CIBC Investor Presentation
Forward-looking Information Variables used to estimate our Expected Credit Loss¹
Forward-Looking Information Variables
Avg. Value over the
next 12 months
Avg. Value over the
remaining forecast
period
Avg. Value over the
next 12 months
Avg. Value over the
remaining forecast
period
Avg. Value over the
next 12 months
Avg. Value over the
remaining forecast
period
As at April 30, 2021
Canadian GDP YOY Growth
Base Case
Base Case
Upside Case
Upside Case
Downside Case
Downside Case
5.3%
2.5%
7.0%
3.3%
3.4%
1.7%
US GDP YOY Growth
5.6%
2.8%
7.2%
3.9%
2.2%
1.0%
Canadian Unemployment Rate
7.2%
6.1%
6.7%
5.4%
8.4%
7.0%
US Unemployment Rate
4.9%
4.0%
4.4%
3.3%
7.1%
6.3%
Canadian Housing Price Index Growth
4.7%
4.0%
8.5%
5.6%
(2.8)%
1.4%
S&P 500 Index Growth Rate
5.0%
5.0%
10.7%
8.8%
(7.2)%
(5.8)%
West Texas Intermediate Oil Price (US$)
$59
$61
$70
$75
$46
$48
Forward-Looking Information Variables
Avg. Value over the
next 12 months
Avg. Value over the
remaining forecast
period
Avg. Value over the
next 12 months
Avg. Value over the
remaining forecast
period
Avg. Value over the
next 12 months
Avg. Value over the
remaining forecast
period
CIBC
As at January 31, 2021
Base Case
Base Case
Upside Case
Upside Case
Downside Case
Downside Case
Canadian GDP YOY Growth
4.0%
3.9%
6.0%
4.4%
2.5%
2.1%
US GDP YOY Growth
4.1%
3.2%
5.8%
4.5%
1.8%
1.9%
Canadian Unemployment Rate
7.8%
6.1%
7.3%
5.7%
8.6%
7.4%
US Unemployment Rate
5.9%
4.1%
4.5%
3.4%
7.4%
5.8%
Canadian Housing Price Index Growth
1.5%
3.2%
12.2%
10.2%
(9.9)%
0.3%
S&P 500 Index Growth Rate
5.0%
5.0%
13.0%
10.8%
(5.5)%
(2.9)%
West Texas Intermediate Oil Price (US$)
$50
$55
$54
$62
$41
$46
1 See pages 57 of the Q2/21 Quarterly Report for further details.
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