Investor Presentaiton
September 2021
16%
14%
12%
10%
8%
6%
4%
2%
0%
Prudent monetary policy implemented by independent regulator
Medium-term
consumer inflation
target range: 5%+/-1%
Y-o-y inflation as of
August 2021: 10.2%
Comments
After a maintaining the soft monetary policy as a response to
Covid-19 recession, in March 2021 the NBU started the
cycle of the rate hikes to curb the inflation, raising the
key policy rates 4 times during March-Sept 2021 by 2.5 p.p.
The NBU also will stop applying its anti-crisis monetary
measures such as long-term refinancing tenders and interest
rate swap auctions at the start of Q4 2021 to boost the
efficiency of the monetary transmission mechanism
In Jul-Aug 2021, consumer inflation came out lower than had
been projected previously, yet was double digit for the first
time since 2018. Inflationary pressures were generated by
the rise in prices for certain foods and fuels and sustained
consumer demand. Inflation expectations of households are
also rising, which may lead to further NBU's policy rate hikes
CPI expectations for the following 12 months
Consumer price index (CPI) change and key policy rate
20%
18%
16%
14%
12%
10%
8%
6%
4%
2%
0%
Jun-18
Aug-18
Oct-18
Dec-18
Feb-19
Apr-19
Jun-19
CPI, y-o-y, %
Aug-19
Oct-19
Dec-19
Feb-20
Apr-20
Key policy
rate, %
Jun-20
Aug-20
Oct-20
Dec-20
Feb-21
Apr-21
10.2%
Jun-21
NBU's medium-term
inflation target range
UAH/US$ and UAH/EUR exchange rates dynamics
Aug-21
5%
Mar-18
May-18
Jul-18
Source NBU
Banks
Sep-18
Nov-18
Jan-19
Mar-19
May-19
Jul-19
Sep-19
Nov-19
Businesses
Jan-20
Mar-20
May-20
Households
Jul-20
Sep-20
38
36
34
10.0%
32
30
6.4%
28
7.2% 6.1%
26
24
22
20
П Nov-20
- Financial analysts
Jan-21
Mar-21
May-21
Jul-21
Notes
1
Jan-18
Mar-18
May-18
As of Sept 10, 2021
Jul-18
Sep-18
Nov-18
Jan-19
Mar-19
May-19
Jul-19
Sep-19
EUR
Nov-19
Jan-20
Mar-20
May-20
Jul-20
US$
Sep-20
Nov-20
Jan-21
Mar-21
May-21
Jul-21
Sep-21
11
BA
26.9
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