Yellow Cake Plc Uranium Market Overview

Released by

1 of 21

Category

Energy

Published

July 2021

Slides

Transcriptions

#192 Ս YELLOW CAKE PLC PURE EXPOSURE TO THE URANIUM COMMODITY INVESTOR PRESENTATION August 2021#2Disclaimer This presentation (the "Presentation") is provided on a strictly private and confidential basis for information purposes only and does not constitute, and should not be construed as, an offer to sell or issue securities or otherwise constitute an invitation or inducement to any person to purchase, underwrite, subscribe for or otherwise acquire securities in Yellow Cake plc (the "Company"). By viewing this Presentation, you will be deemed to have agreed to the obligations and restrictions set out below. The information contained in this Presentation is being made only to, and is only directed at, persons to whom such information may lawfully be communicated. This Presentation may not be (in whole or in part) reproduced, distributed, stored, introduced into a retrieval system of any nature or disclosed in any way to any other person without the prior written consent of the Company. Without prejudice to the foregoing paragraph, this Presentation is being distributed only to, and is directed only at, persons who: (A) in the United Kingdom have professional experience in matters relating to investments who fall within the definition of "investment professionals" in Article 19(5) of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000 (Financial Promotion) Order 2005, as amended, (the "Order") or are high net worth bodies corporate, unincorporated associations and partnerships and trustees of high value trusts or other persons falling within Articles 49(2)(a)-(d) of the Order (and the contents of this Presentation have not been approved by an authorised person for the purposes of the Financial Services and Markets Act 2000) and who in each case are also Qualified Investors (as defined below); (B) in member states of the European Economic Area ("EEA") are qualified investors within the meaning of Article 2(1)(e) of the Prospectus Directive (Directive 2003/71/EC), as amended ("Qualified Investors"); (C) are residents of Canada or otherwise subject to the securities laws of Canada that are "permitted clients" as defined in National Instrument 31-103 - Registration Requirements, Exemptions and Ongoing Registrant Obligations; (D) in Australia, are sophisticated investors or professional investors as those terms are defined in sub- sections 708(8) and 708(11) of the Corporations Act; (E) in South Africa, are one or more of the persons or entities referred to in section 96(1) of the Companies Act; (F) in Hong Kong, are professional investors for the purposes of the Securities and Futures Ordinance (Chapter 571 of the Laws of Hong Kong); (G) in Singapore, are accredited investors or institutional investors as those terms are defined in Section 4A of the Securities and Futures Act (Chapter 289) of Singapore or (H) are any other person to whom this Presentation may lawfully be provided and all such persons are "relevant persons". Any investment or investment activity to which this communication relates is only available to and will only be engaged in with such relevant persons and all other persons should not act on this Presentation or any of its contents. It is a condition of you receiving this Presentation that you are a person to whom the Presentation may lawfully be provided and by viewing this Presentation you warrant and represent to the Company that you are such a person. While and past performance is not a guide to future performance this presentation refers to previous performances. No representations or warranties, express or implied are given in, or in respect of, this Presentation including the accuracy or completeness of the information herein and the information contained in this Presentation has not been independently verified. To the fullest extent permitted by law in no circumstances will the Company, 308 Services or any of their respective subsidiaries, shareholders, affiliates, representatives, partners, directors, officers, employees, advisers or agents be responsible or liable for any losses of any nature arising from the use of this Presentation, its contents, its omissions, reliance on the information contained within it, or on opinions communicated in relation thereto or otherwise arising in connection therewith by any person. 