Energy Security Scenarios
THE ENERGY SECURITY SCENARIOS
MOLECULAR FUELS REMAIN IMPORTANT
Low carbon fuels in final energy
Low carbon fuels in final energy
Sky 2050
EJ per year
Archipelagos
EJ per year
60
60
Biofuels, synthetic fuels and hydrogen
all have increasing roles
Liquid biofuels increase, but 1st generation
ethanol peaks before 2035. 2nd generation
fuels grow from 2025.
Hydrogen emerges in the 2020s and is
quick to ramp up in Sky 2050.
■ In 2050, oil and gas derived final energy
fuels still total 107 EJ in Sky 2050
(vs. 230 EJ in 2019), over four times that
of low carbon fuels.
50
40
40
30
20
20
Shell plc | March 22, 2023
10
50
40
30
20
10
0
0
2000
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
2000
2010
2020
2030
2040
2050
1st generation biofuels
Power-to-liquids synthetic fuels
2nd generation biofuels
Hydrogen
Biogas
Fuels made from waste
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