Currency and Interest Rate Outlook
K
KASIKORNTHAI
Currency and Interest Rate Outlook
USD/THB: End Period
ธนาคารกสิกรไทย
开泰银行 KASIKORNBANK
Interest Rate Trend
Bt
35.97 35.84
4.00
Fed Funds rate
BOT's 1-Day Repurchase rate
37
32.68 32.91
2.75
33 30.60
32.66
32.55
32.75
2.25
29.95
2.00
29.98
2.00
1.50 1.50
1.50 1.75
1.25
29
4Q12 4Q13 4Q14 4Q15 4Q16 4Q17 4Q18 4Q19 4Q20 4Q21F
0.00
■ Baht appreciated to around Bt32.6 per USD late
August 2021 after a correction on short position on
THB against USD
However, Baht would hit 32.75 per USD at the end of
2021 as Fed's tapering pressure, impact of COVID-19
to Thai economy and current account deficit
0.50
0.50
0-0.25 0-0.25 0-0.25 0.25-0.50 0.50-0.75 1.25-1.50 2.25-2.50 1.50-1.75 0.00-0.25 0.00-0.25
Dec-12 Dec-13 Dec-14 Dec-15 Dec-16 Dec-17 Dec-18 Dec-19 Dec-20 Dec-21F
■Fed would announce the QE tapering program later
this year, and keep the Fed Funds rate of 0.00-
0.25% in response to more persist inflation
pressure and improving job market data
BOT would maintain its policy rate at 0.50% in 2021
after maintaining a FIDF fee cut at 0.23% until the
end of 2022 and pointing credit measures having
more effective liquidity to effected groups
Note: F is estimated by KBank Capital Markets Research (as of August 18, 2021)
บริการทุกระดับประทับใจ
K
KASIKORNTHAI
ธนาคารกสิกรไทย
开泰银行 KASIKORNBANK
Monthly Economic Conditions: May-June 2021
143
2019
2020
YTD
Units: YoY %, or indicated otherwise
Private Consumption Index (PCI)
Non-durables Index
Durables Index
Service Index
Passenger Car Sales
Motorcycle Sales
Private Investment Index (PII)
-2.6
-5.2
Construction Material Sales Index
-0.7
-3.5
4Q-20 1Q-21 Dec-20 Jan-21
2.3 -1.9 1.8 -1.1
2.3 -1.7 -1.9 -4.2 -0.1
-1.7 -12.3 1.1 -2.2 6.9
2.9 -21.3 -23.4 -17.3 -27.8
-1.6 -28.4 0.5 -10.1 10.6
-3.3 -10.2 -4.0 0.7 11.0
0.9 6.9 6.2
-5.9 3.9 -1.3
Feb-21
Mar-21 Apr-21 May-21 Jun-21 2020
3.3 -4.6
-2.5
3.6 12.6 0.5
1.8
-8.7
-3.2
-0.8 5.4 -4.3
-2.5
-12.3
-7.7
13.3 54.9 24.3
-29.1 -19.7 0.5 14.1 -0.6
-28.2 -15.8 29.3 119.8 44.7
-6.2 -5.7 15.3 63.5 42.3
2.5 8.1 9.8
10.7
-8.9
16.5
17.1 28.0
12.6
3.8
-0.9
8.5
-6.1
223
2.3
1.7
Domestic Machinery Sales at constant prices
-5.4
-4.9 7.4
9.4 11.4
6.2
8.4
12.8
36.7 57.2
21.9
Imports of Capital Goods at constant prices
-0.9
-11.4 -4.1
16.3 4.8
2.9
30.6
19.8 20.9 30.3
30.3
Newly Registered Motor Vehicles for Investment
-3.0
-10.9
5.8
Manufacturing Production Index
Capacity Utilization
Agriculture Production Index
Agriculture Price Index
1.9
Tourist arrival growth
Exports (Custom basis)
Price
Volume
Imports (Custom basis)
-1.8 3.1
Volume
4.8
Trade Balance ($ millions) (Custom basis)
Current Account ($ millions)
Headline CPI
Core CPI
Price 0.2 -2.0
-5.7 -11.8 -4.3
10,009 24,477 3,063 516
711 182 796
38,206 16,539 -1,168 -2,551 -829 -673 -1,071
-806 -1298 -2624
0.71 -0.90 -0.40 -0.53 -0.27 -0.34 -1.17 -0.08 3.41 2.44
0.52 0.30 0.18 0.12 0.19 0.21 0.04 0.09 0.30 0.49
0.1 27.7 -4.0 -5.2
-3.6 -9.3 -1.6 0.8
-2.8 -2.0 -1.3
66.0 60.8 63.8 64.7 64.2 64.7 64.3
-0.3 -4.1 -2.1 3.6 -7.5 1.3 6.7 3.0 0.6
6.1 11.1 9.7 11.3 7.1 9.1 12.8 13.3 15.1
4.6 -83.2 -99.9 -99.7 -99.8 -99.8
-99.7 -99.2 N.A. N.A.
-2.6 -6.0 -2.0 0.9
4.7 0.2 -2.7 8.3 13.1
41.6
0.3 -0.8 -1.4 -1.9 -3.1
-3.7 -5.9 -1.6 5.0 4.5
-4.8 -12.4 -4.2 9.4 3.6
-1.3
9.3 16.6 35.4
5.9
65.2
8.6
18.0 25.8
4.3
■Thailand's economic indicators
in May reflected a declining
trend in economic activity, due
to the pandemic
9.4 Private consumption index
contracted at a higher pace
MOM, but improved YoY, due to
low base effect
■ Exports strongly increased, as
global demand started to
65.2 65.2
64.9
recover
0.6
3.0
11.4
Current account recorded a
-99.5
deficit for seven consecutive
10.8
1.2
964
-202
■ June headline inflation and core
inflation edged higher at a lower
rate, due to government
measures relating to utility
expenses
Sources: Bank of Thailand (BOT), Ministry of Commerce (MOC), Office of Industrial Economics (OIE), and Office of Agricultural Economics (OAE)
บริการทุกระดับประทับใจ
-2.6 -2.4 -0.7 -0.2 1.9
-1.2 -2.2 11.8 14.6 38.5
-5.2 21.9 14.2 29.7 63.5
-0.9 2.2 8.4 10.1 7.7
-6.0 21.1 2.9 14.7 43.2
-0.8
11.2
months, due mainly to service
balance
21.5
6.8
12.1
7
1,494
-6473
1.25 0.83
0.52 0.23
144View entire presentation