92 U YELLOW CAKE PLC Recipients of this Presentation are not to construe its contents, or any prior or subsequent communications from or with the Company or its representatives as investment, legal or tax advice. In addition, this Presentation does not purport to be all-inclusive or to contain all of the information that may be required to make a full analysis of the Company. Recipients of this Presentation should each make their own evaluation of the Company and of the relevance and adequacy of the information and should make such other investigations as they deem necessary. This Presentation contains "forward looking statements". These statements contain the words "anticipate", "believe", "intend", "estimate", "expect", "likely" and words of similar meeting. All statements other than statements of historical facts included in this Presentation including, without limitation, those regarding the Company's business strategy, plans and the future market environment are forward-looking statements. Such forward-looking statements are based on numerous assumptions regarding the Company's business strategies and the environment in which the Company will operate in the future. These forward-looking statements speak only as at the date of this presentation, and the Company, 308 Services and their shareholders, affiliates, representatives, partners, directors, officers, employees, advisers and agents, expressly disclaim any obligation or undertaking to update any forward-looking statements contained herein. No statement in this presentation is intended to constitute a profit forecast. By participating in this Presentation or by accepting any copy of this Presentation, you agree to be bound by the foregoing limitations. 1#392 U כ Yellow Cake Strategy To buy and hold physical uranium and to deliver maximum exposure to the expected resurgence in the uranium market Industry Context Steady uranium demand growth from nuclear reactor build programme YELLOW CAKE PLC Investment Highlights Holds physical U308 Sustained low uranium prices I have led to supply cuts No exposure to exploration, development, mining or processing risks Additional supply risks due to Covid-19, with utilities set to re-enter market Low-cost structure Restricted investment into new supply sources Access to US$100 mm p.a. of uranium at the spot price 2#4Uranium market update July 2021 Spot Market Overview 92 U כ YELLOW CAKE PLC ■ The UxC U30 price strengthened reaching US$32.30 /lb at the end of July, an increase from the previous month's spot price of US$32.10 /lb(1) 8 Near-term uranium demand in July rose to 6.6 Mlb U₂O with approximately 48 Mlb (YTD) transacted in the spot market from more than 210 deals (1) 8 ▪ A total of 13 spot transactions were booked in July, made up of 11 deals involving straight U¸O, one enriched uranium product (EUP) deal, and one for enrichment services ■ For uranium, July's volume totalled over 5.6 million pounds U3O₂ equivalent under 12 transactions, bringing annual totals to 213 transactions for 42.9 million pounds U3O8 (1) Kazatomprom For Q2 2021 Kazatomprom reported 14.4 Mlb of production (100% basis) compared to 13.6 Mlb year on year ■ Uranium output reached 27.2 Mlb for the first six months of the year, comparable to the same period in 2020 (27.1 Mlb) ■ Current 2021 production guidance is in the range of 58.5 - 59.3 Mlb U3Og which is higher than 2020 output of 50.6 Mlb ■ Kazatomprom announced that it will maintain a 20% reduction of production through 2023 (compared to the planned levels under Subsoil Use Contracts) ■ Full implementation of the production restraint plan would remove 13.0 Mlb (5,000 tU) from the previously anticipated global primary supply in 2023, with uranium production in Kazakhstan remaining similar to the level expected in 2022 (2) Kazatomprom's CEO, Galymzhan Pirmatov, stated that, "the Company does not expect to return to full Subsoil Use Contract production levels until a sustained market recovery is evident, supply and demand conditions signal a need for more uranium, and the Company's pipeline of mid to long-term contract negotiations implies there is a low risk of produced volumes further delaying the recovery."