Investor Presentaiton
14
12
10
8
6
4202
-2
Headline Inflation
INFLATION TO DECELERATE FROM THE 2ND HALF OF 2022
Inflation Y-o-Y vs. inflation target
Sources: NBG, GeoStat
Feb-16
Apr-16
Jun-16
Aug-16
Oct-16
Dec-16
Feb-17
Apr-17
Jun-17
Aug-17
Oct-17
Dec-17
Feb-18
Target
Core Inflation
Apr-18
Jun-18
Aug-18
Oct-18
Dec-18
Feb-19
Apr-19
Jun-19
Aug-19
Oct-19
Dec-19
Feb-20
Apr-20
Jun-20
Aug-20
Oct-20
Inflation components
Source: GeoStat
Food and non-alcoholic beverages
14
12
10
Other
Transport
Alcoholic beverages and tobacco
Housing and utilities
Inflation
-2
-4
864202+
I
IV
Ī
VI
VII
VIII
IX
2019
X
IX
IIX
III
II
IV
VI
VII
VIII
IX
X
2020
IIX
IX
II
I
III
IV
> 5
2021
Dec-20
Feb-21
Apr-21
Jun-21
Aug-21
VII
VIII
IX
X
12.8 14
12
20
10
6.3 8
6
4
2
0
-2
Oct-21
GEORGIA
CAPITAL
SUPPLY SIDE PRESSURES PERSIST
We expect inflation to remain high throughout the year, and
decelerate after peaking in the beginning of 2022, due to the base
effect of utility subsidies;
All major components contributed to increasing inflation in the
past few months ā the rising contribution of transport reflects high
oil prices, while food inflation has accelerated due to global
trends, and prices on utilities have risen since the new gas tariff in
Tbilisi was approved in June 2021;
Despite GEL strengthening, imported inflation has been by far the
most significant driver of rising prices, with all of wheat,
vegetables, dairy products, meat and sugar world prices further
increasing in September, and surging gas prices expected to
further add to global inflationary pressures;
Supply side price pressures are no longer abated by weak
domestic demand, as economic recovery has been rapid;
In October, prices increased on 89% of goods/services in the
consumer basket, with annual inflation of over 5% on 71% of
goods/services and annual inflation of over 10% on 46% of
good/services.
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