Currency and Interest Rate Outlook
% YoY of MPI
K
KASIKORNTHAI
ธนาคารกสิกรไทย
开泰银行 KASIKORNBANK
KR Household Economic Condition Index (KR-ECI)
■ The third wave of COVID-19, which emerged in early April, has yet been brought under control as the number of daily
infections remains at an elevated level. The prolonged pandemic caused the KR-ECI to slip to 36.7 in June 2021, from
the 37.3 reported for May and 37.2 recorded in January 2021.
■ The 3-month Expected KR-ECI also dropped to 38.9 in June 2021, against the 39.4 recorded in May, suggesting that
households were still concerned about the rising cost of living.
KR Household Economic Condition Index (KR-ECI)
KR-ECI
50.0
48.0
46.0
44.0
42.0
40.0
38.0
36.0
34.0
32.0
30.0
Source: KResearch
Current KR-ECI -3-month Expected KR-ECI
39.4
38.9
37.3
36.7
Components of 3-month Expected KR-ECI
3-month Expected KR-ECI
31.6
32.5
41.1
42.4
41.6
42.6
29.9
30.0
37.0
36.2
■Jun-21
May-21
T
10
20
30
40
50
Notes: The KR Household Economic Condition Index (KR-ECI) has been devised by KResearch to monitor household sentiment towards economic conditions at
the current level and over the next three months. Any reading above 50 reflects positive sentiment and below 50 negative sentiment.
- Research sample includes households in Bangkok and Metropolitan Area (BMA).
KR-ECI consists of household savings, household income, household debt, household expenses excluding debt and prices of consumer goods.
บริการทุกระดับประทับใจ
K
KASIKORNTHAI
ธนาคารกสิกรไทย
开泰银行 KASIKORNBANK
Economic Condition Highlights: May-June 2021
May21 MPI edged higher MOM, due to export situation, while
CAPU remained flat
Activities in real estate market, except condominium registrations,
were higher in 1Q21
10
-10
3220225
Jan-17 Jul-17
25.8
85
75
65.2
65
55
45
35
Jan-18 Jul-18 Jan-19
-MPI (Ihs)
Jul-19 Jan-20 Jul-20
-%Capacity Utilization (rhs)
Jan-21
% Capacity Utilization Rate
лол %
400%
300%
200%
100%
0%
-100%
1Q09 1Q10 1Q11 1Q12 1Q13 1Q14 1Q15 1Q16 1Q17 1Q18 1Q19 1Q20 1Q21
Construction areas permitted Nationwide
Condominium Registration Nationwide
0.02
-0.21
-0.51
New Housing registered in BKK and Vicinity
Jun21 headline inflation and core inflation were up by 1.25% YoY
and 0.52% YoY, respectively, due mainly to very low base last year
Single house and townhouse showed small growth in 1Q21, but
prices of land increased at higher rate
1.25
1.0
4.00
20.0
3.00
2.00
0.5
10.0
1.00
%MoM
0.00
-1.00
0.0
лол%
0.0
-2.00
0.52
-3.00
-10.0
-0.5
-4.00
Jan-17 May17 Sep-17 Jan-18 May 18 Sep-18 Jan-19 May 19 Sep-19 Jan-20 May 20 Sep-20 Jan-21 May21
Headline CPI (MoM-hs)
Core CP I(MoM-Its)
Headline CPI (Y OY -rhs)
Core CP I(Y OY -rhs)
7.5
0.8
TTT
0.8
1Q09 1Q10 1Q11 1Q12 1Q13 1Q14 1Q15 1Q16 1Q17 1Q18 1Q19 1Q20 1Q21
Single House (With Land)
Sources: Bank of Thailand (BOT), Ministry of Commerce (MOC),
University of the Thai Chamber of Commerce (UTCC), and Office of Industrial Economics (OIE)
บริการทุกระดับประทับใจ
Townhouse (With Land)
Land
145
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