GRS 2023 Capital Market Assumption Set

Capital Market Assumption Set (CMA) (1) 1 2 3 Investment Return Assumption • Range of Expectations from Experts We will compare results using VPIC's asset allocation to our own survey of investment consultants that work with public sector GRS 2023 CMAM Distribution of 10-Year Average Geometric Probability of Net Nominal Return exceeding 40th 50th 60th 7.00% (2) (3) (4) (5) 5.20% 6.22% 7.25% 42.41% 5.43% 6.57% 7.72% 46.22% 6.05% 7.15% 8.27% 51.38% 4 5.97% 7.18% 8.40% 51.50% retirement systems 5 5.99% 7.21% 8.44% 51.71% 6 6.43% 7.62% 8.83% 55.24% 7 6.55% 7.65% 8.77% 55.93% 8 6.58% 7.68% 8.78% 56.20% • There are both shorter- 9 6.70% 7.78% 8.88% 57.24% term (7-10 year) and 10 6.92% 7.93% 8.95% 59.24% 11 6.82% 7.97% 9.14% 58.43% longer term (20-30 year) expectations Average 6.24% 7.36% 8.49% 53.23% Average from last 3 CMAMS 6.61% GRS 10

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