Investor Presentaiton
Economic highlights (2/2)
10-Yr Govt Bond Yield & USD-IDR Exchange Rate
USD-IDR (Rp) 15,568
14,253
6.9
Inflation & BI 7-Day Reverse Repo Rate
15,455
6.9
BI 7D RRR (%)
3.50
Inflation (%) 5.51
5.50
GRUP CA
BCA
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5.75
6.4
10-Yr Govt Bond Yield (%)
2.28
1.87
Sep-21 Dec-21
Mar-22 Jun-22
Sep-22 Dec-22 Mar-23 Jun-23 Sep-23 Sep-21 Dec-21 Mar-22 Jun-22 Sep-22 Dec-22 Mar-23 Jun-23 Sep-23
Source: Indonesia Statistics (BPS), Bloomberg
• External factors drive higher Indonesia Government bond yield, and add pressures on the Rupiah in 3Q 2023.
• Bank Indonesia (BI) issues a new Rupiah denominated instrument (SRBI), offering attractive short-term yield to safeguard the currency
stability. Trade balance remained in surplus.
•
Positive real rate differentials (versus US) may allow the central bank to keep the benchmark rate at 5.75%.
.
Catalysts: 1) Budget realization is at the slowest pace since 2018. Fiscal balance stood at 0.70% of GDP in Aug-23, implying more fiscal
disbursements going forward; 2) Stronger investment flow
•
⚫ Challenges: 1) More pressure on export commodity prices may deteriorate current account deficit; 2) Higher food prices may refuel
inflationary pressure
Analyst Meeting 9M-23
PT Bank Central Asia Tbk 5View entire presentation