Canadian Housing Market: Engineering a Soft Landing
Canadian Housing Market
Engineering a "soft landing"
• Canada: Positive sales and price momentum returning
after multiple years of policy-induced slowdown:
。 In July 2019, national-level home sales rose a healthy +3.5%
m/m¹ the fifth consecutive monthly increase
Price Growth by Dwelling Type
Price Growth by Dwelling Type
20
15
。 Average sales prices and the composite MLS Home Price
Index2 are trending higher (top chart)
10
。 Sales-to-new listings ratio climbed to 59.8% in July 2019.
While still indicative of balanced supply-demand conditions,
the ratio was at its highest point since January 2018
Greater Toronto: Recovery in sales volumes. Market is
largely balanced
• Greater Vancouver: Recovery less established. Sales
activity has risen by more than 20% in two of the past
three months. Home purchases are trending moderately
higher in other Southern BC centers
5
0
Single Family
---Townhouse
Apartment
Composite
MLS Home Price
Index, aggregate,
-5
y/y % change
16
17
18
19
Toronto & Vancouver Home Sales
140
home sales, 000s of units
annualized, SA
Greater Toronto
120
Canada
Jun-19
Jul-19
Jul-19
m/m*
m/m*
y/y**
100
Sales (% change)
0.6
3.5
7.4
80
New listings (% change)
0.7
-0.4
-1.0
Average price (% change)
1.7
2.6
3.5
60
Jun-19
Jul-19
Greater Vancouver
Sales-to-new listings ratio (level)*
57.6
59.9
40
Months inventory (level)*
5.0
4.7
20
*Seasonally adjusted **Not seasonally adjusted
1 Sales and listings figures reported in seasonally-adjusted m/m terms, while MLS HPI growth rates reported as non-seasonally-adjusted y/y
2 Measure of real estate price appreciation that removes distortions related to variations in the mix of sales across unit types
3 Sources for charts and table: Scotiabank Economics, CREA.
HD
Actual
10-year avg.
0
10
11
12
13
14
15 16 17 18
19
Scotiabank®
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