(2) Source: 1) UxC LLC August 2021 2) Kazatomprom Announces 2023 Production Plans, Ortalyk Transaction Update 2 July 3#5Uranium market update July 2021 Cameco 92 U כ YELLOW CAKE PLC Cameco reported (28 July 2021, Q2 Result Conference Call) Cigar Lake production could be as much as 12.0 Mlb in 2021 (subject to any further disruptions due to Covid-19 or forest fires in the area) with Cameco receiving "up to 6 Mlb" Regarding 2021 market purchases, the company is forecasting 11-13 Mlb, which includes: - volumes that have already been delivered - material already under contract for 2021 delivery pounds purchased from it's equity position (40%) in JV Inkai (Kazakhstan) purchase of excess inventory from NUKEM During 2021 Cameco is entitled to purchase as much as 5.3 Mlb from JV Inkai, representing 59.4% of the 2021 planned production of 9.0 Mlb Regarding the term market, the company reported an additional 7 Mlb had been added to their contract portfolio supplementing the 9 Mlb secured earlier in the year - Since 2019 Cameco has executed over 60 Mlb of new term contracts Sprott and UPC On 28 April 2021, Uranium Participation Corporation (UPC) announced an agreement with Sprott Asset Management to "modernize business structure and pursue US listing." ■ The proposed plan of arrangement would transform UPC into a closed end investment trust managed by Sprott Asset Management (SAM), with UPC becoming a subsidiary of the Sprott Physical Uranium Trust ("SPUT"). On 26 May 2021, UPC announced the completion of a C$80.5 million (US$ 66.0 million) bought deal financing the net proceeds of which will be used "to fund future purchases of U3O and/or UF6 and for general corporate purposes." ■ The proposed plan of arrangement was supported by UPC shareholders in a 7 July 2021 vote with 99.9% of the votes cast supported the plan. Sprott announced on 19 July 2021 that the proposed transaction has been completed and SPUT began trading on the Toronto Stock Exchange.#6Uranium market update July 2021 Euratom Supply Agency (ESA) ■ The Euratom Supply Agency (ESA) released it's "Annual Report - 2020" (2 July, 2021) which documents nuclear fuel activities by the commercial nuclear power industry within the European Union and the United Kingdom 92 U כ YELLOW CAKE PLC ■ Gross uranium requirements totalled 41.1 Mlb in 2020 with the utilities purchasing 32.7 Mlb (97% under multi-year/term uranium agreements) ■ The five principal EU uranium suppliers included Niger, Russia, Kazakhstan, Canada and Australia which in total provided 91.3% of the total uranium acquired during the year ■ Uranium inventories fell slightly from the 2019 level to 110.2 Mlb, down considerably from the 2016 inventory level of 133.9 Mlb ■ Forward uranium coverage ranges from 116% in 2024 declining to 57% by 2029 International Energy Agency (IEA) ■ The International Energy Agency (IEA) released the third revision of it's Special Report entitled, "Net Zero by 2050, A Roadmap for the Global Energy Sector." ■ This comprehensive study examines requisite policies to reach the goal of net zero GHG emissions by the middle of this century ■ Nuclear power plays a significant role in the analysis increasing from an assumed current 415 Gwe installed capacity up to 812 Gwe by 2050 (Note: Based upon current reactor fuel design and management strategies, annual uranium requirements would approximate 365 Mlb per year by 2050) ■ The report concludes that "At its peak in the early 2030s, global nuclear capacity additions reach 30 Gwe per year, five- times the rate of the past decade." 5#792 U YELLOW CAKE PLC Estimated net asset value On 13 August, the ordinary shares of Yellow Cake closed on the LSE at a value of GBP 2.61 per share, which represents a 9% premium to the net asset value of GBP 2.39 per share. Investment in Uranium Units Uranium oxide in concentrates ("U3O8") (1) (A) lb 13,855,601 U3O8 fair value per pound (2) (B) US$/lb 30.68 U3O8 fair value (2) (A) x (B) = (C) US$ mm 425.1 Uranium derivative liability(3) (D) US$ mm (3.4) Cash and other net current assets/(liabilities) (4) (E) US$ mm 87.3 Net asset value in US$ mm Exchange Rate (C) + (D) + (E) = (F) (G) US$ mm 509.0 USD/GBP 1.3853 Net asset value in £ mm Number of shares in issue less shares held in treasury (F)/(G) = (H) (1) £ mm 367.4 153,671,232 Net asset value per share (H) / (1) £/share 2.39 Source: 1) Comprises 13,305,601 lb of U308 held on 30 June 2021 plus 550,000 lb of U3Og purchased in July and August 2021 2) Fair value is based on the Weekly Price published by UxC, LLC on 12 July 2021 3) As at 31 March 2021 4) Cash and other current assets and liabilities of US$105.1 million as at 30 June 2021 less a cash consideration of US$17.8 million paid for the purchase of 550,000 lb of U₂Og in July and August 2021 6#8Yellow Cake corporate summary Corporate overview GBP share price and uranium price (1,3) Last share price (1) £2.61 $35 NAV per share(2) £2.39 $34 Market cap (mm) (1) £400 Shares