Investor Presentaiton
Market Outlook
2022 industry outlook for our home markets
KEY INDICATORS
2022 (f)
2021
•
GDP
6.0%
3.1%
System loan
4.9%
4.5%
OPR
2.00%
1.75%
Malaysia
USD/MYR
4.10
4.17
Inflation average
2.5%
2.5%
2022 (f)
2021
GDP
3.8%
7.6%
System loan
7.5% - 9.0%
7.4%
3M SIBOR
0.98%
0.44%
Singapore
v v
USD/SGD
1.30
1.35
Inflation average
3.6%
2.3%
2022 (f)
2021
GDP
5.4%
3.7%
System loan
6.5%
4.5%
Reference Rate
4.25%
Indonesia
USD/IDR
14,000
Inflation average
3.2%
3.50%
14,253
1.6%
.
.
OUTLOOK
Economic recovery expected to be firmer and broad-based on resumption of
business activities. Macro policy remains pro-growth with OPR expected to stay at
record-low of 1.75% with potential hike of 25 bps in 4Q 2022, while Budget 2022
remains expansionary for third consecutive year (budget deficit ≥6% of GDP).
• Loan growth is expected to pick up pace in line with the recovery in economic
activity, while NIM should stabilise and expand further if interest rates are hiked.
Economic recovery to broaden to consumer facing and travel-related services
and construction sector, while manufacturing momentum to moderate from last
year's high base. Rising inflation, on both cyclical and structural factors, is
expected to peak in 2Q 2022 before easing in the second half of the year.
• Improved loan growth prospects supported by accelerating vaccinations and
regional border re-openings. Rising interest rates are likely to drive NIM
expansion.
• Domestic demand expected to lead recovery in 2022 on the back of a higher
vaccination rate, improving consumer confidence, and rising investments driven
by the Electric Vehicle industry and infrastructure development.
.
Loan growth expected from higher demand for working capital and investment
as the economy reopens. While policy rate hike is expected, the extension of
loan restructuring period until March 2023 could potentially curb NIM expansion.
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