source: 1) MineSpans (December 2021) 20 20#22Significant supply deficit forecast by 2030 By 2030, additional supply is needed to come online to offset demand growth; by combination of new projects and idled capacity (1,2) Primary supply Secondary supply mlb. U308 +1.5% p.a. 148.9 26.0 122.9 38.1 23.2 +2.0% p.a. 26.1 173.0 ☐ 10.0 (30.1) (7.1) 18.9 (30.5) 154.1 203.5 92 U YELLOW CAKE PLC 167.4 2020 Supply Ramp Up Probable Projects Closures & Depletion Secondary Supply Changes 2030 Supply 2030 Supply 2030 Demand Gap(2) China Other 2020 Demand Supply (Primary + Secondary) Source: 1) MineSpans December 2021 2) Base case projects: Budenovskoye 6-7, Dasa, Lance (low pH), restart of McArthur River Demand 21 24

Download to PowerPoint

Download presentation as an editable powerpoint.

Related