Australian Housing Dynamics and Affordability
% of income
AUSTRALIAN HOUSING DYNAMICS: A COOLING MARKET
HOUSING PRICE FORECASTS BY STATE³
HOUSE PRICE GROWTH¹
Total housing prices, y/y % change (calendar year)
+
-8
-12
16
12
00
yoy %
5 yr Cumulative 2013-2018
5 yr Cumulative Sep 14-Sep
19
Sep 2019
All
dwellings
Houses Units
All
dwellings
Houses Units
All
dwellings
Houses
Units
Sydney
-4.7
-5.0
-4.1
43.4
46.8
35.9
19.6
20.6
16.8
Melbourne
-3.9
-5.9
0.5
40.5
50.8
21.4
25.9
30.2
17.3
Brisbane
-2.1
-2.3
-1.5
15.5
19.8
-1.4
6.9
10.3
-6.6
Adelaide
-1.1
-1.4
0.3
16.8
17.9
10.9
9.9
10.5
7.1
Perth
-9.0
-9.0
-9.2
-11.8
-9.8
-19.8
-20.7
-19.3
-26.2
Darwin
-9.4
-11.3
-5.6
-22.1
-14.2
-34.0
-30.0
-25.3
-36.9
Hobart
Darwin Canberra
Canberra
1.3
2.1
-1.5
21.4
27.3
3.3
22.8
28.3
5.2
2020 (forecast)
Hobart
2.5
3.4
-0.7
36.2
36.1
36.9
38.5
41.3
27.4
Australia Sydney Melbourne Brisbane Adelaide Perth
2016 2017
*Capital city weighted average
60
GO
55
50
45
40
35
30
25
2018 2019 (forecast)
OVERALL AFFORDABILITY2,3
3
10
9
8
Λ
Years of income
*
20
01 02 03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19
Mortgage payment* as a % of income (LHS)
Rent payment as a % of income (LHS)
-Price in years of income (RHS)
Mortgage repayments on 80% LVR of median capital city house price
** At 15% savings rate on average state/territory household disposable income
2
Sources: 1. CoreLogic RP Data values as at September 2019. 2. Residex,, RBA. 3. ANZ Research
Number of years to save 20% of capital city
dwelling price*
14
12
10
DEPOSIT AFFORDABILITY2,3
96
Sydney
Brisbane
Perth
98
00
02
04
06
08
10
Melbourne
Adelaide
Hobart
12
14
16
18
20
Australian capital city weighted average
* At 15% savings rate on average state/territory household disposable income
ANZ 119View entire presentation