Insurgency Success Factors and Rebel Legitimacy
temporary success. Likewise, gains in smaller-scale successes in insurgencies, such as
sustainable support of populations, can indicate stronger levels of success than temporary de
facto status or control of territory. For example, al-Shabab has not achieved control of official
governing structures, but has achieved sustainable success in popular support by providing
welfare services to populations the government lacks the capacity to provide 45.
Several studies address how and why insurgencies end. The RAND corporation finalized
research on 87 insurgencies in the twentieth century to determine factors that contribute to
ending insurgency. Insurgencies were grouped into three categories: 1) those that ended with
insurgent success; 2) those that ended with state success; and 3) those that ended without sate or
insurgent success. The study noted that each insurgency was influenced by local factors, but
several noted patterns emerged. First, actors that won insurgencies tended to have substantially
higher proportions of civilian support. Similarly, actors that lost insurgencies had lower
proportions of civilian support. Insurgencies that effectively captures political systems and
mobilization of resources had substantially higher chances of success. States were more likely to
achieve this, as states were more likely to have access to political and economic structures at the
beginning of a conflict. The study also notes that the end of an insurgency does not require the
full eradication of an insurgent organization or state 46.
Many government counterinsurgency manuals also include detailed descriptions of factors
that indicate insurgent successes or failures. Factors include evidence of civilian support,
economic control, political control, and negotiations with legitimate actors 47.
Several academic studies also provide insight into the factors that influence success in
rebellion. Fearon and Laitin (2004) present one of the more clear-cut descriptions of rebel
success, crediting success to natural resources, presence of ethnic conflict, and distance between
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