FY 2022 Results
Macroeconomic variables
Q422
Q422 Upside 2
Q422 Upside 1
Q422 Baseline
Q422 Downside 1
Q422 Downside 2
2023
2024
2025
2023
2024 2025
2023
2024 2025
2023
2024
2025
2023
2024
2025
UK GDP1
2.8%
3.7%
2.9%
1.0%
2.3%
2.4%
(0.8)% 0.9%
1.8%
(2.1)% (1.5)%
1.9%
(3.4)%
(3.8)%
2.0%
UK unemployment²
3.5%
3.4%
3.4%
4.0%
3.9%
3.8%
4.5%
4.4%
4.1%
5.2%
6.4%
6.0%
6.0%
8.4%
8.0%
UK HP13
8.7%
7.5%
4.4%
1.8%
2.9%
3.3% (4.7)%
(1.7)%
2.2%
(11.7)%
(10.6)% (2.8)%
(18.3)% (18.8)%
(7.7)%
UK Bank Rate
3.1%
2.6%
2.5%
3.5%
3.3%
3.0%
4.4%
4.1%
3.8%
5.9%
6.1%
5.3%
7.3%
7.9%
6.6%
US GDP1
3.3%
3.5%
2.8%
1.9%
2.3%
2.2%
0.5%
1.2%
1.5%
(1.1)%
(1.1)%
1.7%
(2.7)%
(3.4)%
2.0%
US unemployment4
3.3%
3.3%
3.3%
3.8%
4.0%
4.0%
4.3%
4.7%
4.7%
5.1%
6.6%
6.4%
6.0%
8.5%
8.1%
US HP15
5.8%
5.1%
4.5%
3.8%
3.3%
3.4%
1.8%
1.5%
2.3%
(0.7)%
(1.3)% 0.2%
(3.1)%
(4.0)%
(1.9)%
US Federal Funds Rate
3.6%
2.9%
2.8%
3.9%
3.4%
3.0%
4.8%
3.6%
3.1%
5.8%
5.4%
4.4%
6.6%
6.9%
5.8%
Scenario probability
weighting
10.9%
23.1%
39.4%
17.6%
9.0%
1 Average Real GDP seasonally adjusted change in year | 2 Average UK unemployment rate 16-year+ | 3 Change in year end UK HPI = Halifax All Houses, All Buyers index, relative to prior year end | 4 Average US civilian unemployment rate 16-year+ 15 Change in year end US HPI = FHFA
House Price Index, relative to prior year end |
27 | Barclays FY 2022 Results | 15 February 2023
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