Economic and Investment Outlook

Sustained inflation an obvious risk Phillips curve historically has held in Ireland Inflation is broad: >50% of products in CPI basket are seeing Multiple years in early 2000s with unemployment below 5% >5% annual inflation and strong wage growth 100 90 80 70 60 di 50 40 30 20 10 01 2015 2016 2017 2018 2019 2020 2021 2022 2023 <0% 0-2% 12-3% 13-5% >=5% Source: CSO Gníomhaireacht Bainistíochta an Chisteáin Náisiúnta National Treasury Management Agency * Excludes agriculture incomes 00 Nominal COE growth per head* 0 4 6 2 2023f Covid outliers -2 I I I I I I I 2 4 6 8 10 12 14 16 18 20 22 Unemployment rate Source: CSO, Eurostat 19

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