Investor Presentaiton
Collective Provisions and Scenario Outcomes
Overlays maintained for FY23 given economic uncertainty with more weighting given to the probability of severe economic downside.
Great
Southern
Bank
Jun 22
50%
Jun 23
55%
Dec 23
50%
Base Case
Downside
•
.
.
•
Base
Scenario Weighting
5%
40%
5%
Collective Provision Movement
2.2
34.1
30%
15%
(2.3)
2.5
32.1
(0.2)
0.1
30.6
29.5
8.1
(6.9)
10%
35%
5%
Upside Downside □ Severe Downside
Inflation returns to target within the RBA's projected timeframe
Economy continues to grow over forecast period
Unemployment increases are modest
Growth in house prices are maintained at modest levels
•
Economy falls into 'technical recession'
•
Unemployment rates increase beyond a neutral unemployment level
House prices return to negative growth rates
Larger reductions in customer spending which brings forward
monetary policy easing, avoiding deep recession
-3.6%
Jun 21
Covid
·
Remote and other more severe events
Severe
•
Inflation may remain above RBA's target band which limits RBA's ability
to ease monetary policy
Macro & Credit
Model Provision
Overlays Mvmt
Jun 22
•
Upside
Economic indicators modestly more favorable than expected in base
scenario
+8.8%
Macro &
Model
Overlays
Credit
Provision
Mvmt
Jun 23
+6.2%
Macro &
Model
Overlays
Credit
Provision
Mvmt
Dec 23
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