Investor Presentaiton
ECONOMIC OVERVIEW
STRATEGY 2023
Looking to the Future
with Confidence
Inflation has been the main global economic
challenge in 2022, with prices in developed
economies rising at the fastest rate in more than
40 years, spurred by higher food and energy prices
as well as strong consumer demand. In response,
central banks have tightened monetary policy
aggressively by raising interest rates. The Federal
Reserve, the Bank of England and the European
Central Bank have raised rates significantly, and all
have signalled more hikes to come in 2023. Global
growth is expected to slow in 2023 as a result of
these tighter monetary policy.
In contrast, the GCC economies have grown at the
fastest pace in almost a decade in 2022, underpinned
by a double digit increase in oil production and
strong non-oil sector activity. We estimate the UAE's
non-oil economy grew by 5.6% in 2022 as tourism
and travel rebounded strongly, supporting growth
across a range of other services sectors. Several
indicators point to an increase in the population of
the UAE, which have contributed to stronger
domestic demand. Overall, we estimate GDP growth
of 7.6% in the UAE in 2022.
The outlook for 2023 is more cautious given the
weaker global environment, although the GCC
economic growth is expected to outperform that of
many developed economies. While oil and gas
output growth is expected to slow this year,
continued investment to boost production capacity
in the UAE should see the sector contribute
positively to headline GDP growth again in 2023.
We expect non-oil sector growth in the UAE to slow
to 3.5% in 2023 as slower global growth weighs on
international trade and higher interest rates dampen
consumption and private sector investment.
Public sector investment in strategic sectors
should support activity in the UAE and wider GCC
throughout 2023.
We remain optimistic on the outlook for oil prices in
2023, forecasting an average price of just over
USD 100 per barrel on Brent. Supply remains
constrained in the context of years of global
underinvestment in infrastructure and capacity.
International sanctions on Russian energy exports
may also contribute to tighter oil supply.
Notwithstanding concerns about the impact of a
global recession on demand for oil in 2023, China's
relaxation of Covid-zero restrictions could see
activity there normalise over the course of 2023,
and demand for oil could surprise on the upside.
While the high oil price in 2022 contributed to a
sizeable budget surplus in the UAE, it also fuelled
inflation, which peaked at over 7% in Dubai in
mid-2022, before easing to under 5% in Q4 2022.
We expect inflation to slow further in 2023 on
improving supply chains, softer demand and
favourable base effects.
Over the medium term, structural reforms
implemented in recent years will continue to drive
investment and growth in the UAE. These reforms
include the expansion of longer-term residency
visas to broader categories of residents, new visas
to encourage freelance and remote working as well
as wide-ranging changes to personal and labour
laws. These measures will serve to reduce barriers
to investment and attract both human and financial
capital to the UAE in the coming years.
Building onto the strong growth momentum and
financial performance in 2022, Emirates NBD is
well positioned to capitalise on key opportunities
across its network to further increase our market
share across products and services in 2023. The
organisation consistently strives to deliver an
excellent customer experience, spearhead digital
innovation and be compliant to all regulatory
standards.
In 2023, Emirates NBD maintains a positive
outlook for growth and will continue to deliver
robust performance by laying emphasis on the
following core pillars:
Emirates NBD
Deliver an excellent customer experience
Drive core business
•
Focus on future potential
•
Drive international diversification
.
Build market leading infrastructure
Develop a dynamic organisation
Deliver an excellent customer experience
In line with our vision to be the most innovative
bank for our customers, people and communities,
the Group continued to focus on developing and
launching innovative offerings. With the launch of
'ENBD X' mobile banking application, the Group
commenced a phased roll-out of the revamped
mobile and online banking platform. The app not
only delivers a faster and smoother experience
but also offers an array of instant or simplified
services and provides users an easy-to-manage
preferences centre. With the goal of reinventing
customer journeys, we are focused on
implementing Straight-Through Processing (STP)
across our services and product offerings as we
consistently leverage network benefits accruing
from digitisation.
There has been an exhibition of an all-round
performance on IPOs led by Emirates NBD Capital
(EMCAP) and supported by various units across
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بنك الإمارات دبي الوطني ))
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Emirates NBD
Emirates NBD Group Chairman H.H. Sheikh Ahmed Bin Saeed Al Maktoum
announces strategic appointments to management team
ANNUAL REPORT 20
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