Q3-15 Financial Results Highlights
Emirates NBD Profile
Operating Environment
UAE Economic Update
Emirates NBD
Highlights
2015 real GDP growth forecast revised lower to 4.0% from 4.3%,
and down from 4.6% in 2014. Oil production is up 2.8%
year-to-date.
Activity in the UAE non-oil private sector has slowed this year.
Average PMI in the first ten months of 2015 was 56.5, down from
58.1 in the same period last year.
UAE PMI eased further to 54.0 in October, the lowest reading in
two-and-a-half years, suggesting a slower pace of expansion at the
start of Q4.
• Although new orders (57.6) and output (56.9) indices have declined,
they are well above the neutral 50-level, indicating robust growth.
Real GDP Growth Forecasts
Country
2012
2013
2014
2015F
2016F
UAE
6.9%
4.3%
4.6%
4.0%
4.5%
China
7.7%
7.7%
7.3%
7.0%
6.7%
Eurozone
-0.8%
-0.3% 0.9%
1.5%
1.8%
India*
4.8%
4.7%
6.9%
7.4%
8.0%
Japan
1.8%
1.6% -0.1%
1.0%
1.5%
UK
0.7%
1.7%
3.0%
2.5%
2.3%
US
2.3%
2.2%
2.4%
3.0%
3.0%
Saudi
5.4%
2.7%
3.5%
3.0%
2.5%
Egypt**
3.3%
2.1%
2.2%
4.5%
4.2%
*India data refers to fiscal year (Apr-Mar) **Egypt data refers to fiscal year (Jul-Jun)
Source: Haver Analytics, Bloomberg, Emirates NBD Research
UAE Oil production
Appendix
Strategy
M bpd
Financial & Operating Performance
3.5
3.0
2.5
2.0
1.5
3 2 2
1.0-
0.5
0.0
Dec-10
Mar-11
Jun-11
Sep-11
Dec-11
Mar-12
Jun-12
Sep-12
Dec-12
Mar-13
UAE Oil Production (Ihs)
Source: Bloomberg, Emirates NBD Research
Jun-13
Sep-13
Dec-13
OPEC oil price (rhs)
유 Mar-14
Jun-14
Sep-14
Dec-14
Mar-15
Jun-15
Sep-15
140
120
100
༈ ༄ ༅ ྂ 8༠
USD per barrel
54
550
52
56
58
60
62
UAE PMI - Non Oil Private Sector Activity
Sep
11
Jan
12
May Sep Jan
12 12 13
13 13
Source: Markit/ Emirates NBD
■UAE PMI: Output
རྗ
May Sep Jan May Sep Jan May Sep
14 14 14 15 15 15
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