Emirates NBD Financial Performance and Market Update
Appendix
Strategy
Financial & Operating Performance |
Emirates NBD Profile
Operating Environment
M bpd
UAE Economic Update
Highlights
•
Non-oil growth in the UAE appears to have accelerated in H1
2017, based on PMI survey data. However, OPEC's decision to
extend output cuts through Q1 2018 has led us to revise down our
projections for oil sector growth this year and next
As a result, we have downgraded our 2017 growth forecast to
2.0% from 3.4% previously. We expect Dubai to grow at a faster
rate than Abu Dhabi as it won't be as affected by lower oil output
The Emirates NBD Purchasing Managers' Index for the UAE rose
to 57.3 in August from 56.0 in July, signalling the sharpest
improvement in business conditions since February 2015.
Jordan
Lebanon
Tunisia
Oil Price and UAE oil production
3.2
3.0
2.8
2.6
2.4
2.2
2.0
Jan-13
Apr-13
Jul-13
Oct-13
Jan-14
Apr-14
Jul-14
Oct-14
Jan-15
Apr-15
Jul-15
Oct-15
Jan-16
Apr-16
UAE Oil Production (Ihs)
Source: Bloomberg, Emirates NBD Research
ICE Brent (rhs)
Jul-16
Oct-16
Jan-17
Apr-17
62.0
125
100
60.0
75
75
50
50
USD per barrel
58.0
56.0
25
54.0
Real GDP growth forecasts
Emirates NBD
2013
2014
2015
2016
2017F
2018F
S. Arabia
2.7
3.7
4.1
1.7
0.5
2.5
UAE
4.7
3.3
3.8
3.0
2.0
3.4
Qatar
4.0
3.5
3.3
2.0
2.5
3.5
Kuwait
1.1
0.5
1.8
2.1
-1.0
2.2
Oman
4.4
2.5
5.7
3.7
1.0
2.3
Bahrain
5.4
4.4
2.9
3.0
2.2
2.4
GCC (average)
3.3
3.2
3.8
2.3
1.1
2.8
Egypt
2.1
2.9
4.4
4.3
3.5
4.9
2.8
3.1
2.4
2.0
2.8
3.0
3.0
1.8
1.5
2.4
3.1
3.3
2.9
2.3
0.8
1.1
2.8
4.0
Morocco
MENA (average)
4.4
2.6
4.5
1.0
4.7
4.8
2.8
2.7
3.8
3.1
3.7
4.4
Source: Bloomberg, Emirates NBD Research
UAE PMI - Non oil private sector activity
0
52.0
50.0
Jan 15 Jun 15
Nov 15
Apr 16
Sep 16
Feb 17
Jul 17
Source: Markit / Emirates NBD
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