out. (mm) 153.6 Shares held in treasury (mm) (1) 4.2 52 week high £2.91 Uranium Price (USD/lb) $33 $32 $31 $30 $29 52 week low £1.84 $28 $27 Analyst coverage and rating Bank of America Buy BERENBERG Buy PARTNERSHIP SINCE 1590 CANTOR Bitzgerald Buy cg /Canaccord Genuity Buy Capital Markets M 92 U כ YELLOW CAKE PLC مل ہیں Jul 20 Jul 20 Aug 20 Sep 20 Oct 20 Nov 20 Dec 20 Jan 21 Feb 21 Mar 21 Apr 21 May 21 Jun 21 Jul 21 Aug 21 Uranium Spot Price Yellow Cake Share Price Blue chip shareholder registry Kopernik Global Investors, LLC MMCAP Fund BRANDES INVESTMENT TRUST URANIUM ROYALTY CORP EXTRACT CAPITAL JURNM NORTH SHORE GLOBAL URANIUM MINING ETF Sachem Cove Partners JD Squared azValor. asset management Source: Renaissance Capital 1) Cap IQ on 13 August Buy 2) Yellow Cake's estimated net asset value on 16 August. See calculation on page 3) UxC LLC August 2021 7 £2.90 £2.70 £2.50 £2.30 £2.10 £1.90 £1.70 £1.50 Share Price (GBp/sh)#9Strategic relationship with Kazatomprom allows for value accretive growth 92 U כ YELLOW CAKE PLC Option Agreement with Kazatomprom, the world's largest and lowest cost producer (1) ■ 10-year Framework Agreement with Kazatomprom ■ Yellow Cake has the right to purchase up to US$100m of U30% annually ■ Term of the option agreement extends to 2027 ■ Purchase price is locked in based on the prevailing spot price at the time of purchase ■ The Company can also source uranium from any other supplier if advantageous Source: 1) World Nuclear Association, Uranium and Nuclear Power in Kazakhstan (February 2021) 8 00#102020 was a transition year for the uranium market Uranium market impacts ■ COVID-19 pandemic highlighted the supply side vulnerability ■ Nuclear energy demonstrated its resilience as a reliable, low-cost electricity supply source ■ US policy issues overhanging the market were resolved ■ A number of countries committed to carbon neutrality and included nuclear power in policy statements 92 U כ YELLOW CAKE PLC 9#1192 Investor interest in uranium equities increased U significantly since Q4 2020 Uranium Equities Performance - LTM (1) - Global X Uranium ETF v Uranium spot price כ YELLOW CAKE PLC 140.00% 120.00% 100.00% 80.00% 60.00% 40.00% 20.00% 0.00% (20.00%) October 2020 November 2020 December 2020 January 2021 Source: 1) Cap IQ, July 2021 سیا February 2021 March 2021 April 2021 May 2021 June 2021 July 2021 Global X Uranium ETF Uranium Spot Price 10#12Yellow Cake raises c.US$225 m in H1-2021 on the back of strong investor demand June 2021 - US$86.9m Equity Raise ■ Issued 25 million new ordinary shares at a price of £2.50 per share ■ Raised gross proceeds of £62.5 million (approximately US$86.9 million) 8 92 U כ YELLOW CAKE PLC ■ Proceeds partly applied to acquire a further 550,000 lb of U30g in the spot market at an average price of US$32.35/lb ■ The Company also expects to conclude an agreement with Kazatomprom to purchase a further 2.0 million lb of U₂Og at a price of US$32.23 /lb 8 March 2021 - US$138.5m Equity Raise ■ Equity raise upsized to approximately US$140m from approximately US$110m due to strong investor demand ■ Yellow Cake able to fully exercise its 2021 Kazatomprom option of US$100m at a uranium price of US$28.95/lb ■ Strong support from retail shareholders, US$5m raised from 380 retail investors via Primary Bid ■ Yellow Cake made additional spot market purchases: March Purchased 540,000 lb for US$15m - May Purchased 343,053 lb for US$10m ■ Uranium Royalty Corporation exercised its option to acquire from Yellow Cake 348,068 lb U30% for a cash consideration of US$10m in April 2021 11#13Yellow Cake has seen a significant increase in trading volumes since February 2021 ■ Main drivers for the increase are: -Increased number of shares on issue and increased market capitalisation 92 U YELLOW CAKE PLC Market Cap. (£ mm) - Increased retail volume 500 450 400 350 300 250 200 150 100 50 Significant improvements in the uranium market sentiment 14.0 US$140m fundraise 26th February US$87m fundraise 16th June 0 ויד Aug 20 Sep 20 Oct 20 Nov 20 Dec 20 Jan 21 Feb 21 Mar 21 Apr 21 May 21 Jun 21 Jul 21 Aug 21 Volume Yellow Cake plc - Market Cap. 12.0 10.0 8.0 6.0 4.0 2.0 Shares Traded (m) 12#14Nuclear is a key element of global energy supply Lowest non-carbon operating cost per mWh (1) One of the lowest sources of carbon emissions per mWh Nuclear energy provides reliable baseload power Nuclear energy is sustainable Nuclear is increasingly being recognised as a contributor to a low carbon future Growing interest in Small Modular Reactors