Hawaii General Fund Tax Revenue Forecast
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Forecasting and forecast errors
Here is the growth rate that would be projected if we utilize the low, high,
and average shares of revenue for the six months of the fiscal year, i.e.,
January through June, based upon the share of total annual collections.
received as of the end of December.
The projections are done after removing the effects of one-off events,
such as the refund delays in FY 2010 and the allocations to the Hawaii
Hurricane Relief Fund in FY's 2014 and 2015.
Using the low, high and average of the shares over the past decade:
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The low projected revenue growth rate is -4.5%
The high projected revenue growth rate is 15.2%
The average projected revenue growth rate is 6.7%.
Because of the wide range of potential forecasts, this exercise shows how
forecasting is challenging. The following figure shows the size of the errors
in the Council's General Fund tax revenue forecasts in recent years.
The figure shows the error in the September, January and March forecasts.View entire presentation