Dubai Economic Update

UAE Economic Update (cont'd) Highlights Currently liquidity conditions show improvement; at year-end though reported decline in bank deposits and lower holdings of certificates of deposit by commercial banks ■ Factors contributing to outflow in bank deposits seen in H2 2011 - unwinding of the differential between UAE and US rates - debt repayments by GRES increased remittance outflows as USD strengthened - deposit inflows in Q1 attributed to 'Arab Spring' have moved into other assets in the UAE such as property Tighter liquidity conditions could prevail into 2012, due to - higher LIBOR rates - demand for USD liquidity by European banks - European banks unwilling/unable to roll over loans maturing in 2012 - continued deleveraging by GRES 350 250 150 50 bps 50 EIBOR - LIBOR spread tightens further in 2011 bps Trends in CDS spreads during 2011 170 600 150 550 500 130 450 400 m 110 350 300 250 90 70 200 Jan-11 Feb-11 Mar-11 Apr-11 May-11 Jun-11 Jul-11 Aug-11 Sep-11 Oct-11 Nov-11 Dec-11 Dubai (Ihs). Abu Dhabi (rhs) Source: Bloomberg, Emirates NBD Research YoY Growth % 18 Bank deposit and loan growth Bank deposits 16 14 8 64208642 12 10 Bank Loans -50 -150 Jan-08 Source: Bloomberg Emirates NBD -2 Aug-09 Oct-09 Jan-09 Jan-10 Jan-11 Source: UAE Central Bank Dec-09 Feb-10 Apr-10 Jun-10 Aug-10 Oct-10 Dec-10 Feb-11 Apr-11 Jun-11 Aug-11 Oct-11 Dec-11 5

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