Source: 1) National Energy Association - 2015. Cost includes both investment cost and O&M, including overnight cost (with contingency) as well as implied IDC, discounted at 7% 92 כן YELLOW CAKE PLC 13#15Future demand Global nuclear reactor fleet will continue to grow, especially in China, India and the Middle East China India Russia 18 reactors under construction, 37 planned 7 reactors under construction, 14 planned 2 reactors under construction, 25 planned 92 U YELLOW CAKE PLC UAE 3 reactors under construction Investment in uranium Operable reactors (1) Reactors under Planned Proposed construction (1) reactors (1) reactors (1) World Nuclear Reactor Fleet 443 56 99 325 China Reactor Fleet 51 18 37 168 Source 1) World Nuclear Association, World Nuclear Power Reactors & Uranium Requirements (July 2021) 14#16Increasing commitments to carbon neutrality includes nuclear Commitments to carbon neutrality(1) ■ Canada - 2050 ■ China - 2060 ◉ European Union - 2050 ■ France - 2050 ■ Japan 2050 ■ United Kingdom - 2050 ■ U.S.A. - 2050 Carbon Free Energy Initiatives ■ United States of America officially re-joined the Paris Agreement ■ The proposed "American Jobs Plan," (proposed to be budgeted at US$2.25 trillion) would incentivise clean electricity from nuclear reactors ■ European Commission's, Joint Research Centre (JRC) draft report concluded that nuclear energy does not harm the European Green Deal sustainability objectives (2) 92 U YELLOW CAKE PLC Source: 1) Carbon Neutrality by 2050: the World's Most Urgent Mission 2) Technical assessment of nuclear energy with respect to the 'do no significant harm' criteria of Regulation (EU) 2020/852 ('Taxonomy Regulation') 15#17Growing interest in small Modular Reactors 92 U YELLOW CAKE PLC ■ SMR's generate up to 300MW of electricity and are more flexible and more affordable than large reactors(1) ■ SMR's are ideal for smaller grids and remote locations ■ Across 9 countries there are currently 4 SMR'S operating, 3 SMR's under construction and 14 SMR's that are well developed nearing deployment(3) ■ Significant investment is going into SMR's from national governments such as the US, Canada, China and the UK as well as from global companies (3) Feedwater line(2) Steam line Containment vessel Pressuriser Steam header Reactor vessel Steam generator Hot riser tube Feedwater header Source: 1) IAEA Economic Appraisal of Small Modular Reactor (SMR) Projects: Methodologies and Applications (112007) 2) Nuscale 3) WNA, Small Nuclear Reactors October 2020 Reactor core Module support skirt 16#18Long-term contracts need to be replaced Contract covering has the potential to create a rapid tightening of the spot market Future contracted coverage rates of US and European utilities 140% 120% 116% 103% 104% 99% 100% 98% 80% 60% 40% 20% 93% 84% 72% 61% 55% 92 U כ YELLOW CAKE PLC 70% 71% 67% 57% 42% 39% 21% 14% 0% 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 US Utilities Coverage EU Utilities Coverage Source 1) US Energy Information Administration: Maximum anticipated uranium market requirements of owners and operators of U.S. civilian nuclear power reactors, 2021-2030, at end of 2020 (May 2021, Table 12) 2) Euratom Supply Agency Annual Report 2020 (2021) 17#19World U3Og mining production (mlb) Global supply cuts Producers have made significant production cuts, exacerbated by COVID-19 Production cuts seen from 2016(1) 180 150 120 90 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 (2) Source 1) World Nuclear Association, World Uranium Mining Production (August 2019) 2) UxC LLC"Uranium Market Outlook Q4 December" 2020 18 92 U כ YELLOW CAKE PLC#2092 U כ YELLOW CAKE PLC Growing mine supply gap Underinvestment in exploration and development is leading to a potential future supply gap. The Reference market scenario incorporated in the latest WNA nuclear fuel market report shows an immediate global market supply deficit (1) Supply/demand imbalance (U3O8 tu) 120,000 100,000 80,000 60,000 40,000 20,000 Source 0 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 2024 2025 2026 2027 2028 2029 2030 2031 2032 2033 2034 2035 2036 2037 2038 2039 2040 Demand t Secondary Supplies (Group 1) Prospective Mines Supply-Restarted Idled Capacity I Mines Under Development Restarted Idled Capacity 1) The Nuclear Fuel Report - Global Scenarios for Demand and Supply Availability 2019-2040 (September 2019) Current Capacity Planned Mines Reactor Requirement, Reference Scenario 19

Download to PowerPoint

Download presentation as an editable powerpoint.

Related