Enerplus Q1 2023 Update
enerPLUS
Bakken oil price strength supported by ample pipeline capacity
Bakken oil production & takeaway(1)
Millions of bbl/d
Oil price diffs
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Enerplus Bakken oil price differential vs WTI ($/bbl)
+$0.50/bbl 2023 GUIDANCE
$1.09
|
I above WTI
I
2014
2015
2016
2017
-$3.72
2018
-$3.78
2019
2020
2021
-$2.15
2022
2023
I
-$3.98
-$5.39
-$7.46
-$9.44
-$12.94
Basin not expected to test egress capacity
Pre-DAPL
Significant rail utilization led to
DAPL in service June 2017
Differentials strengthened due
to increased pipeline egress
1.8
wider differentials
1.6
1.4
DAPL
1.2
1.0
Production
0.8
0.6
0.4
0.2
0.0
Jan-14
Jan-15
Jan-16
Jan-17
Pipelines
(ex DAPL)
Rail volumes (2)
Jan-18
Jan-19
Jan-20
COVID/OPEC related oil price shock
led to reduced basin production &
increased spare pipeline capacity
1) Source: North Dakota Industrial Commission (NDIC), Company estimates, Wood Mackenzie. Production is shown net of local refining demand.
2) Forecast rail volumes assume 80 mb/d are contracted going forward.
Production forecast based on 50 rigs
Production forecast based on current rig
count (41)
Production forecast based on 30 rigs
Jan-21
Jan-22
Jan-23
Jan-24
Jan-25
Jan-26
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