Westpac New Zealand Economic and Sustainability Strategy Update
New Zealand economy
The New Zealand economy contracted by 2.9% in 2020 and quarterly GDP is
still 1% below pre-Covid levels. That compares favourably to most of NZs peers
in the global economy
75
Westpac Economics forecasts economic growth of +4.2% in 2021 and +4.4% in
2022
70
0
•
•
•
The outlook remains uneven across sectors:
Industries that are closely linked to the international border, like tourism and
hospitality, are continuing to struggle. While travel bubbles are being
established, ongoing restrictions on travel mean conditions in tourism-related
sectors are set to remain challenging for some time
In contrast, policy stimulus and the elimination of the virus in NZ mean that
conditions in domestically focused industries like residential construction
have been firmer
There has also been strength in commodity export prices, especially for dairy
products
65
60
GDP (Real, quarterly $bn)
Westpac forecasts
75
- 70
65
Pre-Covid trend (based on
February 2020 forecasts)
60
Current forecasts
2023
55
2024
55
55
2018
2019
Source: Statistics NZ, Westpac Economics
2020
2021
2022
International visitor arrivals (monthly, thousands)
350
350
300
Westpac
300
forecast
250
250
200
200
150
150
100
100
50
50
0
0
2015
2017
2019
2021
2023
Source: Stats NZ, Westpac
28View entire presentation