Etalon Group Mortgage and Real Estate Market Insights
Underpenetrated residential real estate market in Moscow and
St. Petersburg has great potential
Growth rate for Moscow and St. Petersburg housing stock over last 7 years lags
well behind other European countries, indicating huge potential for growth
2,5%
Residential stock in Moscow is disproportionally low for the population's
disposable income levels
3 000
Average annual growth of housing stock
per capita in sqm(2)
Czech Republic
2,0%
Poland
Latvia
Russia
1,5%
Bulgaria
Slovakia
Belarus
Ukraine
Hungary
Lithuania
1,0%
0,5%
Moscow
0,0%
10
112
SPB
UK
France
⚫Japan
Denmark
Germany
19,51 23,3
15
20
25
30
35
40
45
50
55
60
Housing stock per capita (sqm) in 2011(1)
Population growth in Moscow and SPb has significantly outpaced delivery of new
housing stock, while disposable income growth has also outpaced real estate
prices, improving affordability and indicating significant potential demand
Monthly gross disposable income per
capita (USD) in 2011(1)
2 500
Austria
Denmark
France
Finland
Germany
•
Sweden
• UK
2.000
231mln sqm
Gap: 184mln sqm vs
New'13: 3.1mln sqm (59x)
415min som
Moscow
1 500
Gap: 29mln sqm vs
New' 13: 2.6mln sqm (12x)
120min sqm
1 000
SPB
Russia
500
Bulgaria
0
16
21
149min sqm
Czech Republic
Poland
Latvia
•Hungary
⚫ China
26
31
36
41
46
51
Housing stock per capita (sqm) in 2011(1)
A- Potential housing stock
- Total housing stock (latest)
Mortgage to GDP ratio illustrates significant underpenetration and huge potential
for growth in demand supported by higher borrowing levels
Etalon Group
City / region
Population' 13 Cumulative
(mln)
growth'03-13
Monthly
disposable
income' 12 (USD)
Cumulative
growth'09-12
(RUB)
Moscow
12.0
+16.6%
1,566
+52.2%
Moscow region
7.0
+6.6%
956
+55.9%
Moscow and region
19.0
+12.7%
1,348
+54.2%
(MMR)
SPB
5.0
+7.2%
895
+64.0%
SPB region
1.8
+4.7%
577
+55.0%
SPB and region (SSR)
6.8
+6.6%
818
+63.1%
Other regions with
13.9
Etalon sales offices(3)
(1.4%)
956
+41.7%
Russia
143.3
(1.6%)
742
+55.1%
Note: Average USD/RUB FX rates for 2011 and 2012: 29.4 and 31.1, accordingly; average EUR/USD FX rates for 2011 and 2012: 1.39 and 1.28, accordingly
(1) 2012 data applied for Moscow
(2) Based on 2005-2011 data for Russia, SPB and SSR; 2005-2012 - for Moscow and MMR; for other countries - average growth rates for available periods
(3) Murmansk region, Krasnoyarsk region, Tyumen region, Khanty-Mansiyskiy autonomous district, Yakutia, Magadan region, Kamchatskiy krai, Khabarovkiy krai, Sakhalinsk region and Primorskiy krai
Source: Rosstat, AHML, UN, OECD, Eurostat, HelgiLibrary, World Bank, Turkish Statistical Institute, NBP, IRN, St. Petersburg Real Estate Bulletin
Etalon Group
Mortgage/GDP (2011)
Saint
Petersburg
4,1%
Moscow
2,2%
Russia 2,9%
Turkey
5,5%
Czech
Republic
13,0%
Poland
19,6%
Italy
22,9%
Austria
27,8%
France
42,4%
Finland
42,7%
Germany
45,3%
Spain
62,1%
Norway
68,6%
76,5%
78,1%
ཙྭ ༔ ཚཱ །
39
83,7%
100,9%View entire presentation